The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Profile of European radiotherapy departments contributing to the EORTC Radiation Oncology Group (ROG) in the 21st century.

PURPOSE: Since 1982, the Radiation Oncology Group of the EORTC (EORTC ROG) has pursued an extensive Quality Assurance (QA) program involving all centres actively participating in its clinical research. The first step is the evaluation of the structure and of the human, technical and organisational resources of the centres, to assess their ability to comply with the current requirements for high-tech radiotherapy (RT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A facility questionnaire (FQ) was developed in 1989 and adapted over the years to match the evolution of RT techniques. We report on the contents of the current FQ that was completed online by 98 active EORTC ROG member institutions from 19 countries, between December 2005 and October 2007. RESULTS: Similar to the data collected previously, large variations in equipment, staffing and workload between centres remain. Currently only 15 centres still use a Cobalt unit. All centres perform 3D Conformal RT, 79% of them can perform IMRT and 54% are able to deliver stereotactic RT. An external reference dosimetry audit (ERDA) was performed in 88% of the centres for photons and in 73% for electrons, but it was recent (<2 years) in only 74% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The use of the FQ helps maintain the minimum quality requirements within the EORTC ROG network: recommendations are made on the basis of the analysis of its results. The present analysis shows that modern RT techniques are widely implemented in the clinic but also that ERDA should be performed more frequently. Repeated assessment using the FQ is warranted to document the future evolution of the EORTC ROG institutions.

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in resected colon cancer: current status and future perspectives for integrating genomics into biomarker discovery.

The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

First description of Candida nivariensis in Brazil: antifungal susceptibility profile and potential virulence attributes

This study evaluated the antifungal susceptibility profile and the production of potential virulence attributes in a clinical strain of Candida nivariensis for the first time in Brazil, as identified by sequencing the internal transcribed spacer (ITS)1-5.8S-ITS2 region and D1/D2 domains of the 28S of the rDNA. For comparative purposes, tests were also performed with reference strains. All strains presented low planktonic minimal inhibitory concentrations (PMICs) to amphotericin B (AMB), caspofungin (CAS), and voriconazole. However, our strain showed elevated planktonic MICs to posaconazole (POS) and itraconazole, in addition to fluconazole resistance. Adherence to inert surfaces was conducted onto glass and polystyrene. The biofilm formation and antifungal susceptibility on biofilm-growing cells were evaluated by crystal violet staining and a XTT reduction assay. All fungal strains were able to bind both tested surfaces and form biofilm, with a binding preference to polystyrene (p < 0.001). AMB promoted significant reductions (≈50%) in biofilm production by our C. nivariensis strain using both methodologies. This reduction was also observed for CAS and POS, but only in the XTT assay. All strains were excellent protease producers and moderate phytase producers, but lipases were not detected. This study reinforces the pathogenic potential of C. nivariensis and its possible resistance profile to the azolic drugs generally used for candidiasis management.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

In vivo antileishmanial activity and chemical profile of polar extract from Selaginella sellowii

The polar hydroethanolic extract from Selaginella sellowii(SSPHE) has been previously proven active on intracellular amastigotes (in vitro test) and now was tested on hamsters infected with Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis (in vivo test). SSPHE suppressed a 100% of the parasite load in the infection site and draining lymph nodes at an intralesional dose of 50 mg/kg/day × 5, which was similar to the results observed in hamsters treated with N-methylglucamine antimonate (Sb) (28 mg/Kg/day × 5). When orally administered, SSPHE (50 mg/kg/day × 20) suppressed 99.2% of the parasite load in infected footpads, while Sb suppressed 98.5%. SSPHE also enhanced the release of nitric oxide through the intralesional route in comparison to Sb. The chemical fingerprint of SSPHE by high-performance liquid chromatography with diode-array detection and tandem mass spectrometry showed the presence of biflavonoids and high molecular weight phenylpropanoid glycosides. These compounds may have a synergistic action in vivo. Histopathological study revealed that the intralesional treatment with SSPHE induced an intense inflammatory infiltrate, composed mainly of mononuclear cells. The present findings reinforce the potential of this natural product as a source of future drug candidates for American cutaneous leishmaniasis.

Classification and clinical behavior of blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasms according to their maturation-associated immunophenotypic profile.

Blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm (BPDCN) is a rare subtype of leukemia/lymphoma, whose diagnosis can be difficult to achieve due to its clinical and biological heterogeneity, as well as its overlapping features with other hematologic malignancies. In this study we investigated whether the association between the maturational stage of tumor cells and the clinico-biological and prognostic features of the disease, based on the analysis of 46 BPDCN cases classified into three maturation-associated subgroups on immunophenotypic grounds. Our results show that blasts from cases with an immature plasmacytoid dendritic cell (pDC) phenotype exhibit an uncommon CD56- phenotype, coexisting with CD34+ non-pDC tumor cells, typically in the absence of extramedullary (e.g. skin) disease at presentation. Conversely, patients with a more mature blast cell phenotype more frequently displayed skin/extramedullary involvement and spread into secondary lymphoid tissues. Despite the dismal outcome, acute lymphoblastic leukemia-type therapy (with central nervous system prophylaxis) and/or allogeneic stem cell transplantation appeared to be the only effective therapies. Overall, our findings indicate that the maturational profile of pDC blasts in BPDCN is highly heterogeneous and translates into a wide clinical spectrum -from acute leukemia to mature lymphoma-like behavior-, which may also lead to variable diagnosis and treatment.

Detección de violencia contra la mujer en la consulta del médico de familia.

Objectives. To find out the magnitude of violence against female partners among patients who visit their family doctor. To study frequency and acceptance of its investigation by the family doctor and to assess the effectiveness of a screening question on abuse. Design. Descriptive, cross-sectional study. Setting. Primary care, 4 samples from 2 urban health centres in Jaén, Spain. Participants. Who participated 170 women randomly selected from the female consulting population. Measurements. Interviews by means of the Bradley modified test and the anxiety and depression Goldberg scales. Perceived health, frequency of detection of domestic violence, by the family doctor, and female opinions were also studied. Results. During the last year, abuse against women was detected in 22.9% of the female population consulting their family doctor (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 16.6-29.2). Abused women had a worse perception of health (odds ratio [OR] =4.2; 95% CI, 1.02-17.5) and a higher probability of depression (OR=4.7; 95% CI, 1.8-12.5) independently from the rest of variables. The question "How are the things going with your partner?" as a screening of abuse does obtain a positive probability quotient of 6.23 (95% CI, 3.6-10.9), a specificity of 89% and a negative predictive value of 90%. Of those interviewed, 96.5% would not mind if their family doctor approached the couple's relationships, a situation that occurs in 24.7% of cases. Conclusions. Some degree of abuse was detected in almost a quarter of women who consult their family doctor. Family doctors do not usually ask about family and partner relationships and environment, although for almost all women it is well appreciated and the item has an increased likelihood ratio and high negative predictive value in detecting abuse.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Comparison of T1 relaxation times of the neurochemical profile in rat brain at 9.4 tesla and 14.1 tesla.

Knowledge of T(1) relaxation times can be important for accurate relative and absolute quantification of brain metabolites, for sensitivity optimizations, for characterizing molecular dynamics, and for studying changes induced by various pathological conditions. (1)H T(1) relaxation times of a series of brain metabolites, including J-coupled ones, were determined using a progressive saturation (PS) technique that was validated with an adiabatic inversion-recovery (IR) method. The (1)H T(1) relaxation times of 16 functional groups of the neurochemical profile were measured at 14.1T and 9.4T. Overall, the T(1) relaxation times found at 14.1T were, within the experimental error, identical to those at 9.4T. The T(1)s of some coupled spin resonances of the neurochemical profile were measured for the first time (e.g., those of gamma-aminobutyrate [GABA], aspartate [Asp], alanine [Ala], phosphoethanolamine [PE], glutathione [GSH], N-acetylaspartylglutamate [NAAG], and glutamine [Gln]). Our results suggest that T(1) does not increase substantially beyond 9.4T. Furthermore, the similarity of T(1) among the metabolites (approximately 1.5 s) suggests that T(1) relaxation time corrections for metabolite quantification are likely to be similar when using rapid pulsing conditions. We therefore conclude that the putative T(1) increase of metabolites has a minimal impact on sensitivity when increasing B(0) beyond 9.4T.

Treatment of hepatitis C in HCV mono-infected and in HIV-HCV co-infected patients: an open-labelled comparison study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Treatment of chronic HCV infection has become a priority in HIV+ patients, given the faster progression to end-stage liver disease. The primary endpoint of this study was to evaluate and compare antiviral efficacy of Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin in HIV-HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected patients, and to examine whether 6 months of therapy would have the same efficacy in HIV patients with favourable genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients, to minimise HCV-therapy-related toxicities. Secondary endpoints were to evaluate predictors of sustained virological response (SVR) and frequency of side-effects. METHODS: Patients with genotypes 1 and 4 were treated for 48 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 1000-1200 mg/day according to body weight; patients with genotypes 2 and 3 for 24 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 800 mg/day. RESULTS: 132 patients were enrolled in the study: 85 HCV mono-infected (38: genotypes 1 and 4; 47: genotypes 2 and 3), 47 HIV-HCV co-infected patients (23: genotypes 1 and 4; 24: genotypes 2 and 3). In an intention-to-treat analysis, SVR for genotypes 1 and 4 was observed in 58% of HCV mono-infected and in 13% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.001). For genotypes 2 and 3, SVR was observed in 70% of HCV mono-infected and in 67% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.973). Undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 had a positive predictive value for SVR for mono-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.54-0.93) and of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.92) for genotypes 2 and 3. For co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3, the positive predictive value of SVR of undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 was 0.76 (95%CI, 0.50-0.93). Study not completed by 22 patients (36%): genotypes 1 and 4 and by 12 patients (17%): genotypes 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Genotypes 2 or 3 predict the likelihood of SVR in HCV mono-infected and in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. A 6-month treatment with Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin has the same efficacy in HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients. HCV-RNA negativity at 4 weeks has a positive predictive value for SVR. Aggressive treatment of adverse effects to avoid dose reduction, consent withdrawal or drop-out is crucial to increase the rate of SVR, especially when duration of treatment is 48 weeks. Sixty-one percent of HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 did not complete the study against 4% with genotypes 2 and 3.