Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

Parâmetros bioquímicos foliares das espécies Licania tomentosa (Benth.) e Bauhinia forficata (Link.) para avaliação da qualidade do ar

Foliar analysis of biochemical parameters were carried out in order to investigate the influence of air pollutants on two tropical tree species (Licania tomentosa (Benth.) and Bauhinia forfícata (Link.)). Special attention was given to tropospheric ozone due to the fact that concentration levels in the region were found to be up to 140 µg m-3 for a 4 h average time, which is well above the value that can cause injuries to orchides and tobacco (59 µg m-3). Other pollutants such as nitrogen and sulphur oxides were measured and their ambient concentrations were also associated to biochemical alterations in the investigated species.

CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK FINANCIAL DISTRESS

ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

Statistical classification of road pavements using near field vehicle rolling noise measurements

Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.

Occupational exposure to perchloroethylene in Portuguese dry-cleaning stores

Perchloroethylene (also known as tetrachloroethylene) is a solvent that has been a mainstay of the dry cleaning industry for decades. Since 1995 the International Agency for Research on Cancer considers that dry cleaning entails exposures that are possibly carcinogenic to humans (Group 2B). Meanwhile, the same institution classified perchloroethylene as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). Some industries have begun using alternative cleaning methods that do not require the use of perchloroethylene. However, in Portugal this solvent is still the most common dry-cleaning agent. An exploratory study was developed that aimed to find the occupational exposure to perchloroethylene in four Portuguese dry-cleaning stores. Activities involving higher exposure and variables that promote exposure were also investigated. Real-time measurements of volatile organic compounds concentrations were performed using portable equipment (MultiRAE, RAE Systems model – calibrated by isobutylene).

Comparison of fungal contamination between hospitals and companies food units

A descriptive study was developed to compare air and surfaces fungal contamination in ten hospitals’ food units and two food units from companies. Fifty air samples of 250 litres through impaction method were collected from hospitals’ food units and 41 swab samples from surfaces were also collected, using a 10 by 10 cm square stencil. Regarding the two companies, ten air samples and eight surface samples were collected. Air and surface samples were collected in food storage facilities, kitchen, food plating and canteen. Outdoor air was also collected since this is the place regarded as a reference. Simultaneously, temperature, relative humidity and meal numbers were registered. Concerning air from hospitals’ food units, 32 fungal species were identified, being the two most commonly isolated genera Penicillium sp.

Lichens as biomonitors at indoor environments of primary schools

A biomonitoring study, using transplanted lichens Flavoparmelia caperata, was conducted to assess the indoor air quality in primary schools in urban (Lisbon) and rural (Ponte de Sor) Portuguese sites. The lichens exposure period occurred between April and June 2010 and two types of environments of the primary schools were studied: classrooms and outdoor/courtyard. Afterwards, the lichen samples were processed and analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) to assess a total of 20 chemical elements. Accumulated elements in the exposed lichens were assessed and enrichment factors (EF) were determined. Indoor and outdoor biomonitoring results were compared to evaluate how biomonitors (as lichens) react at indoor environments and to assess the type of pollutants that are prevalent in those environments.

Indoor school environment: easy and low cost to assess inorganic pollutants

Total particulate matter (TPM) was passively collected inside two classrooms of each of five elementary schools in Lisbon, Portugal. TPM was collected in polycarbonate filters with a 47 mm diameter, placed inside of uncovered plastic petri dishes. The sampling period was from 19 May to 22 June 2009 (35 days exposure) and the collected TPM masses varied between 0.2 mg and 0.8 mg. The major elements were Ca, Fe, Na, K, and Zn at μg level, while others were at ng level. Pearson′s correlation coefficients above 0.75 (a high degree of correlation) were found between several elements. Soil-related, traffic soil re-suspension and anthropogenic emission sources could be identified. Blackboard chalk was also identified through Ca large presence. Some of the determined chemical elements are potential carcinogenic. Quality control of the results showed good agreement as confirmed by the application of u-score test.

Fungi, bacteria and pollens seasonally quantified at 3 basic schools in Lisbon: evaluation of ventilation need

Nowadays, most individuals spend about 80% of their time indoor and, consequently, the exposure to the indoor environment becomes more relevant than to the outdoor one. Children spend most of their time at home and at school and evaluations of their indoor environment are important for the time-weighted exposure. Due to their airways still in development, children are a sensitive group with higher risk than adults. Larger impact in health and educational performance of children demand indoor air quality studies of schools. The aim of this study was to assess the children exposure to bioaerosols. A methodology based upon passive sampling was applied to evaluate fungi, bacteria and pollens; its procedures and applicability was optimized. An indoor air study by passive sampling represents an easier and cheaper method when comparing with the use of automatic active samplers. Furthermore, it is possible to achieve important quality information without interfering in the classroom activities. The study was conducted in three schools, representative of different environments in the Lisbon urban area, at three different periods of the year to obtain a seasonal variation, to estimate the variability through the city and to understand the underneath causes. Fungi and bacteria were collected indoor and outdoor of the classrooms to determine the indoor/outdoor ratios and to assess the level of outdoor contamination upon the indoor environment. The children's exposure to pollen grains inside the classrooms was also assessed.

Análise comparativa dos modelos regulamentares de previsão da retracção do betão

A adequada previsão do comportamento diferido do betão, designadamente da retracção, é essencial no projecto de uma obra de grandes dimensões, permitindo conceber, dimensionar e adoptar as disposições construtivas para um comportamento estrutural que satisfaça os requisitos de segurança, utilização e durabilidade. O actual momento é marcado por uma transição em termos da regulamentação de estruturas, com a eminente substituição da regulamentação nacional por regulamentação europeia. No caso das estruturas de betão, o Regulamento de Estruturas de Betão Armado e Pré-Esforçado (REBAP), em vigor desde 1983, será substituído pelo Eurocódigo 2. Paralelamente, a Federation International du Betón publicou o Model Code 2010 (MC2010), um documento que certamente terá forte influência na evolução da regulamentação das estruturas de betão. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho tem como objectivo estabelecer uma comparação entre os diferentes modelos de previsão da retracção incluídos nos documentos normativos referidos, identificando as principais diferenças e semelhanças entre eles e quantificando a influência dos diferentes factores considerados na sua formulação, de forma a avaliar o impacto que a introdução destes modelos de previsão irá ter no projecto de estruturas de betão. Com o propósito de aferir a forma como estes modelos reflectem a realidade do fenómeno em estudo, procedeu-se à aplicação destes modelos de previsão ao betão de duas obras cujo comportamento estrutural é observado pelo LNEC, concretamente a ponte Miguel Torga, sobre o rio Douro, na Régua, e a ponte sobre o rio Angueira, no distrito de Bragança. Em ambas as obras tinha sido efectuada a caracterização in situ da retracção, tendo-se comparado os valores experimentais assim obtidos com os valores provenientes da aplicação dos modelos de previsão considerados neste trabalho. Finalmente são apresentadas algumas conclusões obtidas com o trabalho desenvolvido nesta dissertação, bem como algumas sugestões para desenvolvimentos futuros.

Síndroma dos edifícios doentes: estudo da qualidade do ar interior e despiste da eventual existência de SED entre a população do edifício “E” de um estabelecimento de ensino superior

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no Trabalho.

Assessment of exposure to airborne ultrafine particles in the urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal

The aim of this study was the assessment of exposure to ultrafine in the urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal, due to automobile traffic, and consisted of the determination of deposited alveolar surface area in an avenue leading to the town center during late spring. This study revealed differentiated patterns for weekdays and weekends, which could be related with the fluxes of automobile traffic. During a typical week, ultrafine particles alveolar deposited surface area varied between 35.0 and 89.2 μm2/cm3, which is comparable with levels reported for other towns such in Germany and the United States. These measurements were also complemented by measuring the electrical mobility diameter (varying from 18.3 to 128.3 nm) and number of particles that showed higher values than those previously reported for Madrid and Brisbane. Also, electron microscopy showed that the collected particles were composed of carbonaceous agglomerates, typical of particles emitted by the exhaustion of diesel vehicles. Implications: The approach of this study considers the measurement of surface deposited alveolar area of particles in the outdoor urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal. This type of measurements has not been done so far. Only particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 (PM2.5) and >10 (PM10) μm have been measured in outdoor environments and the levels found cannot be found responsible for all the observed health effects. Therefore, the exposure to nano- and ultrafine particles has not been assessed systematically, and several authors consider this as a real knowledge gap and claim for data such as these that will allow for deriving better and more comprehensive epidemiologic studies. Nanoparticle surface area monitor (NSAM) equipments are recent ones and their use has been limited to indoor atmospheres. However, as this study shows, NSAM is a very powerful tool for outdoor environments also. As most lung diseases are, in fact, related to deposition of the alveolar region of the lung, the metric used in this study is the ideal one.