Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Long-term individual foraging site fidelity – why some gannets don’t change their spots

Many established models of animal foraging assume that individuals are ecologically equivalent. However, it is increasingly recognized that populations may comprise individuals who differ consistently in their diets and foraging behaviors. For example, recent studies have shown that individual foraging site fidelity (IFSF, when individuals consistently forage in only a small part of their population's home range) occurs in some colonial breeders. Short‐term IFSF could result from animals using a win–stay, lose–shift foraging strategy. Alternatively, it may be a consequence of individual specialization. Pelagic seabirds are colonial central‐place foragers, classically assumed to use flexible foraging strategies to target widely dispersed, spatiotemporally patchy prey. However, tracking has shown that IFSF occurs in many seabirds, although it is not known whether this persists across years. To test for long‐term IFSF and to examine alternative hypotheses concerning its cause, we repeatedly tracked 55 Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) from a large colony in the North Sea within and across three successive breeding seasons. Gannets foraged in neritic waters, predictably structured by tidal mixing and thermal stratification, but subject to stochastic, wind‐induced overturning. Both within and across years, coarse to mesoscale (tens of kilometers) IFSF was significant but not absolute, and foraging birds departed the colony in individually consistent directions. Carbon stable isotope ratios in gannet blood tissues were repeatable within years and nitrogen ratios were also repeatable across years, suggesting long‐term individual dietary specialization. Individuals were also consistent across years in habitat use with respect to relative sea surface temperature and in some dive metrics, yet none of these factors accounted for IFSF. Moreover, at the scale of weeks, IFSF did not decay over time and the magnitude of IFSF across years was similar to that within years, suggesting that IFSF is not primarily the result of win–stay, lose–shift foraging. Rather, we hypothesize that site familiarity, accrued early in life, causes IFSF by canalizing subsequent foraging decisions. Evidence from this and other studies suggests that IFSF may be common in colonial central‐place foragers, with far‐reaching consequences for our attempts to understand and conserve these animals in a rapidly changing environment.

The importance of independent marine evidence provision in a multi-use environment: MBA information resources and The Marine Life Information Network.

One of the most pressing challenges today is the need to manage our oceans on a sustainable basis, balancing opportunities for exploitation with the need for conservation and protection. A vital tool for informing sustainable management is access to accurate, up-to-date marine environmental data and information, which is also seen as ‘independent’ by industry, conservationists, policy-makers and other Stakeholders. The Marine Biological Association has specialised in providing independent evidence for over a century and hosts a number of programmes dedicated to independent evidence provision. For example, the Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) is the most comprehensive information resource for the marine environment of the British Isles and also the largest review of the effects of human activities and natural events on marine species and habitats ever undertaken. MarLIN, along with the Data Archive for Seabed Species and Habitats (DASSH and other MBA information resources, is currently being used to support a wide range of UK and European legislation as well as providing vital underpinning information for industry (e.g. through informing EIAs). We provide an overview of MarLIN in particular whilst examining the importance of ‘independent’ scientific information in a multi-use environment.

Impacts of climate change on non-native species

Anthropogenic changes to climate and extreme weather events have already led to the introduction of non-native species (NNS) to the North Atlantic. Regional climate models predict that there will be a continuation of the current trend of warming throughout the 21st century providing enhanced opportunities for NNS at each stage of the invasion process. Increasing evidence is now available to show that climate change has led to the northwards range expansion of a number of NNS in the UK and Ireland, such as the Asian club tunicate Styela clava and the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Providing definitive evidence though of the direct linkage between climate change and the spread of the majority of NNS is extremely challenging, due to other confounding factors, such as anthropogenic activity. Localised patterns of water movement and food supply may also be complicating the overall pattern of northwards range expansion, by preventing the expansion of some NNS, such as the slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata and the Chilean oyster Ostrea chilensis, from a particular region. A greater understanding of the other aspects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2, such as increased rainfall, heat waves, frequency of storm events, and ocean acidification may aid in increasing the confidence that scientists have in predicting the long term influence of climate change on the introduction, spread and establishment of NNS.

Life Around the Turbines

Life around the Turbines is an outreach project developed by the Marine Biological Association of the UK (MBA) funded by COWRIE (Collaborative Offshore Wind Research into the Environment). The project was designed to promote the need for renewable energy, raise awareness of marine biodiversity and generate discussions about offshore wind farms particularly with school children around Great Britain. The project has run from 2008 – 2014 and has involved workshops with schools all around Great Britain; production of online resources and a series of training events and tools for marine educators. All of the resources and workshops were developed to correlate with the national curricula for England, Scotland and Wales and cover a range of topics including science, citizenship and technology. Combining charismatic marine wildlife with technology and interactive, hands-on workshop activities has proved a successful and popular combination, received well by students and teachers. We present the methods of engagement used and some of the information received through a basic activity evaluation process. We will also share information about how conference participants can obtain and utilise free resources to support their own outreach and teaching at www.mba.ac.uk/education.

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100.

Questions of 'h' in Northern Ireland: Breathing New Life on the Aspiration Theory

This paper considers existing ideas concerning pronunciation of the letter name for (LNH) in Northern Irish English (NIE). Traditionally, the status of LNH realisation as an ethnic marker has gone unquestioned: Catholics are thought to say [het&Mac186;] while the Protestant norm is assumed to be [etS]. The phonetic difference between these realisations is consistently described as word-initial aspiration versus non-aspiration, with aspiration attributed exclusively to Irish language influence. Here, we show that an explanation based on aspiration alone is phonologically unsatisfying and question whether aspiration is, in fact, an Irish language or ethnically dictated phenomenon. It is further suggested here that the overwhelming stigmatisation of LNH realisation may be responsible for blocking a potential sound change in NIE. While this paper is not intended as a detailed account of ethnolinguistic differences in NI phonology, it engages critically with the over-simplistic and widespread notion that LNH realisation is a result of transfer from the Irish language to the English used by Catholics in Northern Ireland.

Measuring the health-related quality of life of people with ischaemic heart disease.

Objectives—To inform researchers and clinicians about the most appropriate generic and disease specific measures of health related quality of life for use among people with ischaemic heart disease. Methods—MEDLINE and BIDS were searched for research papers which contained a report of at least one of the three most common generic instruments or at least one of the five disease specific instruments used with ischaemic heart disease patients. Evidence for the validity, reliability, and sensitivity of these instruments was critically appraised. Results—Of the three generic measures—the Nottingham health profile, sickness impact profile, and short form 36 (SF-36)—the SF-36 appears to offer the most reliable, valid, and sensitive assessment of quality of life. However, a few of the SF-36 subscales lack a sufficient degree of sensitivity to detect change in a patient’s clinical condition. According to the best available evidence, the quality of life after myocardial infarction questionnaire should be preferred to the Seattle angina questionnaire, the quality of life index cardiac version, the angina pectoris quality of life questionnaire, and the summary index. Overall, research on disease specific measures is sparse compared to the number of studies which have investigated generic measures. Conclusions—An assessment of the quality of life of people with ischaemic heart disease should comprise a disease specific measure in addition to a generic measure. The SF-36 and the quality of life after myocardial infarction questionnaire (version 2) are the most appropriate currently available generic and disease specific measures of health related quality of life, respectively. Further research into the measurement of health related quality of life of people with ischaemic heart disease is required in order to address the problems (such as lack of sensitivity to detect change) identified by the review.

Generic, disease-specific and individualised approaches to measuring health-related quality of life among people with heart disease - a comparative analysis.

Increasing emphasis is being placed on the evaluation of health-related quality of life. However, there is no consensus on the definition of this concept and as a result there are a plethora of existing measurement instruments. Head-to-head comparisons of the psychometric properties of existing instruments are necessary to facilitate evidence-based decisions about which instrument should be chosen for routine use. Therefore, an individualised instrument (the modified Patient Generated Index), a generic instrument (the Short Form 36) and a disease-specific instrument (the Quality of Life after Myocardial Infarction questionnaire) were administered to patients with ischaemic heart disease (n=117) and the evidence for the validity, reliability and sensitivity of each instrument was examined and compared. The modified Patient Generated Index compared favourably with the other instruments but none of the instruments examined provided sound evidence for sensitivity to change. Therefore, any recommendation for the use of the individualised approach in the routine collection of health-related quality of life data in clinical practice must be conditional upon the submission of further evidence to support the sensitivity of such instruments.

Dispossessing bare life: Towards a theoretical framework for examining power relations through economic development at the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa

In the past twenty years an increasing number of Global South nations have vied for the rights to host prestigious and expensive sport mega events. This trend requires significant reflection given the enormous economic costs of these events, which often produce little capital gain for the host nation (Whitson & Horne, 2006). Furthermore, sport mega events are often utilized for their symbolic capital (Belanger, 2009), which sometimes manifests through forcing people from their land for the sake of “beautification” (Davis, 2006). In this project, then, I asked how technologies of power were utilized by FIFA, corporate stakeholders, and the South African government to control people who were marginal to, or impeded the success of, the World Cup in Nelspruit, South Africa. This project consisted of two parts: the first involved constructing a theoretical framework for better understanding power as it operates through sport mega events in general. To this end I employed Marxian notions of the ordering of physical space, Foucauldian conceptions of sovereignty and governmentality, and Agamben’s (1998) state of exception to determine how particular bodies are constituted and controlled through sport mega events. In the second part, I applied this theoretical framework to the events in South Africa to better elucidate how people became displaced and killed because of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. I used South African popular news and documentaries as empirical evidence and conducted a discursive analysis of said news media. Through this coverage it became apparent that the mega event created the conditions in which new forms of rogue sovereign partnerships could arise through a historically and spatially contingent process of capitalism. The rogue sovereigns’ para-juridico-political orders, the discourses and practices of accumulation by dispossession as a tactic and effect of govermentality, and other historical non-capital subjectivities such as racial identity, all contributed to constituting Agamben’s state of exception in which people could be displaced, killed or left to die in the events surrounding the World Cup.

Visual functioning and quality of life in the subfoveal radiotherapy study (SFRADS): SFRADS report 2

Aims: To determine whether or not self reported visual functioning and quality of life in patients with choroidal neovascularisation caused by age related macular degeneration (AMD) is better in those treated with 12 Gy external beam radiotherapy in comparison with untreated subjects. Methods: A multicentre single masked randomised controlled trial of 12 Gy of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) delivered as 6x2 Gy fractions to the macula of an affected eye versus observation. Patients with AMD, aged 60 years or over, in three UK hospital units, who had subfoveal CNV and a visual acuity equal to or better than 6/60 (logMAR 1.0). Methods: Data from 199 eligible participants who were randomly assigned to 12 Gy teletherapy or observation were available for analysis. Visual function assessment, ophthalmic examination, and fundus fluorescein angiography were undertaken at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after study entry. To assess patient centred outcomes, subjects were asked to complete the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV) and the SF-36 questionnaires at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months after enrolment to the study. Cross sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted using arm of study as grouping variable. Regression analysis was employed to adjust for the effect of baseline co-variates on outcome at 12 months and 24 months. Results: Both control and treated subjects had significant losses in visual functioning as seen by a progressive decline in mean scores in the four dimensions of the DLTV. There were no statistically significant differences between treatment and control subjects in any of dimensions of the DLTV at 12 months or 24 months after study entry. Regression analysis confirmed that treatment status had no effect on the change in DLTV dimensional scores. Conclusions: The small benefits noted in clinical measures of vision in treated eyes did not translate into better self reported visual functioning in patients who received treatment when compared with the control arm. These findings have implications for the design of future clinical trials and studies.

North European last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT; 15-9 ka) tephrochronology: extended limits and new events

High-precision correlation of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records is crucial for testing hypotheses of synchronous change. Although radiocarbon is the traditional method for dating late Quaternary sedimentary sequences, particularly during the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9?ka), there are inherent problems with the method, particularly during periods of climate change which are often accompanied by major perturbations in atmospheric radiocarbon content. An alternative method is the use of tephras that act as time-parallel marker horizons. Within Europe, numerous volcanic centres are known to have erupted during the LGIT, providing considerable potential for high-precision correlation independent of past radiocarbon fluctuations. Here we report the first identification of the Vedde Ash and Askja Tephra in Ireland, significantly extending the known provenance of these events. We have also identified two new horizons (the Roddans Port Tephras A and B) and tentatively recognise an additional horizon from Vallensgård Mose (Denmark) that provide crucial additional chronological control for the LGIT. Two phases of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) are reported, the lower Laacher See Tephra (LLST) and probably the C2 phase of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST-C2) indicating a more northeasterly distribution of this fan than reported previously.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.