959 resultados para Prediction systems


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We review the description of noise in electronic circuits in terms of electron transport. The Poisson process is used as a unifying principle. In recent years, much attention has been given to current noise in light-emitting diodes and laser diodes. In these devices, random events associated with electron transport are correlated with photon emission times, thus modifying both the current statistics and the statistics of the emitted light. We give a review of experiments in this area with special emphasis on the ability of such devices to produce subshot-noise currents and light beams. Finally we consider the noise properties of a class of mesoscopic devices based on the quantum tunnelling of an electron into and out of a bound state. We present a simple quantum model of this process which confirms that the current noise in such a device should be subshot-noise.

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Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

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A theoretical analysis is carried out to investigate the pore-fluid pressure gradient and effective vertical-stress gradient distribution in fluid saturated porous rock masses in layered hydrodynamic systems. Three important concepts, namely the critical porosity of a porous medium, the intrinsic Fore-fluid pressure and the intrinsic effective vertical stress of the solid matrix, are presented and discussed. Using some basic scientific principles, we derive analytical solutions and explore the conditions under which either the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient or the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient. Even though the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient in a single layer, it is impossible to maintain it at this value in all layers in a layered hydrodynamic system, unless all layers have the same permeability and porosity simultaneously. However, the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient of the solid matrix can be maintained at a value close to the lithostatic pressure gradient in all layers in any layered hydrodynamic system within the scope of this study.

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Recently the problem of the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v with a hole of size u was completely solved. In this paper we prove necessary and sufficient conditions on v and u for the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v - F, with a hole of size u.

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We describe a method which, in certain circumstances, may be used to prove that the well-known necessary conditions for partitioning the edge set of the complete graph on an odd number of vertices (or the complete graph on an even number of vertices with a 1-factor removed) into cycles of lengths m(1),m(2),...,m(t) are sufficient in the case \{m(1), m(2), ..., m(t)}\=2. The method is used to settle the case where the cycle lengths are 4 and 5. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The present study examined the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy [1] in the prediction of alcohol dependence [2] and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. In predicting alcohol dependence, outcome expectancies were found to mediate self-efficacy and the same pattern was found for both males and females. This suggests that male and female drinkers may become more similar as they progress along the drinking continuum from risky drinking to dependent drinking. However, in women, in comparison to men, a greater array of expectancies and self-efficacy scales were found to predict heavy drinking, as measured by quantity and frequency. These results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking related complications and that preventative education needs to take into account gender differences.

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A quantum Markovian master equation is derived to describe the current noise in resonant tunneling devices. This equation includes both incoherent and coherent quantum tunneling processes. We show how to obtain the population master equation by adiabatic elimination of quantum coherences in the presence of elastic scattering. We calculate the noise spectrum for a double well device and predict subshot noise statistics for strong tunneling between the wells. The method is an alternative to Green's function methods and population master equations for very small coherently coupled quantum dots.

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We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

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This paper summarizes the processes involved in designing a mathematical model of a growing pasture plant, Stylosanthes scabra Vog. cv. Fitzroy. The model is based on the mathematical formalism of Lindenmayer systems and yields realistic computer-generated images of progressive plant geometry through time. The processes involved in attaining growth data, retrieving useful growth rules, and constructing a virtual plant model are outlined. Progressive output morphological data proved useful for predicting total leaf area and allowed for easier quantification of plant canopy size in terms of biomass and total leaf area.

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Objective: We compared service consumption, continuity of care and risk of readmission in a record linkage follow-up study of cohorts of patients with schizophrenia and related disorders in Victoria (Australia) and in Groningen (The Netherlands). These areas are interesting to compare because mental health care is in a different stage of deiustitutionalization. More beds are available in Groningen and more community resources are available in Victoria. Method: The cohorts were followed for 4 years, since discharge from inpatient services using record linkage data available in the psychiatric case-registers in both areas. Survival analysis was used to study continuity of care and risk of readmission. Results: Available indicators showed a higher level of continuity of care in Victoria. While the relative risk of readmission was the same in both areas and not affected by aftercare contact after discharge, the number of days spent in hospital was much higher in the Groningen register area. Conclusion: These findings provide further support for earlier reports that the risk of readmission is predominantly affected by attributes of mental illness. However, the duration of admissions, is strongly affected by service system variables, including the provision of continuity of care.

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Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

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We present a method for measuring single spins embedded in a solid by probing two-electron systems with a single-electron transistor (SET). Restrictions imposed by the Pauli principle on allowed two-electron states mean that the spin state of such systems has a profound impact on the orbital states (positions) of the electrons, a parameter which SET's are extremely well suited to measure. We focus on a particular system capable of being fabricated with current technology: a Te double donor in Si adjacent to a Si/SiO2, interface and lying directly beneath the SET island electrode, and we outline a measurement strategy capable of resolving single-electron and nuclear spins in this system. We discuss the limitations of the measurement imposed by spin scattering arising from fluctuations emanating from the SET and from lattice phonons. We conclude that measurement of single spins, a necessary requirement for several proposed quantum computer architectures, is feasible in Si using this strategy.

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We use a quantum master equation to describe transport in double-dot devices. The coherent dot-to-dot coupling affects the noise spectra strongly. For phonon-assisted tunneling, the calculated current spectra are consistent with those of experiments. The model shows that quantum stochastic theory may he applied to some advantage in mesoscopic electronic systems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Percolative fragmentation was confirmed to occur during gasification of three microporous coal chars. Indirect evidence obtained by the variation of electrical resistivity (ER) with conversion was supported by direct observation of numerous fragments during gasification. The resistivity increases slowly at low conversions and then sharply after a certain conversion value, which is a typical percolation phenomenon suggesting the occurrence of internal fragmentation at high conversion. Two percolation models are applied to interpret the experimental data and determine the percolation threshold. A percolation threshold of 0.02-0.07 was found, corresponding to a critical conversion of 92-96% for fragmentation. The electrical resistivity variation at high conversions is found to be very sensitive to diffusional effects during gasification. Partially burnt samples with a narrow initial particle size range were also observed microscopically, and found to yield a large number of small fragments even when the particles showed no disintegration and chemical control prevailed. It is proposed that this is due to the separation of isolated clusters from the particle surface. The particle size distribution of the fragments was essentially independent of the reaction conditions and the char type, and supported the prediction by percolation theory that the number fraction distribution varies linearly with mass in a log-log plot. The results imply that perimeter fragmentation would occur in practical combustion systems in which the reactions are strongly diffusion affected.