COSTS AND EFFECTS OF ARKANSAS' LONG-TERM CARE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (MEDICAID, CHANELLING, COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT)

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the Arkansas Long-Term Care Demonstration Project upon Arkansas' Medicaid expenditures and upon the clients it serves. A Retrospective Medicaid expenditure study component used analyses of variance techniques to test for the Project's effects upon aggregated expenditures for 28 demonstration and control counties representing 25 percent of the State's population over four years, 1979-1982.^ A second approach to the study question utilized a 1982 prospective sample of 458 demonstration and control clients from the same 28 counties. The disability level or need for care of each patient was established a priori. The extent to which an individual's variation in Medicaid utilization and costs was explained by patient need, presence or absence of the channeling project's placement decision or some other patient characteristic was examined by multiple regression analysis. Long-term and acute care Medicaid, Medicare, third party, self-pay and the grand total of all Medicaid claims were analyzed for project effects and explanatory relationships.^ The main project effect was to increase personal care costs without reducing nursing home or acute care costs (Prospective Study). Expansion of clients appeared to occur in personal care (Prospective Study) and minimum care nursing home (Retrospective Study) for the project areas. Cost-shifting between Medicaid and Medicare in the project areas and two different patterns of utilization in the North and South projects tended to offset each other such that no differences in total costs between the project areas and demonstration areas occurred. The project was significant ((beta) = .22, p < .001) only for personal care costs. The explanatory power of this personal care regression model (R('2) = .36) was comparable to other reported health services utilization models. Other variables (Medicare buy-in, level of disability, Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI), net monthly income, North/South areas and age) explained more variation in the other twelve cost regression models. ^

A relationship between aerosol transport and compound-specific d13C land plant biomarker and pollen records

We examined near-surface, late Holocene deep-sea sediments at nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) along the Southwest African continental margin. Contents, distribution patterns and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) are indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types, which can be correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in the same sediments. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories and satellite Aerosol Index imagery afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen on land and their transport pathways to the ocean sites. This multidisciplinary approach on an almost continental scale provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in lipid and pollen composition paralleling the major phytogeographic zonations on the adjacent continent. Dust and smoke aerosols are mainly derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semi-deserts and savannah regions rich in C4 and CAM plants. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin), which get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands, may also receive some material from the Chad region. Very little aerosol from the African continent is transported to the most southerly sites in the Cape Basin. As can be expected from the present position of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of the n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. The results of the study suggest that this combination of pollen data and compound-specific isotope geochemical proxies can be effectively applied in the reconstruction of past continental phytogeographic developments.