960 resultados para Probability Metrics


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Background: RRP is a devastating disease in which papillomas in the airway cause hoarseness and breathing difficulty. The disease is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) 6 or 11 and is very variable. Patients undergo multiple surgeries to maintain a patent airway and in order to communicate vocally. Several small studies have been published in which most have noted that HPV 11 is associated with a more aggressive course. Methodology/Principal Findings: Papilloma biopsies were taken from patients undergoing surgical treatment of RRP and were subjected to HPV typing. 118 patients with juvenile-onset RRP with at least 1 year of clinical data and infected with a single HPV type were analyzed. HPV 11 was encountered in 40% of the patients. By our definition, most of the patients in the sample (81%) had run an aggressive course. The odds of a patient with HPV 11 running an aggressive course were 3.9 times higher than that of patients with HPV 6 (Fisher's exact p = 0.017). However, clinical course was more closely associated with age of the patient (at diagnosis and at the time of the current surgery) than with HPV type. Patients with HPV 11 were diagnosed at a younger age (2.4y) than were those with HPV 6 (3.4y) (p = 0.014). Both by multiple linear regression and by multiple logistic regression HPV type was only weakly associated with metrics of disease course when simultaneously accounting for age. Conclusions/Significance Abstract: The course of RRP is variable and a quarter of the variability can be accounted for by the age of the patient. HPV 11 is more closely associated with a younger age at diagnosis than it is associated with an aggressive clinical course. These data suggest that there are factors other than HPV type and age of the patient that determine disease course.

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Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is an important genetic property that populations should have whenever they are not observing adverse situations as complete lack of panmixia, excess of mutations, excess of selection pressure, etc. HWE for decades has been evaluated; both frequentist and Bayesian methods are in use today. While historically the HWE formula was developed to examine the transmission of alleles in a population from one generation to the next, use of HWE concepts has expanded in human diseases studies to detect genotyping error and disease susceptibility (association); Ryckman and Williams (2008). Most analyses focus on trying to answer the question of whether a population is in HWE. They do not try to quantify how far from the equilibrium the population is. In this paper, we propose the use of a simple disequilibrium coefficient to a locus with two alleles. Based on the posterior density of this disequilibrium coefficient, we show how one can conduct a Bayesian analysis to verify how far from HWE a population is. There are other coefficients introduced in the literature and the advantage of the one introduced in this paper is the fact that, just like the standard correlation coefficients, its range is bounded and it is symmetric around zero (equilibrium) when comparing the positive and the negative values. To test the hypothesis of equilibrium, we use a simple Bayesian significance test, the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST); see Pereira, Stern andWechsler (2008) for a complete review. The disequilibrium coefficient proposed provides an easy and efficient way to make the analyses, especially if one uses Bayesian statistics. A routine in R programs (R Development Core Team, 2009) that implements the calculations is provided for the readers.

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The identification of genetic markers associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may help to predict its development. Because reduced nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability and endothelial dysfunction are involved in CKD, genetic polymorphisms in the gene encoding the enzyme involved in NO synthesis (endothelial NO synthase [eNos]) may affect the susceptibility to CKD and the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We compared genotype and haplotype distributions of three relevant eNOS polymorphisms (T(-786) C in the promoter region, Glu298Asp in exon 7, and 4b/4a in intron 4) in 110 healthy control subjects and 127 ESRD patients. Genotypes for the T(-786) C and Glu298Asp polymorphisms were determined by TaqMan (R) Allele Discrimination assay and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes for the intron 4 polymorphism were determined by polymerase chain reaction and fragment separation by electrophoresis. The software program PHASE 2.1 was used to estimate the haplotypes frequencies. We considered significant a probability value of p < 0.05/number of haplotypes (p < 0.05/8 = 0.0063). We found no significant differences between groups with respect to age, ethnicity, and gender. CKD patients had higher blood pressure, total cholesterol, and creatinine levels than healthy control subjects (all p < 0.05). Genotype and allele distributions for the three eNOS polymorphisms were similar in both groups (p > 0.05). We found no significant differences in haplotype distribution between groups (p > 0.05). The lack of significant associations between eNOS polymorphisms and ESRD suggests that eNOS polymorphisms may not be relevant to the genetic component of CKD that leads to ESRD.

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The purpose of the present research was to investigate the effects of polymorphisms of luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR) and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) genes, evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism in European-Zebu composite beef heifers from six different breed compositions. The polymorphism site analysis from digestion with HhaI and AluI restriction endonucleases allowed the genotype identification for LHR (TT, CT and CC) and FSHR (GG, CG and CC) genes. A high frequency of heterozygous animals was recorded in all breed compositions for both genes, except in two compositions for LHR. The probability of pregnancy (PP) at first breeding was used to evaluate the polymorphism effect on sexual precocity. The PP was analyzed as a binary trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. Heterozygous heifers showed a higher pregnancy rate (67 and 66% for LHR and FSHR genes, respectively), but no significant effects were observed for the genes studied (P=0.9188 and 0.8831 for LHR and FSHR, respectively) on the PP. These results do not justify the inclusion of LHR and FSHR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers in selection programs for sexual precocity in beef heifers. Nevertheless, these markers make possible the genotype characterization and may be used in additional studies to evaluate the genetic structure in other bovine populations.

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Aims. In an earlier paper we introduced a new method for determining asteroid families where families were identified in the proper frequency domain (n, g, g + s) ( where n is the mean-motion, and g and s are the secular frequencies of the longitude of pericenter and nodes, respectively), rather than in the proper element domain (a, e, sin(i)) (semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination). Here we improve our techniques for reliably identifying members of families that interact with nonlinear secular resonances of argument other than g or g + s and for asteroids near or in mean-motion resonant configurations. Methods. We introduce several new distance metrics in the frequency space optimal for determining the diffusion in secular resonances of argument 2g - s, 3g - s, g - s, s, and 2s. We also regularize the dependence of the g frequency as a function of the n frequency (Vesta family) or of the eccentricity e (Hansa family). Results. Our new approaches allow us to recognize as family members objects that were lost with previous methods, while keeping the advantages of the Carruba & Michtchenko (2007, A& A, 475, 1145) approach. More important, an analysis in the frequency domain permits a deeper understanding of the dynamical evolution of asteroid families not always obtainable with an analysis in the proper element domain.

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Context. Observations in the cosmological domain are heavily dependent on the validity of the cosmic distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1+ z)(2)/D(A)(z) = 1, an exact result required by the Etherington reciprocity theorem where D(L)(z) and D(A)(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. In the limit of very small redshifts D(A)(z) = D(L)(z) and this ratio is trivially satisfied. Measurements of Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-rays combined with the DD relation have been used to determine D(A)(z) from galaxy clusters. This combination offers the possibility of testing the validity of the DD relation, as well as determining which physical processes occur in galaxy clusters via their shapes. Aims. We use WMAP (7 years) results by fixing the conventional Lambda CDM model to verify the consistence between the validity of DD relation and different assumptions about galaxy cluster geometries usually adopted in the literature. Methods. We assume that. is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z/(1+z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we consider the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical (isothermal) and spherical (non-isothermal) beta models. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. It was found that the elliptical beta model is in good agreement with the data, showing no violation of the DD relation (PDF peaked close to eta(0) = 0 at 1 sigma), while the spherical (non-isothermal) one is only marginally compatible at 3 sigma. Conclusions. The present results derived by combining the SZE and X-ray surface brightness data from galaxy clusters with the latest WMAP results (7-years) favors the elliptical geometry for galaxy clusters. It is remarkable that a local property like the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument provided by the cosmic DD relation.

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Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

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Aims. In this work, we describe the pipeline for the fast supervised classification of light curves observed by the CoRoT exoplanet CCDs. We present the classification results obtained for the first four measured fields, which represent a one-year in-orbit operation. Methods. The basis of the adopted supervised classification methodology has been described in detail in a previous paper, as is its application to the OGLE database. Here, we present the modifications of the algorithms and of the training set to optimize the performance when applied to the CoRoT data. Results. Classification results are presented for the observed fields IRa01, SRc01, LRc01, and LRa01 of the CoRoT mission. Statistics on the number of variables and the number of objects per class are given and typical light curves of high-probability candidates are shown. We also report on new stellar variability types discovered in the CoRoT data. The full classification results are publicly available.

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We analyze the interaction between dark energy and dark matter from a thermodynamical perspective. By assuming they have different temperatures, we study the possibility of occurring a decay from dark matter into dark energy, characterized by a negative parameter Q. We find that, if at least one of the fluids has nonvanishing chemical potential, for instance mu(x)< 0 and mu(dm)=0 or mu(x)=0 and mu(dm)> 0, the decay is possible, where mu(x) and mu(dm) are the chemical potentials of dark energy and dark matter, respectively. Using recent cosmological data, we find that, for a fairly simple interaction, the dark matter decay is favored with a probability of similar to 93% over the dark energy decay. This result comes from a likelihood analysis where only background evolution has been considered.

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By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

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We analyze the irreversibility and the entropy production in nonequilibrium interacting particle systems described by a Fokker-Planck equation by the use of a suitable master equation representation. The irreversible character is provided either by nonconservative forces or by the contact with heat baths at distinct temperatures. The expression for the entropy production is deduced from a general definition, which is related to the probability of a trajectory in phase space and its time reversal, that makes no reference a priori to the dissipated power. Our formalism is applied to calculate the heat conductance in a simple system consisting of two Brownian particles each one in contact to a heat reservoir. We show also the connection between the definition of entropy production rate and the Jarzynski equality.

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We show a function that fits well the probability density of return times between two consecutive visits of a chaotic trajectory to finite size regions in phase space. It deviates from the exponential statistics by a small power-law term, a term that represents the deterministic manifestation of the dynamics. We also show how one can quickly and easily estimate the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and the short-term correlation function by realizing observations of high probable returns. Our analyses are performed numerically in the Henon map and experimentally in a Chua's circuit. Finally, we discuss how our approach can be used to treat the data coming from experimental complex systems and for technological applications. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3263943]

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In random matrix theory, the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution describes the behavior of the largest eigenvalue. We consider here two models in which TW undergoes transformations. In the first one disorder is introduced in the Gaussian ensembles by superimposing an external source of randomness. A competition between TW and a normal (Gaussian) distribution results, depending on the spreading of the disorder. The second model consists of removing at random a fraction of (correlated) eigenvalues of a random matrix. The usual formalism of Fredholm determinants extends naturally. A continuous transition from TW to the Weilbull distribution, characteristic of extreme values of an uncorrelated sequence, is obtained.

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Magnetoresistance of two-dimensional electron systems with several occupied subbands oscillates owing to periodic modulation of the probability of intersubband transitions by the quantizing magnetic field. In addition to previous investigations of these magnetointersubband (MIS) oscillations in two-subband systems, we report on both experimental and theoretical studies of such a phenomenon in three-subband systems realized in triple quantum wells. We show that the presence of more than two subbands leads to a qualitatively different MIS oscillation picture, described as a superposition of several oscillating contributions. Under a continuous microwave irradiation, the magnetoresistance of triple-well systems exhibits an interference of MIS oscillations and microwave-induced resistance oscillations. The theory explaining these phenomena is presented in the general form, valid for an arbitrary number of subbands. A comparison of theory and experiment allows us to extract temperature dependence of quantum lifetime of electrons and to confirm the applicability of the inelastic mechanism of microwave photoresistance for the description of magnetotransport in multilayer systems.

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We construct a nonrelativistic wave equation for spinning particles in the noncommutative space (in a sense, a theta modification of the Pauli equation). To this end, we consider the nonrelativistic limit of the theta-modified Dirac equation. To complete the consideration, we present a pseudoclassical model (a la Berezin-Marinov) for the corresponding nonrelativistic particle in the noncommutative space. To justify the latter model, we demonstrate that its quantization leads to the theta-modified Pauli equation. We extract theta-modified interaction between a nonrelativistic spin and a magnetic field from such a Pauli equation and construct a theta modification of the Heisenberg model for two coupled spins placed in an external magnetic field. In the framework of such a model, we calculate the probability transition between two orthogonal Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen states for a pair of spins in an oscillatory magnetic field and show that some of such transitions, which are forbidden in the commutative space, are possible due to the space noncommutativity. This allows us to estimate an upper bound on the noncommutativity parameter.