The use of Poisson regression in the sociological study of suicide

This paper explains how Poisson regression can be used in studies in which the dependent variable describes the number of occurrences of some rare event such as suicide. After pointing out why ordinary linear regression is inappropriate for treating dependent variables of this sort, we go on to present the basic Poisson regression model and show how it fits in the broad class of generalized linear models. Then we turn to discussing a major problem of Poisson regression known as overdispersion and suggest possible solutions, including the correction of standard errors and negative binomial regression. The paper ends with a detailed empirical example, drawn from our own research on suicide.

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

Vocabulary learning through use of the picture-word inductive model for young English learners in China: A mixed methods examination using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world's largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users' needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). ^ This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. ^ I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. ^ As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers' resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.^

Provocative feature deletion: a syntactic model of agreement alternations in noun incorporation contexts

The relationship between noun incorporation (NI) and the agreement alternations that occur in such contexts (NI Transitivity Alternations) remains inadequately understood. Three interpretations of these alternations (Baker, Aranovich & Golluscio 2005; Mithun 1984; Rosen 1989) are shown to be undermined by foundational or mechanical issues. I propose a syntactic model, adopting Branigan's (2011) interpretation of NI as the result of “provocative” feature valuation, which triggers generation of a copy of the object that subsequently merges inside the verb. Provocation triggers a reflexive Refine operation that deletes duplicate features from chains, making them interpretable for Transfer. NI Transitivity Alternations result from variant deletion preferences exhibited during Refine. I argue that the NI contexts discussed (Generic NI, Partial NI and Double Object NI) result from different restrictions on phonetic and semantic identity in chain formation. This provides us with a consistent definition of NI Transitivity Alternations across contexts, as well as a new typology that distinguishes NI contexts, rather than incorporating languages.

The determinants of R&D investment: A survey of the empirical research

This paper offers an extensive survey and a critical discussion of the empirical literature on the driving factors of R&D. These factors are subsumed under five broad types. The paper first summarises the key predictions from theory regarding each type's R&D effect. It then examines for which factors differences in the theoretical predictions can also be found in empirical studies, and for which factors the empirical evidence is more unanimous. As the focus is on the empirical literature, methodological issues are also highlighted. The major factor types identified in the literature are, individual firm or industry characteristics, particularly internal finance and sales; competition in product markets; R&D tax credits and subsidies; location and resource related factors, such as spillovers from university research within close geographic proximity, membership of a research joint venture and cooperation with research centres, and the human capital embodied in knowledge workers; and spillovers from foreign R&D. Although on balance there is a consensus regarding the R&D effects of most factors, there is also variation in results. Recent work suggests that accounting for non-linearities is one area of research that may explain and encompass contradictory findings.

The development of novel chiral tethers for controlling intramolecular aryl-aryl coupling and their application in the synthesis of gomisin M1 and analogues

The primary focus of this thesis was the development of a novel chiral tether that could be used to control axial chirality around a newly formed aryl-aryl bond, and the extension of this methodology to the model synthesis of gomisin M1. In chapter 1, a review detailing the use of chiral tethers in the synthesis of atropisomers is discussed. The use of a variety of chiral molecules including 1,2-diols, 1,3-diols and other diol-based tethers, as well as amine-based and miscellaneous tethers are detailed. In chapter 2, the rationale behind the design of our novel molecular tethers, along with the subsequent synthesis of three chiral 1,3-diol-based tethers, is outlined. The method by which the enantiopurity of these diols was determined is also reviewed. This chapter also includes the attempted Mitsunobu and intramolecular couplings in the model synthesis of BINOL. Chapter 3 discusses the synthesis of suitable aryl halide substrates, and their employment in the attempted tether-controlled asymmetric model synthesis of gomisin M1. A comprehensive investigation into the attempted intramolecular biaryl coupling of these tethered substrates is also included. The non-stereoselective model synthesis of gomisin M1 is outlined in chapter 4. The installation of the desired biaryl linkage and the subsequent attempted intramolecular McMurry couplings are discussed. The impact of different protecting groups in the molecule on the intramolecular McMurry reaction is also outlined. Chapter 5 details the full experimental procedures, including spectroscopic and analytical data for the compounds prepared during this research.

Vocabulary Learning through Use of the Picture-Word Inductive Model for Young English Learners in China: A Mixed Methods Examination Using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world’s largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users’ needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers’ resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.

Accountability, Quality, and Student Success in Online Education: A Literature Review of Empirical Studies

This paper examines empirical studies on accountability, quality, and student success in online education. It advances that accountability and quality are critical components for student success in online education. It concludes that there is a lack of empirical studies that examine the effects of these measures on student success.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

Sandcastles of hope? Civil society organizations and the working conditions of migrant farmworkers in North America

This research explores whether civil society organizations (CSOs) can contribute to more effectively regulating the working conditions of temporary migrant farmworkers in North America. This dissertation unfolds in five parts. The first part of the dissertation sets out the background context. The context includes the political economy of agriculture and temporary migrant labour more broadly. It also includes the political economy of the legal regulations that govern immigration and work relations. The second part of the research builds an analytical model for studying the operation of CSOs active in working with the migrant farmworker population. The purpose of the analytical framework is to make sense of real-world examples by providing categories for analysis and a means to get at the channels of influence that CSOs utilize to achieve their aims. To this end, the model incorporates the insights from three significant bodies of literature—regulatory studies, labour studies, and economic sociology. The third part of the dissertation suggests some key strategic issues that CSOs should consider when intervening to assist migrant farmworkers, and also proposes a series of hypotheses about how CSOs can participate in the regulatory process. The fourth part probes and extends these hypotheses by empirically investigating the operation of three CSOs that are currently active in assisting migrant farm workers in North America: the Agricultural Workers Alliance (Canada), Global Workers’ Justice Alliance (USA), and the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (USA). The fifth and final part draws together lessons from the empirical work and concluded that CSOs can fill gaps left by the waning power of actors, such as trade unions and labour inspectorates, as well as act in ways that these traditional actors can not.

Investigating Multiple Roles of Vocal Confidence in Persuasion

Although persuasion often occurs via oral communication, it remains a comparatively understudied area. This research tested the hypothesis that changes in three properties of voice influence perceptions of speaker confidence, which in turn differentially affects attitudes according to different underlying psychological processes that the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM, Petty & Cacioppo, 1984), suggests should emerge under different levels of thought. Experiment 1 was a 2 (Elaboration: high vs. low) x 2 (Vocal speed: increased speed vs. decreased speed) x 2 (Vocal intonation: falling intonation vs. rising intonation) between participants factorial design. Vocal speed and vocal intonation influenced perceptions of speaker confidence as predicted. In line with the ELM, under high elaboration, confidence biased thought favorability, which in turn influenced attitudes. Under low elaboration, confidence did not bias thoughts but rather directly influenced attitudes as a peripheral cue. Experiment 2 used a similar design as Experiment 1 but focused on vocal pitch. Results confirmed pitch influenced perceptions of confidence as predicted. Importantly, we also replicated the bias and cue processes found in Experiment 1. Experiment 3 investigated the process by which a broader spectrum of speech rate influenced persuasion under moderate elaboration. In a 2 (Argument quality: strong vs. weak) x 4 (Vocal speed: extremely slow vs. moderately slow vs. moderately fast vs. extremely fast) between participants factorial design, results confirmed the hypothesized non-linear relationship between speech rate and perceptions of confidence. In line with the ELM, speech rate influenced persuasion based on the amount of processing. Experiment 4 investigated the effects of a broader spectrum of vocal intonation on persuasion under moderate elaboration and used a similar design as Experiment 3. Results indicated a partial success of our vocal intonation manipulation. No evidence was found to support the hypothesized mechanism. These studies show that changes in several different properties of voice can influence the extent to which others perceive them as confident. Importantly, evidence suggests different vocal properties influence persuasion by the same bias and cue processes under high and low thought. Evidence also suggests that under moderate thought, speech rate influences persuasion based on the amount of processing.

Production and presence in the countries of Central America in Scopus on the theme of Documentation in Social Communication (1986-2013)

Describes and analyzes the results obtained after analysis of the publications present in Scopus data base and used that tool rankings generated by the research group Scimago on the production of the different countries of Central America on the issue of documentation the means of mass communication. Performed a comparative about different countries in the region and the scientific analyzes. Finally, and given and data analysis, a number of recommendations are made to improve the production and the presence in indexed database.

Understandings of transnational families in debates on Migration and development

International migration sets in motion a range of significant transnational processes that connect countries and people. How migration interacts with development and how policies might promote and enhance such interactions have, since the turn of the millennium, gained attention on the international agenda. The recognition that transnational practices connect migrants and their families across sending and receiving societies forms part of this debate. The ways in which policy debate employs and understands transnational family ties nevertheless remain underexplored. This article sets out to discern the understandings of the family in two (often intermingled) debates concerned with transnational interactions: The largely state and policydriven discourse on the potential benefits of migration on economic development, and the largely academic transnational family literature focusing on issues of care and the micro-politics of gender and generation. Emphasizing the relation between diverse migration-development dynamics and specific family positions, we ask whether an analytical point of departure in respective transnational motherhood, fatherhood or childhood is linked to emphasizing certain outcomes. We conclude by sketching important strands of inclusions and exclusions of family matters in policy discourse and suggest ways to better integrate a transnational family perspective in global migration-development policy.

Looking for Determinants of Ontological Security in the Spain of the Crisis

The concept of ontological security has a remarkable echo in the current sociology to describe emotional status of men of late modernity. However, the concept created by Giddens in the eighties has been little used in empirical research covering various sources of risk or uncertainty. In this paper, a scale for ontological security is proposed. To do this, we start from the results of a research focused on the relationship between risk, uncertainty and vulnerability in the context of the economic crisis in Spain. These results were produced through nine focus groups and a telephone survey with standardized questionnaire applied to a national sample of 2,408 individuals over 18 years. This work is divided into three main sections. In the fi rst, a scale has been built from the results of the application of different items present in the questionnaire used. The second part explores the relationships of the scale obtained with the variables further approximate the emotional dimensions of individuals. The third part observes the variables that contribute to changes in the scale: These variables show the structural feature of the ontological security.