Systems of exchange values as tools for multi-agent organizations

This paper introduces systems of exchange values as tools for the organization of multi-agent systems. Systems of exchange values are defined on the basis of the theory of social exchanges, developed by Piaget and Homans. A model of social organization is proposed, where social relations are construed as social exchanges and exchange values are put into use in the support of the continuity of the performance of social exchanges. The dynamics of social organizations is formulated in terms of the regulation of exchanges of values, so that social equilibrium is connected to the continuity of the interactions. The concept of supervisor of social equilibrium is introduced as a centralized mechanism for solving the problem of the equilibrium of the organization The equilibrium supervisor solves such problem making use of a qualitative Markov Decision Process that uses numerical intervals for the representation of exchange values.

KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE BRIEFING PAPER ON JOURNAL BUSINESS MODELS

Over the past few years many studies have been published on the costs and economic benefits of journal business models. Early studies considered only the costs incurred in publishing traditional journals made available for purchase on a subscription or licensing business model. As the open access business model became available, some studies also covered the cost of making research articles available in open access journals. More recent studies have taken a broader perspective, looking at the position of journal publishers in the market and their business models in the context of the economic benefits from research dissemination. This briefing paper also looks at the outcomes of the broadly cited RIN study and various national studies performed by John Houghton. All links provided in footnotes in this Briefing Paper are to studies available in open access.

Asymptotic scattering and duality in the one-dimensional three-state quantum Potts model on a lattice

We determine numerically the single-particle and the two-particle spectrum of the three-state quantum Potts model on a lattice by using the density matrix renormalization group method, and extract information on the asymptotic (small momentum) S-matrix of the quasiparticles. The low energy part of the finite size spectrum can be understood in terms of a simple effective model introduced in a previous work, and is consistent with an asymptotic S-matrix of an exchange form below a momentum scale p*. This scale appears to vanish faster than the Compton scale, mc, as one approaches the critical point, suggesting that a dangerously irrelevant operator may be responsible for the behaviour observed on the lattice.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Tutors as mediators of exchange student experiences: evaluation of the international student tutor system at the University of Turku

As academic student mobility is increasing, improving the functionality of international operations is recognised as a competitive advantage at tertiary education institutions. Although many scholars have researched the experiences of exchange students, the role of student tutors and their contribution to exchange students’ experiences is still an unknown factor. This research examines international tutoring at the University of Turku, and aims to understand better the way tutoring contributes to exchange experiences and to explore the functionality of the tutor system and discover areas for improvements. To achieve these goals, the research seeks to answer the fundamental research question: What is the role of tutors in mediating exchange experiences? The theoretical framework combines literature on mediating exchange experiences, the phenomenon of studying abroad, the process of adaptation, the importance of cross-cultural communication, and the role of student tutors as mediators. Based on the literature review, a theoretical model for studying the mediation of exchange experiences is introduced. The model’s applicability and validity is examined through a case study. Three methods were used in the empirical research: surveys, participant observations, and interviews. These methods provided extensive data from three major parties of the tutor system: tutors, exchange students, and the international office. The findings of the research reveal that tutoring – instrumental leading and social and cultural mediating – generates both negative and positive experiences depending on the individuals’ expectations, motivations, relationships, and the nature of the tutoring. Although functional, there are a few weaknesses in the tutor system. Tutors tend to act as effective instrumental leaders, but often fail to create a friendship and contribute to the exchange students’ experience through social and cultural mediation, which is significantly more important in the exchange students’ overall experience in terms of building networks, adapting, gaining emotional experiences, and achieving the stage of personal development and mental change. Based on the weaknesses, three improvements are suggested: (1) increasing comprehensive sharing of information, effective communication, and collective cooperation, (2) emphasising the importance of social and cultural mediation and increasing the frequency of interaction between tutors and exchange students, and (3) improving the recruitment and training, revising the process of reporting and rewarding, and finally, enhancing services and coordination.

A kinetic energy budget and internal instabilities in the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model

An energy analysis of the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM) reveals the instability processes in the model. The main source of time-mean kinetic energy is the wind stress and the main sink is transfer to mean potential energy. The wind forcing thus helps maintain the density structure. Transient motions result from internal instabilities of the Bow rather than seasonal variations of the forcing. Baroclinic instability is found to be an important mechanism in FRAM. The highest values of available potential energy are found in the western boundary regions as well as in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region. All subregions with predominantly zonal flow are found to be baroclinically unstable. The observed deficit of eddy kinetic energy in FRAM occurs as a result of the high lateral friction, which decreases the growth rates of the most unstable waves. This high friction is required for the numerical stability of the model and can only be made smaller by using a finer horizontal resolution. A grid spacing of at least 10-15 km would be required to resolve the most unstable waves in the southern part of the domain. Barotropic instability is also found to be important for the total domain balance. The inverse transfer (that is, transfer from eddy to mean kinetic energy) does not occur anywhere, except in very localized tight jets in the ACC. The open boundary condition at the northern edge of the model domain does not represent a significant source or sink of eddy variability. However, a large exchange between internal and external mode energies is found to occur. It is still unclear how these boundary conditions affect the dynamics of adjacent regions.

Radiogenic isotopes in the Mediterranean Sea: water mass exchange and precessional variability during the Messinian

During the late Miocene, exchange between the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean changed dramatically, culminating in the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC). Understanding Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange at that time could answer the enigmatic question of how so much salt built up within the Mediterranean, while furthering the development of a framework for future studies attempting to understand how changes may have impacted global thermohaline circulation. Due to their association with specific water masses at different scales, radiogenic Sr, Pb, and Nd isotope records were generated from various archives contained within marine deposits to endeavour to understand better late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. The archives used include foraminiferal calcite (Sr), fish teeth and bone (Nd), dispersed authigenic ferromanganese oxyhydroxides (Nd, Pb), and a ferromanganese crust (Pb). The primary focus is on sediments preserved at one end of the Betic corridor, a gateway that once connected the Mediterranean to the Atlantic through southern Spain, although other locations are investigated. The Betic gateway terminated within several marginal sub-basins before entering the Western Mediterranean; one of these is the Sorbas Basin, a well-studied location whose sediments have been astronomically tuned at high temporal resolution, providing the necessary age control for sub-precessional resolution records. Since the climatic history of the Mediterranean is strongly controlled by precessional changes in regional climate, the aim was to produce records at high (sub-precessional) temporal resolution, to be able to observe clearly any precessional cyclicity driven by regional climate which could be superimposed over longer trends. This goal was achieved for all records except the ferromanganese crust record. The 87Sr/86Sr isotope record (Ch. 3) shows precessional frequency excursions away from the global seawater curve. As precessional frequency oscillations are unexpected for this setting, a numerical box model was used to determine the mechanisms causing the excursions. To enable parameterisation of model variables, regional Sr characteristics, data from general circulation model HadCM3L, and new benthic foraminiferal assemblage data are employed. The model results imply that the Sorbas Basin likely had a positive hydrologic budget in the late Miocene, very different to that of today. Moreover, the model indicates that the mechanism controlling the Sr isotope ratio of Sorbas Basin seawater was not restriction, but a lack of density-driven exchange with the Mediterranean. Beyond improving our understanding of how marginal Mediterranean sub-basins may evolve different isotope signatures, these results have implications for astronomical tuning and stratigraphy in the region, findings which are crucial considering the geological and climatic history of the late Miocene Mediterranean is based entirely on marginal deposits. An improved estimate for the Nd isotope signature of late Miocene Mediterranean Outflow (MO) was determined by comparing Nd isotope signatures preserved in the deeper Alborán Sea at ODP Site 978 with literature data as well as the signature preserved in the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 4; -9.34 to -9.92 ± 0.37 εNd(t)). It was also inferred that it is unlikely that Nd isotopes can be used reliably to track changes in circulation within the shallow settings characteristic of the Mediterranean-Atlantic connections; this is significant in light of a recent publication documenting corridor closure using Nd isotopes. Both conclusions will prove useful for future studies attempting to understand changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. Excursions to high values, with precessional frequency, are also observed in the radiogenic Pb isotope record for the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 5). Widening the scope to include locations further away from the gateways, records were produced for late Miocene sections on Sicily and Northern Italy, and similar precessional frequency cyclicity was observed in the Pb isotope records for these sites as well. Comparing these records to proxies for Saharan dust and available whole rock data indicates that, while further analysis is necessary to draw strong conclusions, enhanced dust production during insolation minima may be driving the observed signal. These records also have implications for astronomical tuning; peaks in Pb isotope records driven by Saharan dust may be easier to connect directly to the insolation cycle, providing improved astronomical tuning points. Finally, a Pb isotope record derived using in-situ laser ablation performed on ferromanganese crust 3514-6 from the Lion Seamount, located west of Gibraltar within the MO plume, has provided evidence that plume depth shifted during the Pliocene. The record also suggests that Pb isotopes may not be a suitable proxy for changes in late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange, since the Pb isotope signatures of regional water masses are too similar. To develop this record, the first published instance of laser ablation derived 230Thexcess measurements are combined with 10Be dating.

Model predictive control applied to a supply chain management problem

Supply chains are ubiquitous in any commercial delivery systems. The exchange of goods and services, from different supply points to distinct destinations scattered along a given geographical area, requires the management of stocks and vehicles fleets in order to minimize costs while maintaining good quality services. Even if the operating conditions remain constant over a given time horizon, managing a supply chain is a very complex task. Its complexity increases exponentially with both the number of network nodes and the dynamical operational changes. Moreover, the management system must be adaptive in order to easily cope with several disturbances such as machinery and vehicles breakdowns or changes in demand. This work proposes the use of a model predictive control paradigm in order to tackle the above referred issues. The obtained simulation results suggest that this strategy promotes an easy tasks rescheduling in case of disturbances or anticipated changes in operating conditions. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014 -- We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective -- We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks -- In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions

Exchange market pressure and incidence of currency crises in Norway

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

Proton Form Factor Puzzle and the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer(CLAS) Two-Photon Exchange Experiment

The electromagnetic form factors are the most fundamental observables that encode information about the internal structure of the nucleon. The electric ($G_{E}$) and the magnetic ($G_{M}$) form factors contain information about the spatial distribution of the charge and magnetization inside the nucleon. A significant discrepancy exists between the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors of the proton. One possible explanation for the discrepancy is the contributions of two-photon exchange (TPE) effects. Theoretical calculations estimating the magnitude of the TPE effect are highly model dependent, and limited experimental evidence for such effects exists. Experimentally, the TPE effect can be measured by comparing the ratio of positron-proton elastic scattering cross section to that of the electron-proton $\large(R = \frac{\sigma (e^{+}p)}{\sigma (e^{-}p)}\large)$. The ratio $R$ was measured over a wide range of kinematics, utilizing a 5.6 GeV primary electron beam produced by the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. This dissertation explored dependence of $R$ on kinematic variables such as squared four-momentum transfer ($Q^{2}$) and the virtual photon polarization parameter ($\varepsilon$). A mixed electron-positron beam was produced from the primary electron beam in experimental Hall B. The mixed beam was scattered from a liquid hydrogen (LH$_{2}$) target. Both the scattered lepton and the recoil proton were detected by the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). The elastic events were then identified by using elastic scattering kinematics. This work extracted the $Q^{2}$ dependence of $R$ at high $\varepsilon$ ($\varepsilon > $ 0.8) and the $\varepsilon$ dependence of $R$ at $\langle Q^{2} \rangle \approx 0.85$ GeV$^{2}$. In these kinematics, our data confirm the validity of the hadronic calculations of the TPE effect by Blunden, Melnitchouk, and Tjon. This hadronic TPE effect, with additional corrections contributed by higher excitations of the intermediate state nucleon, largely reconciles the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors.

Integration of a Sedimentation Module to a Hydrologic Model and its Application to a Mercury TMDL Analysis

This research is part of continued efforts to correlate the hydrology of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and Bear Creek (BC) with the long term distribution of mercury within the overland, subsurface, and river sub-domains. The main objective of this study was to add a sedimentation module (ECO Lab) capable of simulating the reactive transport mercury exchange mechanisms within sediments and porewater throughout the watershed. The enhanced model was then applied to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) mercury analysis for EFPC. That application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, river discharges, and mercury concentrations data that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was executed to reduce computational time, predict flow discharges, total mercury concentration, flow duration and mercury mass rate curves at key monitoring stations under various hydrological and environmental conditions and scenarios. The computational results provided insight on the relationship between discharges and mercury mass rate curves at various stations throughout EFPC, which is important to best understand and support the management mercury contamination and remediation efforts within EFPC.

Tail gas catalyzed N2O decomposition over Fe-beta zeolite. On the promoting role of framework connected AlO6 sites in the vicinity of Fe by controlled dealumination during exchange

A novel route to prepare highly active and stable N2O decomposition catalysts is presented, based on Fe-exchanged beta zeolite. The procedure consists of liquid phase Fe(III) exchange at low pH. By varying the pH systematically from 3.5 to 0, using nitric acid during each Fe(III)-exchange procedure, the degree of dealumination was controlled, verified by ICP and NMR. Dealumination changes the presence of neighbouring octahedral Al sites of the Fe sites, improving the performance for this reaction. The so-obtained catalysts exhibit a remarkable enhancement in activity, for an optimal pH of 1. Further optimization by increasing the Fe content is possible. The optimal formulation showed good conversion levels, comparable to a benchmark Fe-ferrierite catalyst. The catalyst stability under tail gas conditions containing NO, O2 and H2O was excellent, without any appreciable activity decay during 70 h time on stream. Based on characterisation and data analysis from ICP, single pulse excitation NMR, MQ MAS NMR, N2 physisorption, TPR(H2) analysis and apparent activation energies, the improved catalytic performance is attributed to an increased concentration of active sites. Temperature programmed reduction experiments reveal significant changes in the Fe(III) reducibility pattern with the presence of two reduction peaks; tentatively attributed to the interaction of the Fe-oxo species with electron withdrawing extraframework AlO6 species, causing a delayed reduction. A low-temperature peak is attributed to Fe-species exchanged on zeolitic AlO4 sites, which are partially charged by the presence of the neighbouring extraframework AlO6 sites. Improved mass transport phenomena due to acid leaching is ruled out. The increased activity is rationalized by an active site model, whose concentration increases by selectively washing out the distorted extraframework AlO6 species under acidic (optimal) conditions, liberating active Fe species.