Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction and cause-specific mortality : cohort study

Objective: Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective. Design: The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163). Results: Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample. Conclusion: In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.

Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

Conditional treatment and its effect on recidivism

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the 1985 ”Employment Services for Ex-Offenders” (ESEO) program on recidivism. Initially, the sample has been split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. However, the actual treatment (mainly being job related counseling) only takes place conditional on finding a job, and not having been arrested, for those selected in the treatment group. We use a multiple proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for job seach and recidivism time which incorporates the conditional treatment effect. We find that the program helps to reduce criminal activity, contrary to the result of the previous analysis of this data set. This finding is important for crime prevention policy.

Egg production curve fitting using nonlinear models for selected and nonselected lines of White Leghorn hens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic parameter estimates for live weight and daily live weight gain obtained for Nellore bulls in a test station using different models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimação em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado para dados de sobrevivência correlacionados

We presented in this work two methods of estimation for accelerated failure time models with random e_ects to process grouped survival data. The _rst method, which is implemented in software SAS, by NLMIXED procedure, uses an adapted Gauss-Hermite quadrature to determine marginalized likelihood. The second method, implemented in the free software R, is based on the method of penalized likelihood to estimate the parameters of the model. In the _rst case we describe the main theoretical aspects and, in the second, we briey presented the approach adopted with a simulation study to investigate the performance of the method. We realized implement the models using actual data on the time of operation of oil wells from the Potiguar Basin (RN / CE).

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

Heart Failure After Myocardial Infarction: Clinical Implications and Treatment

Heart failure is a frequent complication of myocardial infarction. Several factors, such as recurrent myocardial ischemia, infarct size, ventricular remodeling, stunned myocardium, mechanical complications, and hibernating myocardium influence the appearance of left ventricular systolic dysfunction after myocardial infarction. Importantly, its presence increases the risk of death by at least 3- to 4-fold. The knowledge of the mechanisms and clinical features are essential for the diagnosis and treatment of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure after myocardial infarction. Therefore, this review will focus on the clinical implications and treatment of heart failure after myocardial infarction.

Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Chromatic stability of acrylic resins of artificial eyes submitted to accelerated aging and polishing

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Differential morphofunctional characteristics and gene expression in fast and slow muscle of rats with monocrotaline-induced heart failure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Morphological aspects of neuromuscular junctions and gene expression of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) in skeletal muscle of rats with heart failure

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Age constraints and fine tuning in variable-mass particle models

VAMP (variable-mass particle) scenarios, in which the mass of the cold dark matter particles is a function of the scalar field responsible for the present acceleration of the Universe, have been proposed as a solution to the cosmic coincidence problem, since in the attractor regime both dark energy and dark matter scale in the same way. We find that only a narrow region in parameter space leads to models with viable values for the Hubble constant and dark energy density today. In the allowed region, the dark energy density starts to dominate around the present epoch and consequently such models cannot solve the coincidence problem. We show that the age of the Universe in this scenario is considerably higher than the age for noncoupled dark energy models, and conclude that more precise independent measurements of the age of the Universe would be useful in distinguishing between coupled and noncoupled dark energy models.

Mini-implant and Nance button for initial retraction of maxillary canines: a prospective study in cast models

OBJETIVO: a ancoragem óssea é fundamental para o sucesso do tratamento de algumas más oclusões, pois permite a aplicação de forças contínuas, diminui o tempo de tratamento e independe da colaboração do paciente. MÉTODOS: o propósito desse trabalho foi comparar, por meio de modelos dentários, a perda de ancoragem após a retração inicial de caninos superiores entre dois grupos. O grupo A utilizou o mini-implante enquanto o grupo B utilizou o Botão de Nance. Para todos os pacientes foram realizados dois modelos (M1 e M2). Os primeiros modelos foram realizados ao início (M1), e os outros ao final da retração inicial de canino (M2). RESULTADOS: todas as medidas foram tabuladas e submetidas à análise estatística. Para verificar o erro sistemático intraexaminador foi utilizado o teste t pareado. Na determinação do erro casual utilizou-se o cálculo de erro proposto por Dahlberg. Para comparação entre as fases Início e Após, foi utilizado o teste t pareado. Para a comparação entre os grupos de mini-implante e Botão de Nance, foi utilizado o teste t de Student para medidas independentes. em todos os testes foi adotado nível de significância de 5% (p<0,05). CONCLUSÃO: ao se medir e comparar em modelos dentários a perda de ancoragem dos molares após a retração inicial de canino utilizando-se dois sistemas de ancoragem distintos (Mini-implante e Botão de Nance), pôde-se observar a inexistência de diferença estatisticamente significativa entre os dois grupos.