New indicators of star cluster dynamical evolution

This thesis presents a study of globular clusters (GCs), based on analysis of Monte Carlo simulations of globular clusters (GCs) with the aim to define new empirical parameters measurable from observations and able to trace the different phases of their dynamical evolution history. During their long term dynamical evolution, due to mass segregation and and dynamical friction, massive stars transfer kinetic energy to lower-mass objects, causing them to sink toward the cluster center. This continuous transfer of kinetic energy from the core to the outskirts triggers the runaway contraction of the core, known as "core collapse" (CC), followed by episodes of expansion and contraction called gravothermal oscillations. Clearly, such an internal dynamical evolution corresponds to significant variations also of the structure of the system. Determining the dynamical age of a cluster can be challenging as it depends on various internal and external properties. The traditional classification of GCs as CC or post-CC systems relies on detecting a steep power-law cusp in the central density profile, which may not always be reliable due to post-CC oscillations or other processes. In this thesis, based on the normalized cumulative radial distribution (nCRD) within a fraction of the half-mass radius is analyzed, and three diagnostics (A5, P5, and S2.5) are defined. These diagnostics show sensitivity to dynamical evolution and can distinguish pre-CC clusters from post-CC clusters.The analysis performed using multiple simulations with different initial conditions, including varying binary fractions and the presence of dark remnants showed the time variations of the diagnostics follow distinct patterns depending on the binary fraction and the retention or ejection of black holes. This analysis is extended to a larger set of simulations matching the observed properties of Galactic GCs, and the parameters show a potential to distinguish the dynamical stages of the observed clusters as well.

New assessments of global sea level rise from tide gauges

Estimates of global sea-level change rates based on observations from Tide Gauges (TGs) show a long-term global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) of 1÷2 mm/yr for the 20th century. The considerable scatter in these estimates is mainly attributable to the uneven distribution of the TG sites and to several physical phenomena that cause local sea level to deviate from the global mean, or to affect the TG record through land subsidence or uplift. The main cause of vertical ground motion on a regional space scale is the response of the Earth to past ice loads, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), which is often modelled and corrected for. In this work, a simple average approach was used to revisit two past estimates based on small sets of long, high-quality TG records in view of the longer record available, employing a newer GIA model (ICE-6G) from Peltier et al. [2015]. The value of GMSLR obtained from both sets is (1.5±0.4) mm/yr. In addition, a much larger set of TGs was used to estimate the contemporary (post 1993) GMSLR using satellite estimates from Cazenave et al. [2018] as a benchmark, in an attempt to understand how a simple average approach could perform for larger sets. The resulting estimate of (3.4÷3.5)±0.2 mm/yr (depending on the GIA correction applied) is comparable to the satellite result of (3.1±0.3) mm/yr.

Indicators for the characterization of discrete Choquet integrals

Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators and their extensions are powerful tools used in numerous decision-making problems. This class of operator belongs to a more general family of aggregation operators, understood as discrete Choquet integrals. Aggregation operators are usually characterized by indicators. In this article four indicators usually associated with the OWA operator are extended to discrete Choquet integrals: namely, the degree of balance, the divergence, the variance indicator and Renyi entropies. All of these indicators are considered from a local and a global perspective. Linearity of indicators for linear combinations of capacities is investigated and, to illustrate the application of results, indicators of the probabilistic ordered weighted averaging -POWA- operator are derived. Finally, an example is provided to show the application to a specific context.

Convergence and divergence in global economy and social development : global perspectives on the contents of economic and soical development policy and its effects on rich and poor countries

The study of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilises comparative indicators to investigate the contents of economic and social development policy and their effects on the global samples that represent the rich industrial, semi-industrial and the poor developing nations. The study searchesfor answers to questions such as "what are the objectives of economic growth policies in globalisation under the imperatives of convergence and divergence, and how do these affect human well-being in consideration to the objectives of social policy in various nations?" The empirical verification of data utilises the concepts of the `logic of industrialism´ for comparative analysis that focuses mainly on identifying the levels of well-being in world nations after the Second World War. The perspectives of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development critically examine the stages of early development processes in global economy, distinguish the differences between economy and social development, illustrate the contents of economic and social development policies, their effects on rich and poor countries, and the nature of convergence and divergence in propelling economic growth and unequal social development in world nations. The measurement of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilised both economic and social data that were combined into an index that measures the precise levels of the effects of economic and social development policies on human well-being in the rich and poor nations. The task of finding policy solutions to resolve the controversies are reviewed through empirical investigations and the analyses of trends indicated within economic and social indicators and data. These revealed how the adoption of social policy measures in translating the gains from economic growth, towards promoting education, public health, and equity, generate social progress and longer life expectancy, higher economic growth, and sustain more stable macro economy for the nations. Social policy is concerned with the translation of benefits from objectives of global economic growth policies, to objectives of social development policy in nation states. Social policy, therefore, represents an open door whereby benefits of economic growth policies are linked with the broader objectives of social development policy, thereby enhancing the possibility of extending benefits from economic growth to all human being in every nation.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

International office investment in global cities: the production of financial space and systemic risk

The paper explores the relationships between UK commercial real estate and regional economic development as a foundation for the analysis of the role of real estate investment in local economic development. Linkages between economic growth, development, real estate performance and investment allocations are documented. Long-run regional property performance is not the product of long-run economic growth, and weakly related to indicators of long-run supply and demand. Changes in regional portfolio weights seem driven by neither market performance nor underlying fundamentals. In the short run, regional investment shifts show no clear leads or lags with market performance.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Social cohesion in Latin America: concepts, frames of reference and Indicators

Includes bibliography

A Global Analysis of of Imperfect Competition in the Banking Systems and the Latest Israeli Regulation Dealing with Market Failures. ACES Working Paper No. 3, 2007

The high concentration of the banking sector is a cross-border phenomenon that has high impact on local and global economies. This paper's main goal is to analyze the factors that impact concentration in the banking systems around the globe. The innovation of this paper is that we combined economic, "economic environment", and culture variables as explanatory variables for this analysis. We found among other things that regulation in the banking system is helpful in order to keep it competitive. We also found that when the society has more individual values rather than collective ones, its banking sector is less concentrated. In the second part of the paper we focused on the Israeli case, showing that although recent indicators of the Israeli banking system indicate a higher level of concentration and lower level of competition, it seems that the recent trend is moving toward less concentration and higher competition.

Global database of surface ocean particulate organic carbon export fluxes diagnosed from the 234Th technique

Through the processes of the biological pump, carbon is exported to the deep ocean in the form of dissolved and particulate organic matter. There are several ways by which downward export fluxes can be estimated. The great attraction of the 234Th technique is that its fundamental operation allows a downward flux rate to be determined from a single water column profile of thorium coupled to an estimate of POC/234Th ratio in sinking matter. We present a database of 723 estimates of organic carbon export from the surface ocean derived from the 234Th technique. Data were collected from tables in papers published between 1985 and 2013 only. We also present sampling dates, publication dates and sampling areas. Most of the open ocean Longhurst provinces are represented by several measurements. However, the Western Pacific, the Atlantic Arctic, South Pacific and the South Indian Ocean are not well represented. There is a variety of integration depths ranging from surface to 220m. Globally the fluxes ranged from -22 to 125 mmol of C/m**2/d. We believe that this database is important for providing new global estimate of the magnitude of the biological carbon pump.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.