Enhancing the usability of numerical models with case-based reasoning

Numerical models are important tools used in engineering fields to predict the behaviour and the impact of physical elements. There may be advantages to be gained by combining Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) techniques with numerical models. This paper considers how CBR can be used as a flexible query engine to improve the usability of numerical models. Particularly they can help to solve inverse and mixed problems, and to solve constraint problems. We discuss this idea with reference to the illustrative example of a pneumatic conveyor problem. The paper describes example problems faced by design engineers in this context and the issues that need to be considered in this approach. Solution of these problems require methods to handle constraints in both the retrieval phase and the adaptation phase of a typical CBR cycle. We show approaches to the solution of these problesm via a CBR tool.

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll-abased models

We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed-layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite-derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low-productivity seasons as well as in sea ice-covered/deep-water regions. Depth-resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption-based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic-relevant parameters.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

B-type supergiants in the SMC: Chemical compositions and comparison of static and unified models

High-resolution UCLES/AAT spectra are presented for nine B-type supergiants in the SMC, chosen on the basis that they may show varying amounts of nuclear-synthetically processed material mixed to their surface. These spectra have been analysed using a new grid of approximately 12 000 non-LTE line blanketed tlusty model atmospheres to estimate atmospheric parameters and chemical composition. The abundance estimates for O, Mg and Si are in excellent agreement with those deduced from other studies, whilst the low estimate for C may reflect the use of the C II doublet at 4267 Å. The N estimates are approximately an order of magnitude greater than those found in unevolved B-type stars or H II regions but are consistent with the other estimates in AB-type supergiants. These results have been combined with results from a unified model atmosphere analysis of UVES/VLT spectra of B-type supergiants (Trundle et al. 2004, A&A, 417, 217) to discuss the evolutionary status of these objects. For two stars that are in common with those discussed by Trundle et al., we have undertaken a careful comparison in order to try to understand the relative importance of the different uncertainties present in such analyses, including observational errors and the use of static or unified models. We find that even for these relatively luminous supergiants, tlusty models yield atmospheric parameters and chemical compositions similar to those deduced from the unified code fastwind.

A comparison of a range of models for dispersion in a partially stratified room

A comparative study of models used to predict contaminant dispersion in a partially stratified room is presented. The experiments were carried out in a ventilated test room, with an initially evenly dispersed pollutant. Air was extracted from the outlet in the ceiling of the room at 1 and 3 air changes per hour. A small temperature difference between the top and bottom of the room causes very low air velocities, and higher concentrations, in the lower half of the room. Grid-independent CFD calculations were compared with predictions from a zonal model and from CFD using a very coarse grid. All the calculations show broadly similar contaminant concentration decay rates for the three locations monitored in the experiments, with the zonal model performing surprisingly well. For the lower air change rate, the models predict a less well mixed contaminant distribution than the experimental measurements suggest. With run times of less than a few minutes, the zonal model is around two orders of magnitude faster than coarse-grid CFD and could therefore be used more easily in parametric studies and sensitivity analyses. For a more detailed picture of internal dispersion, a CFD study using coarse and standard grids may be more appropriate.

Agency or Dependency?: The Mixed Peppers Theatre Arts Training Project for young people with disabilities

This article provides a reflection on my past practice as Creative Director of The Mixed Peppers Theatre Arts Training Programme. Drawing upon discourses of Disability Studies it considers how this ostensibly emancipatory project that sought to provide access to theatre activity for young people with physical disabilities living in Northern Ireland was flawed, and was eventually disbanded, partly due to a failure on the part of its non-disabled leadership to address imbalances of power in its relationship with its young disabled constituency. The article is framed within a survey of recent debates that focus upon the historical lack of a sustained, indigenous, disability-led theatre activity in Northern Ireland and the recent efforts by non-disabled professional arts practitioners to establish such activity in the region. It offers, as an exemplar to current discussion, an analysis of how the choice and agency of the young members of The Mixed Peppers were compromised by the well-meaning but potentially oppressive practices of its leadership. It questions whether the project was unduly influenced by parental desire to see their disabled children `normalized' in a high-profile theatrical production. Finally, it considers how The Mixed Peppers' institutional situation, as a project controlled and administered by a disability charity, was implicated in the premature demise of the initiative.

MIXED-MODEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM DESIGN FOR AIRCRAFT ASSEMBLY

With the advancement of flexible fixture and flexible tooling, mixed production has become possible for aircraft assembly as the manufacturing processes of different aircraft/sub-assembly models are similar. However, it is a great challenge to model the problem and provide a practical solution due to the low volume and complex constraints of aircraft assemblies. To tackle this problem, this work proposes a methodology for designing the mixed production system, and a new scheduling approach is proposed by combined backward and forward scheduling methods. These methods are validated through a real-life industrial case study. Simulation results show that the number of workstations and the cycle time for making a fuselage can be reduced by 50% and 39% respectively with the newly designed mixed-model system.

Behavioural context of multi-scale species distribution models assessed by radio-tracking

Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

Filling the gap: A 60 ky record of mixed carbonate-siliciclastic turbidite deposition from the Great Barrier Reef

Late Pleistocene to Holocene margin sedimentation on the Great Barrier Reef, a mixed carbonatesiliciclastic margin, has been explained by a transgressive shedding model. This model has challenged widely accepted sequence stratigraphic models in terms of the timing and type of sediment (i.e. carbonate vs. siliciclastic) deposited during sea-level oscillations. However, this model documents only hemipelagic sedimentation and the contribution of coarse-grained turbidite deposition, and the role of submarine canyons in this process, remain elusive on this archetypal margin. Here we present a new model of turbidite deposition for the last 60 ky in the north-eastern Australia margin. Using highresolution bathymetry, 58 new and existing radiometric ages, and the composition of 81 turbidites from 15 piston cores, we found that the spatial and temporal variation of turbidites is controlled by the relationship between sea-level change and the variable physiography along the margin. Siliciclastic and mixed carbonate-siliciclastic turbidites were linked to canyons indenting the shelf-break and the welldeveloped shelf-edge reef barriers that stored sediment behind them. Turbidite deposition was sustained while the sea-level position allowed the connection and sediment bypassing through the interreef passages and canyons. Carbonate turbidites dominated in regions with more open conditions at the outer-shelf and where slope-confined canyons dominated or where canyons are generally less abundant. The turn-on and maintenance of carbonate production during sea-level fluctuations also influenced the timing of carbonate turbidite deposition. We show that a fundamental understanding of the variable physiography inherent to mixed carbonate-siliciclastic margins is essential to accurately interpret deep-water, coarse-grained deposition within a sequence stratigraphic context. 

Multilinear and Integer Programming for Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extensively used to encode sequences of decisions with probabilistic effects. Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities (MDPIPs) encode sequences of decisions whose effects are modeled using sets of probability distributions. In this paper we examine the computation of Γ-maximin policies for MDPIPs using multilinear and integer programming. We discuss the application of our algorithms to “factored” models and to a recent proposal, Markov Decision Processes with Set-valued Transitions (MDPSTs), that unifies the fields of probabilistic and “nondeterministic” planning in artificial intelligence research. 

Nonlinear behavioral modeling of mixed signal RF-digital I/O devices

Esta tese investiga a caracterização (e modelação) de dispositivos que realizam o interface entre os domínios digital e analógico, tal como os buffers de saída dos circuitos integrados (CI). Os terminais sem fios da atualidade estão a ser desenvolvidos tendo em vista o conceito de rádio-definido-por-software introduzido por Mitola. Idealmente esta arquitetura tira partido de poderosos processadores e estende a operação dos blocos digitais o mais próximo possível da antena. Neste sentido, não é de estranhar que haja uma crescente preocupação, no seio da comunidade científica, relativamente à caracterização dos blocos que fazem o interface entre os domínios analógico e digital, sendo os conversores digital-analógico e analógico-digital dois bons exemplos destes circuitos. Dentro dos circuitos digitais de alta velocidade, tais como as memórias Flash, um papel semelhante é desempenhado pelos buffers de saída. Estes realizam o interface entre o domínio digital (núcleo lógico) e o domínio analógico (encapsulamento dos CI e parasitas associados às linhas de transmissão), determinando a integridade do sinal transmitido. Por forma a acelerar a análise de integridade do sinal, aquando do projeto de um CI, é fundamental ter modelos que são simultaneamente eficientes (em termos computacionais) e precisos. Tipicamente a extração/validação dos modelos para buffers de saída é feita usando dados obtidos da simulação de um modelo detalhado (ao nível do transístor) ou a partir de resultados experimentais. A última abordagem não envolve problemas de propriedade intelectual; contudo é raramente mencionada na literatura referente à caracterização de buffers de saída. Neste sentido, esta tese de Doutoramento foca-se no desenvolvimento de uma nova configuração de medição para a caracterização e modelação de buffers de saída de alta velocidade, com a natural extensão aos dispositivos amplificadores comutados RF-CMOS. Tendo por base um procedimento experimental bem definido, um modelo estado-da-arte é extraído e validado. A configuração de medição desenvolvida aborda não apenas a integridade dos sinais de saída mas também do barramento de alimentação. Por forma a determinar a sensibilidade das quantias estimadas (tensão e corrente) aos erros presentes nas diversas variáveis associadas ao procedimento experimental, uma análise de incerteza é também apresentada.

Behavioral modeling optimization and enhancement for high-speed analog mixed-signal I/O interfaces

A integridade do sinal em sistemas digitais interligados de alta velocidade, e avaliada através da simulação de modelos físicos (de nível de transístor) é custosa de ponto vista computacional (por exemplo, em tempo de execução de CPU e armazenamento de memória), e exige a disponibilização de detalhes físicos da estrutura interna do dispositivo. Esse cenário aumenta o interesse pela alternativa de modelação comportamental que descreve as características de operação do equipamento a partir da observação dos sinais eléctrico de entrada/saída (E/S). Os interfaces de E/S em chips de memória, que mais contribuem em carga computacional, desempenham funções complexas e incluem, por isso, um elevado número de pinos. Particularmente, os buffers de saída são obrigados a distorcer os sinais devido à sua dinâmica e não linearidade. Portanto, constituem o ponto crítico nos de circuitos integrados (CI) para a garantia da transmissão confiável em comunicações digitais de alta velocidade. Neste trabalho de doutoramento, os efeitos dinâmicos não-lineares anteriormente negligenciados do buffer de saída são estudados e modulados de forma eficiente para reduzir a complexidade da modelação do tipo caixa-negra paramétrica, melhorando assim o modelo standard IBIS. Isto é conseguido seguindo a abordagem semi-física que combina as características de formulação do modelo caixa-negra, a análise dos sinais eléctricos observados na E/S e propriedades na estrutura física do buffer em condições de operação práticas. Esta abordagem leva a um processo de construção do modelo comportamental fisicamente inspirado que supera os problemas das abordagens anteriores, optimizando os recursos utilizados em diferentes etapas de geração do modelo (ou seja, caracterização, formulação, extracção e implementação) para simular o comportamento dinâmico não-linear do buffer. Em consequência, contributo mais significativo desta tese é o desenvolvimento de um novo modelo comportamental analógico de duas portas adequado à simulação em overclocking que reveste de um particular interesse nas mais recentes usos de interfaces de E/S para memória de elevadas taxas de transmissão. A eficácia e a precisão dos modelos comportamentais desenvolvidos e implementados são qualitativa e quantitativamente avaliados comparando os resultados numéricos de extracção das suas funções e de simulação transitória com o correspondente modelo de referência do estado-da-arte, IBIS.

Phase transitions and nonlinear phenomena in neuronal network models

Communication and cooperation between billions of neurons underlie the power of the brain. How do complex functions of the brain arise from its cellular constituents? How do groups of neurons self-organize into patterns of activity? These are crucial questions in neuroscience. In order to answer them, it is necessary to have solid theoretical understanding of how single neurons communicate at the microscopic level, and how cooperative activity emerges. In this thesis we aim to understand how complex collective phenomena can arise in a simple model of neuronal networks. We use a model with balanced excitation and inhibition and complex network architecture, and we develop analytical and numerical methods for describing its neuronal dynamics. We study how interaction between neurons generates various collective phenomena, such as spontaneous appearance of network oscillations and seizures, and early warnings of these transitions in neuronal networks. Within our model, we show that phase transitions separate various dynamical regimes, and we investigate the corresponding bifurcations and critical phenomena. It permits us to suggest a qualitative explanation of the Berger effect, and to investigate phenomena such as avalanches, band-pass filter, and stochastic resonance. The role of modular structure in the detection of weak signals is also discussed. Moreover, we find nonlinear excitations that can describe paroxysmal spikes observed in electroencephalograms from epileptic brains. It allows us to propose a method to predict epileptic seizures. Memory and learning are key functions of the brain. There are evidences that these processes result from dynamical changes in the structure of the brain. At the microscopic level, synaptic connections are plastic and are modified according to the dynamics of neurons. Thus, we generalize our cortical model to take into account synaptic plasticity and we show that the repertoire of dynamical regimes becomes richer. In particular, we find mixed-mode oscillations and a chaotic regime in neuronal network dynamics.

Using a whole person approach to support people with cancer: a longitudinal, mixed methods service evaluation

Introduction: Improved models of care are needed to meet all the support needs of people with cancer, which encompass psychological, emotional, physical, spiritual, sexual, occupational, social and existential needs. The aim of this paper is to (1) evaluate short and long-term impacts of using a whole person approach to support people with cancer on the Living Well with the Impact of Cancer Course (LWC); (2) use these data to inform strategic decisions about future service provision at Penny Brohn UK. Methods: Longitudinal mixed-methods service evaluation (n=135). Data collected included health related quality of life (HRQoL) (FACIT-SpEx); Concerns (types and severity - MYCaW); lifestyle behaviour (bespoke questionnaire) and participants’ experiences over 12 months post course. Results: Statistically and clinically significant improvements from baseline - 12 months in severity of MYCaW Concerns (n=64; p<0.000) and mean total HRQoL (n=66; p<0.000). The majority of MYCaW concerns were ‘psychological and emotional’ and about participants’ wellbeing. Spiritual, emotional and functional wellbeing contributed most to HRQoL improvements at 12 months. Barriers to maintaining healthy lifestyle changes included lack of support from family and friends, time constraints, and returning to work. 3-6 months post-course was identified as the time when more support was most likely to be needed. Conclusions: Using a whole person approach for the LWC enabled the needs of participants to be met, and statistically and clinically significant improvements in HRQoL and MYCaW Concerns were reported. Qualitative data analysis explored how experiencing whole person support enabled participants to make and sustain healthy lifestyle changes associated with improved survivorship. Barriers experienced to making health behaviour change were also identified. These data then informed wider and more person-centred clinical provision to increase the maintenance of positive long-term behaviour changes. Comparison of whole person approaches to cancer treatment and support and standard care are now urgently needed.

Teacher educators: proposing new professional development models within an English further education context

At a time of increasing public and government focus on the quality of teacher education, little is known about the professional development needs of those who teach teachers in further education (FE). Yet they are crucial players. Efforts are intensifying across a significant number of countries to promote the professional development of teacher educators, but there is little support for new or experienced practitioners and no substantive professional standards regarding this role in English FE. This has an impact on the professional practice and career trajectories of teacher educators themselves. Based on a series of semi-structured interviews, an online survey and focus groups, this mixed-methods study uses a sequential exploratory design. The study captures the voices of English FE teacher educators who identified mentoring, induction and a choice of continuous professional development sessions as important strategies to improve the effectiveness of their role over time. This article will propose flexible models of professional development, following an analysis of new and experienced teacher educators’ needs in FE in England. The article recommends that new professional standards for teacher educators could be written collaboratively by practitioners, within a policy and institutional framework which supports the scholarship and research requirements of teacher educators.