New stakeholders, spaces and instruments of analysis in the context of energy relationships: Case studies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Implications of the serpentine phase transition on the behaviour of beryllium and lithium-boron of subducted ultramafic rocks

The Totalp-Platta-Malenco ophiolites in the Eastern Central Alps offer a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of Li, Be and B in ultramafic rocks in response to serpentinization and to progressive Alpine metamorphism. These units represent the remnants of a former ocean-continent transition that was intensely serpentinized during exposure on the Jurassic seafloor of the Ligurian Tethys. From north to the south, three isograd reactions (lizardite double right arrow antigorite + brucite; lizardite + talc double right arrow antigorite; lizardite + tremolite double right arrow antigorite + diopside) have been used to quantify the evolution of the light element content of metamorphic minerals. We determined the Li, Be and B concentrations in major silicate minerals from the ultramafic bodies of Totalp, Platta and Malenco by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Mantle minerals have Be concentrations (e.g. <0.001-0.009 mu g/g in olivine) similar to the metamorphic minerals that replace them (e.g. <0.001-0.016 mu g/g in serpentine). The mantle signature of Be is thus neither erased during seafloor alteration nor by progressive metamorphism from prehnite-pumpellyite to epidote-amphibolite facies. In contrast, the Li and B inventories of metamorphic minerals are related to the lizardite-to-antigorite transition. Both elements display higher concentrations in the low-temperature serpentine polymorph lizardite (max. 156 mu/g Li, max. 318 mu g/g B) than in antigorite (max. 0.11 mu g/g Li, max. 12 mu g/g B). Calculated average B/Li ratios for lizardite (similar to 1395) and antigorite (similar to 115) indicate that Li fractionates from B during the lizardite-to-antigorite transition during prograde metamorphism in ultramafic rocks. In subduction zones, this signature is likely to be recorded in the B-rich nature of forearc fluids. Relative to oceanic mantle the Be content of mantle clinopyroxene is much higher, but similar to Be values from mantle xenoliths and subduction-related peridotite massifs. These data support previous hypothesis that the mantle rocks from the Eastern Central Alps have a subcontinental origin. We conclude that Be behaves conservatively during subduction metamorphism of ultramafic rocks, at least at low-temperature, and thus retains the fingerprint of ancient subduction-related igneous events in mantle peridotites. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entrepreneur's Overconfidence, Private Benefits and the Market Performance of the Firm

Many firms around the world are managed and partially owned by entrepreneurs. These entrepreneurs hold under diversified portfolios and, therefore, bear idiosyncratic risk in addition to systematic risk. To compensate the additional risk borne, they extract private benefits. In this paper, we analyse how an entrepreneur's overconfidence affects the market performance of the firm, through the channel of private benefits. We show that two dimensions of overconfidence, namely overestimation of future cash-flows and underestimation of idiosyncratic risk (called miscalibration), have opposite effects on the private benefits extracted by the entrepreneur. As a consequence, firms managed and partially owned by overconfident entrepreneurs can deliver overperformance or underperformance, depending on the prevalence of overestimation or miscalibration of the beliefs of the entrepreneur.

Reaction-diffusion waves of advance in the transition to agricultural economics

In a previous paper [J.Fort and V.Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)], the possible importance of higher-order terms in a human population wave of advance has been studied. However, only a few such terms were considered. Here we develop a theory including all higher-order terms. Results are in good agreement with the experimental evidence involving the expansion of agriculture in Europe

The Effects of Expanding Ethanol Markets On Ethanol Production Feed Markets And the Iowa Economy, June 30 2001

Report produced by Iowa Departmment of Agriculture and Land Stewardship

Analysis and evaluation of techniques for the extraction of classes in the ontology learning process

This paper analyzes and evaluates, in the context of Ontology learning, some techniques to identify and extract candidate terms to classes of a taxonomy. Besides, this work points out some inconsistencies that may be occurring in the preprocessing of text corpus, and proposes techniques to obtain good terms candidate to classes of a taxonomy.

Y-chromosome diversity in native mexicans reveals continental transition of genetic structure in the Americas

The genetic characterization of Native Mexicans is important to understand multiethnic based features influencing the medical genetics of present Mexican populations, as well as to the reconstruct the peopling of the Americas. We describe the Y-chromosome genetic diversity of 197 Native Mexicans from 11 populations and 1,044 individuals from 44 Native American populations after combining with publicly available data. We found extensive heterogeneity among Native Mexican populations and ample segregation of Q-M242* (46%) and Q-M3 (54%) haplogroups within Mexico. The northernmost sampled populations falling outside Mesoamerica (Pima and Tarahumara) showed a clear differentiation with respect to the other populations, which is in agreement with previous results from mtDNA lineages. However, our results point toward a complex genetic makeup of Native Mexicans whose maternal and paternal lineages reveal different narratives of their population history, with sex-biased continental contributions and different admixture proportions. At a continental scale, we found that Arctic populations and the northernmost groups from North America cluster together, but we did not find a clear differentiation within Mesoamerica and the rest of the continent, which coupled with the fact that the majority of individuals from Central and South American samples are restricted to the Q-M3 branch, supports the notion that most Native Americans from Mesoamerica southwards are descendants from a single wave of migration. This observation is compatible with the idea that present day Mexico might have constituted an area of transition in the diversification of paternal lineages during the colonization of the Americas.

The political economy of childcare in OECD countries : Explaining cross-national variation in spending and coverage rates

If childcare policy has become topical in most OECD countries over the last ten years or so, actual developments display huge cross-national variations. Countries like Sweden and Denmark spend around 2 per cent of GDP on this service, and provide affordable childcare places to most children below school age. At the other extreme, in Southern Europe, only around 10 per cent of this age group has access to formal daycare. Against this background, this article aims to account for cross-national variations in childcare services. It distinguishes two dependent variables: the coverage rate and the proportion of GDP spent subsidising childcare services. Using a mix of cross-sectional and pooled times-series methods, it tests a series of hypotheses concerning the determinants of the development of this policy. Its main conclusion for the coverage rate is that key factors are public spending and wage dispersion (both positive). For spending, key factors are the proportion of women in parliaments (positive) and spending on age-related policies (negative).

Towards the automatic merging of language resources

Language Resources are a critical component for Natural Language Processing applications. Throughout the years many resources were manually created for the same task, but with different granularity and coverage information. To create richer resources for a broad range of potential reuses, nformation from all resources has to be joined into one. The hight cost of comparing and merging different resources by hand has been a bottleneck for merging existing resources. With the objective of reducing human intervention, we present a new method for automating merging resources. We have addressed the merging of two verbs subcategorization frame (SCF) lexica for Spanish. The results achieved, a new lexicon with enriched information and conflicting information signalled, reinforce our idea that this approach can be applied for other task of NLP.

Towards the Fully Automatic Merging of Lexical Resources: A Step Forward

This article reports on the results of the research done towards the fully automatically merging of lexical resources. Our main goal is to show the generality of the proposed approach, which have been previously applied to merge Spanish Subcategorization Frames lexica. In this work we extend and apply the same technique to perform the merging of morphosyntactic lexica encoded in LMF. The experiments showed that the technique is general enough to obtain good results in these two different tasks which is an important step towards performing the merging of lexical resources fully automatically.