The impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcome of Bayesian spatial model

Discretization of a geographical region is quite common in spatial analysis. There have been few studies into the impact of different geographical scales on the outcome of spatial models for different spatial patterns. This study aims to investigate the impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcomes of modelling spatial point-based data. Given a spatial point-based dataset (such as occurrence of a disease), we study the geographical variation of residual disease risk using regular grid cells. The individual disease risk is modelled using a logistic model with the inclusion of spatially unstructured and/or spatially structured random effects. Three spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modelling, namely an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, a second-order random walk on a lattice, and a Gaussian field with Matern correlation function. We investigate how changes in grid cell size affect model outcomes under different spatial structures and different smoothness priors for the spatial component. A realistic example (the Humberside data) is analyzed and a simulation study is described. Bayesian computation is carried out using an integrated nested Laplace approximation. The results suggest that the performance and predictive capacity of the spatial models improve as the grid cell size decreases for certain spatial structures. It also appears that different spatial smoothness priors should be applied for different patterns of point data.

Evaluating the impact of high risk foot training on undergraduate podiatry students

Background Diabetes is the leading cause of high risk foot (HRF) complications, admissions and lower limb amputation. Best practice training of podiatrists is known to have a beneficial impact on such outcomes; however, there has been a paucity of studies into undergraduate diabetes podiatry training. The primary aim of this paper was to investigate the changes in final year podiatry students’ confidence, knowledge and clinical practice in the management of HRF complications. Methods This was a prospective longitudinal study of final year podiatry students (n=25) at the Queensland University of Technology. All participants throughout 2011 undertook an intervention of a series of “hands on” HRF workshops, on-campus clinics and external clinical rotations. Outcome measures included customised confidence and knowledge surveys in HRF management across four time points. A timed simulated case scenario was used to evaluate changes in clinical practice at two time points. Friedman and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Tests were used to calculate differences between time points Results Overall improvements between the first and last time points were demonstrated in 20/21 confidence items (p<0.001), 12/27 clinical practice items (p<0.05) and 3/12 knowledge items (p<0.001). Although 8/12 knowledge items recorded high baseline scores of over 80%. Conclusions Overall, it appears student confidence and clinical practice improved with the introduction of designated HRF activities, whilst knowledge remained high. This suggests “hands on” practice and not didactic lectures improve students’ clinical confidence and practice. Results from the 2012 student cohort will also be presented at this conference.

A longitudinal study of the impact of chronic psychological stress on health-related quality of life and clinical biomarkers : protocol for the Australian Healthy Aging of Women Study

BACKGROUND: Despite advancements in our understanding of the importance of stress reduction in achieving good health, we still only have limited insight into the impact of stress on cellular function. Recent studies have suggested that exposure to prolonged psychological stress may alter an individual's physiological responses, and contribute to morbidity and mortality. This paper presents an overview of the study protocol we are using to examine the impact of life stressors on lifestyle factors, health-related quality of life and novel and established biomarkers of stress in midlife and older Australian women.The primary aim of this study is to explore the links between chronic psychological stress on both subjective and objective health markers in midlife and older Australian women. The study examines the extent to which exposure frightening, upsetting or stressful events such as natural disasters, illness or death of a relative, miscarriage and relationship conflict is correlated with a variety of objective and subjective health markers.Methods/design: This study is embedded within the longitudinal Healthy Aging of Women's study which has collected data from midlife and older Australian women at 5 yearly intervals since 2001, and uses the Allostastic model of women's health by Groer and colleagues in 2010. The current study expands the focus of the HOW study and will assess the impact of life stressors on quality of life and clinical biomarkers in midlife and older Australian women to explain the impact of chronic psychological stress in women. DISCUSSION: The proposed study hypothesizes that women are at increased risk of exposure to multiple or repeated stressors, some being unique to women, and the frequency and chronicity of stressors increases women's risk of adverse health outcomes. This study aims to further our understanding of the relationships between stressful life experiences, perceived quality of life, stress biomarkers, chronic illness, and health status in women.

Biological values of acupuncture and Chinese herbal medicine : impact on the life science

Editorial paper

Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.

Fraud and its PREY : conceptualising social engineering tactics and its impact on financial literacy outcomes

Financial literacy may not be as effective as previously thought in protecting against fraud victimisation. It does not inoculate investors from persuasion or social engineering tactics used by offenders to secure investment in fraudulent schemes. In fact, recent research indicates that overconfidence in investment knowledge may make individuals more susceptible to fraud. Using boiler room fraud as a case study, this article introduces the PREY (Profiled, Relational, Exploitable and Yielding) model to capture the psychological tactics used by fraud perpetrators to influence the thoughts and decision-making processes of individuals. The PREY model operationalizes the tenets of social engineering and demonstrates how such tactics could be re-engineered to increase the effectiveness of fraud prevention within the financial literacy context.

Impact of high PV penetration on distribution transformer insulation life

The reliable operation of distribution systems is critically dependent on detailed understanding of load impacts on distribution transformer insulation systems. This paper estimates the impact of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation on a typical 200-kVA, 22/0.415-kV distribution transformer life under different operating conditions. This transformer supplies a suburban area with a high penetration of roof top photovoltaic systems. The transformer loads and the phase distribution of the PV systems are significantly unbalanced. Oil and hot-spot temperature and remnant life of distribution transformer under different PV and balance scenarios are calculated. It is shown that PV can significantly extend the transformer life.

A Literature Review of Wellness, Wellbeing and Quality of Life Issues as they impact upon the Australian Mining Sector

Australia’s mining boom Global demand for minerals and energy products has fuelled Australia’s recent resources boom and has led to the rapid expansion of mining projects not only in remote locations but increasingly in settled traditionally agricultural rural areas. A fundamental shift has also occurred in the provisioning of skilled and semi-skilled workers. The huge acceleration in industry demand for labour has been accompanied by the entrenchment of workforce arrangements largely dependent on fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) and drive–in, drive–out (DIDO) non-resident workers (NRWs). While NRWs are working away from their homes, they are usually accommodated in work camps or ‘villages’ for the duration of their work cycle which are normally comprised of many consecutive days of 12-hour day- and night-shifts. The health effects of this form of employment and the accompanying lifestyle is increasingly becoming contentious. Impacts on personal wellness, wellbeing and quality of life essentially remain under-researched and thus misunderstood. Sodexo in Australia Sodexo began operations in Australia in 1982, and has since become a leader in providing Quality of Life (QOL) services to businesses across the country. The 6,000 Australian employees are part of a global Sodexo team of 413,000 people. Sodexo in Australia designs, delivers and manages on-site their QOL services at 320 diverse site locations, including remote sites. Sodexo operates in a range of sectors, including the mining industry. Service plans are tailored to suit the individual needs of organisations. Sodexo Remote Sites has previously conducted unpublished research among mining workers in Australia. The results highlighted needs and expectations of Australian mining workers. Main insights about workers’ requirements were directed towards: • contacts with closest; • warm rest time around proper and varied meals; • additional services to help them better enjoy their life onsite and/or make the most of it; • organise their transportation; • promote community living; and • finding balance between professional and personal life. The brief for this current research is aimed at building upon this knowledge. Research brief Expectations for quality of life and wellness and wellbeing services are increasing dramatically. It's getting costlier and more difficult to retain valuable employees. This is particularly the case in the Australian mining sector. Given the level of interest in ensuring healthy workplaces in Australia, Sodexo has commissioned QUT to conduct a literature review. The objectives as specified by Sodexo are: Objective 1: To define the concepts of wellness and wellbeing and quality of life in Australia Objective 2: To examine how wellness and wellbeing are developed within organisations in Australia and how they impact on employee and organizational performance. More specifically, to review the literature that could be sourced about: • challenges of the mining environment; • the mining lifestyle – implications for health, wellness and daily life; • personal health and wellness of Australian mining workers; • factors affecting health in mines and perceived support for health and wellness; and • the impact of employer investment in health on perceptions and behaviour of employees. Objective 3: To determine what impact employee wellness and well-being has on the performance of mining workers. More specifically, to review the literature that could be sourced about: • impact of obesity, alcohol, tobacco use on companies; and • links between employee engagement and satisfaction and company productivity. Accordingly this review has attempted to ascertain what factors an organisation should focus on in order to reduce absenteeism and turnover and increase commitment, satisfaction, safety and productivity, with specific reference to the mining industry in Australia. The structure of the report aligns with the stated objectives in that each of the first three parts address an objective. Part IV summarises prominent issues that have arisen and offers some concluding observations and comments.

The impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives Heatwaves can have significant health consequences resulting in increased mortality and morbidity. However, their impact on people living in tropical/subtropical regions remains largely unknown. This study assessed the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes (NEC) in Brisbane, a subtropical city in Australia. Methods We acquired daily data on weather, air pollution and EHAs for patients aged 15 years and over in Brisbane between January 1996 and December 2005, and on mortality between January 1996 and November 2004. A locally derived definition of heatwave (daily maximum ≥37°C for 2 or more consecutive days) was adopted. Case–crossover analyses were used to assess the impact of heatwaves on cause-specific mortality and EHAs. Results During heatwaves, there was a statistically significant increase in NEC mortality (OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.77), cardiovascular mortality (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.48), diabetes mortality in those aged 75+ (OR 9.96; 95% CI 1.02 to 96.85), NEC EHAs (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.23) and EHAs from renal diseases (OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.83). The elderly were found to be particularly vulnerable to heatwaves (eg, for NEC EHAs, OR 1.24 for 65–74-year-olds and 1.39 for those aged 75+). Conclusions Significant increases in NEC mortality and EHAs were observed during heatwaves in Brisbane where people are well accustomed to hot summer weather. The most vulnerable were the elderly and people with cardiovascular, renal or diabetic disease.

Methodologies for measuring research impact for a new interdisciplinary institute

Interdisciplinary research is often funded by national government initiatives or large corporate sponsorship, and as such, demands periodic reporting on the use of those funds. For reasons of accountability, governance and communication to the tax payer, knowledge of the outcomes of the research need to be measured and understood. The interdisciplinary approach to research raises many challenges for impact reporting. This presentation will consider what are the best practice workflow models and methodologies.Novel methodologies that can be added to the usual metrics of academic publications include analysis of percentage share of total publications in a subject or keyword field, calculating most cited publication in a key phrase category, analysis of who has cited or reviewed the work, and benchmarking of this data against others in that same category. At QUT, interest in how collaborative networking is trending in a research theme has led to the creation of some useful co-authorship graphs that demonstrate the network positions of authors and the strength of their scientific collaborations within a group. The scale of international collaborations is also worth including in the assessment. However, despite all of the tools and techniques available, the most useful way a researcher can help themselves and the process is to set up and maintain their researcher identifier and profile.

Bike share's impact on car use : evidence from the United States, Great Britain, and Australia

There are currently more than 400 cities operating bike share programs. Purported benefits of bike share programs include flexible mobility, physical activity, reduced congestion, emissions and fuel use. Implicit or explicit in the calculation of program benefits are assumptions regarding the modes of travel replaced by bike share journeys. This paper examines the degree to which car trips are replaced by bike share, through an examination of survey and trip data from bike share programs in Melbourne, Brisbane, Washing, D.C., London, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. A secondary and unique component of this analysis examines motor vehicle support services required for bike share fleet rebalancing and maintenance. These two components are then combined to estimate bike share’s overall contribution to changes in vehicle kilometres traveled. The results indicate that the estimated mean reduction in car use due to bike share is at least twice the distance covered by operator support vehicles, with the exception of London, in which the relationship is reversed, largely due to a low car mode substitution rate. As bike share programs mature, evaluation of their effectiveness in reducing car use may become increasingly important. This paper reveals that by increasing the convenience of bike share relative to car use and by improving perceptions of safety, the capacity of bike share programs to reduce vehicle trips and yield overall net benefits will be enhanced. Researchers can adapt the analytical approach proposed in this paper to assist in the evaluation of current and future bike share programs.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

The impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy on survival in patients with a history of breast cancer – a population-based data linkage study

Prophylactic surgery including hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is recommended in BRCA positive women, while in women from the general population, hysterectomy plus BSO may increase the risk of overall mortality. The effect of hysterectomy plus BSO on women previously diagnosed with breast cancer is unknown. We used data from a population-base data linkage study of all women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2008 (n=21,067). We fitted flexible parametric breast cancer specific and overall survival models with 95% confidence intervals (also known as Royston-Parmar models) to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery (removal of uterus, one or both ovaries). We also stratified analyses by age 20-49 and 50-79 years, respectively. Overall, 1,426 women (7%) underwent risk-reducing surgery (13% of premenopausal women and 3% of postmenopausal women). No women who had risk-reducing surgery, compared to 171 who did not have risk-reducing surgery developed a gynaecological cancer. Overall, 3,165 (15%) women died, including 2,195 (10%) from breast cancer. Hysterectomy plus BSO was associated with significantly reduced risk of death overall (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89; P =0.005). Risk reduction was greater among premenopausal women, whose risk of death halved (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.79; P < 0.006). This was largely driven by reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.79; P < 0.006). This population-based study found that risk-reducing surgery halved the mortality risk for premenopausal breast cancer patients. Replication of our results in independent cohorts, and subsequently randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

The impact of the built environment on health across the life course : design of a cross-sectional data linkage study

Introduction: The built environment is increasingly recognised as being associated with health outcomes. Relationships between the built environment and health differ among age groups, especially between children and adults, but also between younger, mid-age and older adults. Yet few address differences across life stage groups within a single population study. Moreover, existing research mostly focuses on physical activity behaviours, with few studying objective clinical and mental health outcomes. The Life Course Built Environment and Health (LCBEH) project explores the impact of the built environment on self-reported and objectively measured health outcomes in a random sample of people across the life course. Methods and analysis: This cross-sectional data linkage study involves 15 954 children (0–15 years), young adults (16–24 years), adults (25–64 years) and older adults (65+years) from the Perth metropolitan region who completed the Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System survey administered by the Department of Health of Western Australia from 2003 to 2009. Survey data were linked to Western Australia's (WA) Hospital Morbidity Database System (hospital admission) and Mental Health Information System (mental health system outpatient) data. Participants’ residential address was geocoded and features of their ‘neighbourhood’ were measured using Geographic Information Systems software. Associations between the built environment and self-reported and clinical health outcomes will be explored across varying geographic scales and life stages. Ethics and dissemination: The University of Western Australia's Human Research Ethics Committee and the Department of Health of Western Australia approved the study protocol (#2010/1). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at local, national and international conferences, thus contributing to the evidence base informing the design of healthy neighbourhoods for all residents.