Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

How soccer players head the ball: a test of optic acceleration cancellation theory with virtual reality

We measured the movements of soccer players heading a football in a fully immersive virtual reality environment. In mid-flight the ball’s trajectory was altered from its normal quasi-parabolic path to a linear one, producing a jump in the rate of change of the angle of elevation of gaze (α) from player to ball. One reaction time later the players adjusted their speed so that the rate of change of α increased when it had been reduced and reduced it when it had been increased. Since the result of the player’s movement was to regain a value of the rate of change close to that before the disturbance, the data suggest that the players have an expectation of, and memory for, the pattern that the rate of change of α will follow during the flight. The results support the general claim that players intercepting balls use servo control strategies and are consistent with the particular claim of Optic Acceleration Cancellation theory that the servo strategy is to allow α to increase at a steadily decreasing rate.

Novel concepts for a planetary surface exploration rover

Purpose - This paper aims to address some of the needs of present and upcoming rover designs, and introduces novel concepts incorporated in a planetary surface exploration rover design that is currently under development. Design/methodology/approach - The Multitasking Rover (MTR) is a highly re-configurable system that aims to demonstrate functionality that will cover many of the current and future needs such as rough-terrain mobility, modularity and upgradeability. It comprises a surface mobility platform which is highly re-configurable, which offers centre of mass re-allocation and rough terrain stability, and also a set of science/tool packs - individual subsystems encapsulated in packs which the rover picks up, transports and deploys. Findings - Early testing of the suspension system suggests exceptional performance characteristics. Originality/value - Principles employed in the design of the MTR can be used in future rover systems to reduce associated mission costs and at the same time provide multiples the functionality.

Fusing data-mining and knowledge elicitation for the supervisory control of an aluminium plate mill

Knowledge-elicitation is a common technique used to produce rules about the operation of a plant from the knowledge that is available from human expertise. Similarly, data-mining is becoming a popular technique to extract rules from the data available from the operation of a plant. In the work reported here knowledge was required to enable the supervisory control of an aluminium hot strip mill by the determination of mill set-points. A method was developed to fuse knowledge-elicitation and data-mining to incorporate the best aspects of each technique, whilst avoiding known problems. Utilisation of the knowledge was through an expert system, which determined schedules of set-points and provided information to human operators. The results show that the method proposed in this paper was effective in producing rules for the on-line control of a complex industrial process.

Design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based system for the supervisory control of a hot rolling mill

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based supervisory control (IKBSC) system for a hot rolling mill process. A novel architecture is used to integrate an expert system with an existing supervisory control system and a new optimization methodology for scheduling the soaking pits in which the material is heated prior to rolling. The resulting IKBSC system was applied to an aluminium hot rolling mill process to improve the shape quality of low-gauge plate and to optimise the use of the soaking pits to reduce energy consumption. The results from the trials demonstrate the advantages to be gained from the IKBSC system that integrates knowledge contained within data, plant and human resources with existing model-based systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The north Atlantic marine oundary layer experiment (NAMBLEX): Overview of the campaign held at Mace Head, Ireland, in summer 2002

The North Atlantic Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (NAMBLEX), involving over 50 scientists from 12 institutions, took place at Mace Head, Ireland (53.32° N, 9.90° W), between 23 July and 4 September 2002. A wide range of state-of-the-art instrumentation enabled detailed measurements of the boundary layer structure and atmospheric composition in the gas and aerosol phase to be made, providing one of the most comprehensive in situ studies of the marine boundary layer to date. This overview paper describes the aims of the NAMBLEX project in the context of previous field campaigns in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL), the overall layout of the site, a summary of the instrumentation deployed, the temporal coverage of the measurement data, and the numerical models used to interpret the field data. Measurements of some trace species were made for the first time during the campaign, which was characterised by predominantly clean air of marine origin, but more polluted air with higher levels of NOx originating from continental regions was also experienced. This paper provides a summary of the meteorological measurements and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) structure measurements, presents time series of some of the longer-lived trace species (O3, CO, H2, DMS, CH4, NMHC, NOx, NOy, PAN) and summarises measurements of other species that are described in more detail in other papers within this special issue, namely oxygenated VOCs, HCHO, peroxides, organo-halogenated species, a range of shorter lived halogen species (I2, OIO, IO, BrO), NO3 radicals, photolysis frequencies, the free radicals OH, HO2 and (HO2+Σ RO2), as well as a summary of the aerosol measurements. NAMBLEX was supported by measurements made in the vicinity of Mace Head using the NERC Dornier-228 aircraft. Using ECMWF wind-fields, calculations were made of the air-mass trajectories arriving at Mace Head during NAMBLEX, and were analysed together with both meteorological and trace-gas measurements. In this paper a chemical climatology for the duration of the campaign is presented to interpret the distribution of air-mass origins and emission sources, and to provide a convenient framework of air-mass classification that is used by other papers in this issue for the interpretation of observed variability in levels of trace gases and aerosols.

The death of John Stuart Mill

This article surveys the fiercely contested posthumous assessments of John Stuart Mill in the newspaper and periodical press, in the months following his death in May 1873, and elicits the broader intellectual context. Judgements made in the immediate wake of Mill's death influence biographers and historians to this day and provide an illuminating aperture into the politics and shifting ideological forces of the period. The article considers how Mill's failure to control his posthumous reputation demonstrates both the inextricable intertwining of politics and character in the 1870s, and the difficulties his allies faced. In particular, it shows the sharp division between Mill's middle and working class admirers; the use of James Mill's name as a rebuke to his son; the redefinition of Malthusianism in the 1870s; and how publication of Mill's Autobiography damaged his reputation. Finally, the article considers the relative absence of both theological and Darwinian critiques of Mill.