Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone���s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios��� monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios��� historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone���s banking sectors��� stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios��� historical mean when forecasting returns.

Comprehensive income: evidence from Portuguese listed companies on reporting choices and value relevance

This work project aims at analysing choices related to Comprehensive income (CI) of Portuguese listed firms and understanding the reasons behind them. Additionally, it studies the relevance of CI versus Net Income (NI). It was found that firm���s size and volume of Other comprehensive income (OCI) are positively related with the choice for separate statements while smaller firms with positive NI and negative OCI tend to disclose less information about taxes. The value relevance of CI proved to be superior to that of NI but OCI seems to have no incremental value relevance.

The influence of low-frequency noise pollution on the quality of life and place in sustainable cities: a case study from northern Portugal

Discussing urban planning requires rethinking sustainability in cities and building healthy environments. Historically, some aspects of advancing the urban way of life have not been considered important in city planning. This is particularly the case where technological advances have led to conflicting land use, as with the installation of power poles and building electrical substations near residential areas. This research aims to discuss and rethink sustainability in cities, focusing on the environmental impact of low-frequency noise and electromagnetic radiation on human health. It presents data from a case study in an urban space in northern Portugal, and focuses on four guiding questions: Can power poles and power lines cause noise? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort due to noise? Can power poles and power lines affect human health? To answer these questions, we undertook research between 2014 and 2015 that was comprised of two approaches. The first approach consisted of evaluating the noise of nine points divided into two groups �� near the source�� (e.g., up to 50 m from power poles) and �� away from the source�� (e.g., more than 250 m away from the source). In the second approach, noise levels were measured for 72 h in houses located up to 20 m from the source. The groups consist of residents living within the distance range specified for each group. The measurement values were compared with the proposed criteria for assessing low-frequency noise using the DEFRA Guidance (University of Salford). In the first approach, the noise caused discomfort, regardless of the group. In the second approach, the noise had fluctuating characteristics, which led us to conclude that the noise caused discomfort.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ���best��� and ���worse��� case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ���best��� case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ���worse��� case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author���s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

The Role of Institutions in Cross-Section Income and Panel Data Growth Models: A Deeper Investigation on the Weakness and Proliferation of Instruments

This paper investigates the role of institutions in determining per capita income levels and growth. It contributes to the empirical literature by using different variables as proxies for institutions and by developing a deeper analysis of the issues arising from the use of weak and too many instruments in per capita income and growth regressions. The cross-section estimation suggests that institutions seem to matter, regardless if they are the only explanatory variable or are combined with geographical and integration variables, although most models suffer from the issue of weak instruments. The results from the growth models provides some interesting results: there is mixed evidence on the role of institutions and such evidence is more likely to be associated with law and order and investment profile; government spending is an important policy variable; collapsing the number of instruments results in fewer significant coefficients for institutions.

Textural classification of land cover using support vector machines: an empirical comparison with parametric, non parametric and hybrid classifiers in the Bolivian Amazon

Land cover classification is a key research field in remote sensing and land change science as thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data have become the basis for analyzing many socio-ecological issues. However, land cover classification remains a difficult task and it is especially challenging in heterogeneous tropical landscapes where nonetheless such maps are of great importance. The present study aims to establish an efficient classification approach to accurately map all broad land cover classes in a large, heterogeneous tropical area of Bolivia, as a basis for further studies (e.g., land cover-land use change). Specifically, we compare the performance of parametric (maximum likelihood), non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour and four different support vector machines - SVM), and hybrid classifiers, using both hard and soft (fuzzy) accuracy assessments. In addition, we test whether the inclusion of a textural index (homogeneity) in the classifications improves their performance. We classified Landsat imagery for two dates corresponding to dry and wet seasons and found that non-parametric, and particularly SVM classifiers, outperformed both parametric and hybrid classifiers. We also found that the use of the homogeneity index along with reflectance bands significantly increased the overall accuracy of all the classifications, but particularly of SVM algorithms. We observed that improvements in producer���s and user���s accuracies through the inclusion of the homogeneity index were different depending on land cover classes. Earlygrowth/degraded forests, pastures, grasslands and savanna were the classes most improved, especially with the SVM radial basis function and SVM sigmoid classifiers, though with both classifiers all land cover classes were mapped with producer���s and user���s accuracies of around 90%. Our approach seems very well suited to accurately map land cover in tropical regions, thus having the potential to contribute to conservation initiatives, climate change mitigation schemes such as REDD+, and rural development policies.

Earth's Changing Land

Entre el 14 i el 18 de mar�� de 1998 es va celebrar a Barcelona la confer��ncia Earth���s Changing Land sota la tutela dels programes internacionals Global Change in Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) i Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). L���objectiu principal de la trobada era presentar les darreres aportacions cient��fiques sobre els efectes presents i previsibles del canvi global sobre els ecosistemes terrestres i la societat. Al mateix temps, es volia afavorir l���establiment de ponts de di��leg entre els professionals implicats en el canvi global

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el proc��s d���especialitzaci�� vit��cola assolit als municipis de la prov��ncia de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir hist��ricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d���un proc��s que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del proc��s d���industrialitzaci�� a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls ���Boserupi����� de la poblaci�� en un context d���intensificaci�� de l�����s de la terra, i d���un impuls del mercat ���Smithi����� en un context d���expansi�� de la demanda per part de les economies atl��ntiques. Tamb�� es posa de manifest la import��ncia de les dotacions agro-ecol��giques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d���ingr��s. La difusi�� de la vinya don�� com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augment�� de nou a partir d'aleshores.

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el proc��s d���especialitzaci�� vit��cola assolit als municipis de la prov��ncia de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir hist��ricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d���un proc��s que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del proc��s d���industrialitzaci�� a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls ���Boserupi����� de la poblaci�� en un context d���intensificaci�� de l�����s de la terra, i d���un impuls del mercat ���Smithi����� en un context d���expansi�� de la demanda per part de les economies atl��ntiques. Tamb�� es posa de manifest la import��ncia de les dotacions agro-ecol��giques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d���ingr��s. La difusi�� de la vinya don�� com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augment�� de nou a partir d'aleshores.

On the impact of microcredit: Evidence from a randomized intervention in rural Ethiopia

We use data from a randomized controlled trial conducted in 2003-2006 in rural Amhara andOromiya (Ethiopia) to study the impacts of the introduction of microfinance in treated communities. We document that borrowing increased substantially in locations where the programs started their operations, but we find mixed evidence of improvements in a number ofsocio-economic outcomes, including income from agriculture, animal husbandry, non-farm self-employment, schooling and indicators of women's empowerment.

Corruption scandals, press reporting, and accountability. Evidence from Spanish mayors.

[spa] En este trabajo se analiza con datos de Espa��a los efectos de la corrupci��n local sobre los resultados electorales. En base a las noticias publicadas entre 1996 y 2009, se construye una nueva base de datos que recoge los casos de corrupci��n y noticias relativas a cambios en los planes urban��sticos que no han seguido el procedimiento legal. La base de datos muestra que los primeros esc��ndalos de corrupci��n urban��stica surgieron durante el mandato electoral de 1999-2003, pero que ��stos alcanzaron sus niveles m��ximos justo antes de las elecciones de 2007. Se estima una ecuaci��n del porcentaje de voto obtenido por el partido en el poder en estas elecciones locales y se encuentra que la p��rdida media de voto despu��s de un caso de corrupci��n se sit��a alrededor del 4%. Este efecto es m��s elevado (del 9%) si el caso de corrupci��n ha recibido una amplia cobertura por los diarios. Los efectos estimados para las elecciones de 2003 son significativamente inferiores. Cuando se consideran los casos en que los pol��ticos han tenido cargas judiciales por corrupci��n y amplia cobertura por los diarios, la p��rdida de voto asciende hasta el 12%. No obstante, la cobertura por los diarios genera un efecto negativo en el voto incluso cuando no hay cargas judiciales.

Corruption scandals, press reporting, and accountability. Evidence from Spanish mayors.

[spa] En este trabajo se analiza con datos de Espa��a los efectos de la corrupci��n local sobre los resultados electorales. En base a las noticias publicadas entre 1996 y 2009, se construye una nueva base de datos que recoge los casos de corrupci��n y noticias relativas a cambios en los planes urban��sticos que no han seguido el procedimiento legal. La base de datos muestra que los primeros esc��ndalos de corrupci��n urban��stica surgieron durante el mandato electoral de 1999-2003, pero que ��stos alcanzaron sus niveles m��ximos justo antes de las elecciones de 2007. Se estima una ecuaci��n del porcentaje de voto obtenido por el partido en el poder en estas elecciones locales y se encuentra que la p��rdida media de voto despu��s de un caso de corrupci��n se sit��a alrededor del 4%. Este efecto es m��s elevado (del 9%) si el caso de corrupci��n ha recibido una amplia cobertura por los diarios. Los efectos estimados para las elecciones de 2003 son significativamente inferiores. Cuando se consideran los casos en que los pol��ticos han tenido cargas judiciales por corrupci��n y amplia cobertura por los diarios, la p��rdida de voto asciende hasta el 12%. No obstante, la cobertura por los diarios genera un efecto negativo en el voto incluso cuando no hay cargas judiciales.

Soil quality assessment through a multi-approach analysis in soils of abandoned terraced land in NE Spain

The abandonment of agricultural land in mountainous areas has been an outstanding problem along the last century and has captured the attention of scientists, technicians and administrations, for the dramatic consequences sometimes occurred due to soil instability, steep slopes, rainfall regimes and wildfires. Hidromorfological and pedological alterations causing exceptional floods and accelerated erosion processes has therefore been studied, identifying the cause in the loss of landscape heterogeneity. Through the disappearance of agricultural works and drainage maintenance, slope stability has resulted severely affected. The mechanization of agriculture has caused the displacement of vines, olives and corks trees cultivation in terraced areas along the Mediterranean catchment towards more economically suitable areas. On the one hand, land use and management changes have implicated sociological changes as well, transforming areas inhabited by agricultural communities into deserted areas where the colonization of disorganized spontaneous vegetation has buried a valuable rural patrimony. On the other hand, lacking of planning and management of the abandoned areas has produced badlands and infertile soils due to wildfire and high erosion rates strongly degrading the whole ecosystems. In other cases, after land abandonment a process of soil regeneration has been recorded. Investigations have been conducted in a part of NE Spain where extended areas of terraced soils previously cultivated have been abandoned in the last century. The selected environments were semi-abandoned vineyards, semi-abandoned olive groves, abandoned stands of cork trees, abandoned stands of pine trees, scrubland of Cistaceaea, scrubland of Ericaceaea, and pasture. The research work was focused on the study of most relevant physical, chemical and biological soil properties, as well as runoff and erosion under soils with different plant cover to establish the abandonment effect on soil quality, due to the peculiarity and vulnerability of these soils with a much reduced depth. The period of observation was carried out from autumn 2009 to autumn 2010. The sediment concentration of soil erosion under vines was recorded as 34.52 g/l while under pasture it was 4.66 g/l. In addition, the soil under vines showed the least amount of organic matter, which was 12 times lower than all other soil environments. The carbon dioxide (CO2) and total glomalin (TG) ratio to soil organic carbon (SOC) in this soil was 0.11 and 0.31 respectively. However, the soil under pasture contained a higher amount of organic matter and showed that the CO2 and TG ratio to SOC was 0.02 and 0.11 respectively indicating that the soil under pasture better preserves the soil carbon pool. A similar trend was found in the intermediate soils in the sequence of land use change and abandonment. Soil structural stability increased in the two soil fractions investigated (0.25-2.00 mm, 2.0-5.6 mm) especially in those soils that did not undergo periodical perturbations like wildfires. Soil quality indexes were obtained by using relevant physical and chemical soil parameters. Factor analysis carried out to study the relationship between all soil parameters allowed to related variables and environments and identify those areas that better contribute to soil quality towards others that may need more attention to avoid further degradation processes

Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat ��� Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology

More discussion is required on how and which types of biomass should be used to achieve a significant reduction in the carbon load released into the atmosphere in the short term. The energy sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and thus its role in climate change mitigation is important. Replacing fossil fuels with biomass has been a simple way to reduce carbon emissions because the carbon bonded to biomass is considered as carbon neutral. With this in mind, this thesis has the following objectives: (1) to study the significance of the different GHG emission sources related to energy production from peat and biomass, (2) to explore opportunities to develop more climate friendly biomass energy options and (3) to discuss the importance of biogenic emissions of biomass systems. The discussion on biogenic carbon and other GHG emissions comprises four case studies of which two consider peat utilization, one forest biomass and one cultivated biomasses. Various different biomass types (peat, pine logs and forest residues, palm oil, rapeseed oil and jatropha oil) are used as examples to demonstrate the importance of biogenic carbon to life cycle GHG emissions. The biogenic carbon emissions of biomass are defined as the difference in the carbon stock between the utilization and the non-utilization scenarios of biomass. Forestry-drained peatlands were studied by using the high emission values of the peatland types in question to discuss the emission reduction potential of the peatlands. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP) values. Based on the results, the climate impact of the peat production can be reduced by selecting high-emission-level peatlands for peat production. The comparison of the two different types of forest biomass in integrated ethanol production in pulp mill shows that the type of forest biomass impacts the biogenic carbon emissions of biofuel production. The assessment of cultivated biomasses demonstrates that several selections made in the production chain significantly affect the GHG emissions of biofuels. The emissions caused by biofuel can exceed the emissions from fossil-based fuels in the short term if biomass is in part consumed in the process itself and does not end up in the final product. Including biogenic carbon and other land use carbon emissions into the carbon footprint calculations of biofuel reveals the importance of the time frame and of the efficiency of biomass carbon content utilization. As regards the climate impact of biomass energy use, the net impact on carbon stocks (in organic matter of soils and biomass), compared to the impact of the replaced energy source, is the key issue. Promoting renewable biomass regardless of biogenic GHG emissions can increase GHG emissions in the short term and also possibly in the long term.

Competing and Conflicting Land Uses at the Rural-Urban Interface: Understanding the Impacts of Residential Development on Agricultural Landscapes

Rural communities are currently undergoing rapid restructuring as globalization impacts the future viability of many small towns. Agricultural regions throughout Canada, in particular, Niagara-on-the-Lake, are forced to adapt to changes within the industry. In addition to these challenges, sprawling residential developments from nearby urban centres are changing the dynamic of this town, resulting in conflicts between the residential and agricultural land uses. This thesis explores these conflicts from the perspective of the residents and the farmers. It was found that the initial sources of conflict related to noise-generating farm activities are no longer a concern, while the use of pesticide have become a source of contention among the residents. The farmers, alternately, were found to be proactive and strived to limit the potential for conflict with adjacent residents. Lastly, it was determined that planning legislation aggravates land use conflicts within Niagara-on-the-Lake and need to better address these land use conflicts.