Prediction of mortality using dobutamine echocardiography

OBJECTIVES We sought to find out whether dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) could provide independent prediction of total and cardiac mortality, incremental to clinical and angiographic variables. BACKGROUND Existing outcome studies with DbE have examined composite end points, rather than death, over a relatively short follow-up. METHODS Clinical and stress data were collected in 3,156 patients (age 63 +/- 12 years, 1,801 men) undergoing DbE. Significant stenoses (>50% diameter) were identified in 70% of 1,073 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Total and cardiac mortality were identified over nine years of follow-up (mean 3.8 +/- 1.9). Cox models were used to analyze the effect of ischemia and other variables, independent of other determinants of mortality. RESULTS The dobutamine echocardiogram was abnormal in 1,575 patients (50%). Death occurred in 716 patients (23%), 259 of whom (8%) were thought to have died from cardiac causes. Patients with normal DbE had a total mortality of 8% per year and a cardiac mortality of 1% per year over the first four years of follow-up. Ischemia and the extent of abnormal wall motion were independent predictors of cardiac death, together with age and heart failure. In sequential Cox models, the predictive power of clinical data alone (model chi-square 115) was strengthened by adding the resting left ventricular function (model chi-square 138) and the results of DbE (model chi-square 181). In the subgroup undergoing coronary angiography, the power of the model was increased to a minor degree by the addition of coronary anatomy data. CONCLUSIONS Dobutamine echocardiography is an independent predictor of death, incremental to other data. While a normal dobutamine echocardiogram predicts low risk of cardiac death ton the order of 1% per year), this risk increases with the extent of abnormal wall motion at rest and stress, (J Am Coil Cardiol 2001;37:754-60) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

An automated multi-unit composting facility for biodegradability evaluations

A system has been developed for studying the biodegradation of natural and synthetic polymeric material. The system is based on standard methods developed by the European Committee for Standardisation (CEN TC 261) (ISO/DIS 14855) and the American Society of Testing Materials, 'ASTM. Standard Test Method for Determining Aerobic. Biodegradation of Plastic Materials under Controlled Composting Conditions' (ASTM D 5338-92). A new low-cost compost facility has been used which satisfies the requirements of these standards. The system has been automated for data collection and has been run under the conditions specified by the standards. In the system, cellulose, newspaper and two starch-based polymers were treated with compost in a series of 3dm(3) vessels at 52 degreesC and under conditions of optimum moisture and pH. The degradation was followed over time by measuring the amount of carbon released as carbon dioxide. (C) 2001 Society of Chemical Industry.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of outcomes in hypertensive patients with suspected coronary disease

Stress echocardiography has been shown to improve the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in the presence of hypertension, but its value in prognostic evaluation is unclear. We sought to determine whether stress echocardiography could be used to predict mortality in 2363 patients with hypertension, who were followed for up to 10 years (mean 4.0+/-1.8) for death and revascularization. Stress echocardiograms were normal in 1483 patients (63%), 16% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction alone, and 21% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 489 patients (21%) and to multiple territories in 365 patients (15%). Cardiac death was less frequent among the patients able to exercise than among those undergoing dobutamine echocardiography (4% versus 7%, P<0.001). The risk of death in patients with a negative stress echocardiogram was <1% per year. Ischemia identified by stress echocardiography was an independent predictor of mortality in those able to exercise (hazard ratio 2.21, 95% confidence intervals 1.10 to 4.43, P=0.0001) as well as those undergoing dobutamine echo (hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.53 to 3.75, P=0.0001); other predictors were age, heart failure, resting LV dysfunction, and the Duke treadmill score. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the results of stress echocardiography added prognostic power to models based on clinical and stress-testing variables. Thus, the results of stress echocardiography are an independent predictor of cardiac death in hypertensive patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease, incremental to clinical risks and exercise results.

A new joint coding and modulation scheme for channels with clipping

A major limitation in any high-performance digital communication system is the linearity region of the transmitting amplifier. Nonlinearities typically lead to signal clipping. Efficient communication in such conditions requires maintaining a low peak-to-average power ratio (PAR) in the transmitted signal while achieving a high throughput of data. Excessive PAR leads either to frequent clipping or to inadequate resolution in the analog-to-digital or digital-to-analog converters. Currently proposed signaling schemes for future generation wireless communications suffer from a high PAR. This paper presents a new signaling scheme for channels with clipping which achieves a PAR as low as 3. For a given linear range in the transmitter's digital-to-analog converter, this scheme achieves a lower bit-error rate than existing multicarrier schemes, owing to increased separation between constellation points. We present the theoretical basis for this new scheme, approximations for the expected bit-error rate, and simulation results. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

A system for the heterologous expression of complex redox proteins in Rhodobacter capsulatus: characterisation of recombinant sulphite : cytochrome c oxidoreductase from Starkeya novella

The phototrophic purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodobacter capsulatus expresses a wide variety of complex redox proteins in response to changing environmental conditions. Here we report the construction and evaluation of an expression system for recombinant proteins in that organism which makes use of the dor promoter from the same organism. A generic expression vector, pDorEX, was constructed and used to express sulphite:cytochrome c oxidoreductase from Starkeya novella, a heterodimeric protein containing both molybdenum and haem c. The recombinant protein was secreted to the periplasm and its biochemical properties were very similar to those of the native enzyme. The pDorEX system therefore seems to be potentially useful for heterologous expression of multi-subunit proteins containing complex redox cofactors. (C) 2002 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of coal ash fusion temperatures with the F*A*C*T thermodynamic computer package

This paper outlines research on the processes taking place within the coal mineral matter at high temperatures and development of the relationship between ash fusion temperatures (AFT) and phase equilibria of the coal ash slags. A new thermodynamic database for the Al-Ca-Fe-O-Si system developed by the author was used in conjunction with the thermodynamic computer package F*A*C*T for these purposes. In addition, high temperature experimental studies were undertaken that involved heat treatment and quenching of the ash cones followed by the analyses using different techniques. The study provided new information on the processes taking place during AFT test and demonstrated the validity of the AFTs predictions with F*A*C*T. Examples of practical applications of the AFT prediction method are given in the paper. The results of this study are important not only for the AFT predictions, but also in general for the application of phase equilibrium science to the characterisation of the coal mineral matter interactions at high temperature. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of total body water from bioelectrical impedance analysis in patients with pancreatic cancer - agreement between three methods of prediction

Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a useful field measure to estimate total body water (TBW). No prediction formulae have been developed or validated against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between three prediction equations for the estimation of TBW in cachectic patients with pancreatic cancer. Methods Resistance was measured at frequencies of 50 and 200 kHz in 18 outpatients (10 males and eight females, age 70.2 +/- 11.8 years) with pancreatic cancer from two tertiary Australian hospitals. Three published prediction formulae were used to calculate TBW - TBWs developed in surgical patients, TBWca-uw and TBWca-nw developed in underweight and normal weight patients with end-stage cancer. Results There was no significant difference in the TBW estimated by the three prediction equations - TBWs 32.9 +/- 8.3 L, TBWca-nw 36.3 +/- 7.4 L, TBWca-uw 34.6 +/- 7.6 L. At a population level, there is agreement between prediction of TBW in patients with pancreatic cancer estimated from the three equations. The best combination of low bias and narrow limits of agreement was observed when TBW was estimated from the equation developed in the underweight cancer patients relative to the normal weight cancer patients. When no established BIA prediction equation exists, practitioners should utilize an equation developed in a population with similar critical characteristics such as diagnosis, weight loss, body mass index and/or age. Conclusions Further research is required to determine the accuracy of the BIA prediction technique against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of mortality in patients without angina: Use of an exercise score and exercise echocardiography

Background Exercise testing has limited efficacy for identifying coronary artery disease (CAD) in the absence of anginal. symptoms. Exercise echocardiography is more accurate than standard exercise testing, but its efficacy in this situation has not been defined. We sought to identify whether the Duke treadmill. score or exercise echocardiography (ExE) could be used to identify risk in patients without anginal symptoms. Methods We studied 1859 patients without typical or atypical angina, heart failure, or a history or ECG evidence of infarction or CAD, who were referred for ExE, of whom 1832 (age 51 15 years, 944 men) were followed for up to 10 years. The presence and extent of ischaemia and scar were interpreted by expert reviewers at the time of the original study. Results Exercise provoked significant (>0.1 mV) ST segment depression in 215 patients (12%), and wall motion abnormalities in 137 (8%). Seventy-eight patients (4%) died before revascularization, only 17 from known cardiac causes. The independent predictors of death were age (RR 1.1, p

Cerebral impedance and neurological outcome following a mild or severe hypoxic/ischemic episode in neonatal piglets

Multi-frequency bio-impedance has the potential to identify infants at risk of poor neurodevelopmental outcome following hypoxia by detecting cerebral edema. This study investigated the relationship between the severity of an hypoxic/ischemic episode, neurological outcome following the hypoxia and non-invasively measured cerebral bioelectrical impedance in piglets. One-day-old piglets were anaesthetised and ventilated. Hypoxia was induced by reducing the inspired oxygen concentration to 3-5%. Severe hypoxia was defined as hypoxia resulting in at least 30 min of low amplitude EEG (

Multi-scale modeling of the mechanical behavior of polymer-based materials

Polymers have become the reference material for high reliability and performance applications. In this work, a multi-scale approach is proposed to investigate the mechanical properties of polymeric based material under strain. To achieve a better understanding of phenomena occurring at the smaller scales, a coupling of a Finite Element Method (FEM) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) modeling in an iterative procedure was employed, enabling the prediction of the macroscopic constitutive response. As the mechanical response can be related to the local microstructure, which in turn depends on the nano-scale structure, the previous described multi-scale method computes the stress-strain relationship at every analysis point of the macro-structure by detailed modeling of the underlying micro- and meso-scale deformation phenomena. The proposed multi-scale approach can enable prediction of properties at the macroscale while taking into consideration phenomena that occur at the mesoscale, thus offering an increased potential accuracy compared to traditional methods.