Experimental crop growing in Jordan to develop methodology for the identification of ancient crop irrigation

Crop irrigation has long been recognized as having been important for the evolution of social complexity in several parts of the world. Structural evidence for water management, as in the form of wells, ditches and dams, is often difficult to interpret and may be a poor indicator of past irrigation that may have had no need for such constructions. It would be of considerable value, therefore, to be able to infer past irrigation directly from archaeo-botanical remains, and especially the type of archaeo-botanical remains that are relatively abundant in the archaeological record, such as phytoliths. Building on the pioneering work of Rosen and Wiener (1994), this paper describes a crop-growing experiment designed to explore the impact of irrigation on the formation of phytoliths within cereals. If it can be shown that a systemic and consistent relationship exists between phytolith size, structure and the intensity of irrigation, and if various taphonomic and palaeoenvironmental processes can be controlled for, then the presence of past irrigation can feasibly be inferred from the phytoliths recovered from the archaeological record.

Stratospheric temperature and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone

The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W m−2, which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W m−2 owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Tolerance of ruminant animals to high dose in-feed administration of a selenium-enriched yeast

The objective of the study was to determine if there were adverse effects on animal health and performance when a range of ruminant animals species were fed at least 10 times the maximum permitted European Union (EU) selenium (Se) dietary inclusion rate (0.568 mg Se/kg DM) in the form of selenium enriched yeast (SY) derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060. In a series of studies, dairy cows, beef cattle, calves and lambs were offered either a control diet which contained no Se supplement or a treatment diet which contained the same basal feed ingredients plus a SY supplement which increased total dietary Se from 0.15 to 6.25, 0.20 to 6.74, 0.15 to 5.86 and 0.14 to 6.63 mg Se/kg DM, respectively. The inclusion of the SY supplement (P < 0.001) increased whole blood Se concentrations, reaching maximum mean values of 716, 1,505, 1,377, and 724 ng Se/mL for dairy cattle, beef cattle, calves and lambs, respectively. Selenomethionine accounted for 10% of total whole blood Se in control animals whereas the proportion in SY animals ranged between 40 and 75%. Glutathione peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.9) activity was higher (P < 0.05) in SY animals when compared with controls. A range of other biochemical and hematological parameters were assessed, but few differences of biological significance were established between treatments groups. There were no differences between treatment groups within each species with regard to animal physical performance or overall animal health. It was concluded that there were no adverse effects on animal health, performance and voluntary feed intake to the administration of at least ten times the EU maximum, or approximately twenty times the US FDA permitted concentration of dietary Se in the form of SY derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060.

Selenium supplementation of lactating dairy cows: effects on milk production and total selenium content and speciation in blood, milk and cheese

Forty-multiparous Holstein cows were used in a 16-wk continuous design study to determine the effects of either selenium (Se) source, selenized yeast (SY) (derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060 Sel-Plex®) or sodium selenite (SS), or inclusion rate of SY on Se concentration and speciation in blood, milk and cheese. Cows received ad libitum a TMR with 1:1 forage:concentrate ratio on a dry matter (DM) basis. There were four diets (T1-T4) which differed only in either source or dose of Se additive. Estimated total dietary Se for T1 (no supplement), T2 (SS), T3 (SY) and T4 (SY) was 0.16, 0.30, 0.30 and 0.45 mg/kg DM, respectively. Blood and milk samples were taken at 28 day intervals and at each time point there were positive linear effects of SY on Se concentration in blood and milk. At day 112 blood and milk Se values for T1-T4 were 177, 208, 248, 279 ± 6.6 and 24, 38, 57, 72 ± 3.7 ng/g fresh material, respectively and indicate improved uptake and incorporation of Se from SY. While selenocysteine (SeCys) was the main selenised amino acid in blood its concentration was not markedly affected by treatment, but the proportion of total Se as selenomethionine (SeMet) increased with increasing inclusion rate of SY. In milk, there were no marked treatment effects on SeCys content, but Se source had a marked effect on the proportion of total Se as SeMet. At day 112 replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased the SeMet concentration of milk from 36 to 111 ng Se/g and its concentration increased further to 157 ng Se/g as the inclusion rate of SY increased further (T4) to provide 0.45 mg Se/kg TMR. Neither Se source nor inclusion rate effected the keeping quality of milk. At day 112, milk from T1, T2, and T3 was made into a hard cheese and Se source had a marked effect on total Se and the proportion of total Se comprised as either SeMet or SeCys. Replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased total Se, SeMet and SeCys content from 180 to 340 ng Se/g, 57 to 153 ng Se/g and 52 to 92 ng Se/g, respectively. Key words: dairy cow, milk and cheese, selenomethionine, selenocysteine, milk keeping quality

Selenium supplementation of lactating dairy cows: Effect on selenium concentration in blood, milk, urine and feces

The objectives were to determine effects of graded levels of selenized yeast derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (CNCM I-3060) on animal performance and in selenium concentrations in the blood, milk, feces, and urine of dairy cows compared with sodium selenite; and to provide preliminary data on the proportion of selenium as selenomethionine in the milk and blood. Twenty Holstein cows were used in a 5 × 5 Latin square design study in which all cows received the same total mixed rations, which varied only in source or concentration of dietary selenium. There were 5 experimental treatments. Total dietary selenium of treatment 1, which received no added selenium, was 0.15 mg/kg of dry matter, whereas values for treatments 2, 3, and 4, derived from selenized yeast, were 0.27, 0.33, and 0.40 mg/kg of dry matter, respectively. Treatment 5 contained 0.25 mg of selenium obtained from sodium selenite/kg of dry matter. There were no significant treatment effects on animal performance, and blood chemistry and hematology showed few treatment effects. Regression analysis noted significant positive linear effects of increasing dietary selenium derived from selenized yeast on selenium concentrations in the milk, blood, urine, and feces. In addition, milk selenium results indicated improved bioavailability of selenium from selenized yeast, compared with sodium selenite. Preliminary analyses showed that compared with sodium selenite, the use of selenized yeast increased the concentration of selenomethionine in the milk and blood. There was no indication of adverse effects on cow health associated with the use of selenized yeast.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

A critical assessment of unbalanced surface stresses: Some complementary considerations

The wide-ranging survey of twisted growth in polymers by Lotz and Cheng cites extensive evidence consistent with the relief of surface stress being the underlying cause. This complementary note contributes to the discussion by making three main points. First, it is necessary to go further and explain the key issue of how a consistent twist is maintained when, as commonly, this habit has a lower symmetry than the crystallographic lattice. Detailed study has shown that, in polyethylene, this occurs by reorganization of the initial fold surfaces. Second, the suggested explanation by Keith and Padden that. in polyethylene, the asymmetric habit derives from molecules adding to lamellae with inclined fold surfaces is invalid being doubly inconsistent with observation. Third, twisting has now been linked to faster growth by study of row structures in polyethylene. This produces inherently rough fold surfaces in Regime II whose internal stresses drive reorganization and twisting. For slower (Regime I) growth, fold surfaces form with and maintain ordered packing so providing no basis for twisting. These new insights radically alter the context of twisted growth and provide a firm factual basis for further work. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.