945 resultados para Mean Squared Error
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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This study aimed to assess measurements of temperature and relative humidity obtained with HOBO a data logger, under various conditions of exposure to solar radiation, comparing them with those obtained through the use of a temperature/relative humidity probe and a copper-constantan thermocouple psychrometer, which are considered the standards for obtaining such measurements. Data were collected over a 6-day period (from 25 March to 1 April, 2010), during which the equipment was monitored continuously and simultaneously. We employed the following combinations of equipment and conditions: a HOBO data logger in full sunlight; a HOBO data logger shielded within a white plastic cup with windows for air circulation; a HOBO data logger shielded within a gill-type shelter (multi-plate prototype plastic); a copper-constantan thermocouple psychrometer exposed to natural ventilation and protected from sunlight; and a temperature/relative humidity probe under a commercial, multi-plate radiation shield. Comparisons between the measurements obtained with the various devices were made on the basis of statistical indicators: linear regression, with coefficient of determination; index of agreement; maximum absolute error; and mean absolute error. The prototype multi-plate shelter (gill-type) used in order to protect the HOBO data logger was found to provide the best protection against the effects of solar radiation on measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The precision and accuracy of a device that measures temperature and relative humidity depend on an efficient shelter that minimizes the interference caused by solar radiation, thereby avoiding erroneous analysis of the data obtained.
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Pós-graduação em Ciências Ambientais - Sorocaba
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Evaluated statistical equations estimates (based on radiometric fractions) of the hourly diffuse radiation incident on inclined surfaces for the North to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85°, the climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. The database was generated from April/1998 to December/2007, with measures in the three tilted surfaces in different periods, but concomitant to the horizontal plane. In the validation of the equations were used indicative statistics MBE (mean absolute error), RMSE (square root mean square error) and index adjustment (d) for three inclinations and conditions of sky coverage. The increased angle of inclination of the surface led to increased scattering of hourly values for the coefficient of atmospheric transmissivity of diffuse radiation for inclined and horizontal surfaces. Estimates of diffuse radiation on the basis of hourly tilted horizontal global radiation occur for quadratic polynomial models, which adjust K'Dβ maximum values of between 0.14 and 0.30 for winter and summer when KTH varies between 0.40 and 0.66, indicating that energy, the highest values of diffuse radiation occur in partly cloudy sky conditions and / or partially open. The increase in atmospheric transmissivity decreases the performance of annual and monthly equations at all inclinations.
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Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was introduced into Swedish farmed deer herds in 1987. Epidemiological investigations showed that 10 deer herds had become infected (July 1994) and a common source of infection, a consignment of 168 imported farmed fallow deer, was identified (I). As trace-back of all imported and in-contact deer was not possible, a control program, based on tuberculin testing, was implemented in July 1994. As Sweden has been free from BTB since 1958, few practicing veterinarians had experience in tuberculin testing. In this test, result relies on the skill, experience and conscientiousness of the testing veterinarian. Deficiencies in performing the test may adversely affect the test results and thereby compromise a control program. Quality indicators may identify possible deficiencies in testing procedures. For that purpose, reference values for measured skin fold thickness (prior to injection of the tuberculin) were established (II) suggested to be used mainly by less experienced veterinarians to identify unexpected measurements. Furthermore, the within-veterinarian variation of the measured skin fold thickness was estimated by fitting general linear models to data (skin fold measurements) (III). The mean square error was used as an estimator of the within-veterinarian variation. Using this method, four (6%) veterinarians were considered to have unexpectedly large variation in measurements. In certain large extensive deer farms, where mustering of all animals was difficult, meat inspection was suggested as an alternative to tuberculin testing. The efficiency of such a control was estimated in paper IV and V. A Reed Frost model was fitted to data from seven BTB-infected deer herds and the spread of infection was estimated (< 0.6 effective contacts per deer and year) (IV). These results were used to model the efficiency of meat inspection in an average extensive Swedish deer herd. Given a 20% annual slaughter and meat inspection, the model predicted that BTB would be either detected or eliminated in most herds (90%) 15 years after introduction of one infected deer. In 2003, an alternative control for BTB in extensive Swedish deer herds, based on the results of paper V, was implemented.
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Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.
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The 3PL model is a flexible and widely used tool in assessment. However, it suffers from limitations due to its need for large sample sizes. This study introduces and evaluates the efficacy of a new sample size augmentation technique called Duplicate, Erase, and Replace (DupER) Augmentation through a simulation study. Data are augmented using several variations of DupER Augmentation (based on different imputation methodologies, deletion rates, and duplication rates), analyzed in BILOG-MG 3, and results are compared to those obtained from analyzing the raw data. Additional manipulated variables include test length and sample size. Estimates are compared using seven different evaluative criteria. Results are mixed and inconclusive. DupER augmented data tend to result in larger root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and lower correlations between estimates and parameters for both item and ability parameters. However, some DupER variations produce estimates that are much less biased than those obtained from the raw data alone. For one DupER variation, it was found that DupER produced better results for low-ability simulees and worse results for those with high abilities. Findings, limitations, and recommendations for future studies are discussed. Specific recommendations for future studies include the application of Duper Augmentation (1) to empirical data, (2) with additional IRT models, and (3) the analysis of the efficacy of the procedure for different item and ability parameter distributions.