Interaction between GIS and hydrologic model: a preliminary approach using ArcHydro Framework Data Model

In different regions of Brazil, population growth and economic development can degrade water quality, compromising watershed health and human supply. Because of its ability to combine spatial and temporal data in the same environment and to create water resources management (WRM) models, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is a powerful tool for managing water resources, preventing floods and estimating water supply. This paper discusses the integration between GIS and hydrological models and presents a case study relating to the upper section of the Paraíba do Sul Basin (Sao Paulo State portion), situated in the Southeast of Brazil. The case study presented in this paper has a database suitable for the basin's dimensions, including digitized topographic maps at a 50,000 scale. From an ArcGIS®/ArcHydro Framework Data Model, a geometric network was created to produce different raster products. This first grid derived from the digital elevation model grid (DEM) is the flow direction map followed by flow accumulation, stream and catchment maps. The next steps in this research are to include the different multipurpose reservoirs situated along the Paraíba do Sul River and to incorporate rainfall time series data in ArcHydro to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment in order to produce a comprehensive spatial-temporal model.

Sexual abuse and alcohol use among women in metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil: a general population study

OBJECTIVE:The present study aimed at estimating the prevalence of lifetime sexual abuse among women and at investigating its association with alcohol consumption.METHOD:Population-based survey conducted through a representative and stratified cluster sample of metropolitan São Paulo. GENACIS questionnaire was used. Sample unit was the home, and all residents aged 18 years and over were interviewed. The outcome was lifetime sexual abuse. The univariate statistical analysis used the Rao-Scott test. Logistic regression was used for the multivariate analysis.RESULTS:The final sample totalized 1,216 women aged 18 years and over; the response rate was 75.0%. Most women were married (56.6%) and had less than 12 years of formal education (59.0%); 46.2% were aged between 25 and 44 years, and 44.4% had a low income. Of the respondents, 7.5% reported having suffered lifetime sexual abuse. Multiple logistic regression model showed an association between lifetime sexual abuse and being a heavy drinker (OR = 4.97) and being a former drinker (OR = 2.04).CONCLUSIONS:There are few population studies in Brazil investigating sexual abuse and its relation to alcohol use. Although the prevalence of lifetime sexual abuse in the present study was smaller than that observed in other studies, it is a highly expressive percentage on account of its social and economic impact, as well as its potential effect on the health system.

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of criteria for metabolic syndrome in a population-based study of Japanese-Brazilians

Objective: Criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS) differ particularly regarding the definition of central obesity and consequently, there could be differences in the assessment of cardiovascular risk. We estimated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, compared the agreement of the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria with the standard and a modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criterion and investigated whether additional factors were associated with the diagnosis of the syndrome in a Japanese descendant population.Methods: In this cross-sectional, population-based survey, 1166 Japanese-Brazilians (533 men, 633 women) aged 57.4 +/- 12.4 years with mean body mass index (BMI) and waist of 25.2 +/- 4.0 kg/m(2) and 84.5 +/- 10.6 cm, respectively, were included. McNemar and kappa statistics were used to assess the concordance between WHO criteria with the standard and a modified NCEP criteria (waist of 90 and 80 cm, for men and women, respectively). in logistic regression analysis, a number of metabolic variables and albumin-to-creatinine ratio were included to test independent associations with metabolic syndrome defined by the modified NCEP criteria.Results: According to WHO, 55.4% (95% Cl 52.5-58.2%) of the subjects had MS and to NCEP 47.4% (95% Cl 44.6-50.0%). WHO criterion detected 48.3% of central obese subjects while NCEP only 14.0%. Kappa statistics showed a good strength of agreement (k = 0.67, p < 0.01) between WHO and NCEP standard definitions of MS. Using the modified NCEP criterion for Asians, more subjects with metabolic syndrome were identified (58%) and agreement with WHO was improved (k = 0.72, p < 0.001). However, similar Framingham risk scores were attributed to the subsets of subjects classified by any of the three criteria. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves, obtained for the modified waist values to diagnose metabolic syndrome according to WHO, were > 0.80 and corresponded, respectively, to sensitivity and specificity of 63 and 83% for men and 77 and 72% for women. In final logistic regression model, age, male sex, BMI and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance but not with albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were independently associated with the syndrome.Conclusions: High prevalence of MS, independent of the criterion considered, was found in this Japanese-Brazilian population. The replacement of waist cutoff by those proposed by WHO for Asians lead to this diagnosis in a higher number of subjects with elevated cardiovascular risk. Our data did not support that ACR should be included in the classical definition of MS in Japanese descendants as previously suggested by WHO.

Simulating Population Genetics of Pathogen Vectors in Changing Landscapes: Guidelines and Application with Triatoma brasiliensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population structure, sex ratio and growth of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Decapoda, Penaeidae) from coastal waters of southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cell therapy in experimental model of inflammatory bowel disease

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Reading model to estimate optimum economic intakes of amino acids for poultry

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Aspects of the activity rhythm and population size of troglophilic mygalomorph spiders (Trechona sp., Dipluridae) in a quartzite cave in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Allee effects and population spread in patchy landscapes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The optimal lysine and threonine intake for Cobb broiler breeder hens using Reading model

This study aimed to determine the optimal intake of lysine and threonine for broiler breeder hens. Two experiments were conducted to evaluate the responses of birds to digestible lysine (Lys) and threonine (Thr). Eight treatments were assessed in both experiments, with six replicates of eight birds in the Lys experiment and ten birds in the Thr experiment. The dietary levels of Lys and Thr were obtained by a dilution technique. The experimental period was ten weeks for each amino acid studied, which included six weeks of adaptation and four weeks of data collection. The amino acid intake, egg mass and body weight were adjusted using a Reading model. Based on the model coefficients, the cost of the synthetic amino acids sources and the price of fertile eggs determined the intake of each amino acid to maximize. The minimum intake of Lys and Thr reduced egg production by 40 and 30%, respectively, the weight of the eggs decreased by 12 and 9% with the same intake of Lys and Thr, respectively. The models generated by predicting Lys and Thr intake were as follows: Lys=11 x E+31 x W and Thr=9.5 x E+32 x W, where E=egg mass, g/bird per day, and W=body weight, kg/bird. Based on the models, 3 kg birds with an egg mass production of 50 g/day require 643 mg/bird per day of Lys and 569 mg/bird per day of Thr. The optimum economic intake was calculated at 954 and 834 mg/bird per day for Lys and Thr, respectively, reflecting a dietary concentration of 0.636% Lys and 0.556% Thr for a feed intake of 150 g/bird per day. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the relationship between entomologic indicators of Aedes aegypti and the epidemic occurrence of dengue virus 3 in a susceptible population, São José do Rio Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator-prey system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)