Wer gewinnt die Nationalratswahlen 2007 ? : Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von Wahlvorhersagen auf der Basis von kantonalen Parlamentswahlen

Au centre de cette contribution se pose la question de la mesure dans laquelle des résultats issus des élections cantonales peuvent servir d'instrument de pronostic pour les scores électoraux au niveau du Conseil national. L'analyse des résultats des élections tenues au cours des trente dernières années montre que les données cantonales (pondérées avec le nombre d'électeurs potentiels et la participation au vote) prédisent, dans environ neuf cas sur dix, la tendance réelle au niveau national. Si cela se vérifiait encore aux prochaines élections, alors les Verts peuvent s'attendre à des gains importants en termes de nouveaux électeurs et électrices. De même, mais dans une moindre mesure, l'UDC peux compter sur une augmentation de ses votants. Par contre, tant le PRD que le PS seront perdants et le PDC ne s'en sortira pas beaucoup mieux. En ce qui concerne la marge d'erreur de ces pronostics, elle se trouve au-dessous des 1 pourcents dans 73% des cas et pour 91% des cas elle ne dépasse pas les 2 pourcents.

Wavelet analysis residual kriging vs. neural network residual kriging

This paper deals with the problem of spatial data mapping. A new method based on wavelet interpolation and geostatistical prediction (kriging) is proposed. The method - wavelet analysis residual kriging (WARK) - is developed in order to assess the problems rising for highly variable data in presence of spatial trends. In these cases stationary prediction models have very limited application. Wavelet analysis is used to model large-scale structures and kriging of the remaining residuals focuses on small-scale peculiarities. WARK is able to model spatial pattern which features multiscale structure. In the present work WARK is applied to the rainfall data and the results of validation are compared with the ones obtained from neural network residual kriging (NNRK). NNRK is also a residual-based method, which uses artificial neural network to model large-scale non-linear trends. The comparison of the results demonstrates the high quality performance of WARK in predicting hot spots, reproducing global statistical characteristics of the distribution and spatial correlation structure.

Dual functions of DP1 promote biphasic Wnt-on and Wnt-off states during anteroposterior neural patterning.

DP1, a dimerization partner protein of the transcription factor E2F, is known to inhibit Wnt/β-catenin signalling along with E2F, although the function of DP1 itself was not well characterized. Here, we present a novel dual regulatory mechanism of Wnt/β-catenin signalling by DP1 independent from E2F. DP1 negatively regulates Wnt/β-catenin signalling by inhibiting Dvl-Axin interaction and by enhancing poly-ubiquitination of β-catenin. In contrast, DP1 positively modulates the signalling upon Wnt stimulation, via increasing cytosolic β-catenin and antagonizing the kinase activity of NLK. In Xenopus embryos, DP1 exerts both positive and negative roles in Wnt/β-catenin signalling during anteroposterior neural patterning. From subcellular localization analyses, we suggest that the dual roles of DP1 in Wnt/β-catenin signalling are endowed by differential nucleocytoplasmic localizations. We propose that these dual functions of DP1 can promote and stabilize biphasic Wnt-on and Wnt-off states in response to a gradual gradient of Wnt/β-catenin signalling to determine differential cell fates.

Multisensory facilitation of behavior in monkeys: effects of stimulus intensity.

Multisensory stimuli can improve performance, facilitating RTs on sensorimotor tasks. This benefit is referred to as the redundant signals effect (RSE) and can exceed predictions on the basis of probability summation, indicative of integrative processes. Although an RSE exceeding probability summation has been repeatedly observed in humans and nonprimate animals, there are scant and inconsistent data from nonhuman primates performing similar protocols. Rather, existing paradigms have instead focused on saccadic eye movements. Moreover, the extant results in monkeys leave unresolved how stimulus synchronicity and intensity impact performance. Two trained monkeys performed a simple detection task involving arm movements to auditory, visual, or synchronous auditory-visual multisensory pairs. RSEs in excess of predictions on the basis of probability summation were observed and thus forcibly follow from neural response interactions. Parametric variation of auditory stimulus intensity revealed that in both animals, RT facilitation was limited to situations where the auditory stimulus intensity was below or up to 20 dB above perceptual threshold, despite the visual stimulus always being suprathreshold. No RT facilitation or even behavioral costs were obtained with auditory intensities 30-40 dB above threshold. The present study demonstrates the feasibility and the suitability of behaving monkeys for investigating links between psychophysical and neurophysiologic instantiations of multisensory interactions.

Neuronal autophagy as a mediator of life and death: contrasting roles in chronic neurodegenerative and acute neural disorders.

Autophagy is a cellular mechanism for degrading proteins and organelles. It was first described as a physiological process essential for cellular health and survival, and this is its role in most cells. However, it can also be a mediator of cell death, either by the triggering of apoptosis or by an independent "autophagic" cell death mechanism. This duality is important in the central nervous system, where the activation of autophagy has recently been shown to be protective in certain chronic neurodegenerative diseases but deleterious in acute neural disorders such as stroke and hypoxic/ischemic injury. The authors here discuss these distinct roles of autophagy in the nervous system with a focus on the role of autophagy in mediating neuronal death. The development of new therapeutic strategies based on the manipulation of autophagy will need to take into account these opposing roles of autophagy.

Time Series Input Selection using Multiple Kernel Learning

In this paper we study the relevance of multiple kernel learning (MKL) for the automatic selection of time series inputs. Recently, MKL has gained great attention in the machine learning community due to its flexibility in modelling complex patterns and performing feature selection. In general, MKL constructs the kernel as a weighted linear combination of basis kernels, exploiting different sources of information. An efficient algorithm wrapping a Support Vector Regression model for optimizing the MKL weights, named SimpleMKL, is used for the analysis. In this sense, MKL performs feature selection by discarding inputs/kernels with low or null weights. The approach proposed is tested with simulated linear and nonlinear time series (AutoRegressive, Henon and Lorenz series).

Molecular basis for changes in behavioral state in ant social behaviors.

A hallmark of behavior is that animals respond to environmental change by switching from one behavioral state to another. However, information on the molecular underpinnings of these behavioral shifts and how they are mediated by the environment is lacking. The ant Pheidole pallidula with its morphologically and behaviorally distinct major and minor workers is an ideal system to investigate behavioral shifts. The physically larger majors are predisposed to defend the ant nest, whereas the smaller minors are the foragers. Despite this predisposition, majors are able to shift to foraging according to the needs of the colony. We show that the ant foraging (ppfor) gene, which encodes a cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG), mediates this shift. Majors have higher brain PKG activities than minors, and the spatial distribution of the PPFOR protein differs in these workers. Specifically, majors express the PPFOR protein in 5 cells in the anterior face of the ant brain, whereas minors do not. Environmental manipulations show that PKG is lower in the presence of a foraging stimulus and higher when defense is required. Finally, pharmacological activation of PKG increases defense and reduces foraging behavior. Thus, PKG signaling plays a critical role in P. pallidula behavioral shifts.

The customer valuations game as a basis for revenue management

I describe the customer valuations game, a simple intuitive game that can serve as a foundation for teaching revenue management. The game requires little or no preparation, props or software, takes around two hours (and hence can be finished in one session), and illustrates the formation of classical (airline and hotel) revenue management mechanisms such as advanced purchase discounts, booking limits and fixed multiple prices. I normally use the game as a base to introduce RM and to develop RM forecasting and optimization concepts off it. The game is particularly suited for non-technical audiences.

Mapping of Environmental Data Using Kernel-Based Methods

Recently, kernel-based Machine Learning methods have gained great popularity in many data analysis and data mining fields: pattern recognition, biocomputing, speech and vision, engineering, remote sensing etc. The paper describes the use of kernel methods to approach the processing of large datasets from environmental monitoring networks. Several typical problems of the environmental sciences and their solutions provided by kernel-based methods are considered: classification of categorical data (soil type classification), mapping of environmental and pollution continuous information (pollution of soil by radionuclides), mapping with auxiliary information (climatic data from Aral Sea region). The promising developments, such as automatic emergency hot spot detection and monitoring network optimization are discussed as well.

Combined approach for the management of large vestibular schwannomas: Planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery in a series of 20 consecutive cases.

INTRODUCTION: The management of large lesions of the skull base, such as vestibular schwannomas (VS) is challenging. Microsurgery remains the main treatment option. Combined approaches (planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery (GKS) for residual tumor long-term control) are being increasingly considered to reduce the risk of neurological deficits following complete resection. The current study aims to prospectively evaluate the safety-efficacy of combined approach in patients with large VS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We present our experience with planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery (GKS) in a consecutive a series of 20 patients with large vestibular schwannomas, treated between 2009 and 2014 in Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Clinical and radiological data and audiograms were prospectively collected for all patients, before and after surgery, before and after GKS, at regular intervals, in dedicated case-report forms. Additionally, for GKS, dose-planning parameters were registered. RESULTS: Twenty patients (6 males and 14 females) with large VS had been treated by this approach. The mean age at the time of surgery was 51.6years (range 34.4-73.4). The mean presurgical diameter was 36.7 (range 26.1-45). The mean presurgical tumor volume was 15.9cm(3) (range 534.9). Three patients (15%) needed a second surgical intervention because of high volume of the tumor remnant considered too large for a safe GKS. The mean follow-up after surgery was 27.2months (range 6-61.3). The timing of GKS was decided on the basis of the residual tumor shape and size following surgery. The mean duration between surgery and GKS was 7.6months (range 413.9, median 6months). The mean tumor volume at the time of GKS was 4.1cm(3) (range 0.5-12.8). The mean prescription isodose volume was 6.3cm(3) (range 0.8-15.5). The mean number of isocenters was 20.4 (range 11-31) and the mean marginal prescription dose was 11.7Gy (range 11-12). We did not have any major complications in our series. Postoperative status showed normal facial nerve function (House-Brackmann grade I) in all patients. Six patients with useful pre-operative hearing (GR class 1) underwent surgery with the aim to preserve cochlear nerve function; of these patients, 5 (83.3%) of them remained in GR class 1 and one (16.7%) lost hearing (GR class 5). Two patients having GR class 3 at baseline remained in the same GR class, but the tonal audiometry improved in one of them during follow-up. Eleven patients (57.8%) were in GR class 5 preoperatively; one patient improved hearing after surgery, passing to GR class 3 postoperatively. Following GKS, there were no new neurological deficits, with facial and hearing function remaining identical to that after surgery. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that planned subtotal resection followed by GKS has an excellent clinical outcome with respect to retaining facial and cochlear nerve function. This represents a paradigm shift of the treatment goals from a complete tumor excision perspective to that of a surgery designed to preserve neural functions. As long-term results emerge, this approach of a combined treatment (microsurgery and GKS) will most probably become the standard of care in the management of large vestibular schwanomma.

Neural control of vascular reactions: impact of emotion and attention.

This study investigated the neural regions involved in blood pressure reactions to negative stimuli and their possible modulation by attention. Twenty-four healthy human subjects (11 females; age = 24.75 ± 2.49 years) participated in an affective perceptual load task that manipulated attention to negative/neutral distractor pictures. fMRI data were collected simultaneously with continuous recording of peripheral arterial blood pressure. A parametric modulation analysis examined the impact of attention and emotion on the relation between neural activation and blood pressure reactivity during the task. When attention was available for processing the distractor pictures, negative pictures resulted in behavioral interference, neural activation in brain regions previously related to emotion, a transient decrease of blood pressure, and a positive correlation between blood pressure response and activation in a network including prefrontal and parietal regions, the amygdala, caudate, and mid-brain. These effects were modulated by attention; behavioral and neural responses to highly negative distractor pictures (compared with neutral pictures) were smaller or diminished, as was the negative blood pressure response when the central task involved high perceptual load. Furthermore, comparing high and low load revealed enhanced activation in frontoparietal regions implicated in attention control. Our results fit theories emphasizing the role of attention in the control of behavioral and neural reactions to irrelevant emotional distracting information. Our findings furthermore extend the function of attention to the control of autonomous reactions associated with negative emotions by showing altered blood pressure reactions to emotional stimuli, the latter being of potential clinical relevance.