Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Fair and efficient student placement with couples

We study situations of allocating positions or jobs to students or workers based on priorities. An example is the assignment of medical students to hospital residencies on the basis of one or several entrance exams. For markets without couples, e.g., for ``undergraduate student placement,'' acyclicity is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a fair and efficient placement mechanism (Ergin, 2002). We show that in the presence of couples, which introduces complementarities into the students' preferences, acyclicity is still necessary, but not sufficient (Theorem 4.1). A second necessary condition (Theorem 4.2) is ``priority-togetherness'' of couples. A priority structure that satisfies both necessary conditions is called pt-acyclic. For student placement problems where all quotas are equal to one we characterize pt-acyclicity (Lemma 5.1) and show that it is a sufficient condition for the existence of a fair and efficient placement mechanism (Theorem 5.1). If in addition to pt-acyclicity we require ``reallocation-'' and ``vacancy-fairness'' for couples, the so-called dictator-bidictator placement mechanism is the unique fair and efficient placement mechanism (Theorem 5.2). Finally, for general student placement problems, we show that pt-acyclicity may not be sufficient for the existence of a fair and efficient placement mechanism (Examples 5.4, 5.5, and 5.6). We identify a sufficient condition such that the so-called sequential placement mechanism produces a fair and efficient allocation (Theorem 5.3).

Notas de ixodologia: V - A propósito da validade de algumas espécies do gênero Amblyomma do continente americano (Acari: Ixodídoe)

a) The species Amblyomma tapiri Tonelli Rondelli, 1937 and Amblyomma finitimum Tonelli Rondelli, 1937 are synonymous with Amblyomma cajennense Fabricius, 1787. Both species are based in differences of size, colour, punctations and form of the dorsal shield, presence or absence of ventral plates, size, form and direction of the spine of coxa IV. Such differences prouved to be only variations frequently observed in large lots or in cultures of Amblyomma cajennense. The revalidation of Koch's species Amblyomma tenellum Koch, 1844 and Amblyomma mixtum Koch, 1844 proposed by TONELLI RONDELLI as also of Amblyomma sculptum Berlese, 1888 and Amblyomma versicolor Nuttal et Warburton, 1908 cannot be accepted by the same reasons. b) Amblyomma beccari Tonelli Rondelli, 1939 and Amblyomma latepunctatum Tonelli Rondelli, 1939 are cospecific with Amblyomma scalpturatum Neumann, 1899 the same being true for Amblyomma myrmecophagium Schulze, 1935 and for Amblyomma brasiliense var. guianense Floch et Abonnenc, 1940, as previously stated. c) Amblyomma tasquei Floch et Abonnenc, 1940 is a good species but synonym with Amblyomma romitii Tonelli Rondelli, 1939 which has priority. d) Amblyomma curruca Schulze, 1936 is a synonym of Amblyomma parvum Aragão, 1908. e) Amblyomma deminutivum Neumann, 1899 represents a variation of Amblyomma dissimile Koch, 1844, a species whose internal spine of coxa IV may be poorly developed or even absent. f) Amblyomma nigrum Tonelli Rondelli, 1939 prouved to be synonym with Amblyomma paccae Aragao, 1911 the type representing a blackish specimen of the later species. g) Amblyomma brimonti Neumann, 1913 is a synonym of Amblyomma humerale Koch, 1844.

Constrained school choice

Recently, several school districts in the US have adopted or consider adopting the Student-Optimal Stable Mechanism or the Top Trading Cycles Mechanism to assign children to public schools. There is clear evidence that for school districts that employ (variants of) the so-called Boston Mechanism the transition would lead to efficiency gains. The first two mechanisms are strategy-proof, but in practice student assignment procedures impede students to submit a preference list that contains all their acceptable schools. Therefore, any desirable property of the mechanisms is likely toget distorted. We study the non trivial preference revelation game where students can only declare up to a fixed number (quota) of schools to be acceptable. We focus on the stability of the Nash equilibrium outcomes. Our main results identify rather stringent necessary and sufficient conditions on the priorities to guaranteestability. This stands in sharp contrast with the Boston Mechanism which yields stable Nash equilibrium outcomes, independently of the quota. Hence, the transition to any of the two mechanisms is likely to come with a higher risk that students seek legal actionas lower priority students may occupy more preferred schools.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 2 - Attempts to upgrade the reliability and the efficacy of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas' disease

In order to upgrade the reliability of xenodiagnosis, attention has been directed towards population dynamics of the parasite, with particular interest for the following factors: 1. Parasite density which by itself is not a research objective, but by giving an accurate portrayal of parasite development and multiplication, has been incorporated in screening of bugs for xenodiagnosis. 2. On the assumption that food availability might increase parasite density, bugs from xenodiagnosis have been refed at biweekly intervals on chicken blood. 3. Infectivity rates and positives harbouring large parasite yields were based on gut infections, in which the parasite population comprised of all developmental forms was more abundant and easier to detect than in fecal infections, thus minimizing the probability of recording false negatives. 4. Since parasite density, low in the first 15 days of infection, increases rapidly in the following 30 days, the interval of 45 days has been adopted for routine examination of bugs from xenodiagnosis. By following the enumerated measures, all aiming to reduce false negative cases, we are getting closer to a reliable xenodiagnostic procedure. Upgrading the efficacy of xenodiagnosis is also dependent on the xenodiagnostic agent. Of 9 investigated vector species, Panstrongylus megistus deserves top priority as a xenodiagnostic agent. Its extraordinary capability to support fast development and vigorous multiplication of the few parasites, ingested from the host with chronic Chagas' disease, has been revealed by the strikingly close infectivity rates of 91.2% vs. 96.4% among bugs engorged from the same host in the chronic and acute phase of the disease respectively (Table V), the latter comporting an estimated number of 12.3 x 10[raised to the power of 3] parasites in the circulation at the time of xenodiagnosis, as reported previously by the authors (1982).

Coupling and monotonicity of queueing processes

The main purpose of this work is to give a survey of main monotonicity properties of queueing processes based on the coupling method. The literature on this topic is quite extensive, and we do not consider all aspects of this topic. Our more concrete goal is to select the most interesting basic monotonicity results and give simple and elegant proofs. Also we give a few new (or revised) proofs of a few important monotonicity properties for the queue-size and workload processes both in single-server and multi- server systems. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 1, the basic notions and results on coupling method are given. Section 2 contains known coupling results for renewal processes with focus on construction of synchronized renewal instants for a superposition of independent renewal processes. In Section 3, we present basic monotonicity results for the queue-size and workload processes. We consider both discrete-and continuous-time queueing systems with single and multi servers. Less known results on monotonicity of queueing processes with dependent service times and interarrival times are also presented. Section 4 is devoted to monotonicity of general Jackson-type queueing networks with Markovian routing. This section is based on the notable paper [17]. Finally, Section 5 contains elements of stability analysis of regenerative queues and networks, where coupling and monotonicity results play a crucial role to establish minimal suficient stability conditions. Besides, we present some new monotonicity results for tandem networks.

Aplicaciones Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) en ambientes distribuidos

Un reto al ejecutar las aplicaciones en un cluster es lograr mejorar las prestaciones utilizando los recursos de manera eficiente, y este reto es mayor al utilizar un ambiente distribuido. Teniendo en cuenta este reto, se proponen un conjunto de reglas para realizar el cómputo en cada uno de los nodos, basado en el análisis de cómputo y comunicaciones de las aplicaciones, se analiza un esquema de mapping de celdas y un método para planificar el orden de ejecución, tomando en consideración la ejecución por prioridad, donde las celdas de fronteras tienen una mayor prioridad con respecto a las celdas internas. En la experimentación se muestra el solapamiento del computo interno con las comunicaciones de las celdas fronteras, obteniendo resultados donde el Speedup aumenta y los niveles de eficiencia se mantienen por encima de un 85%, finalmente se obtiene ganancias de los tiempos de ejecución, concluyendo que si se puede diseñar un esquemas de solapamiento que permita que la ejecución de las aplicaciones SPMD en un cluster se hagan de forma eficiente.

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock: 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to the original Surviving Sepsis Campaign clinical management guidelines, "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock," published in 2004. DESIGN: Modified Delphi method with a consensus conference of 55 international experts, several subsequent meetings of subgroups and key individuals, teleconferences, and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee. This process was conducted independently of any industry funding. METHODS: We used the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations. A strong recommendation (1) indicates that an intervention's desirable effects clearly outweigh its undesirable effects (risk, burden, cost) or clearly do not. Weak recommendations (2) indicate that the tradeoff between desirable and undesirable effects is less clear. The grade of strong or weak is considered of greater clinical importance than a difference in letter level of quality of evidence. In areas without complete agreement, a formal process of resolution was developed and applied. Recommendations are grouped into those directly targeting severe sepsis, recommendations targeting general care of the critically ill patient that are considered high priority in severe sepsis, and pediatric considerations. RESULTS: Key recommendations, listed by category, include early goal-directed resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 hrs after recognition (1C); blood cultures before antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm potential source of infection (1C); administration of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy within 1 hr of diagnosis of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1D); reassessment of antibiotic therapy with microbiology and clinical data to narrow coverage, when appropriate (1C); a usual 7-10 days of antibiotic therapy guided by clinical response (1D); source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method (1C); administration of either crystalloid or colloid fluid resuscitation (1B); fluid challenge to restore mean circulating filling pressure (1C); reduction in rate of fluid administration with rising filing pressures and no improvement in tissue perfusion (1D); vasopressor preference for norepinephrine or dopamine to maintain an initial target of mean arterial pressure > or = 65 mm Hg (1C); dobutamine inotropic therapy when cardiac output remains low despite fluid resuscitation and combined inotropic/vasopressor therapy (1C); stress-dose steroid therapy given only in septic shock after blood pressure is identified to be poorly responsive to fluid and vasopressor therapy (2C); recombinant activated protein C in patients with severe sepsis and clinical assessment of high risk for death (2B except 2C for postoperative patients). In the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage, target a hemoglobin of 7-9 g/dL (1B); a low tidal volume (1B) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure strategy (1C) for acute lung injury (ALI)/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure in acute lung injury (1C); head of bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); avoiding routine use of pulmonary artery catheters in ALI/ARDS (1A); to decrease days of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay, a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ALI/ARDS who are not in shock (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation/analgesia (1B); using either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation with daily interruptions or lightening (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers, if at all possible (1B); institution of glycemic control (1B), targeting a blood glucose < 150 mg/dL after initial stabilization (2C); equivalency of continuous veno-veno hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1A); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding using H2 blockers (1A) or proton pump inhibitors (1B); and consideration of limitation of support where appropriate (1D). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include greater use of physical examination therapeutic end points (2C); dopamine as the first drug of choice for hypotension (2C); steroids only in children with suspected or proven adrenal insufficiency (2C); and a recommendation against the use of recombinant activated protein C in children (1B). CONCLUSIONS: There was strong agreement among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best current care of patients with severe sepsis. Evidenced-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the first step toward improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers.

Many studies based on either an experimental or an epidemiological approach, have shown that the ability to drive is impaired when the driver is under the influence of cannabis. Baseline performances of heavy users remain impaired even after several weeks of abstinence. Symptoms of cannabis abuse and dependence are generally considered incompatible with safe driving. Recently, it has been shown that traffic safety can be increased by reporting the long-term unfit drivers to the driver licensing authorities and referring the cases for further medical assessment. Evaluation of the frequency of cannabis use is a prerequisite for a reliable medical assessment of the fitness to drive. In a previous paper we advocated the use of two thresholds based on 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) concentration in whole blood to help to distinguish occasional cannabis users (≤3μg/L) from heavy regular smokers (≥40μg/L). These criteria were established on the basis of results obtained in a controlled cannabis smoking study with placebo, carried out with two groups of young male volunteers; the first group was characterized by a heavy use (≥10 joints/month) while the second group was made up of occasional users smoking at most 1 joint/week. However, to date, these cutoffs have not been adequately assessed under real conditions. Their validity can now be evaluated and confirmed with 146 traffic offenders' real cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use are known. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). Thus, we propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: if the whole blood THCCOOH concentration is higher than 40μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THCCOOH concentration is lower than 3μg/L and if the self-rated frequency of cannabis use is less than 1 time/week. A THCCOOH level between these two thresholds cannot be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow-up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Manejo de históricos en clusters

CISNE es un sistema de cómputo en paralelo del Departamento de Arquitectura de Computadores y Sistemas Operativos (DACSO). Para poder implementar políticas de ordenacción de colas y selección de trabajos, este sistema necesita predecir el tiempo de ejecución de las aplicaciones. Con este trabajo se pretende proveer al sistema CISNE de un método para predecir el tiempo de ejecución basado en un histórico donde se almacenarán todos los datos sobre las ejecuciones.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Models de simulació per coordinar serveis d'emergència

El projecte exposat té com a propòsit definir i implementar un model de simulació basat en la coordinació i assignació dels serveis d’emergència en accidents de trànsit. La definició del model s’ha realitzat amb l’ús de les Xarxes de Petri Acolorides i la implementació amb el software Rockwell Arena 7.0. El modelatge de la primera simulació ens mostra un model teòric basat en cues mentre que el segon, mostra un model més complet i real gràcies a la connexió mitjançant la plataforma Corba a una base de dades amb informació geogràfica de les flotes i de les rutes. Com a resultat de l’estudi i amb l’ajuda de GoogleEarth, podem realitzar simulacions gràfiques per veure els accidents generats, les flotes dels serveis i el moviment dels vehicles des de les bases fins als accidents.

Aplicació de la termoquimiolisi - cromatografia de gasos - espectrometria de masses a l'estudi de la matèria orgànica del sòl

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la Université de Poitiers, França, entre 2007 i 2009. El treball s'ha centrat en dues activitats bàsiques. El treball realitzat s’ha centrat en dues activitats bàsiques. D’una banda, la posada a punt d'un protocol de fraccionament de la matèria orgànica del sòl, per extraccions successives amb solvents alcalins després d'una seqüència de pretractaments al sòl: cap pretractament, atac amb àcid (per destruir els carbonats), atac amb ditionit (per reduir els òxids de Fe i Al i facilitar l'extracció de la matèria orgànica associada a aquests compostos). El protocol dóna una visió de conjunt de la situació de la matèria orgànica del sòl, combinant aspectes físics (protecció, precipitació, oclusió per carbonats) i químics (grau d'humificació). D’altra banda, l'aprenentatge de la tècnica de termoquimiolisi-cromatografia de gasos-espectrometria de masses. Aquest era l'objectiu de l'estada a Poitiers, al qual hem donat prioritat. Ens hem centrat en l'estudi de fraccions físiques (densimètriques) obtingudes en estudis anteriors sobre sòls forestals. Les fraccions considerades són: fracció lleugera (FL), tres fraccions ocluïdes (OC1, OC2 i OC3) i fracció densa (FD). L’aplicació de la termoquimiolisi permet de caracteritzar diversos grups de substàncies, de les quals ens hem centrat en alguns indicadors bioquímics: àcids grasos, alcohols, diàcids, productes fenòlics i altres productes aromàtics, derivats de carbohidrats. L’estudi de conjunt d’aquests productes indica que és a les fraccions ocluïdes (que solen ser minoritàries a tots els horitzons) on la matèria orgànica d’origen microbià és dominant, mentre que a les fraccions lleugera (FL) i densa (FD) la matèria orgànica d’origen vegetal sembla dominant. Es preveu aplicar aquesta tècnica a l’estudi de les fraccions obtingudes a la primera part del treball, actualment congelades i a l’espera de ser processades.

High-throughput hydrophilic interaction chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry for the optimized quantification of the anti-Gram-negatives antibiotic colistin A/B and its pro-drug colistimethate.

Colistin is a last resort's antibacterial treatment in critically ill patients with multi-drug resistant Gram-negative infections. As appropriate colistin exposure is the key for maximizing efficacy while minimizing toxicity, individualized dosing optimization guided by therapeutic drug monitoring is a top clinical priority. Objective of the present work was to develop a rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of colistin plasma concentrations. This novel methodology validated according to international standards simultaneously quantifies the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B, plus the pro-drug colistin methanesulfonate (colistimethate, CMS). 96-well micro-Elution SPE on Oasis Hydrophilic-Lipophilic-Balanced (HLB) followed by direct analysis by Hydrophilic Interaction Liquid Chromatography (HILIC) with Ethylene Bridged Hybrid - BEH - Amide phase column coupled to tandem mass spectrometry allows a high-throughput with no significant matrix effect. The technique is highly sensitive (limit of quantification 0.014 and 0.006μg/mL for colistin A and B), precise (intra-/inter-assay CV 0.6-8.4%) and accurate (intra-/inter-assay deviation from nominal concentrations -4.4 to +6.3%) over the clinically relevant analytical range 0.05-20μg/mL. Colistin A and B in plasma and whole blood samples are reliably quantified over 48h at room temperature and at +4°C (<6% deviation from nominal values) and after three freeze-thaw cycles. Colistimethate acidic hydrolysis (1M H2SO4) to colistin A and B in plasma was completed in vitro after 15min of sonication while the pro-drug hydrolyzed spontaneously in plasma ex vivo after 4h at room temperature: this information is of utmost importance for interpretation of analytical results. Quantification is precise and accurate when using serum, citrated or EDTA plasma as biological matrix, while use of heparin plasma is not appropriate. This new analytical technique providing optimized quantification in real-life conditions of the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B offers a highly efficient tool for routine therapeutic drug monitoring aimed at individualizing drug dosing against life-threatening infections.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.