Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitorization of alveolar deposited surface area of nanoparticles and ultrafine particles in different environments

Nanotechnology is an important emerging industry with a projected annual market of around one trillion dollars by 2015. It involves the control of atoms and molecules to create new materials with a variety of useful functions. Although there are advantages on the utilization of these nano-scale materials, questions related with its impact over the environment and human health must be addressed too, so that potential risks can be limited at early stages of development. At this time, occupational health risks associated with manufacturing and use of nanoparticles are not yet clearly understood. However, workers may be exposed to nanoparticles through inhalation at levels that can greatly exceed ambient concentrations. Current workplace exposure limits are based on particle mass, but this criteria could not be adequate in this case as nanoparticles are characterized by very large surface area, which has been pointed out as the distinctive characteristic that could even turn out an inert substance into another substance exhibiting very different interactions with biological fluids and cells. Therefore, it seems that, when assessing human exposure based on the mass concentration of particles, which is widely adopted for particles over 1 μm, would not work in this particular case. In fact, nanoparticles have far more surface area for the equivalent mass of larger particles, which increases the chance they may react with body tissues. Thus, it has been claimed that surface area should be used for nanoparticle exposure and dosing. As a result, assessing exposure based on the measurement of particle surface area is of increasing interest. It is well known that lung deposition is the most efficient way for airborne particles to enter the body and cause adverse health effects. If nanoparticles can deposit in the lung and remain there, have an active surface chemistry and interact with the body, then, there is potential for exposure. It was showed that surface area plays an important role in the toxicity of nanoparticles and this is the metric that best correlates with particle-induced adverse health effects. The potential for adverse health effects seems to be directly proportional to particle surface area. The objective of the study is to identify and validate methods and tools for measuring nanoparticles during production, manipulation and use of nanomaterials.

Influence of network effects on the diffusion of information systems: the case of open source

Doutoramento em Gestão

Spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes analysis and monitoring in the Valencia Municipality, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Land use/ land cover change and its impact on soil erosion process in Begnas Tal Rupa Tal watershed using geospatial tools, Kaski district, Nepal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Cournot model with investments to change the market size

We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.

Is land surface temperature an earthquake precursor?

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Recent droughts and the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in Iberia; a spatiotemporal analysis based on vegetation temperature condition Index (VTCI)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Portuguese average cost of capital

The oldest Portuguese share index still being calculated is the BVL/PSI-General, one which started the daily series on 5/Jan/1988 with a base value of 1000 points. Everyday a single value is computed based on the closing prices of all the shares included in the sample. Also, all corporate events affecting the price of any share beyond market sentiment are taken into account through proper adjustments, either in the numerator or the denominator of the formula. However, for dates before January 1988, there is nothing comparable to this index since the two different series known either never disclosed the methodology adopted to calculate the index or followed solutions not compatible with the above index. The present paper explains the solutions adopted to replicate as closely as possible the methodology of the BVL-General index to the main market of the Lisbon Exchange for the period 1978 – 1987. This is the first estimate of the historical Equity Risk Premium in Portugal above short-term risk-free rate from the re-opening of the market following the Carnation Revolution (and the accompanying nationalizations), to the present. In showing a value of the same order of magnitude found in other countries, the paper invites further studies on the effects of political decisions such as privatizations and joining the European Union.

The implementation of an Enterprise Geographical Information System to support Cadastre and Expropriation activities.

The processes of mobilization of land for infrastructures of public and private domain are developed according to proper legal frameworks and systematically confronted with the impoverished national situation as regards the cadastral identification and regularization, which leads to big inefficiencies, sometimes with very negative impact to the overall effectiveness. This project report describes Ferbritas Cadastre Information System (FBSIC) project and tools, which in conjunction with other applications, allow managing the entire life-cycle of Land Acquisition and Cadastre, including support to field activities with the integration of information collected in the field, the development of multi-criteria analysis information, monitoring all information in the exploration stage, and the automated generation of outputs. The benefits are evident at the level of operational efficiency, including tools that enable process integration and standardization of procedures, facilitate analysis and quality control and maximize performance in the acquisition, maintenance and management of registration information and expropriation (expropriation projects). Therefore, the implemented system achieves levels of robustness, comprehensiveness, openness, scalability and reliability suitable for a structural platform. The resultant solution, FBSIC, is a fit-for-purpose cadastre information system rooted in the field of railway infrastructures. FBSIC integrating nature of allows: to accomplish present needs and scale to meet future services; to collect, maintain, manage and share all information in one common platform, and transform it into knowledge; to relate with other platforms; to increase accuracy and productivity of business processes related with land property management.

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.

Students' choice of a master in management in Portugal: A means-end chain approach

In the increasingly competitive market of higher education introduced by the Bologna Declaration, understanding the decision-making of master in management students is at the center of institutional management and marketing efforts on its mission to attract prospective students in a less costly, more efficient manner. The means-end chain approach, applied to the choice of a Portuguese institution in which to pursue a master in management, points to the position in rankings and to the non-specificity of the program as the most important attributes. Additionally, results show that students with distinct demographic, household, or background characteristics choose in significantly different manners.

DISTRIBUTION AND FEEDING ECOLOGY OF THE AFRICAN TILAPIA Oreochromis mossambicus (TELEOSTEI, PERCIFORMES, CICHLIDAE) IN SURINAME (SOUTH AMERICA) WITH COMMENTS ON THE TILAPIA-KWIKWI (Hoplosternum littorale) (TELEOSTEI, SILURIFORMEs, CALLICHTHYIDAE) INTERACTION

The geographical distribution of the African Tilapia Oreochromis mossambicusin Suriname is restricted to a narrow strip of land along the Atlantic coast. Within the coastal plain, O. mossambicusoccurs in brackish lagoons, oligohaline canals, and shell-sand pit lakes. Physico-chemical characteristics and phytoplankton composition of representative Tilapia water bodies are described. Blue-green algae and fine flocculent detritus are dominant food items in the diet of the Tilapia, while Rotifera and microcrustacea are also important in the diet of larvae and juveniles. Intraspecific diet overlap among ontogenetic stages of the Tilapia did not differ significantly from 1, which means that these diets showed complete overlap. Interspecific diet overlap between the Tilapia and the indigenous armoured catfish Hoplosternum littoralewere moderate or low. The results are discussed in relation to recent developments in the Surinamese fisheries and aquaculture sector.