Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Seasonal dynamics and operational monitoring of hedgerow olive tree transpiration in response to applied water

We used 2012 sap flow measurements to assess the seasonal dynamics of daily plant transpiration (ETc) in a high-density olive orchard (Olea europaea L. cv. ‘Arbequina’) with a well-watered (HI) control treatment A to supply 100 % of the crop water needs, and a moderately (MI) watered treatment B that replaced 70% of crop needs. To assure that treatment A was well-watered, we compared field daily ETc values against ETc obtained with the Penman-Monteith (PM) combination equation incorporating the Orgaz et al. (2007) bulk daily canopy conductance (gc) model, validated for our non-limiting conditions. We then tested the hypothesis of indirectly monitoring olive ETc from readily available vegetation index (VI) and ground-based plant water stress indicator. In the process we used the FAO56 dual crop coefficient (Kc) approach. For the HI olive trees we defined Kcb as the basal transpiration coefficient, and we related Kcb to remotely sensed Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) through a Kcb-SAVI functional relationship. For the MI treatment, we defined the actual transpiration ETc as the product of Kcb and the stress reduction coefficient Ks obtained as the ratio of actual to crop ETc, and we correlated Ks with MI midday stem water potential (ψst) values through a Ks-ψ functional relationship. Operational monitoring of ETc was then implemented with the ETc = Kcb(SAVI)Ks(ψ)ETo relationship stemmed from the FAO56 approach and validated taking as inputs collected SAVI and ψst data reporting to year 2011. Low validation error (6%) and high goodness-of-fit of prediction were observed (R2 = 0.94, RSME = 0.2 mm day-1, P = 0.0015), allowing to consider that under field conditions it is possible to predict ETc values for our hedgerow olive orchards if SAVI and water potential (ψst) values are known.

Study of the effectiveness of crystal growth modifiers in the prevention of damage due to crystallization of sodium carbonates in stone artworks

The disintegration of stone materials used in sculpture and architecture due to the crystallization of salts is capable of irreparably damaging artistic objects and historic buildings. A number of phosphonates and carboxylates were tested here as potential crystallization modifiers for sodium carbonate crystallization. Precipitated phases during crystallization induced either by cooling or by evaporation tests were nahcolite (NaHCO3), natron (Na2CO3∙10H2O) and thermonatrite (Na2CO3∙H2O), identified using X-ray diffraction. By using the thermodynamic code PHREEQC and the calculation of the nucleation rate it was demonstrated that nahcolite had to be first phase formed during both tests. The formation of the other phases depended on the experimental conditions under which the two tests were conducted. Nahcolite nucleation is strongly inhibited in the presence of sodium citrate tribasic dihydrate (CA), polyacrylic acid 2100MW (PA) and etidronic acid (HEDP), when the additives are dosed at appropriate concentrations and the pH range of the resulting solution is about 8. Electrostatic attraction generated between the deprotonated organic additives and the cations present in solution appears to be the principal mechanism of additive-nahcolite interaction. Salt weathering tests, in addition to mercury intrusion porosimetry tests allowed to quantify the damage induced by such salts. FESEM observation of both salts grown on calcite single crystals and in limestone blocks subjected to salt crystallization tests allowed to identify the effect of these additives on crystal growth and development. The results show that PA seems to be the best inhibitor, while CA and HEDP, which show similar behaviors, are slightly less effective. The use of such effective crystallization inhibitors may lead to more efficient preventive conservation of ornamental stone affected by crystallization damage due to formation of sodium carbonate crystals.

Thermodynamic Study Of The Micellization Of Zwitterionic Surfactants And Their Interaction With Polymers In Water By Isothermal Titration Calorimetry.

The micellization of a homologous series of zwitterionic surfactants, a group of sulfobetaines, was studied using isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) in the temperature range from 15 to 65 °C. The increase in both temperature and the alkyl chain length leads to more negative values of ΔGmic(0) , favoring the micellization. The entropic term (ΔSmic(0)) is predominant at lower temperatures, and above ca. 55-65 °C, the enthalpic term (ΔHmic(0)) becomes prevalent, figuring a jointly driven process as the temperature increases. The interaction of these sulfobetaines with different polymers was also studied by ITC. Among the polymers studied, only two induced the formation of micellar aggregates at lower surfactant concentration: poly(acrylic acid), PAA, probably due to the formation of hydrogen bonds between the carboxylic group of the polymer and the sulfonate group of the surfactant, and poly(sodium 4-styrenesulfonate), PSS, probably due to the incorporation of the hydrophobic styrene group into the micelles. The prevalence of the hydrophobic and not the electrostatic contributions to the interaction between sulfobetaine and PSS was confirmed by an increased interaction enthalpy in the presence of electrolytes (NaCl) and by the observation of a significant temperature dependence, the latter consistent with the proposed removal of hydrophobic groups from water.

Environmental Controls In The Water Use Patterns Of A Tropical Cloud Forest Tree Species, Drimys Brasiliensis (winteraceae).

Trees from tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) display very dynamic patterns of water use. They are capable of downwards water transport towards the soil during leaf-wetting events, likely a consequence of foliar water uptake (FWU), as well as high rates of night-time transpiration (Enight) during drier nights. These two processes might represent important sources of water losses and gains to the plant, but little is known about the environmental factors controlling these water fluxes. We evaluated how contrasting atmospheric and soil water conditions control diurnal, nocturnal and seasonal dynamics of sap flow in Drimys brasiliensis (Miers), a common Neotropical cloud forest species. We monitored the seasonal variation of soil water content, micrometeorological conditions and sap flow of D. brasiliensis trees in the field during wet and dry seasons. We also conducted a greenhouse experiment exposing D. brasiliensis saplings under contrasting soil water conditions to deuterium-labelled fog water. We found that during the night D. brasiliensis possesses heightened stomatal sensitivity to soil drought and vapour pressure deficit, which reduces night-time water loss. Leaf-wetting events had a strong suppressive effect on tree transpiration (E). Foliar water uptake increased in magnitude with drier soil and during longer leaf-wetting events. The difference between diurnal and nocturnal stomatal behaviour in D. brasiliensis could be attributed to an optimization of carbon gain when leaves are dry, as well as minimization of nocturnal water loss. The leaf-wetting events on the other hand seem important to D. brasiliensis water balance, especially during soil droughts, both by suppressing tree transpiration (E) and as a small additional water supply through FWU. Our results suggest that decreases in leaf-wetting events in TMCF might increase D. brasiliensis water loss and decrease its water gains, which could compromise its ecophysiological performance and survival during dry periods.

Population dynamics: seasonal variation of phytoplankton functional groups in brazilian reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga, São Paulo)

Phytoplankton may function as a "sensor" of changes in aquatic environment and responds rapidly to such changes. In freshwaters, coexistence of species that have similar ecological requirements and show the same environmental requirements frequently occurs; such species groups are named functional groups. The use of phytoplankton functional groups to evaluate these changes has proven to be very useful and effective. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of functional groups of phytoplankton in two reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga) that supply water to millions of people in São Paulo city Metropolitan Area, southeastern Brazil. Surface water samples were collected monthly and physical, chemical and biological (quantitative and qualitative analyses of the phytoplankton) were performed. The highest biovolume (mm³.L-1) of the descriptor species and functional groups were represented respectively by Anabaena circinalis Rabenh. (H1), Microcystis aeruginosa (Kützing) Kützing (L M/M) and Mougeotia sp. (T) in the Guarapiranga reservoir and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolosz.) Seen. and Subba Raju (S N), Microcystis aeruginosa and M. panniformis Komárek et al. (L M/M), Planktothrix agardhii (Gom.) Anagn. and Komárek and P. cf. clathrata (Skuja) Anagn. and Komárek (S1) in the Billings reservoir. The environmental factors that most influenced the phytoplankton dynamics were water temperature, euphotic zone, turbidity, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nitrate and total phosphorous.

Delocalized water and fluoride contributions to Dyson orbitals for electron detachment from the hydrated fluoride anion

The experimental vertical electron detachment energy (VEDE) of aqueous fluoride, [F(-)(H(2)O)], is approximately 9.8 eV, but spectral assignment is complicated by interference between F(-) 2p and H(2)O 1b(1) orbitals. The electronic structure of [F(-)(H(2)O)] is analyzed with Monte Carlo and ab initio quantum-mechanical calculations. Electron-propagator calculations in the partial third-order approximation yield a VEDE of 9.4 eV. None of the Dyson orbitals corresponding to valence VEDEs consists primarily of F 2p functions. These results and ground-state atomic charges indicate that the final, neutral state is more appropriately described as [F(-)(H(2)O)(+)] than as [F(H(2)O)]. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3431081]

Study of the optical and magnetic properties of pyrimidine in water combining PCM and QM/MM methodologies

The solvent effects on the low-lying absorption spectrum and on the (15)N chemical shielding of pyrimidine in water are calculated using the combined and sequential Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanical calculations. Special attention is devoted to the solute polarization. This is included by an iterative procedure previously developed where the solute is electrostatically equilibrated with the solvent. In addition, we verify the simple yet unexplored alternative of combining the polarizable continuum model (PCM) and the hybrid QM/MM method. We use PCM to obtain the average solute polarization and include this in the MM part of the sequential QM/MM methodology, PCM-MM/QM. These procedures are compared and further used in the discrete and the explicit solvent models. The use of the PCM polarization implemented in the MM part seems to generate a very good description of the average solute polarization leading to very good results for the n-pi* excitation energy and the (15)N nuclear chemical shield of pyrimidine in aqueous environment. The best results obtained here using the solute pyrimidine surrounded by 28 explicit water molecules embedded in the electrostatic field of the remaining 472 molecules give the statistically converged values for the low lying n-pi* absorption transition in water of 36 900 +/- 100 (PCM polarization) and 36 950 +/- 100 cm(-1) (iterative polarization), in excellent agreement among one another and with the experimental value observed with a band maximum at 36 900 cm(-1). For the nuclear shielding (15)N the corresponding gas-water chemical shift obtained using the solute pyrimidine surrounded by 9 explicit water molecules embedded in the electrostatic field of the remaining 491 molecules give the statistically converged values of 24.4 +/- 0.8 and 28.5 +/- 0.8 ppm, compared with the inferred experimental value of 19 +/- 2 ppm. Considering the simplicity of the PCM over the iterative polarization this is an important aspect and the computational savings point to the possibility of dealing with larger solute molecules. This PCM-MM/QM approach reconciles the simplicity of the PCM model with the reliability of the combined QM/MM approaches.

Hydrogen bond interactions between acetone and supercritical water

Hydrogen bond interactions between acetone and supercritical water are investigated using a combined and sequential Monte Carlo/quantum mechanics (S-MC/QM) approach. Simulation results show a dominant presence of con. gurations with one hydrogen bond for different supercritical states, indicating that this specific interaction plays an important role on the solvation properties of acetone in supercritical water. Using QM MP2/aug-cc-pVDZ the calculated average interaction energy reveals that the hydrogen-bonded acetone-water complex is energetically more stable under supercritical conditions than ambient conditions and its stability is little affected by variations of temperature and/or pressure. All average results reported here are statistically converged.

The isotropic nuclear magnetic shielding constants of acetone in supercritical water: A sequential Monte Carlo/quantum mechanics study including solute polarization

The nuclear isotropic shielding constants sigma((17)O) and sigma((13)C) of the carbonyl bond of acetone in water at supercritical (P=340.2 atm and T=673 K) and normal water conditions have been studied theoretically using Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) method. Statistically uncorrelated configurations have been obtained from Monte Carlo simulations with unpolarized and in-solution polarized solute. The results show that solvent effects on the shielding constants have a significant contribution of the electrostatic interactions and that quantitative estimates for solvent shifts of shielding constants can be obtained modeling the water molecules by point charges (electrostatic embedding). In supercritical water, there is a decrease in the magnitude of sigma((13)C) but a sizable increase in the magnitude of sigma((17)O) when compared with the results obtained in normal water. It is found that the influence of the solute polarization is mild in the supercritical regime but it is particularly important for sigma((17)O) in normal water and its shielding effect reflects the increase in the average number of hydrogen bonds between acetone and water. Changing the solvent environment from normal to supercritical water condition, the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) calculations on the statistically uncorrelated configurations sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation give a (13)C chemical shift of 11.7 +/- 0.6 ppm for polarized acetone in good agreement with the experimentally inferred result of 9-11 ppm. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Electronic properties of liquid ammonia: A sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics approach

The electronic properties of liquid ammonia are investigated by a sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics approach. Quantum mechanics calculations for the liquid phase are based on a reparametrized hybrid exchange-correlation functional that reproduces the electronic properties of ammonia clusters [(NH(3))(n); n=1-5]. For these small clusters, electron binding energies based on Green's function or electron propagator theory, coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations, and density functional theory (DFT) are compared. Reparametrized DFT results for the dipole moment, electron binding energies, and electronic density of states of liquid ammonia are reported. The calculated average dipole moment of liquid ammonia (2.05 +/- 0.09 D) corresponds to an increase of 27% compared to the gas phase value and it is 0.23 D above a prediction based on a polarizable model of liquid ammonia [Deng , J. Chem. Phys. 100, 7590 (1994)]. Our estimate for the ionization potential of liquid ammonia is 9.74 +/- 0.73 eV, which is approximately 1.0 eV below the gas phase value for the isolated molecule. The theoretical vertical electron affinity of liquid ammonia is predicted as 0.16 +/- 0.22 eV, in good agreement with the experimental result for the location of the bottom of the conduction band (-V(0)=0.2 eV). Vertical ionization potentials and electron affinities correlate with the total dipole moment of ammonia aggregates. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Atomistic molecular dynamics study of interface formation: Al on poly(p-phenylene vinylene)

We model interface formation by metal deposition on the conjugated polymer poly-para-phenylene vinylene, studying direct aluminum and layered aluminum-calcium structures Al/PPV and Al/Ca/PPV. To do that we use classical molecular dynamics simulations, checked by ab initio density-functional theory calculations, for selected relevant configurations. We find that Al not only migrates easily into the film, with a strong charge transfer to the neighboring chains, but also promotes rearrangement of the polymer in the interfacial region to the hexagonal structure. On the other hand, our results indicate that a thin Ca layer is sufficient to protect the film and maintain a well-defined metal/polymer interface, and that also a thin Al capping layer may protect the whole from environmental degradation.

Adiabatic intramolecular movements for water systems

An effective treatment of the intramolecular degrees of freedom is presented for water, where these modes are decoupled from the intermolecular ones, ""adiabatically"" allowing these coordinates to be positioned at their local minimum of the potential energy surface. We perform ab initio Monte Carlo simulations with the configurational energies obtained via density functional theory. We study a water dimer as a prototype system, and even in this simple case the intramolecular relaxations are very important to properly describe properties such as the dipole moment. We show that rigid simulations do not correctly sample the phase space, resulting in an average dipole moment smaller than the one obtained with the adiabatic model, which is closer to the experimental result. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Polarization effects in molecular dynamics simulations of glass-formers Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot nH(2)O, n=4, 6, and 8

Thermodynamics, equilibrium structure, and dynamics of glass-forming liquids Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot nH(2)O, n=4, 6, and 8, have been investigated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. A polarizable model was considered for H(2)O and NO(3)- on the basis of previous fluctuating charge models for pure water and the molten salt 2Ca(NO(3))(2)center dot 3KNO(3). Similar thermodynamic properties have been obtained with nonpolarizable and polarizable models. The glass transition temperature, T(g), estimated from MD simulations was dependent on polarization, in particular the dependence of T(g) with electrolyte concentration. Significant polarization effects on equilibrium structure were observed in cation-cation, cation-anion, and water-water structures. Polarization increases the diffusion coefficient of H(2)O, but does not change significantly the diffusion coefficients of ions. Viscosity decreases upon inclusion of polarization, but the conductivity calculated with the polarizable model is smaller than the nonpolarizable model because polarization enhances anion-cation interactions.