975 resultados para Predictive-value


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BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) dilatation is associated with a large variety of cardiac diseases. Current cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) strategies to measure LA volumes are based on multi-breath-hold multi-slice acquisitions, which are time-consuming and susceptible to misregistration. AIM: To develop a time-efficient single breath-hold 3D CMR acquisition and reconstruction method to precisely measure LA volumes and function. METHODS: A highly accelerated compressed-sensing multi-slice cine sequence (CS-cineCMR) was combined with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction method to measure LA volumes with high temporal and spatial resolution during a single breath-hold. This approach was validated in LA phantoms of different shapes and applied in 3 patients. In addition, the influence of slice orientations on accuracy was evaluated in the LA phantoms for the new approach in comparison with a conventional model-based biplane area-length reconstruction. As a reference in patients, a self-navigated high-resolution whole-heart 3D dataset (3D-HR-CMR) was acquired during mid-diastole to yield accurate LA volumes. RESULTS: Phantom studies. LA volumes were accurately measured by CS-cineCMR with a mean difference of -4.73 ± 1.75 ml (-8.67 ± 3.54%, r2 = 0.94). For the new method the calculated volumes were not significantly different when different orientations of the CS-cineCMR slices were applied to cover the LA phantoms. Long-axis "aligned" vs "not aligned" with the phantom long-axis yielded similar differences vs the reference volume (-4.87 ± 1.73 ml vs. -4.45 ± 1.97 ml, p = 0.67) and short-axis "perpendicular" vs. "not-perpendicular" with the LA long-axis (-4.72 ± 1.66 ml vs. -4.75 ± 2.13 ml; p = 0.98). The conventional bi-plane area-length method was susceptible for slice orientations (p = 0.0085 for the interaction of "slice orientation" and "reconstruction technique", 2-way ANOVA for repeated measures). To use the 3D-HR-CMR as the reference for LA volumes in patients, it was validated in the LA phantoms (mean difference: -1.37 ± 1.35 ml, -2.38 ± 2.44%, r2 = 0.97). Patient study: The CS-cineCMR LA volumes of the mid-diastolic frame matched closely with the reference LA volume (measured by 3D-HR-CMR) with a difference of -2.66 ± 6.5 ml (3.0% underestimation; true LA volumes: 63 ml, 62 ml, and 395 ml). Finally, a high intra- and inter-observer agreement for maximal and minimal LA volume measurement is also shown. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method combines a highly accelerated single-breathhold compressed-sensing multi-slice CMR technique with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction to accurately and reproducibly measure LA volumes and function.

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BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS: This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

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Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) as treatment in acute ischaemic strokes may be insufficient to achieve recanalisation in certain patients. Predicting probability of non-recanalisation after IVT may have the potential to influence patient selection to more aggressive management strategies. We aimed at deriving and internally validating a predictive score for post-thrombolytic non-recanalisation, using clinical and radiological variables. In thrombolysis registries from four Swiss academic stroke centres (Lausanne, Bern, Basel and Geneva), patients were selected with large arterial occlusion on acute imaging and with repeated arterial assessment at 24 hours. Based on a logistic regression analysis, an integer-based score for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated. Performance of integer-based predictive model was assessed by bootstrapping available data and cross validation (delete-d method). In 599 thrombolysed strokes, five variables were identified as independent predictors of absence of recanalisation: Acute glucose > 7 mmol/l (A), significant extracranial vessel STenosis (ST), decreased Range of visual fields (R), large Arterial occlusion (A) and decreased Level of consciousness (L). All variables were weighted 1, except for (L) which obtained 2 points based on β-coefficients on the logistic scale. ASTRAL-R scores 0, 3 and 6 corresponded to non-recanalisation probabilities of 18, 44 and 74 % respectively. Predictive ability showed AUC of 0.66 (95 %CI, 0.61-0.70) when using bootstrap and 0.66 (0.63-0.68) when using delete-d cross validation. In conclusion, the 5-item ASTRAL-R score moderately predicts non-recanalisation at 24 hours in thrombolysed ischaemic strokes. If its performance can be confirmed by external validation and its clinical usefulness can be proven, the score may influence patient selection for more aggressive revascularisation strategies in routine clinical practice.

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BACKGROUND: Lack of electroencephalography (EEG) background reactivity during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) has been associated with poor outcome in post-anoxic comatose patients. However, decision on intensive care withdrawal is based on normothermic (NT) evaluations. This study aims at exploring whether patients showing recovery of EEG reactivity in NT after a non-reactive EEG in TH differ from those remaining non-reactive. METHODS: Patients with non-reactive EEG during TH were identified from our prospective registry of consecutive comatose adults admitted after successful resuscitation from CA between April 2009 and June 2014. Variables including neurological examination, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE), procalcitonin, and EEG features were compared regarding impact on functional outcome at 3 months. RESULTS: Seventy-two of 197 patients (37 %) had a non-reactive EEG background during TH with thirteen (18 %) evolving towards reactivity in NT. Compared to those remaining non-reactive (n = 59), they showed significantly better recovery of brainstem reflexes (p < 0.001), better motor responses (p < 0.001), transitory consciousness improvement (p = 0.008), and a tendency toward lower NSE (p = 0.067). One patient recovering EEG reactivity survived with good functional outcome at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery of EEG reactivity from TH to NT seems to distinguish two patients' subgroups regarding early neurological assessment and transitory consciousness improvement, corroborating the role of EEG in providing information about cerebral functions. Understanding these dynamic changes encourages maintenance of intensive support in selected patients even after a non-reactive EEG background in TH, as a small subgroup may indeed recover with good functional outcome.

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OBJECTIVE: As universal screening of hypertension performs poorly in childhood, targeted screening to children at higher risk of hypertension has been proposed. Our goal was to assess the performance of combined parental history of hypertension and overweight/obesity to identify children with hypertension. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of overweight/obesity and parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10 to 14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Blood pressure was measured with a clinically validated oscillometric automated device over up to three visits separated by one week. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over the three visits. Parents were interviewed about their history of hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. 14% of children were overweight or obese and 20% had a positive history of hypertension in either or both parents. 30% of children had either or both conditions. After accounting for several potential confounding factors, parental history of hypertension (odds ratio (OR): 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-4.0), overweight excluding obesity (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and obesity (OR: 10.1; 95% CI: 6.0-17.0) were associated with hypertension in children. Considered in isolation, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension (respectively 41% and 5%) or overweight/obesity (respectively 43% and 7%) were relatively low. Nevertheless, considered together, the sensitivity of targeted screening in children with either overweight/obesity or paternal history of hypertension was higher (65%) but the positive predictive value remained low (5%). The negative predictive value was systematically high. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting screening of hypertension to children with either overweight/obesity or with hypertensive parents would substantially limit the proportion of children to screen (30%) and allow the identification of a relatively large proportion (65%) of hypertensive cases. That could be a valuable alternative to universal screening.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Fluid overload may promote obstructive sleep apnea in patients with ESRD through an overnight fluid shift from the legs to the neck soft tissues. Body fluid shift and severity of obstructive sleep apnea before and after hemodialysis were compared in patients with ESRD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Seventeen patients with hemodialysis and moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea were included. Polysomnographies were performed the night before and after hemodialysis to assess obstructive sleep apnea, and bioimpedance was used to measure fluid overload and leg fluid volume. RESULTS: The mean overnight rostral fluid shift was 1.27±0.41 L prehemodialysis; it correlated positively with fluid overload volume (r=0.39; P=0.02) and was significantly lower posthemodialysis (0.78±0.38 L; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index before and after hemodialysis (46.8±22.0 versus 42.1±18.6 per hour; P=0.21), but obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly lower posthemodialysis (-10.1±10.8 per hour) in the group of 12 patients, with a concomitant reduction of fluid overload compared with participants without change in fluid overload (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index +8.2±16.1 per hour; P<0.01). A lower fluid overload after hemodialysis was significantly correlated (r=0.49; P=0.04) with a lower obstructive apnea-hypopnea index. Fluid overload-assessed by bioimpedance-was the best predictor of the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index observed after hemodialysis (standardized r=-0.68; P=0.01) in multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fluid overload influences overnight rostral fluid shift and obstructive sleep apnea severity in patients with ESRD undergoing intermittent hemodialysis. Although no benefit of hemodialysis on obstructive sleep apnea severity was observed in the whole group, the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly correlated with the change in fluid overload after hemodialysis. Moreover, the subgroup with lower fluid overload posthemodialysis showed a significantly lower obstructive sleep apnea severity, which provides a strong incentive to further study whether optimizing fluid status in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and ESRD will improve the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index.

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Electrosyneresis and double diffusion are immunoprecipitation techniques commonly used in the serological diagnosis of Farmer's lung disease (FLD). These techniques are reliable but lack standardization. The aim of this study was to evaluate Western blotting for the serodiagnosis of FLD. We carried out Western blotting with an antigenic extract of Lichtheimia corymbifera, an important aetiological agent of the disease. The membranes were probed with sera from 21 patients with FLD and 21 healthy exposed controls to examine the IgG antibody responses against purified somatic antigens. Given the low prevalence of the disease, 21 patients could be considered as a relevant series. Four bands were significantly more frequently represented in membranes probed with FLD sera (bands at 27.7, 40.5, 44.0 and 50.5 kDa) than those probed with control sera. We assessed the diagnostic value of different criteria alone or in combination. The diagnostic accuracy of the test was highest with the inclusion of at least two of the following criteria: at least five bands on the strip and the presence of one band at 40.5 or 44.0 kDa. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were all 81%, and the odds ratio was 18.06. Inclusion of bands of high intensity diminished rather than improved the diagnostic value of the test. We concluded that Western blotting is a valuable technique for the serodiagnosis of FLD. The industrial production of ready-to-use membranes would enable the routine use of this technique in laboratories, and provide reliable and standardized diagnostic results within a few hours.

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BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

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Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a recently-developed analytical tool that performs novel grey-level texture measurements on lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images, and thereby captures information relating to trabecular microarchitecture. In order for TBS to usefully add to bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors in osteoporosis risk stratification, it must be independently associated with fracture risk, readily obtainable, and ideally, present a risk which is amenable to osteoporosis treatment. This paper summarizes a review of the scientific literature performed by a Working Group of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis. Low TBS is consistently associated with an increase in both prevalent and incident fractures that is partly independent of both clinical risk factors and areal BMD (aBMD) at the lumbar spine and proximal femur. More recently, TBS has been shown to have predictive value for fracture independent of fracture probabilities using the FRAX® algorithm. Although TBS changes with osteoporosis treatment, the magnitude is less than that of aBMD of the spine, and it is not clear how change in TBS relates to fracture risk reduction. TBS may also have a role in the assessment of fracture risk in some causes of secondary osteoporosis (e.g., diabetes, hyperparathyroidism and glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis). In conclusion, there is a role for TBS in fracture risk assessment in combination with both aBMD and FRAX.

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By merging computational systems modeling and experimental approaches, we have uncovered treatments reprogramming pro-angiogenic monocytes present in breast tumor into immunologically potent cells capable of mediating an anti-tumor immune response. The unraveled pathways and ligands which underlie monocyte pro-angiogenic activity have a strong predictive value for breast cancer patient relapse - free survival.

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BACKGROUND: For free-breathing cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), the self-navigation technique recently emerged, which is expected to deliver high-quality data with a high success rate. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that self-navigated 3D-CMR enables the reliable assessment of cardiovascular anatomy in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) and to define factors that affect image quality. METHODS: CHD patients ≥2 years-old and referred for CMR for initial assessment or for a follow-up study were included to undergo a free-breathing self-navigated 3D CMR at 1.5T. Performance criteria were: correct description of cardiac segmental anatomy, overall image quality, coronary artery visibility, and reproducibility of great vessels diameter measurements. Factors associated with insufficient image quality were identified using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Self-navigated CMR was performed in 105 patients (55% male, 23 ± 12y). Correct segmental description was achieved in 93% and 96% for observer 1 and 2, respectively. Diagnostic quality was obtained in 90% of examinations, and it increased to 94% if contrast-enhanced. Left anterior descending, circumflex, and right coronary arteries were visualized in 93%, 87% and 98%, respectively. Younger age, higher heart rate, lower ejection fraction, and lack of contrast medium were independently associated with reduced image quality. However, a similar rate of diagnostic image quality was obtained in children and adults. CONCLUSION: In patients with CHD, self-navigated free-breathing CMR provides high-resolution 3D visualization of the heart and great vessels with excellent robustness.

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Cognitive impairment in schizophrenia and psychosis is ubiquitous and acknowledged as a core feature of clinical expression, pathophysiology, and prediction of functioning. However, assessment of cognitive functioning is excessively time-consuming in routine practice, and brief cognitive instruments specific to psychosis would be of value. Two screening tools have recently been created to address this issue, i.e., the Brief Cognitive Assessment Tool for Schizophrenia (B-CATS) and the Screen for Cognitive Impairment in Psychiatry (SCIP). The aim of this research was to examine the comparative validity of these two brief instruments in relation to a global cognitive score. 161 patients with psychosis (96 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia and 65 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder) and 76 healthy control subjects were tested with both instruments to examine their concurrent validity relative to a more comprehensive neuropsychological assessment battery. Scores from the B-CATS and the SCIP were highly correlated in the three diagnostic groups, and both scales showed good to excellent concurrent validity relative to a Global Cognitive Composite Score (GCCS) derived from the more comprehensive examination. The SCIP-S showed better predictive value of global cognitive impairment than the B-CATS. Partial and semi-partial correlations showed slightly higher percentages of both shared and unique variance between the SCIP-S and the GCCS than between the B-CATS and the GCCS. Brief instruments for assessing cognition in schizophrenia and bipolar disorders, such as the SCIP-S and B-CATS, seem to be reliable and promising tools for use in routine clinical practice.

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PURPOSE: Because desmoid tumors exhibit an unpredictable clinical course, translational research is crucial to identify the predictive factors of progression in addition to the clinical parameters. The main issue is to detect patients who are at a higher risk of progression. The aim of this work was to identify molecular markers that can predict progression-free survival (PFS). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene-expression screening was conducted on 115 available independent untreated primary desmoid tumors using cDNA microarray. We established a prognostic gene-expression signature composed of 36 genes. To test robustness, we randomly generated 1,000 36-gene signatures and compared their outcome association to our define 36-genes molecular signature and we calculated positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that our molecular signature had a significant impact on PFS while no clinical factor had any prognostic value. Among the 1,000 random signatures generated, 56.7% were significant and none was more significant than our 36-gene molecular signature. PPV and NPV were high (75.58% and 81.82%, respectively). Finally, the top two genes downregulated in no-recurrence were FECH and STOML2 and the top gene upregulated in no-recurrence was TRIP6. CONCLUSIONS: By analyzing expression profiles, we have identified a gene-expression signature that is able to predict PFS. This tool may be useful for prospective clinical studies. Clin Cancer Res; 21(18); 4194-200. ©2015 AACR.

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Thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytology is a fast growing field. One of the most developing areas is represented by molecular tests applied to cytological material. Patients that could benefit the most from these tests are those that have been diagnosed as 'indeterminate' on FNA. They could be better stratified in terms of malignancy risk and thus oriented with more confidence to the appropriate management. Taking in to consideration the need to improve and keep high the yield of thyroid FNA, professionals from various fields (i.e. molecular biologists, endocrinologists, nuclear medicine physicians and radiologists) are refining and fine-tuning their diagnostic instruments. In particular, all these developments aim at increasing the negative predictive value of FNA to improve the selection of patients for diagnostic surgery. These advances involve terminology, the application of next-generation sequencing to thyroid FNA, the use of immunocyto- and histo-chemistry, the development of new sampling techniques and the increasing use of nuclear medicine as well as molecular imaging in the management of patients with a thyroid nodule. Herein, we review the recent advances in thyroid FNA cytology that could be of interest to the 'thyroid-care' community, with particular focus on the indeterminate diagnostic category.

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OBJETIVO: Avaliar artigos, na literatura, que verificam o valor preditivo positivo das categorias 3, 4 e 5 do Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS®). MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foi realizada pesquisa na base de dados Medline utilizando os termos "predictive value" e "BI-RADS". Foram incluídos 11 artigos nesta revisão. RESULTADOS: O valor preditivo positivo das categorias 3, 4 e 5 variou entre 0% e 8%, 4% e 62%, 54% e 100%, respectivamente. Três artigos avaliaram, concomitantemente, os critérios morfológicos das lesões que apresentaram maior valor preditivo positivo na mamografia, sendo nódulo espiculado o critério com maior valor preditivo positivo. CONCLUSÃO: Houve grande variabilidade do valor preditivo positivo das categorias 3, 4 e 5 do BI-RADS® em todos os estudos, porém foram identificadas diferenças metodológicas que limitaram a comparação desses estudos.