910 resultados para Prediction method


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Genetic recombination can produce heterogeneous phylogenetic histories within a set of homologous genes. Delineating recombination events is important in the study of molecular evolution, as inference of such events provides a clearer picture of the phylogenetic relationships among different gene sequences or genomes. Nevertheless, detecting recombination events can be a daunting task, as the performance of different recombination-detecting approaches can vary, depending on evolutionary events that take place after recombination. We previously evaluated the effects of post-recombination events on the prediction accuracy of recombination-detecting approaches using simulated nucleotide sequence data. The main conclusion, supported by other studies, is that one should not depend on a single method when searching for recombination events. In this paper, we introduce a two-phase strategy, applying three statistical measures to detect the occurrence of recombination events, and a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to delineate breakpoints of such events in nucleotide sequences. We evaluate the performance of these approaches using simulated data, and demonstrate the applicability of this strategy to empirical data. The two-phase strategy proves to be time-efficient when applied to large datasets, and yields high-confidence results.

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A modified formula for the integral transform of a nonlinear function is proposed for a class of nonlinear boundary value problems. The technique presented in this paper results in analytical solutions. Iterations and initial guess, which are needed in other techniques, are not required in this novel technique. The analytical solutions are found to agree surprisingly well with the numerically exact solutions for two examples of power law reaction and Langmuir-Hinshelwood reaction in a catalyst pellet.

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The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the flow of rarefied gases. In the Macroscopic Chemistry Method (MCM) for DSMC, chemical reaction rates calculated from local macroscopic flow properties are enforced in each cell. Unlike the standard total collision energy (TCE) chemistry model for DSMC, the new method is not restricted to an Arrhenius form of the reaction rate coefficient, nor is it restricted to a collision cross-section which yields a simple power-law viscosity. For reaction rates of interest in aerospace applications, chemically reacting collisions are generally infrequent events and, as such, local equilibrium conditions are established before a significant number of chemical reactions occur. Hence, the reaction rates which have been used in MCM have been calculated from the reaction rate data which are expected to be correct only for conditions of thermal equilibrium. Here we consider artificially high reaction rates so that the fraction of reacting collisions is not small and propose a simple method of estimating the rates of chemical reactions which can be used in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. Two tests are presented: (1) The dissociation rates under conditions of thermal non-equilibrium are determined from a zero-dimensional Monte-Carlo sampling procedure which simulates ‘intra-modal’ non-equilibrium; that is, equilibrium distributions in each of the translational, rotational and vibrational modes but with different temperatures for each mode; (2) The 2-D hypersonic flow of molecular oxygen over a vertical plate at Mach 30 is calculated. In both cases the new method produces results in close agreement with those given by the standard TCE model in the same highly nonequilibrium conditions. We conclude that the general method of estimating the non-equilibrium reaction rate is a simple means by which information contained within non-equilibrium distribution functions predicted by the DSMC method can be included in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method.

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There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

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The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented.

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Modeling volcanic phenomena is complicated by free-surfaces often supporting large rheological gradients. Analytical solutions and analogue models provide explanations for fundamental characteristics of lava flows. But more sophisticated models are needed, incorporating improved physics and rheology to capture realistic events. To advance our understanding of the flow dynamics of highly viscous lava in Peléean lava dome formation, axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method (FEM) models of generic endogenous dome growth have been developed. We use a novel technique, the level-set method, which tracks a moving interface, leaving the mesh unaltered. The model equations are formulated in an Eulerian framework. In this paper we test the quality of this technique in our numerical scheme by considering existing analytical and experimental models of lava dome growth which assume a constant Newtonian viscosity. We then compare our model against analytical solutions for real lava domes extruded on Soufrière, St. Vincent, W.I. in 1979 and Mount St. Helens, USA in October 1980 using an effective viscosity. The level-set method is found to be computationally light and robust enough to model the free-surface of a growing lava dome. Also, by modeling the extruded lava with a constant pressure head this naturally results in a drop in extrusion rate with increasing dome height, which can explain lava dome growth observables more appropriately than when using a fixed extrusion rate. From the modeling point of view, the level-set method will ultimately provide an opportunity to capture more of the physics while benefiting from the numerical robustness of regular grids.

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Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

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In this paper, a progressive asymptotic approach procedure is presented for solving the steady-state Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem possesses a bifurcation and, therefore, makes the direct use of conventional finite element methods difficult. Even if the Rayleigh number is high enough to drive the occurrence of natural convection in a fluid-saturated porous medium, the conventional methods will often produce a trivial non-convective solution. This difficulty can be overcome using the progressive asymptotic approach procedure associated with the finite element method. The method considers a series of modified Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problems in which gravity is assumed to tilt a small angle away from vertical. The main idea behind the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is that through solving a sequence of such modified problems with decreasing tilt, an accurate non-zero velocity solution to the Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem can be obtained. This solution provides a very good initial prediction for the solution to the original Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem so that the non-zero velocity solution can be successfully obtained when the tilted angle is set to zero. Comparison of numerical solutions with analytical ones to a benchmark problem of any rectangular geometry has demonstrated the usefulness of the present progressive asymptotic approach procedure. Finally, the procedure has been used to investigate the effect of basin shapes on natural convection of pore-fluid in a porous medium. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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We present a fast method for finding optimal parameters for a low-resolution (threading) force field intended to distinguish correct from incorrect folds for a given protein sequence. In contrast to other methods, the parameterization uses information from >10(7) misfolded structures as well as a set of native sequence-structure pairs. In addition to testing the resulting force field's performance on the protein sequence threading problem, results are shown that characterize the number of parameters necessary for effective structure recognition.

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Aim: Unless specifically treated (glucocorticoids in low doses), Familial Hyperaldosteronism Type I(FH-I) may result in early death from stroke. We report the successful application of a rapid, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method of detecting the 'hybrid' 11 beta-hydroxylase (11 beta-OHase)/aldosterone synthase (AS) gene as a screening test for FH-I. Methods: 'Long-PCR' was used to amplify, concurrently, a 4 kb fragment of AS gene (both primers AS-specific) and a 4 kb fragment of the hybrid gene (5' primer 11 beta-OHase-specific, 3'primer AS-specific) from DNA extracted from blood either collected locally or transported from elsewhere. Sample collection and transport were straightforward. This 4 kb fragment contains all the currently recognised hybrid gene 'crossover' points. Results: Within a single family, long-PCR identified all 21 individuals known to have FH-I. Hypertension was corrected in all 11 treated with glucocorticoids. Nine with normal blood pressure are being closely followed for development of hypertension. Long-PCR cord blood analysis excluded FH-I in three neonates born to affected individuals. Long-PCR newly identified two other affected families: (1) a female (60 years) with a personal and family history of stroke and her normotensive daughter (40 years), and (2) a female (51 years) previously treated for primary aldosteronism with amiloride, her two hypertensive sons (14 and 16 years) and her hypertensive mother (78 years). No false negative or false positive results have yet been encountered. At least seven other centres have successfully performed this test. Conclusion: Long-PCR is a reliable method of screening individuals of all ages for FH-I.

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Multi-frequency bioimpedance analysis (MFBIA) was used to determine the impedance, reactance and resistance of 103 lamb carcasses (17.1-34.2 kg) immediately after slaughter and evisceration. Carcasses were halved, frozen and one half subsequently homogenized and analysed for water, crude protein and fat content. Three measures of carcass length were obtained. Diagonal length between the electrodes (right side biceps femoris to left side of neck) explained a greater proportion of the variance in water mass than did estimates of spinal length and was selected for use in the index L-2/Z to predict the mass of chemical components in the carcass. Use of impedance (Z) measured at the characteristic frequency (Z(c)) instead of 50 kHz (Z(50)) did not improve the power of the model to predict the mass of water, protein or fat in the carcass. While L-2/Z(50) explained a significant proportion of variation in the masses of body water (r(2) 0.64), protein (r(2) 0.34) and fat (r(2) 0.35), its inclusion in multi-variate indices offered small or no increases in predictive capacity when hot carcass weight (HCW) and a measure of rib fat-depth (GR) were present in the model. Optimized equations were able to account for 65-90 % of the variance observed in the weight of chemical components in the carcass. It is concluded that single frequency impedance data do not provide better prediction of carcass composition than can be obtained from measures of HCW and GR. Indices of intracellular water mass derived from impedance at zero frequency and the characteristic frequency explained a similar proportion of the variance in carcass protein mass as did the index L-2/Z(50).

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This communication describes an improved one-step solid-phase extraction method for the recovery of morphine (M), morphine-3-glucuronide (M3G), and morphine-6-glucuronide (M6G) from human plasma with reduced coextraction of endogenous plasma constituents, compared to that of the authors' previously reported method. The magnitude of the peak caused by endogenous plasma components in the chromatogram that eluted immediately before the retention time of M3G has been reduced (similar to 80%) significantly (p < 0.01) while achieving high extraction efficiencies for the compounds of interest, viz morphine, M6G, and M3G (93.8 +/- 2.5, 91.7 +/- 1.7, and 93.1 +/- 2.2%, respectively). Furthermore, when the improved solid-phase extraction method was used, the extraction cartridge-derived late-eluting peak (retention time 90 to 100 minutes) reported in our previous method, was no longer present in the plasma extracts. Therefore the combined effect of reducing the recovery of the endogenous components of plasma that chromatographed just before the retention time of M3G and the removal of the late-eluting, extraction cartridge-derived peak has resulted in a decrease in the chromatographic run-time to 20 minutes, thereby increasing the sample throughput by up to 100%.

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The large fat globules that can be present in UHT milk due to inadequate homogenisation cause a cream layer to form that limits the shelf life of UHT milk. Four different particle size measurement techniques were used to measure the size of fat globules in poorly homogenised UHT milk processed in a UHT pilot plant. The thickness of the cream layer that formed during storage was negatively correlated with homogenisation pressure. It was positively correlated with the mass mean diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by laser light scattering using the Malvern Mastersizer. Also, the thickness of the cream layer was positively correlated with the volume mode diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by electrical impedance using the Coulter Counter. The cream layer thickness did not correlate significantly with the Coulter Counter measurements of volume mean diameter, or volume percentages of particles between 2 and 5 mu m or 5 and 10 mu m diameter. Spectroturbidimetry (Emulsion Quality Analyser) and light microscopy analyses were found to be unsuitable for assessing the size of the fat particles. This study suggests that the fat globule size distribution as determined by the electrical impedance method (Coulter Counter) is the most useful for determining the efficiency of homogenisation and therefore for predicting the stability of the fat emulsion in UHT milk during storage.

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A hydride cold-trapping technique was developed and optimised for the measurement of urinary arsenic metabolites. The analytical precision of the method was found to be 6.1, 4.0 and 4.8% (n = 5) for inorganic arsenic (As-i), monomethylarsonate (MMA) and dimethylarsinate (DMA), respectively, with recoveries close to 100%, The detection limits were 1.0, 1.3 and 3 ng for As-i, MMA and DMA, respectively. The method was then used to analyse urine samples obtained from three groups of workers for occupational exposure in three companies where copper chrome arsenate was used for timber treatment. The results were compared with those for a normal control group of laboratory workers. Arsenic and its metabolites were also measured in experimental rats given 5 mg As kg(-1) body mass by oral gavage in the form of sodium arsenite, calcium arsenite or sodium arsenate. Occupational workers showed a significantly higher excretion of As-i, Up to two fold increases of urinary As-i excretion in rats compared with control rats were also observed in animals dosed with various forms of arsenicals. The method is suitable for the measurement of arsenic metabolites in urine of both humans and experimental animals.