Methodological Report on Kaul and Wolf's Working Papers on the Effect of Plain Packaging on Smoking Prevalence in Australia and the Criticism Raised by OxyRomandie

This report contains a methodological assessment of two working papers by Ashok Kaul and Michael Wolf on the effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia and the criticism raised against these working papers by OxyRomandie. First, the potential of the data used by Kaul and Wolf for identifying causal effects is discussed. Second, a reanalysis of the data is provided. Third, the criticism raised by OxyRomandie is commented.

Primary lung cancer after breast cancer: The role of radiation therapy and cigarette smoking

The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

Determining acquisition and cessation antecedents to adolescent cigarette smoking for development of intervention strategies

Our national focus and emphasis on the promotion of healthy behavior choices regarding tobacco and other drugs continues to target adolescents. Multiple studies have shown that adolescence is the optimum period for the prevention of substance use initiation as life-long patterns of health behaviors are established during this critical developmental stage. Tobacco use is associated with an increase in morbid and mortal health conditions of which prevalence increases throughout the lifespan. Attention to the antecedents of preventable health conditions aims to modify the risks and identify health promotion factors. Modifying antecedent factors for tobacco initiation in youth and identifying protective factors for successful smoking cessation has major public health implications across the lifespan. Of foremost interest are those risk factors and resultant behaviors that predict a youth's probability of initiating cigarette use and their cessation of cigarette use. Specifically, this dissertation supports previous results identifying intervention variables on the initiation/cessation continuum model especially with the established predictors of smoking (decisional balance and susceptibility) and with more recently identified predictors of smoking (nicotine dependence and withdrawal symptoms) in current and former smokers in a sample of high school students in Austin and Houston, Texas. These results offer insight for the development of appropriate intervention program strategies for our youth. ^

Sociodemographic characteristics as predictors of successful smoking cessation among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers

Few studies have examined predictors of smoking abstinence among Hispanic groups. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relations of sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related factors with smoking abstinence among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers. This study utilized previously collected data from Hispanic Spanish-speaking smokers (N = 246) who participated in a study entitled Smoking Cessation Services for Hispanic Smokers in Texas. ^ The first study examined sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related mechanisms that predicted smoking abstinence among this group. Two of the characteristics were related to smoking abstinence, marital status and acculturation level. Being unmarried increased the likelihood of being abstinent at the 12 week assessment (OR = 1.80). Those in the high acculturation group were twice as likely to be abstinent (OR = 2.24). Of the smoking related mechanisms, those with higher positive reinforcement expectancies were less likely to be abstinent (OR = .86), as were those with a higher level of affiliative attachment (OR = .86), a higher level of craving (OR = .78) and a higher tolerance to the effect of smoking (OR = .74). The second study was to examine the relationship of objective measures of socioeconomic status (SES) (income, education, or employment) with smoking abstinence among this group. This study also compared the relationship of a subjective measure of SES (Social Status Ladder) to smoking abstinence. None of the objective measures of SES were related to smoking abstinence at the 12 week assessment. The subjective measure of SES did predict smoking abstinence (OR = 1.9) indicting that those that rated themselves ≤4 on the SES scale were more likely to be abstinent. ^ Although this group was recruited using various methods across the state of Texas, the fact that they preferred to interact with the counselor in Spanish may limit the study findings. The results of this study highlight the need for research to examine specific subgroups of people and understand the special circumstances that influence their health behaviors. Furthering our knowledge of the relations between sociodemographic characteristics and smoking cessation could lead to interventions that reduce disparities in smoking cessation. ^

Effect of maternal weight status on the relationship between prenatal smoking and infant birth weight

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of maternal pre-pregnancy weight status on the relationship between prenatal smoking and infant birth weight (IBW). Prenatal cigarette smoking and maternal weight exert opposing effects on IBW; smoking decreases birth weight while maternal pre-pregnancy weight is positively correlated with birth weight. As such, mutual effect modification may be sufficiently significant to alter the independent effects of these two birth weight correlates. Finding of such an effect has implications of prenatal smoking cessation education. Perception of risk is an important determinant of smoking cessation, and reduced or low birth weight (LBW) as a smoking-associated risk predominates prenatal smoking counseling and education. In a population such as the US, where obesity is becoming epidemic, particularly among minority and low-income groups, perception of risk may be lowered should increased maternal size attenuate the effect of smoking. Previous studies have not found a significant interaction effect of prenatal smoking and maternal pre-pregnancy weight on IBW; however, use of self-reported smoking status may have biased findings. Reliability of self-reported smoking status reported in the literature is variable, with deception rates ranging from a low of 5% to as high as 16%. This study, using data from a prenatal smoking cessation project, in which smoking status was validated by saliva cotinine, was an opportunity to assess effect modification of smoking and maternal weight using biochemically determined smoking status in lieu of self report. Stratified by saliva cotinine, 151 women from a prenatal smoking cessation cohort, who were 18 years and older and had full-term, singleton births, were included in this study. The effect of smoking in terms of mean birth weight across three levels of maternal pre-pregnancy weight was assessed by general linear modeling procedures, adjusting for other known correlates of IBW. Effect modification was marginally significant, p = .104, but only with control for differential effects among racial/ethnic groups. A smaller than planned sample of nonsmokers, or women who quit smoking during the pregnancy, prohibited rejection of the null hypothesis of no difference in the effect of smoking across levels of pre-pregnancy weight. ^

The role of smoking status on postoperative complications and survival in lung cancer patients presenting to M.D. Anderson Cancer Center

It is estimated that 50% of all lung cancer patients continue to smoke after diagnosis. Many of these lung cancer patients who are current smokers often experience tremendous guilt and responsibility for their disease, and feel it might be too late for them to quit smoking. In addition, many oncologists may be heard to say that it is 'too late', 'it doesn't matter', 'it is too difficult', 'it is too stressful' for their patients to stop smoking, or they never identify the smoking status of the patient. Many oncologists feel unprepared to address smoking cessation as part of their clinical practice. In reality, physicians can have tremendous effects on motivating patients, particularly when patients are initially being diagnosed with cancer. More information is needed to convince patients to quit smoking and to encourage clinicians to assist patients with their smoking cessation. ^ In this current study, smoking status at time of lung cancer diagnosis was assessed to examine its impact on complications and survival, after exploring the reliability of smoking data that is self-reported. Logistic Regression was used to determine the risks of smoking prior to lung resection. In addition, survival analysis was performed to examine the impact of smoking on survival. ^ The reliability of how patients report their smoking status was high, but there was some discordance between current smokers and recent quitters. In addition, we found that cigarette pack-year history and duration of smoking cessation were directly related to the rate of a pulmonary complication. In regards to survival, we found that current smoking at time of lung cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of early stage lung cancer. This evidence supports the idea that it is "never too late" for patients to quit smoking and health care providers should incorporate smoking status regularly into their clinical practice.^

Gene by smoking interaction in blood pressure

Hypertension (HT) is mediated by the interaction of many genetic and environmental factors. Previous genome-wide linkage analysis studies have found many loci that show linkage to HT or blood pressure (BP) regulation, but the results were generally inconsistent. Gene by environment interaction is among the reasons that potentially explain these inconsistencies between studies. Here we investigate influences of gene by smoking (GxS) interaction on HT and BP in European American (EA), African American (AA) and Mexican American (MA) families from the GENOA study. A variance component-based method was utilized to perform genome-wide linkage analysis of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and HT status, as well as bivariate analysis for SBP and DBP for smokers, non-smokers, and combined groups. The most significant results were found for SBP in MA. The strongest signal was for chromosome 17q24 (LOD = 4.2), increased to (LOD = 4.7) in bivariate analysis but there was no evidence of GxS interaction at this locus (p = 0.48). Two signals were identified only in one group: on chromosome 15q26.2 (LOD = 3.37) in non-smokers and chromosome 7q21.11 (LOD = 1.4) in smokers, both of which had strong evidence for GxS interaction (p = 0.00039 and 0.009 respectively). There were also two other signals, one on chromosome 20q12 (LOD = 2.45) in smokers, which became much higher in the combined sample (LOD = 3.53), and one on chromosome 6p22.2 (LOD = 2.06) in non-smokers. Neither peak had very strong evidence for GxS interaction (p = 0.08 and 0.06 respectively). A fine mapping association study was performed using 200 SNPs in 30 genes located under the linkage signals on chromosomes 15 and 17. Under the chromosome 15 peak, the association analysis identified 6 SNPs accounting for a 7 mmHg increase in SBP in MA non-smokers. For the chromosome 17 linkage peak, the association analysis identified 3 SNPs accounting for a 6 mmHg increase in SBP in MA. However, none of these SNPs was significant after correcting for multiple testing, and accounting for them in the linkage analysis produced very small reductions in the linkage signal. ^ The linkage analysis of BP traits considering the smoking status produced very interesting signals for SBP in the MA population. The fine mapping association analysis gave some insight into the contribution of some SNPs to two of the identified signals, but since these SNPs did not remain significant after multiple testing correction and did not explain the linkage peaks, more work is needed to confirm these exploratory results and identify the culprit variations under these linkage peaks. ^

Factors associated with smoking cessation using the 2005 National Health Interview Survey

Objectives. The objective of this study is to compare the socio-demographic, behavioral, and access to care characteristics of smokers who have quit smoking for one or more years and current smokers who have made an attempt to quit smoking within the last year. ^ Methods. Data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to compare current smokers who have tried to quit (n=2747) and former smokers who have quit for one or more years (n=6194). The data was analyzed using STATA 9.0 to perform statistical calculations. ^ Results. Age, education, race and income were associated with smoking status. Respondents aged 65 and older were 36 times more likely to have quit smoking. Education and income had higher odds ratios among quitters (OR=1.27 and OR=1.21) and Non-Hispanic Whites were the most likely to have quit smoking compared to Hispanics and Blacks. Adults with health insurance coverage were 3.44 times more likely to have quit smoking. ^ Discussion. Existing research suggests that individual factors relating to demographics behavior and access to care can impact a smoker's ability to quit smoking. This paper discusses the factors that affect cessation and which populations would benefit from additional research and targeted smoking cessation programs. ^

Sleep quality and quantity and associated factors among high school students from south Texas

Background. Insufficient and poor quality sleep among adolescents affects not only the cognitive functioning, but overall health of the individual. Existing research suggests that adolescents from varying ethnic groups exhibit differing sleep patterns. However, little research focuses on sleep patterns and associated factors (i.e. tobacco use, mental health indicators) among Hispanic youth. ^ Methods. The study population (n=2,536) included students in grades 9-12 who attended one of the three public high schools along the Texas-Mexico border in 2003. This was a cross sectional study using secondary data collected via a web-based, confidential, self-administered survey. Separate logistic regression models were estimated to identify factors associated with reduced (<9 hours/night) and poor quality sleep on average during weeknights. ^ Results. Of participants, 49.5% reported reduced sleep while 12.8% reported poor quality sleep. Factors significantly (p<0.05) associated with poor quality sleep were: often feeling stressed or anxious (OR=5.49), being born in Mexico (OR=0.65), using a computer/playing video games 15+ hours per week (OR=2.29), working (OR=1.37), being a current smoker (OR=2.16), and being a current alcohol user (OR=1.64). Factors significantly associated with reduced quantity of sleep were: often feeling stressed or anxious (OR=2.74), often having headaches/stomachaches (OR=1.77), being a current marijuana user (OR=1.70), being a current methamphetamine user (OR=4.92), and being a current alcohol user (OR=1.27). ^ Discussion. Previous research suggests that there are several factors that can influence sleep quality and quantity in adolescents. This paper discusses these factors (i.e. work, smoking, alcohol, etc.) found to be associated with poor sleep quality and reduced sleep quantity in the Hispanic adolescent population. A reduced quantity of sleep (81.20% of the participants) and a poor quality of sleep (12.80% of the participants) were also found in high school students from South Texas. ^

The association between mental health and cigarette smoking in active duty military members

Previous research has shown an association between mental health status and cigarette smoking. This study examined four specific mental health predictors and the outcome variable any smoking, defined as smoking one or more cigarettes in the past 30 days. The population included active duty military members serving in the United States Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. The data was collected during the 2005 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Active Duty Military Personnel, a component of the Defense Lifestyle Assessment Program. The sample size included 13,603 subjects. This cross sectional prevalence study consisted of descriptive statistics, univariate analysis, and multivariate logistic regression analysis of the four mental health predictors and the any smoking outcome variable. Multivariate adjustment showed an association between the four mental health predictors and any smoking. This association is consistent with previous literature and can help guide public health officials in the development of smoking prevention and cessation programs.^

An examination of spirituality, self efficacy, and smoking cessation among adults in Houston, Texas

Over the past decade there has been a growing interest in the association between spirituality and health outcomes. Little is known about the role of spirituality among adult smokers who are motivated to stop smoking. The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the relations among immutable individual differences, spirituality, and self efficacy among adults motivated to stop smoking. The first paper of this dissertation systematically reviewed literature to measure the concordance between spirituality and smoking status among adults in the United States. The second paper of this dissertation explored the association between spirituality and smoking cessation. We hypothesized that higher levels of spirituality were positively associated with smoking cessation. The third paper of this dissertation examined the association between perceived self efficacy and spirituality. We hypothesized that both high levels of self efficacy and spirituality were positively associated with smoking cessation.^ A total of 152 citations were identified based on the preliminary search of databases and reference lists. After a preliminary title- and abstract-based review, 17 full text articles were retrieved for further assessment. Of these, eight met the criteria for inclusion. Results of the systematic review suggest that there is inconsistent evidence to support or refute an association between spirituality and smoking status among adults.^ Smokers (N = 200) at least 18 years of age enrolled in a minimal contact smoking cessation intervention in Houston, Texas completed questionnaires. To examine our hypotheses we conducted cross-sectional analyses of responses to questions included in selected baseline questions and the final in-person visit three weeks post-quit day. Results of the logistic regression analyses indicated that individuals with higher levels of spirituality and self efficacy were significantly more likely to abstain from smoking. The positive association is also evident when controlling for employment, income, race, education, and nicotine dependence. The interaction between self efficacy and spirituality was not statistically significant in predicting smoking abstinence.^ Recommendations for future research and implications for smoking cessation interventions are discussed. Further research in this area would benefit from using standard measures of abstinence, recruiting larger and more diverse populations, and using longitudinal study designs.^

Cigarette smoking and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia among colposcopy patients

Epidemiologic and biochemical evidence suggest that smoking is an independent risk factor for cervical neoplasia; however, only two studies have adjusted by the potential confounding effect of human papillomavirus (HPV). To determine the association between self-reported current cigarette smoking and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), we conducted a case-control study that controlled for HPV infection and other reported risk factors. The medical records of all new patients referred to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC) Colposcopy Clinic were reviewed. The study population (n = 564) consisted of all white, black, and Hispanic non-pregnant women who were residents of Texas, and had no history of treatment for cervical neoplasia. Cases (n = 313) included women diagnosed at the UTMDACC with CIN; while controls (n = 251) included those patients diagnosed at the colposcopy clinic as non-CIN (negative 47%, inflammation or atypia 25%, and koilocytosis 27%). Diagnosis was based on a colposcopically directed biopsy in 95% of the subjects, and all subjects were tested for HPV by dot blot hybridization. The crude odds ratio for cigarette smoking and CIN was 1.37 (95% CI 0.97-1.95); however, after adjusting for HPV, age, education, race, number of sexual partners, and age at first sexual intercourse, the odds ratio decreased to 0.91 (95% CI 0.61-1.41). A higher crude odds ratio was observed with CIN 3 (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.08-2.83), but this effect also disappeared after adjustment (OR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.57-1.96). Similar results were observed when controlling only for HPV: OR = 1.11 (95% CI 0.77-1.59) for CIN combined and 1.25 (95% CI 0.76-2.08) for CIN 3. These findings suggest that cigarette smoking is not an independent risk factor for CIN in this population, and that HPV may be an important confounding factor for this association. ^

Genetic susceptibility, cigarette smoking, and wood dust exposure in lung cancer: Case control analyses

This case control study was conducted to assess the association between lung cancer risk, mutagen sensitivity (a marker of cancer susceptibility), and a putative lung carcinogen, wood dust exposure. There were 165 cases (98 African-Americans, 67 Mexican-Americans) with newly diagnosed, previously untreated lung cancer, and 239 controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and ethnicity.^ Mutagen sensitivity ($\ge$1 break/cell) was associated with a statistically significant elevated risk for lung cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 4.1, 95% confidence limits (CL) = 2.3,7.2). Wood dust exposure was also a significant predictor of risk (OR = 2.8, 95% CL = 1.2,6.6) after controlling for smoking and mutagen sensitivity. When stratified by ethnicity, wood dust exposure was a significant risk factor for African-Americans (OR = 4.0, 95% CL = 1.4,11.5), but not for Mexican-Americans (OR = 1.5, 95% CL = 0.3,7.1). Stratified analysis suggested a greater than multiplicative interaction between wood dust exposure and both mutagen sensitivity and smoking.^ The cases had significantly more breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5 than the controls did with ORs of 4.9 (95% CL = 2.0, 11.7) and 3.9 (95% CL = 1.6, 9.3), respectively. Breaks at 4p14, 4q27, 4q31, 5q21-22, 5q31, and 5q33 were significantly more common in lung cancer patients than in controls. Lung cancer risk had a dose-response relationship with breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5. Cigarette smoking had a strong interaction with breaks on chromosomes 2, 4, and 5.^ In a molecular cytogenetic study, using chromosome painting and G-banding, we showed that: (1) the proportion of chromosome 5 abnormalities surviving as chromosome-type aberrations remained significantly higher in cells of lung cancer cases (14%) than in controls (5%) (P $<$ 0.001). However, no significant differences were detected in chromosome 4 abnormalities between cases and controls; (2) the proportion of chromosome 5q13-22 abnormalities was 5.3% in the cases and 0.7% in the controls (P $<$ 0.001). 5q13-22 regions represented 40% of all abnormalities on chromosome 5 in the cases and only 14% in the controls.^ This study suggests that mutagen sensitivity, wood dust exposure, and cigarette smoking were independent risk factors for lung cancer, and the susceptibility of particular chromosome loci to mutagenic damage may be a genetic marker for specific types of lung cancer. ^