Első- és másodfajú etikai kudarcok (Type I and type II ethical errors)

A cikkben a szerző a piac és a kormányzat kudarcaiból kiindulva azonosítja a közjó elérését célzó harmadik rendszer, az etikai felelősség kudarcait. Statisztikai analógiát használva elsőfajú kudarcként azonosítja, mikor az etikát nem veszik figyelembe, pedig szükség van rá. Ugyanakkor másodfajú kudarcként kezeli az etika profitnövelést célzó használatát, mely megtéveszti az érintetteteket, így még szélesebb utat enged az opportunista üzleti tevékenységnek. Meglátása szerint a három rendszer egymást nemcsak kiegészíti, de kölcsönösen korrigálja is. Ez az elsőfajú kudarc esetében általánosabb, a másodfajú kudarc megoldásához azonban a gazdasági élet alapvetéseinek átfogalmazására, az önérdek és az egydimenziós teljesítményértékelés helyett egy új, holisztikusabb szemléletű közgazdaságra van szükség. _______ In the article the author identifies the errors of ethical responsibility. That is the third system to attain common good, but have similar failures like the other two: the hands of the market and the government. Using statistical analogy the author identifies Type I error when ethics are not considered but it should be (null hypothesis is rejected however it’s true). She treats the usage of ethics to extend profit as Type II error. This misleads the stakeholders and makes room for opportunistic behaviour in business (null hypothesis is accepted in turn it’s false). In her opinion the three systems: the hand of the market, the government and the ethical management not only amend but interdependently correct each other. In the case of Type I error it is more general. Nevertheless to solve the Type II error we have to redefine the core principles of business. We need a more holistic approach in economics instead of self-interest and one-dimensional interpretation of value.

Hungary and the eurozone crisis: a comedy of errors?

The spill-over of the global fi nancial crisis has uncovered the weaknesses in the governance of the EMU. As one of the most open economies in Europe, Hungary has suff ered from the ups and downs of the global and European crisis and its mismanagement. Domestic policy blunders have complicated the situation. This paper examines how Hungary has withstood the ups and downs of the eurozone crisis. It also addresses the questions of whether the country has converged with or diverged from the EMU membership, whether joining the EMU is still a good idea for Hungary, and whether the measures to ward off the crisis have actually helped to face the challenge of growth.

A method for enhancing digital information displayed to computer users with visual refractive errors via spatial and spectral processing

This research pursued the conceptualization, implementation, and verification of a system that enhances digital information displayed on an LCD panel to users with visual refractive errors. The target user groups for this system are individuals who have moderate to severe visual aberrations for which conventional means of compensation, such as glasses or contact lenses, does not improve their vision. This research is based on a priori knowledge of the user's visual aberration, as measured by a wavefront analyzer. With this information it is possible to generate images that, when displayed to this user, will counteract his/her visual aberration. The method described in this dissertation advances the development of techniques for providing such compensation by integrating spatial information in the image as a means to eliminate some of the shortcomings inherent in using display devices such as monitors or LCD panels. Additionally, physiological considerations are discussed and integrated into the method for providing said compensation. In order to provide a realistic sense of the performance of the methods described, they were tested by mathematical simulation in software, as well as by using a single-lens high resolution CCD camera that models an aberrated eye, and finally with human subjects having various forms of visual aberrations. Experiments were conducted on these systems and the data collected from these experiments was evaluated using statistical analysis. The experimental results revealed that the pre-compensation method resulted in a statistically significant improvement in vision for all of the systems. Although significant, the improvement was not as large as expected for the human subject tests. Further analysis suggest that even under the controlled conditions employed for testing with human subjects, the characterization of the eye may be changing. This would require real-time monitoring of relevant variables (e.g. pupil diameter) and continuous adjustment in the pre-compensation process to yield maximum viewing enhancement.

Ensemble fuzzy belief intrusion detection design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

Adsorption and desorption of phosphate on limestone in experiments simulating seawater intrusion

This study investigates the potential release of from carbonate aquifers exposed to seawater intrusion. Adsorption and desorption of in the presence of deionized water (DIW) and seawater were conducted on a large block of Pleistocene age limestone to simulate the effects of seawater intrusion into a coastal carbonate aquifer at the laboratory scale. The limestone showed strong adsorption of in DIW, while adsorption was significantly less in the presence of seawater. Dissolution of CaCO3 was found to prevent adsorption at salinities less than 30 psu. Adsorption of was limited at higher salinities (30–33 psu), due to competition with ions for adsorption sites. At a salinity3 precipitated. Concentrations of between 2 and 5 μmol/L were released by desorption when the limestone was exposed to seawater. The results of this study suggest that as seawater intrudes into an originally freshwater coastal aquifer, adsorbed may be released into the groundwater. Consequently, adsorbed is expected to be released from coastal carbonate aquifers world-wide as sea level continues to rise exposing more of the freshwater aquifer to seawater.

Test of a smock system on CPR primary emergency measures and medical errors during simulated emergencies

Rates of survival of victims of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) using cardio pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) have shown little improvement over the past three decades. Since registered nurses (RNs) comprise the largest group of healthcare providers in U.S. hospitals, it is essential that they are competent in performing the four primary measures (compression, ventilation, medication administration, and defibrillation) of CPR in order to improve survival rates of SCA patients. The purpose of this experimental study was to test a color-coded SMOCK system on: 1) time to implement emergency patient care measures 2) technical skills performance 3) number of medical errors, and 4) team performance during simulated CPR exercises. The study sample was 260 RNs (M 40 years, SD=11.6) with work experience as an RN (M 7.25 years, SD=9.42).Nurses were allocated to a control or intervention arm consisting of 20 groups of 5-8 RNs per arm for a total of 130 RNs in each arm. Nurses in each study arm were given clinical scenarios requiring emergency CPR. Nurses in the intervention group wore different color labeled aprons (smocks) indicating their role assignment (medications, ventilation, compression, defibrillation, etc) on the code team during CPR. Findings indicated that the intervention using color-labeled smocks for pre-assigned roles had a significant effect on the time nurses started compressions (t=3.03, p=0.005), ventilations (t=2.86, p=0.004) and defibrillations (t=2.00, p=.05) when compared to the controls using the standard of care. In performing technical skills, nurses in the intervention groups performed compressions and ventilations significantly better than those in the control groups. The control groups made significantly (t=-2.61, p=0.013) more total errors (7.55 SD 1.54) than the intervention group (5.60, SD 1.90). There were no significant differences in team performance measures between the groups. Study findings indicate use of colored labeled smocks during CPR emergencies resulted in: shorter times to start emergency CPR; reduced errors; more technical skills completed successfully; and no differences in team performance.

Development of test-based wind-driven rain intrusion model for hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage

Major portion of hurricane-induced economic loss originates from damages to building structures. The damages on building structures are typically grouped into three main categories: exterior, interior, and contents damage. Although the latter two types of damages, in most cases, cause more than 50% of the total loss, little has been done to investigate the physical damage process and unveil the interdependence of interior damage parameters. Building interior and contents damages are mainly due to wind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects, breaches, and other functional openings. The limitation of research works and subsequent knowledge gaps, are in most part due to the complexity of damage phenomena during hurricanes and lack of established measurement methodologies to quantify rainwater intrusion. This dissertation focuses on devising methodologies for large-scale experimental simulation of tropical cyclone WDR and measurements of rainwater intrusion to acquire benchmark test-based data for the development of hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage model. Target WDR parameters derived from tropical cyclone rainfall data were used to simulate the WDR characteristics at the Wall of Wind (WOW) facility. The proposed WDR simulation methodology presents detailed procedures for selection of type and number of nozzles formulated based on tropical cyclone WDR study. The simulated WDR was later used to experimentally investigate the mechanisms of rainwater deposition/intrusion in buildings. Test-based dataset of two rainwater intrusion parameters that quantify the distribution of direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater over building surface — rain admittance factor (RAF) and surface runoff coefficient (SRC), respectively —were developed using common shapes of low-rise buildings. The dataset was applied to a newly formulated WDR estimation model to predict the volume of rainwater ingress through envelope openings such as wall and roof deck breaches and window sill cracks. The validation of the new model using experimental data indicated reasonable estimation of rainwater ingress through envelope defects and breaches during tropical cyclones. The WDR estimation model and experimental dataset of WDR parameters developed in this dissertation work can be used to enhance the prediction capabilities of existing interior damage models such as the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM).^

Ensemble Fuzzy Belief Intrusion Detection Design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

A method for enhancing digital information displayed to computer users with visual refractive errors via spatial and spectral processing

This research pursued the conceptualization, implementation, and verification of a system that enhances digital information displayed on an LCD panel to users with visual refractive errors. The target user groups for this system are individuals who have moderate to severe visual aberrations for which conventional means of compensation, such as glasses or contact lenses, does not improve their vision. This research is based on a priori knowledge of the user's visual aberration, as measured by a wavefront analyzer. With this information it is possible to generate images that, when displayed to this user, will counteract his/her visual aberration. The method described in this dissertation advances the development of techniques for providing such compensation by integrating spatial information in the image as a means to eliminate some of the shortcomings inherent in using display devices such as monitors or LCD panels. Additionally, physiological considerations are discussed and integrated into the method for providing said compensation. In order to provide a realistic sense of the performance of the methods described, they were tested by mathematical simulation in software, as well as by using a single-lens high resolution CCD camera that models an aberrated eye, and finally with human subjects having various forms of visual aberrations. Experiments were conducted on these systems and the data collected from these experiments was evaluated using statistical analysis. The experimental results revealed that the pre-compensation method resulted in a statistically significant improvement in vision for all of the systems. Although significant, the improvement was not as large as expected for the human subject tests. Further analysis suggest that even under the controlled conditions employed for testing with human subjects, the characterization of the eye may be changing. This would require real-time monitoring of relevant variables (e.g. pupil diameter) and continuous adjustment in the pre-compensation process to yield maximum viewing enhancement.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Paragenesis, geochemistry and metallogeny of the Dublin Gulch intrusion-related Au deposit, Yukon Territory, Canada

This study concerns the Dublin Gulch intrusion-related gold system, Yukon Territory, Canada. Located 85 km, north northwest of the town of Mayo, YT, the property hosts a 3.3 M oz Au deposit associated with a mid-Cretaceous pluton. A detailed, 8 stage, hydrothermal paragenesis has been constructed for the deposit. At least two discrete fluids are responsible for sulfide mineralization at Dublin Gulch. The latter of the two hydrothermal fluids is responsible for the majority of Au endowment on the property. Geochemical signatures of mineralization support this finding, displaying distinct populations of arsenopyrite compositions and sulfur isotopes for each fluid. Lead isotopes from sulfosalts associated with the second fluid suggest hydrothermal scavenging from country rocks. Geochronology and petrogenetic studies show that a short lived intrusive event c. 93-94 Ma took place at Dublin Gulch and that the main Au mineralising fluid may be linked to a yet unseen intrusion at depth.

Far field of binary phase gratings with errors in the height of the strips

Diffraction gratings are not always ideal but, due to the fabrication process, several errors can be produced. In this work we show that when the strips of a binary phase diffraction grating present certain randomness in their height, the intensity of the diffraction orders varies with respect to that obtained with a perfect grating. To show this, we perform an analysis of the mutual coherence function and then, the intensity distribution at the far field is obtained. In addition to the far field diffraction orders, a "halo" that surrounds the diffraction order is found, which is due to the randomness of the strips height.

Error tolerance of topological codes with independent bit-flip and measurement errors

Topological quantum error correction codes are currently among the most promising candidates for efficiently dealing with the decoherence effects inherently present in quantum devices. Numerically, their theoretical error threshold can be calculated by mapping the underlying quantum problem to a related classical statistical-mechanical spin system with quenched disorder. Here, we present results for the general fault-tolerant regime, where we consider both qubit and measurement errors. However, unlike in previous studies, here we vary the strength of the different error sources independently. Our results highlight peculiar differences between toric and color codes. This study complements previous results published in New J. Phys. 13, 083006 (2011).

Optimizing the Correction of Memory Errors

People are always at risk of making errors when they attempt to retrieve information from memory. An important question is how to create the optimal learning conditions so that, over time, the correct information is learned and the number of mistakes declines. Feedback is a powerful tool, both for reinforcing new learning and correcting memory errors. In 5 experiments, I sought to understand the best procedures for administering feedback during learning. First, I evaluated the popular recommendation that feedback is most effective when given immediately, and I showed that this recommendation does not always hold when correcting errors made with educational materials in the classroom. Second, I asked whether immediate feedback is more effective in a particular case—when correcting false memories, or strongly-held errors that may be difficult to notice even when the learner is confronted with the feedback message. Third, I examined whether varying levels of learner motivation might help to explain cross-experimental variability in feedback timing effects: Are unmotivated learners less likely to benefit from corrective feedback, especially when it is administered at a delay? Overall, the results revealed that there is no best “one-size-fits-all” recommendation for administering feedback; the optimal procedure depends on various characteristics of learners and their errors. As a package, the data are consistent with the spacing hypothesis of feedback timing, although this theoretical account does not successfully explain all of the data in the larger literature.