Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Biopsy diagnosis of intraductal carcinoma is prognostic in intermediate and high risk prostate cancer patients treated by radiotherapy.

AIM: We investigated the prognostic significance of intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P) in biopsies and transurethral resections prior to external beam radiotherapy with or without androgen deprivation. METHODS: Cohort 1 consisted of 118 intermediate risk prostate cancer patients treated by radiotherapy, with biochemical relapse as primary end-point (median follow-up 6.5 years). Cohort 2 consisted of 132 high risk patients, enrolled in a phase III randomised trial (EORTC 22863) comparing radiotherapy alone to radiotherapy with long-term androgen deprivation (LTAD) with clinical progression free survival as primary end-point (median follow-up 9.1 years). Presence of IDC-P was identified after central review. Multivariable regression modelling and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed with IDC-P as dichotomous variable. RESULTS: IDC-P was a strong prognosticator for early (<36 months) biochemical relapse (HR 7.3; p = 0.007) in cohort 1 and for clinical disease-free survival in both arms of cohort 2 (radiotherapy arm: HR 3.5; p < 0.0001; radiotherapy plus LTAD arm: HR 2.8, p = 0.018). IDC-P retained significance after stratification for reviewed Gleason score in the radiotherapy arm (HR 2.3; p = 0.03). IDC-P was a strong prognosticator for metastatic failure rate (radiotherapy arm: HR 5.3; p < 0.0001; radiotherapy plus LTAD arm: HR 3.6; p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: IDC-P in diagnostic samples of patients with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer is an independent prognosticator of early biochemical relapse and metastatic failure rate after radiotherapy. We suggest that the presence of IDC-P in prostate biopsies should routinely be reported.

Gender and the professional career of primary care physicians in Andalusia (Spain).

Background: Although the proportion of women in medicine is growing, female physicians continue to be disadvantaged in professional activities. The purpose of the study was to determine and compare the professional activities of female and male primary care physicians in Andalusia and to assess the effect of the health center on the performance of these activities. Methods: Descriptive, cross-sectional, and multicenter study. Setting: Spain. Participants: Population: urban health centers and their physicians. Sample: 88 health centers and 500 physicians. Independent variable: gender. Measurements: Control variables: age, postgraduate family medicine specialty (FMS), patient quota, patients/day, hours/day housework from Monday to Friday, idem weekend, people at home with special care, and family situation. Dependent variables: 24 professional activities in management, teaching, research, and the scientific community. Self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive, bivariate, and multilevel logistic regression analyses. Results: Response: 73.6%. Female physicians: 50.8%. Age: female physicians, 49.1 ± 4.3 yrs; male physicians, 51.3 ± 4.9 yrs (p < 0.001). Female physicians with FMS: 44.2%, male physicians with FMS: 33.3% (p < 0.001). Female physicians dedicated more hours to housework and more frequently lived alone versus male physicians. There were no differences in healthcare variables. Thirteen of the studied activities were less frequently performed by female physicians, indicating their lesser visibility in the production and diffusion of scientific knowledge. Performance of the majority of professional activities was independent of the health center in which the physician worked. Conclusions: There are gender inequities in the development of professional activities in urban health centers in Andalusia, even after controlling for family responsibilities, work load, and the effect of the health center, which was important in only a few of the activities under study.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Diarrea crónica refractaria y malabsorción secundaria a hipogammaglobulinemia común variable, infestación crónica por giardia lambila y gastrectomía total por adenocarcinoma gástrico: un manejo nutricional complejo

Gastric cancer is a frequent cause of cancer-related mortality in the world. Surgery is the only potentially curative therapy, although the adverse effects of surgery are common and considerable. Common variable immunodeficiency is in many cases cause of gastrointestinal system problems such as chronic diarrhea caused by infestation with giardia lamblia, nodular lymphoid hiperplasia ad loss of villi leading frequently to malapsortion and malnutrition. Nutritional deficiencies due to malapsorption (postgastrectomy and secondary to loss of villi, giardiasis and common variable inmunodeficiency) are common. We present the case of a patient with gastric cancer who underwent a gastrectomy with common variable hipogammaglobulinemia and chronic infestation by giardia lamblia, with serious diarrhea resistant to treatment and malabsorption.

Robust regression in biological assay: application to the evaluation of alternative experimental techniques.

Robust Huber type regression and testing of linear hypotheses are adapted to statistical analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays. They are applied in the evaluation of results of several experiments carried out in order to compare and validate alternatives to animal experimentation based on embryo and cell cultures. Computational procedures necessary for the application of robust methods of analysis used the conversational statistical package ROBSYS. Special commands for the analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays have been added to ROBSYS.

Adiponectin and C-reactive protein are positively associated with microalbuminuria in an adult Caucasian population

Objective: Microalbuminuria (MAU) is a marker of early kidney injury and cardiovascular risk. We assessed the association of MAU with plasma adiponectin, leptin and hsCRP, as inflammatory markers, accounting for hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Design and methods: Population based, cross-sectional study in Caucasian subjects aged 35 to 75 years in Lausanne, Switzerland. MAU, measured on spot morning urine, was used either as a continuous (MAU) or dichotomized variable (MA defined as MAU >2.5 and >3.5 mg/mmol creatinine in men and women, respectively). Results: The 2955 women (age 53.3 ± 10.7, mean ± SD years) had mean body mass index (BMI) 24.9 ± 4.5 kg/m. The 2479 men (age 53.1 ± 10.8 years) had mean BMI 27.0 ± 3.9 kg/m². Median hsCRP was 1.3 and 1.3 mg/L, median adiponectin 6.2 and 10.6 mg/mL in men and women, respectively. MA prevalence was 4.9% in women and 9.8% in men. In multivariate regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, eGFR, BMI, percent fat mass, insulin and smoking), log-transformed MAU was positively associated with hsCRP (P <0.001) and adiponectin (P = 0.002), but not with leptin. The association of adiponectin with MAU was stronger in subjects with low hsCRP, and vice versa (P interaction <0.001). Conclusion: Adiponectin and hsCRP are significant positive determinants of MAU, independently of diabetes, hypertension and fat mass. A negative interaction between hsCRP and adiponectin was found for their effect on MAU. Whether hyperadiponectinemia represents an adequate protective response to vascular stress or has negative causal impact on the development of MAU should be assessed in further studies.

Frecuencia de la cesárea en Andalucía: relación con factores sociales, clínicos y de los servicios sanitarios (2007-2009).

BACKGROUND Increasing trend and geographical variations in the use of caesarean section suggest the influence of non-clinical factors. The objective was to describe the use of caesarean section in the Andalusian region in Spain by exploring the role of social, clinical, and health services variables. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out using vital statistics. It involves all births occurred in Andalusia during the period of 2007-2009. The dependent variable was the use of caesarean section and the set of covariates were classified into three groups: those with a clinical meaning, those related to the health services organization, and those with a social significance. Multivariate logistic regressions were used. RESULTS In the data set of 293,558 births, the prevalence of caesarean delivery was 24.8%. The multivariate analysis highlights the labour complications as the clinical variable with the highest odds ratio (OR=19.36). Regarding the health services variables, the odds of experiencing a caesarean delivery were 55% higher on weekdays than on weekends. Cádiz was the province with the highest OR for caesarean section (comparison between Cádiz and Almería: OR=1,21) where the ratio between births in public and private hospitals was 3.7. The frequency of caesarean section was 34% higher in women with third level education than those with no education. CONCLUSIONS Labour complication is the most influential variable for caesarean section. Caesarean birth rate is above the accepted standards for all social classes and increases with educational level. Inter-provincial differences reflect different patterns with regard to the use of private medicine.

Body mass index, abdominal adiposity and blood pressure: consistency of their association across developing and developed countries.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing worldwide because developing countries are adopting Western high-fat foods and sedentary lifestyles. In parallel, in many of them, hypertension is rising more rapidly, particularly with age, than in Western countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between adiposity and blood pressure (BP) in a developing country with high average BP (The Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin) in comparison to a developed country with low average BP (Switzerland, population mainly of Caucasian origin). DESIGN: Cross-sectional health examination surveys based on population random samples. SETTING: The main Seychelles island (Mahé) and two Swiss regions (Vaud-Fribourg and Ticino). SUBJECTS: Three thousand one hundred and sixteen adults (age range 35-64) untreated for hypertension. MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, mean of two measures). METHODS: Scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: On average, SBP and DBP were found to increase linearly over the whole variation range of BMI, WHR and WC. A modest, but statistically significant linear association was found between each indicator of adiposity and BP levels in separate regression models controlling for age. The regression coefficients were not significantly different between the Seychelles and the two Swiss regions, but were generally higher in women than in men. For the latter, a gain of 1.7 kg/m(2) in BMI, of 4.5 cm in WC or of 3.4% in WHR corresponded to an elevation of 1 mmHg in SBP. For women, corresponding figures were 1.25 kg/m(2), 2.5 cm and 1.8% respectively. Regression coefficients for age reflected a higher effect of this variable on both SBP and DBP in the Seychelles than in Switzerland. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a stable linear relation of adiposity with BP, independent of age and body fat distribution, across developed and developing countries. The more rapid increase of BP with age observed in the latter countries are likely to reflect higher genetic susceptibility and/or higher cumulative exposure to another risk factor than adiposity.

Prospective universal application of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat genotyping to characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates for fast identification of clustered and orphan cases.

The use of molecular tools for genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in epidemiological surveys in order to identify clustered and orphan strains requires faster response times than those offered by the reference method, IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) genotyping. A method based on PCR, the mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping technique, is an option for fast fingerprinting of M. tuberculosis, although precise evaluations of correlation between MIRU-VNTR and RFLP findings in population-based studies in different contexts are required before the methods are switched. In this study, we evaluated MIRU-VNTR genotyping (with a set of 15 loci [MIRU-15]) in parallel to RFLP genotyping in a 39-month universal population-based study in a challenging setting with a high proportion of immigrants. For 81.9% (281/343) of the M. tuberculosis isolates, both RFLP and MIRU-VNTR types were obtained. The percentages of clustered cases were 39.9% (112/281) and 43.1% (121/281) for RFLP and MIRU-15 analyses, and the numbers of clusters identified were 42 and 45, respectively. For 85.4% of the cases, the RFLP and MIRU-15 results were concordant, identifying the same cases as clustered and orphan (kappa, 0.7). However, for the remaining 14.6% of the cases, discrepancies were observed: 16 of the cases clustered by RFLP analysis were identified as orphan by MIRU-15 analysis, and 25 cases identified as orphan by RFLP analysis were clustered by MIRU-15 analysis. When discrepant cases showing subtle genotypic differences were tolerated, the discrepancies fell from 14.6% to 8.6%. Epidemiological links were found for 83.8% of the cases clustered by both RFLP and MIRU-15 analyses, whereas for the cases clustered by RFLP or MIRU-VNTR analysis alone, links were identified for only 30.8% or 38.9% of the cases, respectively. The latter group of cases mainly comprised isolates that could also have been clustered, if subtle genotypic differences had been tolerated. MIRU-15 genotyping seems to be a good alternative to RFLP genotyping for real-time interventional schemes. The correlation between MIRU-15 and IS6110 RFLP findings was reasonable, although some uncertainties as to the assignation of clusters by MIRU-15 analysis were identified.

A geoprocessing approach for studying and controlling schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that have been recently tested for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of disease. The objective of this paper was to further develop the GIS technology to model and control schistosomiasis using environmental, social, biological and remote-sensing variables. A final regression model (R² = 0.39) was established, after a variable selection phase, with a set of spatial variables including the presence or absence of Biomphalaria glabrata, winter enhanced vegetation index, summer minimum temperature and percentage of houses with water coming from a spring or well. A regional model was also developed by splitting the state of Minas Gerais (MG) into four regions and establishing a linear regression model for each of the four regions: 1 (R² = 0.97), 2 (R² = 0.60), 3 (R² = 0.63) and 4 (R² = 0.76). Based on these models, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for MG. In this paper, geostatistics was also used to make inferences about the presence of Biomphalaria spp. The result was a map of species and risk areas. The obtained risk map permits the association of uncertainties, which can be used to qualify the inferences and it can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies.

Changes in health related quality of life 3 months after an acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND The aim of the study was to identify the changes in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) 3 months after discharge from hospital, in patients who have had an acute coronary episode, and to determine the clinical and sociodemographic variables that explain those changes. METHODS HRQL was assessed in 132 patients while they were admitted to the hospital and at 3 months after discharge, using the SF-36 health questionnaire. To identify the variables associated with the change, multiple linear regression models were constructed for two summary dimensions of the SF-36 (PCS and MCS) taking the change in the score of the dimension as dependent variable. RESULTS There were no significant differences between the patients who completed the monitoring (n = 76) and those who were dropped out. After three months, a significant decrease was observed in the dimensions of physical functioning, general health, vitality, and Physical Summary Component (PCS). The variables revascularisation, age, and the interaction between previous history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and the presence of one or more risk factors explained 16.6% of the decrease in the PCS. The decrease in the PCS was 6.4 points less in the patients who had undergone revascularisation, 0.2 points less for each year of age, and 4.7 points less in the patients who had antecedents of the illness as well as one or more risk factors. CONCLUSION The dimensions most affected at three months after an acute coronary episode were those related to the physical component. Undergoing revascularisation improved the PCS in patients, but in the younger patients and those without personal antecedents or risk factors, the PCS was affected more, perhaps due to greater expectations for recovery in these patients.

Additive effects of LPL, APOA5 and APOE variant combinations on triglyceride levels and hypertriglyceridemia: results of the ICARIA genetic sub-study.

BACKGROUND Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) is a well-established independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and the influence of several genetic variants in genes related with triglyceride (TG) metabolism has been described, including LPL, APOA5 and APOE. The combined analysis of these polymorphisms could produce clinically meaningful complementary information. METHODS A subgroup of the ICARIA study comprising 1825 Spanish subjects (80% men, mean age 36 years) was genotyped for the LPL-HindIII (rs320), S447X (rs328), D9N (rs1801177) and N291S (rs268) polymorphisms, the APOA5-S19W (rs3135506) and -1131T/C (rs662799) variants, and the APOE polymorphism (rs429358; rs7412) using PCR and restriction analysis and TaqMan assays. We used regression analyses to examine their combined effects on TG levels (with the log-transformed variable) and the association of variant combinations with TG levels and hypertriglyceridemia (TG > or = 1.69 mmol/L), including the covariates: gender, age, waist circumference, blood glucose, blood pressure, smoking and alcohol consumption. RESULTS We found a significant lowering effect of the LPL-HindIII and S447X polymorphisms (p < 0.0001). In addition, the D9N, N291S, S19W and -1131T/C variants and the APOE-epsilon4 allele were significantly associated with an independent additive TG-raising effect (p < 0.05, p < 0.01, p < 0.001, p < 0.0001 and p < 0.001, respectively). Grouping individuals according to the presence of TG-lowering or TG-raising polymorphisms showed significant differences in TG levels (p < 0.0001), with the lowest levels exhibited by carriers of two lowering variants (10.2% reduction in TG geometric mean with respect to individuals who were homozygous for the frequent alleles of all the variants), and the highest levels in carriers of raising combinations (25.1% mean TG increase). Thus, carrying two lowering variants was protective against HTG (OR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.39-0.98; p = 0.042) and having one single raising polymorphism (OR = 1.20; 95% CI, 1.39-2.87; p < 0.001) or more (2 or 3 raising variants; OR = 2.90; 95% CI, 1.56-5.41; p < 0.001) were associated with HTG. CONCLUSION Our results showed a significant independent additive effect on TG levels of the LPL polymorphisms HindIII, S447X, D9N and N291S; the S19W and -1131T/C variants of APOA5, and the epsilon4 allele of APOE in our study population. Moreover, some of the variant combinations studied were significantly associated with the absence or the presence of hypertriglyceridemia.

Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.