Turkey and the Kurdish problem; new approaches in the face of the Middle East crises. Point of View No. 30, February 2013

From the Introduction. For almost a hundred years (since World War I and the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire) stability – or rather, the permanent threat to stability – has been a key challenge for the Middle East. One of the central elements of this threat has been the so-called Kurdish problem, that is, the issues that continually arise between the states of the region and the Kurdish minority living in the area, as well as the tensions among the individual states caused by a range of issues related to local Kurds. The country most affected by the Kurdish problem is Turkey.

The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State. OSW Point of View Number 52, August 2015

Since June 2014, Islamic State (IS) has been regarded as the principal security threat in the Middle East and one of the most important problems for European and global security. Islamic State, which for many years was just one of many terror organisations with links to al-Qaeda, has succeeded in achieving much more than other similar organisations: it has taken over control of large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq by military means, created its own para-state structures in that area, and become the greatest civilisational challenge for the region in a century as it established a self-proclaimed caliphate and credibly pledged to expand further on a global scale. Those successes have been accompanied by widely publicised acts of systemic brutality which meets the definition of crimes against humanity. One outcome of these developments is the emergence of an exotic informal alliance to combatthe Islamic State, which has brought together all the states from the Middle East and many from beyond the region. However, contrary to what could have been predicted, after almost a year of the declared war against IS, the Caliphate still holds most of the ground it gained in 2014.

(Table T2) Integrated intensity (peak area) of matrix minerals of ODP Hole 173-1068A

Mass-wasting deposits characterize the Upper Jurassic(?) to Lower Cretaceous sedimentary record of the Iberia Abyssal Plain. These deposits include olistostromes at Site 897, olistostromes and/or possible rock-fall deposits at Site 899, a breccia succession at Site 1068, slumped and fractured deposits at Site 1069, and a breccia succession at Site 1070. Whereas the exact origin of these deposits is uncertain, the regional common occurrence of middle to upper Mesozoic mass-wasting deposits suggests that they record the early rifting evolution of the west Iberia margin. This data report presents both qualitative and semiquantitative results from XRD analyses of the breccia matrix at Site 1068. In this study the matrix is defined as the fine-grained particles (as viewed through a binocular microscope) plus cement. Results are based on analytical methods that aimed to isolate the desired matrix from larger clast contamination prior to XRD analyses. In addition, the breccia was sampled at a higher resolution than was conducted aboard ship, producing a more complete description of downcore matrix mineralogical changes. The data presented here may be used to (1) further justify the subunit designation of Unit IV made aboard ship, (2) help determine to what degree the matrix and the larger clasts (studied in thin section aboard ship; Shipboard Scientific Party, 1998, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.173.106.1998) are compositionally distinct, (3) help identify the extent of hydrothermal fluid migration in the breccia, and (4) support the proposed shipboard hypothesis that the Site 1068 breccia succession resulted from multiple mass-wasting.

Mineral and chemical composition of hydrothermally altered rocks and sediments from the Middle Valley, ODP Leg 139 data

The Middle Valley segment at the northern end of the Juan de Fuca Ridge is a deep extensional rift blanketed with 200-500 m of Pleistocene turbiditic sediment. Sites 857 and 858 were drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 139 to determine whether these two sites were hydrologically linked end members of an active hydrothermal circulation system. Site 858 was placed in an area of active hydrothermal discharge with fluids up to 270°C venting through anhydrite-bearing mounds on top of altered sediment. The shallow basement of fine-grained basalt that underlies the vents at Site 858 is interpreted as a seamount that was subsequently buried by turbidites. Site 857 was placed 1.6 km south of the Site 858 vents in a zone of high heat flow and numerous seismically imaged ridge-parallel faults. Drilling at Site 857 encountered sediments that are increasingly altered with depth and that overlie a series of mafic sills at depths of 460-940 m below sea floor. Sill margins and adjacent baked sediment are highly altered to magnesian chlorite and crosscut with veins filled with quartz, chlorite, sulfides, epidote, and wairakite. The sill interiors vary from slightly altered, with unaltered plagioclase and clinopyroxene in a mesostasis replaced by chlorite, to local zones of intense alteration and brecciation. In these latter zones, the sill interiors are pervasively replaced by chlorite, epidote, quartz, pyrite, titanite, and rare actinolite. The most complete replacement is associated with brecciated horizons with low recovery and slickensides on fracture surfaces, which we interpret as intersections between faults and the sills. Geochemically, the alteration of the sill complex is reflected in significant whole-rock depletions in Ca, Sr, and Na with corresponding enrichments in Mg, Al, and most metals. The latter results from the formation of conspicuous sulfide poikiloblasts. In contrast, metamorphism of the Site 858 seamount includes incomplete albitization of plagioclase phenocrysts and replacement of sparse mafic phenocrysts. Much of the basement alteration at Site 858 is confined to crosscutting veins except for a highly altered and veined horizon at the contact between basaltic basement and the overlying sediment. The sill complex at Site 857 is more highly depleted in 18O (d18O = 2.4 per mil - 4.7 per mil) and more pervasively replaced by secondary minerals relative to the extrusives at Site 858 (d18O = 4.5 per mil - 5.5 per mil). There is no evidence of significant albitization of the plagioclase at Site 857, suggesting high Ca/Na in the pore fluids. Fluid-inclusion data from hydrothermal minerals in altered mafic rocks and veins at Sites 857 and 858 show a consistency of homogenization temperatures, varying from 245 to 270°C, which is within the range of temperatures observed for the fluids venting at Site 858. The consistency of the fluid inclusion temperatures, the lack of albitization within the Site 857 sills, and the apparently low water/rock ratio collectively suggest that the sill complex at Site 857 is in thermal equilibrium and being altered by a highly evolved Ca-rich fluid similar to the fluids now venting at Site 858. The alteration evident in these two deep crustal drillsites is a result of the ongoing hydrothermal circulation and is consistent with downhole logging results, instrumented borehole results, and hydrothermal fluid chemistry. The pervasive alteration of the laterally extensive sill-sediment complex at Site 857 determines the chemistry of the fluids that are venting at Site 858. The limited alteration of the Site 858 lavas suggests that this basement edifice acts as a penetrator or ventilator for the regional hydrothermal reservoir with much of the flow focussed at the highly altered and veined sediment-basalt contact.

Pollen record and age determiation of sediments from the Labaz Lake area

Pollen records from perennially frozen sequences provide vegetation and climate reconstruction for the last 48,000 14C years in the central part of Taymyr Peninsula. Open larch forest with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana grew during the Kargin (Middle Weichselian) Interstade, ca. 48,000-25,000 14C yr B.P. The climate was generally warmer and wetter than today. Open steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Poaceae, Asteraceae, and herb tundralike communities with dwarf Betula and Salix dominated during the Sartan (Late Weichselian) Stade, ca. 24,000-10,300 14C yr B.P. The statistical information method used for climate reconstruction shows that the coldest climate was ca. 20,000-17,000 14C yr B.P. A warming (Allerød Interstade?) with mean July temperature ca. 1.5°C warmer than today occurred ca. 12,000 14C yr B.P. The following cooling with temperatures about 3°-4°C cooler than present and precipitation about 100 mm lower corresponds well with the Younger Dryas Stade. Tundra-steppe vegetation changed to Betula nana-Alnus fruticosa shrub tundra ca. 10,000 14C yr B.P. Larch appeared in the area ca. 9400 14C yr B.P. and disappeared after 2900 14C yr B.P. Cooling events ca. 10,500, 9600, and 8200 14C yr B.P. characterized the first half of the Holocene. A significant warming occurred ca. 8500 14C yr B.P., but the Holocene temperature maximum was at about 6000-4500 14C yr B.P. The vegetation cover approximated modern conditions ca. 2800 14C yr B.P. Late Holocene warming events occurred at ca. 3500, 2000, and 1000 14C yr B.P. A cooling (Little Ice Age?) took place between 500 and 200 14C yr ago.

Middle Campanian-lowermost Maastrichtian nannofossils and foraminifers of the northwestern Australian margin

The middle-late Campanian was marked by an increase in the bioprovinciality of calcareous microfossil assemblages into distinct Tethyan, Transitional, and Austral Provinces that persisted to the end of the Maastrichtian. The northwestern Australian margin belonged to the Transitional Province and the absence of key Tethyan marker species such as Radotruncana calcarata and Gansserina gansseri has led petroleum companies operating in the area to use the locally developed KCCM integrated calcareous microfossil zonation scheme. The KCCM zonation is a composite scheme comprising calcareous nannofossil (KCN), planktonic foraminiferal (KPF) and benthonic foraminiferal (KBF) zones. This paper presents the definitions and revisions of Zones KCCM8-19, from the highest occurrence (HO) of Aspidolithus parcus constrictus to the lowest occurrence (LO) of Ceratolithoides aculeus, and builds on our previous early-late Maastrichtian study. The presence of a middle-upper Campanian disconformity is confirmed by microfossil evidence from the Vulcan Sub-basin, Exmouth and Wombat plateaus, and the Southern Carnarvon Platform. In the Vulcan Sub-basin and on the Exmouth Plateau (ODP Hole 762C) the hiatus extends from slightly above the LO of common Rugoglobigerina rugosa to above the LO of Quadrum gothicum. On the Wombat Plateau (ODP Hole 761B) it spans from above the LO of Heterohelix semicostata to above the LO of Quadrum gothicum; and in the Southern Carnarvon Platform the disconformity has its longest duration from above the HO of Heterohelix semicostata to above the LO of Quadrum sissinghii. A significant revision of the events which define Zones KCCM18 and 19 was necessary owing to the observation that the LO of Ceratolithoides aculeus occurs below the HOs of Archaeoglobigerina cretacea and Stensioeina granulata incondita and the LO of common Rugoglobigerina rugosa. In the original zonation these events were considered to be coincident.

Global database of surface ocean particulate organic carbon export fluxes diagnosed from the 234Th technique

Through the processes of the biological pump, carbon is exported to the deep ocean in the form of dissolved and particulate organic matter. There are several ways by which downward export fluxes can be estimated. The great attraction of the 234Th technique is that its fundamental operation allows a downward flux rate to be determined from a single water column profile of thorium coupled to an estimate of POC/234Th ratio in sinking matter. We present a database of 723 estimates of organic carbon export from the surface ocean derived from the 234Th technique. Data were collected from tables in papers published between 1985 and 2013 only. We also present sampling dates, publication dates and sampling areas. Most of the open ocean Longhurst provinces are represented by several measurements. However, the Western Pacific, the Atlantic Arctic, South Pacific and the South Indian Ocean are not well represented. There is a variety of integration depths ranging from surface to 220m. Globally the fluxes ranged from -22 to 125 mmol of C/m**2/d. We believe that this database is important for providing new global estimate of the magnitude of the biological carbon pump.

Sedimentology of the southern Bellingshausen Sea

A major trough ('Belgica Trough') eroded by a palaeo-ice stream crosses the continental shelf of the southern Bellingshausen Sea (West Antarctica) and is associated with a trough mouth fan ('Belgica TMF') on the adjacent continental slope. Previous marine geophysical and geological studies investigated the bathymetry and geomorphology of Belgica Trough and Belgica TMF, erosional and depositional processes associated with bedform formation, and the temporal and spatial changes in clay mineral provenance of subglacial and glaciomarine sediments. Here, we present multi-proxy data from sediment cores recovered from the shelf and uppermost slope in the southern Bellingshausen Sea and reconstruct the ice-sheet history since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in this poorly studied area of West Antarctica. We combined new data (physical properties, sedimentary structures, geochemical and grain-size data) with published data (shear strength, clay mineral assemblages) to refine a previous facies classification for the sediments. The multi-proxy approach allowed us to distinguish four main facies types and to assign them to the following depositional settings: 1) subglacial, 2) proximal grounding-line, 3) distal sub-ice shelf/subsea ice, and 4) seasonal open-marine. In the seasonal open-marine facies we found evidence for episodic current-induced winnowing of near-seabed sediments on the middle to outer shelf and at the uppermost slope during the late Holocene. In addition, we obtained data on excess 210Pb activity at three core sites and 44 AMS 14C dates from the acid-insoluble fraction of organic matter (AIO) and calcareous (micro-)fossils, respectively, at 12 sites. These chronological data enabled us to reconstruct, for the first time, the timing of the last advance and retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) in the southern Bellingshausen Sea. We used the down-core variability in sediment provenance inferred from clay mineral changes to identify the most reliable AIO 14C ages for ice-sheet retreat. The palaeo-ice stream advanced through Belgica Trough after ~36.0 corrected 14C ka before present (B.P.). It retreated from the outer shelf at ~25.5 ka B.P., the middle shelf at ~19.8 ka B.P., the inner shelf in Eltanin Bay at ~12.3 ka B.P., and the inner shelf in Ronne Entrance at ~6.3 ka B.P.. The retreat of the WAIS and APIS occurred slowly and stepwise, and may still be in progress. This dynamical ice-sheet behaviour has to be taken into account for the interpretation of recent and the prediction of future mass-balance changes in the study area. The glacial history of the southern Bellingshausen Sea is unique when compared to other regions in West Antarctica, but some open questions regarding its chronology need to be addressed by future work.

Tree line shifts and disturbance events for sites studied in the Torneträsk area of sub-Arctic Sweden for the period 1800-2009

Aim: Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location: The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods: We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results: Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m/year assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m/year in elevation and +2.7 m/year in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions: In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.

Area wage survey report.

Title varies slightly.

Early-Middle Jurassic stratigraphy of the Fortrose-Chaslands region, southernmost South Island, New Zealand

The 40 km of coastline from Fortrose to Chaslands Mistake (southeastern South Island, New Zealand) comprises sediments that are part of the Early-Middle Jurassic of the Murihiku Terrane. The sediments are dominantly fluvial with some marine beds and alluvial fan deposition, and display an evolution of fluvial style which progresses from perennial flow to seasonal flow. The McPhee Cove Conglomerate is a prominent unit to the north. It has been used to separate two formations which would otherwise, on inherent lithological grounds, be difficult to distinguish. This paper discusses several similar conglomerates which occur in the south, but which are separated from the type area of the McPhee Conglomerate by major tectonic disruption. Hence, the existing lithostratigraphic nomenclature to the north, including the McPhee Cove Conglomerate, cannot be simply extended southwards. The Fortrose-Chaslands area appears to consist of two tectonic blocks, the Slope Point Block and the Brothers Block, which are separated from each other and from the adjacent Papatowai Block by major strike faults (or fault zones). A change is proposed to the existing stratigraphy which involves recognising all terrestrial sediments as part of the False Island Formation. Four prominent clast-supported conglomerate horizons are named as members of the False Islet Formation: the White Head Conglomerate, Black Bluff Conglomerate. Hoiho Conglomerate, and Slope Point Conglomerate Members. The latter contains five named conglomerate beds.

Palaeoclimatic implications of the growth history and stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta C-13) geochemistry of a Middle to Late Pleistocene stalagmite from central-western Italy

The age structure and, stable isotope composition of a stalagmite (CC I) from an upland cave in central-western Italy were studied to investigate regional response to global climatic changes. Four growth phases are constrained by 28 thermal ionization and multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry Th-U ages and reveal intermittent deposition through the period between Marine isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and 3 (similar to380 and similar to43 kyr). Most of the growth took place between similar to380 and similar to280 kyr, a period punctuated briefly by a hiatus in deposition through the glacial maximum of MIS 10. Growth was terminated abruptly at 280 kyr just prior to the MIS 8 glacial maximum. With a present-day chamber temperature of 7.5 degreesC, the timing of hiatuses close to these glacial maxima point to freezing conditions at the time. No deposition was recorded through the entirety of MIS 7 and most of MIS 6, whilst two minor growth phases occurred at similar to141-125 and similar to43 kyr. Growth at 141 kyr indicates temperatures >0 degreesC at a time when MIS 6 ice volumes were close to their maximum. High stable carbon isotope (delta(13)C) values (similar to2.8parts per thousand to +3.1parts per thousand) throughout the stalagmite's growth reflect a persistently low input of biogenic CO2, indicating that the steep, barren and alpine-like recharge area of today ha's been in existence for at least the last similar to380 kyr. During MIS 9, the lowest delta(13)C values occur well after maximum interglacial conditions, suggesting a lag in the development of post-glacial soils in this high-altitude karst. The stable oxygen isotope (delta(18)O) trends match the main structural features of the major climate proxy records (SPECMAP, Vostok and Devils Hole), suggesting that the delta(18)O of CC1 has responded to global-scale climate changes, whilst remarkable similarity exists between CC1 delta(18)O and regional sea-surface temperature reconstructions from North Atlantic core ODP980 and southwest Pacific marine core MD97-2120 through the most detailed part of the CC1 record, MIS 9-8. The results suggest that CC1 and other stalagmites from the cave have the potential to capture a long record of regional temperature trends, particularly in regards to the relative severity of Pleistocene glacial stages. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

The evaluation of the spatial and temporal stability of sugarcane farm performance based on yield and commercial cane sugar

In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.