Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Hyper-Automaton: avaliação interativa de alunos em cursos na WEB baseado em autômatos finitos

O objetivo desta dissertação é a elaboração de uma técnica da aplicação do formalismo de Autômatos Finitos com Saída (Máquina de Mealy e Máquina de Moore) como um modelo estrutural para a organização de hiperdocumentos instrucionais, em destacar especial, Avaliação e Exercício. Esse objetivo é motivado pela organização e agilização do processo de avaliação proporcionado ao professor e ao aluno. Existem diferentes técnicas de ensino utilizadas na Internet, algumas dessas continuam sendo projetadas com o uso de metodologias tradicionais de desenvolvimento, outras têm a capacidade de modelar de forma integrada e consistente alguns aspectos necessários para uma aplicação WEB. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, foram realizadas pesquisas nas várias áreas abrangidas pelo tema em evidência, tanto relativo ao processo tradicional (aplicação de prova utilizando metodologia tradicional), como o desenvolvimento de software mediado por computador e uso da Internet em si. A modelagem de desenvolvimento para Internet deve integrar características de técnicas de projeto de sistemas de hipermídia devido à natureza hipertextual da Internet. O uso de hiperdocumento como autômatos com saída está na forma básica de representação de hipertexto, em que cada fragmento de informação é associado a um nodo ou a um link (estado/transições) do grafo. Sendo assim, os arcos direcionados representam relacionamentos entre os nodos ou links, ou seja, uma passagem do nodo origem para o nodo destino. As n-uplas dos autômatos apresentam uma correspondência as estruturas de hiperdocumentos na WEB, seu estado/transição inicial corresponde a sua primeira página e suas transições definidas na função programa, funcionam como ligações lógicas, quando selecionadas durante a navegação do hipertexto. Entretanto, faz-se necessário um levantamento dos modelos de hipertextos e das ferramentas de implementação disponíveis para a Internet, a fim de que seja capaz de suportar as peculiaridades do ambiente. Tudo isso deve ser integrado preferencialmente em um paradigma de desenvolvimento amplamente aceito, para que os projetistas não tenham muitas dificuldades em assimilar os conceitos propostos. A proposta apresentada nesta dissertação, batizada de Hyper-Automaton (hipertexto e autômato), consiste na integração de um Curso na WEB, utilizando formalismo de Autômatos Finitos com Saída para a modelagem dos conceitos necessários e definição das fases adequadas para completar a especificação de Sistema Exercício e Avaliação, bem como a especificação da Geração Automática dos Exercícios e Avaliações baseadas em autômatos para a WEB. Os modelos criados abrangem conceitos de Máquina de Mealy, Máquina de Moore e Aplicações de Hiperdocumentos e Ferramentas de Programação para Internet, os mesmos já testados em caso real. Os parâmetros apurados, nos testes, serviram a uma seqüência de etapas importantes para modelar e complementar a especificação do sistema projetado. Com os parâmetros e etapas de modelagem, a metodologia Hyper-Automaton consegue integrar, de forma consistente, as vantagens de várias técnicas específicas de modelagem de documentos e sistemas de hipermídia. Essas vantagens, aliadas ao suporte às ferramentas de desenvolvimento para Internet, garantem que a metodologia fique adequada para a modelagem de Sistemas com aplicação de métodos de autômatos para exercícios e avaliação na WEB.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Kinetics of cellular component in inflammatory response induced by different stimuli in the swim bladder of pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg 1887 (Characidae)

The present study assessed the kinetics of cell accumulation at the site of inflammation induced by thioglycolate, Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and heat-inactivated Aeromonas hydrophila, in the pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus (Characidae), swim bladder. A quantitative, as well as qualitative, assessment was done of all the cells present in the exudate at 6, 24, and 48 h (n = 8) after inoculation of inflammatory agents. The results show that the thioglycolate was the irritant to induce higher total inflammatory cell accumulation when compared to the control group, 6 h after insult (P < 0.05). Inoculation of heat-inactivated Aeromonas hydrophila induced progressive accumulation of total inflammatory cells, with cell number peaking after 24 h and being significantly higher than observed in the other groups (P < 0.05). Injection of LPS also induced greater cell accumulation when compared to the control group (P < 0.05), although in lower numbers than those induced by the other two irritants. All irritants injected induced significantly greater accumulation of lymphocytes and thrombocytes when compared to the control group (P < 0.05).

Humoral and cellular immune response generated by different vaccine programs before and after Salmonella Enteritidis challenge in chickens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cellular and molecular characterization of an embryonic cell line (BME26) from the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

The cellular and molecular characteristics of a cell line (BME26) derived from embryos of the cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus were studied. The cells contained glycogen inclusions, numerous mitochondria, and vesicles with heterogeneous electron densities dispersed throughout the cytoplasm. Vesicles contained lipids and sequestered palladium meso-porphyrin (Pd-mP) and rhodamine-hemoglobin, suggesting their involvement in the autophagic and endocytic pathways. The cells phagocytosed yeast and expressed genes encoding the antimicrobial peptides (microplusin and defensin). A cDNA library was made and 898 unique mRNA sequences were obtained. Among them, 556 sequences were not significantly similar to any sequence found in public databases. Annotation using Gene Ontology revealed transcripts related to several different functional classes. We identified transcripts involved in immune response such as ferritin, serine proteases, protease inhibitors,. antimicrobial peptides, heat shock protein, glutathione S-transferase, peroxidase, and NADPH oxidase. BME26 cells transfected with a plasmid carrying a red fluorescent protein reporter gene (DsRed2) transiently expressed DsRed2 for up to 5 weeks. We conclude that BME26 can be used to experimentally analyze diverse biological processes that occur in R. (B.) microplus such as the innate immune response to tick-borne pathogens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Beam Search Method to Solve the Problem of Assignment Cells to Switches in a Cellular Mobile Network

Assigning cells to switches in a cellular mobile network is known as an NP-hard optimization problem. This means that the alternative for the solution of this type of problem is the use of heuristic methods, because they allow the discovery of a good solution in a very satisfactory computational time. This paper proposes a Beam Search method to solve the problem of assignment cell in cellular mobile networks. Some modifications in this algorithm are also presented, which allows its parallel application. Computational results obtained from several tests confirm the effectiveness of this approach and provide good solutions for large scale problems.