Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Proteomics and phylogenetic analysis of the cathepsin L protease family of the helminth pathogen Fasciola hepatica:Expansion of a repertoire of virulence-associated factors

Cathepsin L proteases secreted by the helminth pathogen Fasciola hepatica have functions in parasite virulence including tissue invasion and suppression of host immune responses. Using proteomics methods alongside phylogenetic studies we characterized the profile of cathepsin L proteases secreted by adult F. hepatica and hence identified those involved in host-pathogen interaction. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the Fasciola cathepsin L gene family expanded by a series of gene duplications followed by divergence that gave rise to three clades associated with mature adult worms (Clades 1, 2, and 5) and two clades specific to infective juvenile stages (Clades 3 and 4). Consistent with these observations our proteomics studies identified representatives from Clades 1, 2, and 5 but not from Clades 3 and 4 in adult F. hepatica secretory products. Clades 1 and 2 account for 67.39 and 27.63% of total secreted cathepsin Ls, respectively, suggesting that their expansion was positively driven and that these proteases are most critical for parasite survival and adaptation. Sequence comparison studies revealed that the expansion of cathepsin Ls by gene duplication was followed by residue changes in the S2 pocket of the active site. Our biochemical studies showed that these changes result in alterations in substrate binding and suggested that the divergence of the cathepsin L family produced a repertoire of enzymes with overlapping and complementary substrate specificities that could cleave host macromolecules more efficiently. Although the cathepsin Ls are produced as zymogens containing a prosegment and mature domain, all secreted enzymes identified by MS were processed to mature active enzymes. The prosegment region was highly conserved between the clades except at the boundary of prosegment and mature enzyme. Despite the lack of conservation at this section, sites for exogenous cleavage by asparaginyl endopeptidases and a Leu-Ser[downward arrow]His motif for autocatalytic cleavage by cathepsin Ls were preserved.

Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis of the genus Orestias (Teleostei: Cyprinodontidae) in the southern Chilean Altiplano: The relevance of ancient and recent divergence processes in speciation

This study presents phylogenetic molecular data of the Chilean species of Orestias to propose an allopatric divergence hypothesis and phylogeographic evidence that suggests the relevance of abiotic factors in promoting population divergence in this complex. The results reveal that diversification is still ongoing, e.g. in the Ascotán salt pan, where populations of Orestias ascotanensis restricted to individual freshwater springs exhibit strong genetic differentiation, reflecting putative independent evolutionary units. Diversification of Orestias in the southern Altiplano may be linked to historical vicariant events and contemporary variation in water level; these processes may have affected the populations from the Plio-Pleistocene until the present.

Brucella abortus and its closest phylogenetic relative, Ochrobactrum spp., differ in outer membrane permeability and cationic peptide resistance

The outer membrane (OM) of the intracellular parasite Brucella abortus is permeable to hydrophobic probes and resistant to destabilization by polycationic peptides and EDTA. The significance of these unusual properties was investigated in a comparative study with the opportunistic pathogens of the genus Ochrobactrum, the closest known Brucella relative. Ochrobactrum spp. OMs were impermeable to hydrophobic probes and sensitive to polymyxin B but resistant to EDTA. These properties were traced to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) because (i) insertion of B. abortus LPS, but not of Escherichia coli LPS, into Ochrobactrum OM increased its permeability; (ii) permeability and polymyxin B binding measured with LPS aggregates paralleled the results with live bacteria; and (iii) the predicted intermediate results were obtained with B. abortus-Ochrobactrum anthropi and E. coli-O. anthropi LPS hybrid aggregates. Although Ochrobactrum was sensitive to polymyxin, self-promoted uptake and bacterial lysis occurred without OM morphological changes, suggesting an unusual OM structural rigidity. Ochrobactrum and B. abortus LPSs showed no differences in phosphate, qualitative fatty acid composition, or acyl chain fluidity. However, Ochrobactrum LPS, but not B. abortus LPS, contained galacturonic acid. B. abortus and Ochrobactrum smooth LPS aggregates had similar size and zeta potential (-12 to -15 mV). Upon saturation with polymyxin, zeta potential became positive (1 mV) for Ochrobactrum smooth LPS while remaining negative (-5 mV) for B. abortus smooth LPS, suggesting hindered access to inner targets. These results show that although Ochrobactrum and Brucella share a basic OM pattern, subtle modifications in LPS core cause markedly different OM properties, possibly reflecting the adaptive evolution of B. abortus to pathogenicity.

Web Services and Incerta Spiriti: A Game Theoretic Approach to Uncertainty

A web-service is a remote computational facility which is made available for general use by means of the internet. An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation which invokes remote services. In this paper game theory is used to analyse the behaviour of orchestration evaluations when underlying web-services are unreliable. Uncertainty profiles are proposed as a means of defining bounds on the number of service failures that can be expected during an orchestration evaluation. An uncertainty profile describes a strategic situation that can be analyzed using a zero-sum angel-daemon game with two competing players: an angel a whose objective is to minimize damage to an orchestration and a daemon d who acts in a destructive fashion. An uncertainty profile is assessed using the value of its angel daemon game. It is shown that uncertainty profiles form a partial order which is monotonic with respect to assessment.

Analysis of Transonic Limit Cycle Oscillations under Uncertainty

For the computation of limit cycle oscillations (LCO) at transonic speeds, CFD is required to capture the nonlinear flow features present. The Harmonic Balance method provides an effective means for the computation of LCOs and this paper exploits its efficiency to investigate the impact of variability (both structural a nd aerodynamic) on the aeroelastic behaviour of a 2 dof aerofoil. A Harmonic Balance inviscid CFD solver is coupled with the structural equations and is validated against time marching analyses. Polynomial chaos expansions are employed for the stochastic investiga tion as a faster alternative to Monte Carlo analysis. Adaptive sampling is employed when discontinuities are present. Uncertainties in aerodynamic parameters are looked at first followed by the inclusion of structural variability. Results show the nonlinear effect of Mach number and it’s interaction with the structural parameters on supercritical LCOs. The bifurcation boundaries are well captured by the polynomial chaos.

An Extended Event Reasoning Framework for Decision Support under Uncertainty

To provide in-time reactions to a large volume of surveil- lance data, uncertainty-enabled event reasoning frameworks for CCTV and sensor based intelligent surveillance system have been integrated to model and infer events of interest. However, most of the existing works do not consider decision making under uncertainty which is important for surveillance operators. In this paper, we extend an event reasoning framework for decision support, which enables our framework to predict, rank and alarm threats from multiple heterogeneous sources.

Prediction of limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty using a Harmonic Balance method

The Harmonic Balance method is an attractive solution for computing periodic responses and can be an alternative to time domain methods, at a reduced computational cost. The current paper investigates using a Harmonic Balance method for simulating limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty. The Harmonic Balance method is used in conjunction with a non-intrusive polynomial-chaos approach to propagate variability and is validated against Monte Carlo analysis. Results show the potential of the approach for a range of nonlinear dynamical systems, including a full wing configuration exhibiting supercritical and subcritical bifurcations, at a fraction of the cost of performing time domain simulations.

An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.