Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future.

Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

Idealized SST anomaly regional climate model experiments: a note of caution

To date, a number of studies have focused on the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on global and regional rainfall variability, with the majority of these focusing on certain ocean basins e.g. the Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian Ocean. In contrast, relatively less work has been done on the influence of the central South Atlantic, particularly in relation to rainfall over southern Africa. Previous work by the authors, using reanalysis data and general circulation model (GCM) experiments, has suggested that cold SST anomalies in the central southern Atlantic Ocean are linked to an increase in rainfall extremes across southern Africa. In this paper we present results from idealised regional climate model (RCM) experiments forced with both positive and negative SST anomalies in the southern Atlantic Ocean. These experiments reveal an unexpected response of rainfall over southern Africa. In particular it was found that SST anomalies of opposite sign can cause similar rainfall responses in the model experiments, with isolated increases in rainfall over central southern Africa as well as a large region of drying over the Mozambique Channel. The purpose of this paper is to highlight this finding and explore explanations for the behaviour of the climate model. It is suggested that the observed changes in rainfall might result from the redistribution of energy (associated with upper level changes to Rossby waves) or, of more concern, model error, and therefore the paper concludes that the results of idealised regional climate models forced with SST anomalies should be viewed cautiously.

Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change

In response to increasing atmospheric con- centrations of greenhouse gases, the rate of time- dependent climate change is determined jointly by the strength of climate feedbacks and the e�ciency of pro- cesses which remove heat from the surface into the deep ocean. This work examines the vertical heat transport processes in the ocean of the HADCM2 atmosphere± ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) in experi- ments with CO2 held constant (control) and increasing at 1% per year (anomaly). The control experiment shows that global average heat exchanges between the upper and lower ocean are dominated by the Southern Ocean, where heat is pumped downwards by the wind- driven circulation and di�uses upwards along sloping isopycnals. This is the reverse of the low-latitude balance used in upwelling±di�usion ocean models, the global average upward di�usive transport being against the temperature gradient. In the anomaly experiment, weakened convection at high latitudes leads to reduced diffusive and convective heat loss from the deep ocean, and hence to net heat uptake, since the advective heat input is less a�ected. Reduction of deep water produc- tion at high latitudes results in reduced upwelling of cold water at low latitudes, giving a further contribution to net heat uptake. On the global average, high-latitude processes thus have a controlling in¯uence. The impor- tant role of di�usion highlights the need to ensure that the schemes employed in AOGCMs give an accurate representation of the relevant sub-grid-scale processes.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

Climate model calculations of the impact of aerosols from road transport and shipping

Road transport and shipping are copious sources of aerosols, which exert a 9 significant radiative forcing, compared to, for example, the CO2 emitted by these sectors. An 10 advanced atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to a mixed-layer ocean, is used to 11 calculate the climate response to the direct radiative forcing from such aerosols. The cases 12 considered include imposed distributions of black carbon and sulphate aerosols from road 13 transport, and sulphate aerosols from shipping; these are compared to the climate response 14 due to CO2 increases. The difficulties in calculating the climate response due to small 15 forcings are discussed, as the actual forcings have to be scaled by large amounts to enable a 16 climate response to be easily detected. Despite the much greater geographical inhomogeneity 17 in the sulphate forcing, the patterns of zonal and annual-mean surface temperature response 18 (although opposite in sign) closely resembles that resulting from homogeneous changes in 19 CO2. The surface temperature response to black carbon aerosols from road transport is shown 20 to be notably non-linear in scaling applied, probably due to the semi-direct response of clouds 21 to these aerosols. For the aerosol forcings considered here, the most widespread method of 22 calculating radiative forcing significantly overestimates their effect, relative to CO2, 23 compared to surface temperature changes calculated using the climate model.

The effect of extratropical cyclones on satellite-retrieved aerosol properties over ocean

Extratropical cyclones may have a signicant effect on column aerosol properties over ocean. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) derived storm-centric composites of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) aerosol optical depth and aerosol size parameters are produced for the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic oceans. It is found that retrieved aerosol optical depth and aerosol size both increase near the center of the composite extratropical cyclones. Using composites of ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, it is demonstrated that wind speed is a considerably more likely explanatory variable than relative humidity for the aerosol observations. A comparison of composites for both MODIS and AATSR, which uses a wind speed dependent sea-surface brightness model in the aerosol retrieval, suggests that although surface brightness eects may contribute towards some of the observations, wind speed dependent emission of sea salt also appears to make a signicant contribution to the observed aerosol properties.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Changes to the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January and February) extratropical storm tracks and cyclones in a warming climate are investigated. Two idealised climate change experiments with HiGEM1.1, a doubled CO2 and a quadrupled CO2 experiment, are compared against a present day control run. An objective feature tracking method is used and a focus given to regional changes. The climatology of extratropical storm tracks from the control run is shown to be in good agreement with ERA-40, while the frequency distribution of cyclone intensity also compares well. In both simulations the mean climate changes are generally consistent with the simulations of the IPCC AR4 models, with a strongly enhanced surface warming at the winter pole and the reduced lower tropospheric warming over the North Atlantic Ocean associated with the slowdown of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. The circulation changes in the North Atlantic are different between the two idealised simulations with different CO2 forcings. In the North Atlantic the storm tracks are influenced by the slowdown of the MOC, the enhanced surface polar warming, and the enhanced upper tropical troposphere warming, giving a north eastward shift of the storm tracks in the 2XCO2 experiment, but no shift in the 4XCO2 experiment. Over the Pacific, in the 2XCO2 experiment, changes in the mean climate are associated with local temperature changes, while in the 4XCO2 experiment the changes in the Pacific are impacted by the weakened tropical circulation. The storm track changes are consistent with the shifts in the zonal wind. Total cyclone numbers are found to decrease over the Northern Hemisphere with increasing CO2 forcing. Changes in cyclone intensity are found using 850hPa vorticity, mean sea level pressure, and 850hPa winds. The intensity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones is found to decrease relative to the control.

An ECOOP web portal for visualising and comparing distributed coastal oceanography model and in situ data

As part of a large European coastal operational oceanography project (ECOOP), we have developed a web portal for the display and comparison of model and in situ marine data. The distributed model and in situ datasets are accessed via an Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) respectively. These services were developed independently and readily integrated for the purposes of the ECOOP project, illustrating the ease of interoperability resulting from adherence to international standards. The key feature of the portal is the ability to display co-plotted timeseries of the in situ and model data and the quantification of misfits between the two. By using standards-based web technology we allow the user to quickly and easily explore over twenty model data feeds and compare these with dozens of in situ data feeds without being concerned with the low level details of differing file formats or the physical location of the data. Scientific and operational benefits to this work include model validation, quality control of observations, data assimilation and decision support in near real time. In these areas it is essential to be able to bring different data streams together from often disparate locations.

An ocean modelling and assimilation guide to using GOCE geoid products

We review the procedures and challenges that must be considered when using geoid data derived from the Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission in order to constrain the circulation and water mass representation in an ocean 5 general circulation model. It covers the combination of the geoid information with timemean sea level information derived from satellite altimeter data, to construct a mean dynamic topography (MDT), and considers how this complements the time-varying sea level anomaly, also available from the satellite altimeter. We particularly consider the compatibility of these different fields in their spatial scale content, their temporal rep10 resentation, and in their error covariances. These considerations are very important when the resulting data are to be used to estimate ocean circulation and its corresponding errors. We describe the further steps needed for assimilating the resulting dynamic topography information into an ocean circulation model using three different operational fore15 casting and data assimilation systems. We look at methods used for assimilating altimeter anomaly data in the absence of a suitable geoid, and then discuss different approaches which have been tried for assimilating the additional geoid information. We review the problems that have been encountered and the lessons learned in order the help future users. Finally we present some results from the use of GRACE geoid in20 formation in the operational oceanography community and discuss the future potential gains that may be obtained from a new GOCE geoid.

Assimilation impacts on Arctic Ocean circulation, heat and freshwater

We investigate the Arctic basin circulation, freshwater content (FWC) and heat budget by using a high-resolution global coupled ice–ocean model implemented with a state-of-the-art data assimilation scheme. We demonstrate that, despite a very sparse dataset, by assimilating hydrographic data in and near the Arctic basin, the initial warm bias and drift in the control run is successfully corrected, reproducing a much more realistic vertical and horizontal structure to the cyclonic boundary current carrying the Atlantic Water (AW) along the Siberian shelves in the reanalysis run. The Beaufort Gyre structure and FWC and variability are also more accurately reproduced. Small but important changes in the strait exchange flows are found which lead to more balanced budgets in the reanalysis run. Assimilation fluxes dominate the basin budgets over the first 10 years (P1: 1987–1996) of the reanalysis for both heat and FWC, after which the drifting Arctic upper water properties have been restored to realistic values. For the later period (P2: 1997–2004), the Arctic heat budget is almost balanced without assimilation contributions, while the freshwater budget shows reduced assimilation contributions compensating largely for surface salinity damping, which was extremely strong in this run. A downward trend in freshwater export at the Canadian Straits and Fram Strait is found in period P2, associated with Beaufort Gyre recharge. A detailed comparison with observations and previous model studies at the individual Arctic straits is also included.

Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations

We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.