Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.

Pathogenesis of pulmonary edema: learning from high-altitude pulmonary edema

Pulmonary edema is a problem of major clinical importance resulting from a persistent imbalance between forces that drive water into the airspace of the lung and the biological mechanisms for its removal. Here, we will review the fundamental mechanisms implicated in the regulation of alveolar fluid homeostasis. We will then describe the perturbations of pulmonary fluid homeostasis implicated in the pathogenesis of pulmonary edema in conditions associated with increased pulmonary capillary pressure, namely cardiogenic pulmonary edema and high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), with particular emphasis on the latter that has provided important new insight into underlying mechanisms of pulmonary edema. We will provide evidence that impaired pulmonary endothelial and epithelial nitric oxide synthesis and/or bioavailability may represent a central underlying defect predisposing to exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction, and, in turn, capillary stress failure and alveolar fluid flooding. We will then demonstrate that exaggerated pulmonary hypertension, while possibly a prerequisite, may not always be sufficient to cause HAPE, and how defective alveolar fluid clearance may represent a second important pathogenic mechanism. Finally, we will outline, how this new insight gained from studies in HAPE, may be translated into the management of pulmonary edema and hypoxemia related disease states in general.

When language of instruction and language of application differ: Cognitive costs of bilingual mathematics learning

Bilingual education programs implicitly assume that the acquired knowledge is represented in a language-independent way. This assumption, however, stands in strong contrast to research findings showing that information may be represented in a way closely tied to the specific language of instruction and learning. The present study aims to examine whether and to which extent cognitive costs appear during arithmetic learning when language of instruction and language of retrieving differ. Thirty-nine high school students participating in a bilingual education program underwent a four-day training on multiplication and subtraction problems in one language (German or French), followed by a test session in which they had to solve trained as well as untrained problems in both languages. We found that cognitive costs related to language switching appeared for both arithmetic operations. Implications of our findings are discussed with respect to bilingual education as well as to cognitive mechanisms underlying different arithmetic operations.

ΔNp63 REGULATES A COMPLEX NETWORK OF TARGET GENES IN LIMB AND EPIDERMAL DEVELOPMENT

The skin is composed of two major compartments, the dermis and epidermis. The epidermis forms a barrier to protect the body. The stratified epithelium has self-renewing capacity throughout life, and continuous turnover is mediated by stem cells in the basal layer. p63 is structurally and functionally related to p53. In spite of their structural similarities, p63 is critical for the development and maintenance of stratified epithelial tissues, unlike p53. p63 is highly expressed in the epidermis and previously has been shown to play a critical role in the development and maintenance of the epidermis. The study of p63 has been complicated due to the existence of multiple isoforms: those with a transactivation domain (TAp63) and those lacking this domain (ΔNp63). Mice lacking p63 cannot form skin, have craniofacial and skeletal defects and die within hours after birth. These defects are due to the ability of p63 to regulate multiple processes in skin development including epithelial stem cell proliferation, differentiation, and adherence programs. To determine the roles of these isoforms in skin development and maintenance, isoform specific p63 conditional knock out mice were generated by our lab. TAp63-/- mice age prematurely, develop blisters, and display wound-healing defects that result from hyperproliferation of dermal stem cells. That results in premature depletion of these cells, which are necessary for wound repair, that indicates TAp63 plays a role in dermal/epidermal maintenance. To study the role of ΔNp63, I generated a ΔNp63-/- mouse and analyzed the skin by performing immunofluorescence for markers of epithelial differentiation. The ΔNp63-/- mice developed a thin, disorganized epithelium but differentiation markers were expressed. Interestingly, the epidermis from ΔNp63-/- mice co-expressed K14 and K10 in the same cell suggesting defects in epidermal differentiation and stratification. This phenotype is reminiscent of the DGCR8fl/fl;K14Cre and Dicerfl/fl;K14Cre mice skin. Importantly, DGCR8-/- embryonic stem cells (ESCs) display a hyperproliferation defect by failure to silence pluripotency genes. Furthermore, I have observed that epidermal cells lacking ΔNp63 display a phenotype reminiscent of embryonic stem cells instead of keratinocytes. Thus, I hypothesize that genes involved in maintaining pluripotency, like Oct4, may be upregulated in the absence of ΔNp63. To test this, q-RT PCR was performed for Oct4 mRNA with wild type and ΔNp63-/- 18.5dpc embryo skin. I found that the level of Oct4 was dramatically increased in the absence of ΔNp63-/-. Based on these results, I hypothesized that ΔNp63 induces differentiation by silencing pluripotency regulators, Oct4, Sox2 and Nanog directly through the regulation of DGCR8. I found that DGCR8 restoration resulted in repression of Oct4, Sox2 and Nanog in ΔNp63-/- epidermal cells and rescue differentiation defects. Loss of ΔNp63 resulted in pluripotency that caused defect in proper differentiation and stem cell like phenotype. This led me to culture the ΔNp63-/- epidermal cells in neuronal cell culture media in order to address whether restoration of DGCR8 can transform epidermal cells to neuronal cells. I found that DGCR8 restoration resulted in a change in cell fate. I also found that miR470 and miR145 play a role in the induction of pluripotency by repressing Oct4, Sox2 and Nanog. This indicates that ΔNp63 induces terminal differentiation through the regulation of DGCR8.

Molecular mechanisms underlying a cellular analog of operant reward learning.

Operant conditioning is a ubiquitous but mechanistically poorly understood form of associative learning in which an animal learns the consequences of its behavior. Using a single-cell analog of operant conditioning in neuron B51 of Aplysia, we examined second-messenger pathways engaged by activity and reward and how they may provide a biochemical association underlying operant learning. Conditioning was blocked by Rp-cAMP, a peptide inhibitor of PKA, a PKC inhibitor, and by expressing a dominant-negative isoform of Ca2+-dependent PKC (apl-I). Thus, both PKA and PKC were necessary for operant conditioning. Injection of cAMP into B51 mimicked the effects of operant conditioning. Activation of PKC also mimicked conditioning but was dependent on both cAMP and PKA, suggesting that PKC acted at some point upstream of PKA activation. Our results demonstrate how these molecules can interact to mediate operant conditioning in an individual neuron important for the expression of the conditioned behavior.

Role of germ line p53 mutations in aneuploidy and immortalization of dermal fibroblasts from Li-Fraumeni cancer patients

Pedigree analysis of certain families with a high incidence of tumors suggests a genetic predisposition to cancer. Li and Fraumeni described a familial cancer syndrome that is characterized by multiple primary tumors, early age of onset, and marked variation in tumor type. Williams and Strong (1) demonstrated that at least 7% of childhood soft tissue sarcoma patients had family histories that is readily explained by a highly penetrant autosomal dominant gene. To characterize the mechanism for genetic predisposition to many tumor types in these families, we have studied genetic alterations in fibroblasts, a target tissue from patients with the Li-Fraumeni Syndrome (LFS).^ We have observed spontaneous changes in initially normal dermal fibroblasts from LFS patients as they are cultured in vitro. The cells acquire an altered morphology, chromosomal anomalies, and anchorage-independent growth. This aberrant behavior of fibroblasts from LFS patients had never been observed in fibroblasts from normal donors. In addition to these phenotypic alterations, patient fibroblasts spontaneously immortalize by 50 population doublings (pd) in culture; unlike controls that remain normal and senesce by 30-35 (2). At 50 pd, immortal fibroblasts from two patients were found to be susceptible to tumorigenic transformation by an activated T24 H-ras oncogene (3). Approximately 80% of the oncogene expressing transfectants were capable of forming tumors in nude mice within 2-3 weeks. p53 has been previously associated with immortalization of cells in culture and cooperation with ras in transfection assays. Therefore, patients' fibroblast and lymphocyte derived DNA was tested for point mutations in p53. It was shown that LFS patients inherited certain point mutations in one of the two p53 alleles (4). Further studies on the above LFS immortal fibroblasts have demonstrated loss of the remaining p53 allele concomitant with escape from senescence. While the loss of the second allele correlates with immortalization it is not sufficient to transformation by an activated H-ras or N-ras oncogene. These immortal fibroblasts are resistant to tumorigenic transformation by v-abl, v-src, c-neu or v-mos oncogene; implying that additional steps are required in the tumorigenic progression of LFS patients' fibroblasts.^ References. (1) Williams et al., J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 79:1213, 1987. (2) Bischoff et al., Cancer Res. 50:7979, 1990. (3) Bischoff et al., Oncogene 6:183, 1991. (4) Malkin et al., Science 250:1233, 1990. ^

Personalized Tuning of a Reinforcement Learning Control Algorithm for Glucose Regulation

Artificial pancreas is in the forefront of research towards the automatic insulin infusion for patients with type 1 diabetes. Due to the high inter- and intra-variability of the diabetic population, the need for personalized approaches has been raised. This study presents an adaptive, patient-specific control strategy for glucose regulation based on reinforcement learning and more specifically on the Actor-Critic (AC) learning approach. The control algorithm provides daily updates of the basal rate and insulin-to-carbohydrate (IC) ratio in order to optimize glucose regulation. A method for the automatic and personalized initialization of the control algorithm is designed based on the estimation of the transfer entropy (TE) between insulin and glucose signals. The algorithm has been evaluated in silico in adults, adolescents and children for 10 days. Three scenarios of initialization to i) zero values, ii) random values and iii) TE-based values have been comparatively assessed. The results have shown that when the TE-based initialization is used, the algorithm achieves faster learning with 98%, 90% and 73% in the A+B zones of the Control Variability Grid Analysis for adults, adolescents and children respectively after five days compared to 95%, 78%, 41% for random initialization and 93%, 88%, 41% for zero initial values. Furthermore, in the case of children, the daily Low Blood Glucose Index reduces much faster when the TE-based tuning is applied. The results imply that automatic and personalized tuning based on TE reduces the learning period and improves the overall performance of the AC algorithm.

Improvement of antibiotic prescription in outpatient care: a cluster-randomized intervention study using a sentinel surveillance network of physicians.

OBJECTIVES To assess the effectiveness of implementing guidelines, coupled with individual feedback, on antibiotic prescribing behaviour of primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS One hundred and forty general practices from a representative Swiss sentinel network of primary care physicians participated in this cluster-randomized prospective intervention study. The intervention consisted of providing guidelines on treatment of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and uncomplicated lower urinary tract infections (UTIs), coupled with sustained, regular feedback on individual antibiotic prescription behaviour during 2 years. The main aims were: (i) to increase the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics; (ii) to increase the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics; (iii) to decrease the percentage of quinolone prescriptions for all cases of exacerbated COPD (eCOPD) treated with antibiotics; and (iv) to decrease the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01358916). RESULTS While the percentage of antibiotics prescribed for sinusitis or other upper RTIs and the percentage of quinolones prescribed for eCOPD did not differ between the intervention group and the control group, there was a significant increase in the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics [57% versus 49%, OR = 1.42 (95% CI 1.08-1.89), P = 0.01] and in the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics [35% versus 19%, OR = 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-3.91), P = 0.01] in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS In our setting, implementing guidelines, coupled with sustained individual feedback, was not able to reduce the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics, but increased the use of recommended antibiotics for RTIs and UTIs, as defined by the guidelines.

Time-course of "off-line" prefrontal rTMS effects--a PET study.

Low-frequency "off-line" repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the course of several minutes has attained considerable attention as a research tool in cognitive neuroscience due to its ability to induce functional disruptions of brain areas. This disruptive rTMS effect is highly valuable for revealing a causal relationship between brain and behavior. However, its influence on remote interconnected areas and, more importantly, the duration of the induced neurophysiological effects, remain unknown. These aspects are critical for a study design in the context of cognitive neuroscience. In order to investigate these issues, 12 healthy male subjects underwent 8 H(2)(15)O positron emission tomography (PET) scans after application of long-train low-frequency rTMS to the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Immediately after the stimulation train, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) increases were present under the stimulation site as well as in other prefrontal cortical areas, including the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) ipsilateral to the stimulation site. The mean increases in rCBF returned to baseline within 9 min. The duration of this unilateral prefrontal rTMS effect on rCBF is of particular interest to those who aim to influence behavior in cognitive paradigms that use an "off-line" approach.

Monitoring and Switching of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Collaborative Analysis of Adult Treatment Cohorts.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2013. METHODS Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. FINDINGS Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114-133 cells/µl). INTERPRETATION Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Trajectory mapping of middle atmospheric water vapor by a mini network of NDACC instruments

The important task to observe the global coverage of middle atmospheric trace gases like water vapor or ozone usually is accomplished by satellites. Climate and atmospheric studies rely upon the knowledge of trace gas distributions throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. Many of these gases are currently measured from satellites, but it is not clear whether this capability will be maintained in the future. This could lead to a significant knowledge gap of the state of the atmosphere. We explore the possibilities of mapping middle atmospheric water vapor in the Northern Hemisphere by using Lagrangian trajectory calculations and water vapor profile data from a small network of five ground-based microwave radiometers. Four of them are operated within the frame of NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change). Keeping in mind that the instruments are based on different hardware and calibration setups, a height-dependent bias of the retrieved water vapor profiles has to be expected among the microwave radiometers. In order to correct and harmonize the different data sets, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite is used to serve as a kind of traveling standard. A domain-averaging TM (trajectory mapping) method is applied which simplifies the subsequent validation of the quality of the trajectory-mapped water vapor distribution towards direct satellite observations. Trajectories are calculated forwards and backwards in time for up to 10 days using 6 hourly meteorological wind analysis fields. Overall, a total of four case studies of trajectory mapping in different meteorological regimes are discussed. One of the case studies takes place during a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) accompanied by the polar vortex breakdown; a second takes place after the reformation of stable circulation system. TM cases close to the fall equinox and June solstice event from the year 2012 complete the study, showing the high potential of a network of ground-based remote sensing instruments to synthesize hemispheric maps of water vapor.