Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Main Components of Cow Milk in Iran

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.

ON THE MINIMUM ABSOLUTE VALUE of THE DISCRIMINANT of ABELIAN FIELDS of DEGREE p(2)

Let p be a prime number. A formula for the minimum absolute value of the discriminant of all Abelian extensions of Q of degree p(2) is given in terms of p.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 625 - Unterlagen zu den Vorlesungen "Einführung der Philosophie", "Geschichte des Materialismus" und "Society and Value" (p. VIII 42a-VIII 43,1-2)

"Einführung in die Philosophie", Vorlesung, Wintersemester 1956/57, 1 Heft mit eigenhändigen Notizen, 16 Blatt, davon 4 leer, mit 1 zusätzlichem Blatt; "Geschichte des Materialismus (ausgewählte Kapitel)" (GS 13, S. 397-451), Vorlesung, Sommersemester 1957, 1. Max Horkheimer, eigene Notizen, 1 Heft ohne Einband, 16 Blatt und 3 zusätzliche Blätter, 2. Hilmar Tillack: Ausgearbeitete Nachschrift der Vorlesung Max Horkheimers, Typoskript, 46 Blatt; "Society and Value", Vorlesung Chicago 1957, Heft 1: eigene Notizen, 60 Blatt, davon 13 leer, und zusätzliche 6 Blätter; Heft 2: eigene Notizen, 45 Blatt, davon 30 leer, und zusätzlich 8 Blatt; darin auch enthält: Begriff der Seele seit Leibniz", Vorlesung, Sommersemester 1958;

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 626 - Unterlagen zu den Vorlesungen "Society and Value" und "Die Idee der Freiheit" (p. VIII 43a-VIII 44,1-2)

"Society and Value", Vorlesung Chicago 1957, Heft 1: eigene Notizen, 60 Blatt, davon 13 leer, und zusätzlich 6 Blatt; Heft 2: eigene Notizen, 45 Blatt, davon 30 leer, und zusätzlich 8 Blätter. (Enthält auch: "Begriff der Seele seit Leibniz", Vorlesung Sommersemester 1958); "Die Idee der Freiheit" (GS 13, S. 452-514), Vorlesung Wintersemester 1957/58, eigene Notizen, 1 Heft, 45 Blatt, davon 23 leer, und zusätzlich 25 Blätter; Hilmar Tillack: Ausgearbeitete Nachschrift der Vorlesung Max Horkheimers, Typoskript, 58 Blatt;

The germicidal value of liquor cresolis compositus (U.S.P) /

"May 31, 1907."

Does the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program provide value for money?

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the economic case for the implementation of the Triple P- Positive Parenting Program on a population basis in Queensland, Australia, in order to reduce the prevalence of conduct disorder in children. Method: Threshold analysis was undertaken together with a limited cost-effectiveness analysis. Results: The Triple P-Positive Parenting Program is a dominant intervention; that is, it costs less than the amount it saves, until the reduction in prevalence falls below 7% where net costs become positive. Conclusions: Triple P is likely to be a worthwhile use of limited health funds. The economic case is promising, but further research is required to confirm the study results.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Influence of iodine value on combustion and NOx emission characteristics of a DI diesel engine

Biodiesel is a renewable fuel that has been shown to reduce many exhaust emissions, except oxides of nitrogen (NOx), in diesel engine cars. This is of special concern in inner urban areas that are subject to strict environmental regulations, such as EURO norms. Also, the use of pure biodiesel (B100) is inhibited because of its higher NOx emissions compared to petroleum diesel fuel. The aim of this present work is to investigate the effect of the iodine value and cetane number of various biodiesel fuels obtained from different feed stocks on the combustion and NOx emission characteristics of a direct injection (DI) diesel engine. The biodiesel fuels were chosen from various feed stocks such as coconut, palm kernel, mahua (Madhuca indica), pongamia pinnata, jatropha curcas, rice bran, and sesame seed oils. The experimental results show an approximately linear relationship between iodine value and NOx emissions. The biodiesels obtained from coconut and palm kernel showed lower NOx levels than diesel, but other biodiesels showed an increase in NOx. It was observed that the nature of the fatty acids of the biodiesel fuels had a significant influence on the NOx emissions. Also, the cetane numbers of the biodiesel fuels are affected both premixed combustion and the combustion rate, which further affected the amount of NOx formation. It was concluded that NOx emissions are influenced by many parameters of biodiesel fuels, particularly the iodine value and cetane number.

Arc voltage behavior in GMAW-P under different drop transfer modes

Purpose: Experimental measurements have been made to investigate meaning of the change in voltage for the pulse gas metal arc welding (GMAW-P) process operating under different drop transfer modes. Design/methodology/approach: Welding experiments with different values of pulsing parameter and simultaneous recording of high speed camera pictures and welding signals (such as current and voltage) were used to identify different drop transfer modes in GMAW-P. The investigation is based on the synchronization of welding signals and high speed camera to study the behaviour of voltage signal under different drop transfer modes. Findings: The results reveal that the welding arc is significantly affected by the molten droplet detachment. In fact, results indicate that sudden increase and drop in voltage just before and after the drop detachment can be used to characterize the voltage behaviour of different drop transfer mode in GMAW-P. Research limitations/implications: The results show that voltage signal carry rich information about different drop transfer occurring in GMAW-P. Hence it’s possible to detect different drop transfer modes. Future work should concentrate on development of filters for detection of different drop transfer modes. Originality/value: Determination of drop transfer mode with GMAW-P is crucial for the appropriate selection of pulse welding parameters. As change in drop transfer mode results in poor weld quality in GMAW-P, so in order to estimate the working parameters and ensure stable GMAW-P understanding the voltage behaviour of different drop transfer modes in GMAW-P will be useful. However, in case of GMAW-P hardly any attempt is made to analyse the behaviour of voltage signal for different drop transfer modes. This paper analyses the voltage signal behaviour of different drop transfer modes for GMAW-P.

Review: "Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2003" edited by Frew, A.J., Hitz, M., & O’Connor, P.

"This volume represents the proceedings of the 10th ENTER conference, held in Helsinki, Finland during January 2003. The conference theme was ‘technology on the move’, and the 476pp. proceedings offer 50 papers by 108 authors. The editors advise all papers were subject to a double blind peer review. The research has been categorised into 18 broad headings, which reflects the diversity of topics addressed. This reviewer has adopted the approach of succinctly summarising each of the papers, in the order they appear, to assist readers of Tourism Management in judging the potential value of the content for their own work..." -- publisher website

The "free-factor" impact on value in health services

Purpose - This paper seeks to understand the impact of financial cost on customer value in health prevention services by comparing free government services with private fee-charging providers. This is important as there is a common belief that a free health service is of lower quality and thus lower value than a paid service. However there is no evidence to verify this notion. Design / Methodology / Approach - A large-scale online survey was administered nationwide to Australian women. The respondents were asked about the functional and emotional value derived from their service experiences. Findings - Structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed non significant relationships between fee/free services and functional and emotional value (FV/EV). The non-significant relationship with FV is contrary to the theory of price quality relationship in services. This could be attributed to consumer perceptions that the technical quality of health professionals is comparable across free and paid services. The non-significant relationship with EV could be explained by the indicators used to reflect EV. These indicators were reflective of breast screening behaviour, not breast screening services. Subsequently, it may be posited that the act of having a breast screen is sufficient for consumers to derive emotional value, regardless of the financial cost. Originality / Value - This research fills an important gap in the literature by investigating the impact of financial cost on a service that consumers use proactively(prevention), rather than reactively (treatment). Insights are provided into the impact of cost on customer value in preventive health services, which are valuable to social marketing academics, health practitioners, and governments

The evolutionary value of recombination is constrained by genome modularity

Genetic recombination is a fundamental evolutionary mechanism promoting biological adaptation. Using engineered recombinants of the small single-stranded DNA plant virus, Maize streak virus (MSV), we experimentally demonstrate that fragments of genetic material only function optimally if they reside within genomes similar to those in which they evolved. The degree of similarity necessary for optimal functionality is correlated with the complexity of intragenomic interaction networks within which genome fragments must function. There is a striking correlation between our experimental results and the types of MSV recombinants that are detectable in nature, indicating that obligatory maintenance of intragenome interaction networks strongly constrains the evolutionary value of recombination for this virus and probably for genomes in general.