Gestão de Zonas Costeiras: caso de estudo Caminha-Espinho

O presente relatório descreve o Estágio Curricular desenvolvido na instituição pública Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) I.P./ Administração da Região Hidrográfica do Norte (ARHN), na Divisão dos Recursos Hídricos do Litoral (DRHL) no Porto, no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Civil, ramo de Infraestruturas, do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP). Os principais objetivos do Estágio prendem-se com a gestão de zonas costeiras, particularizando-se o caso na orla costeira Caminha-Espinho. Dá-se especial enfoque ao estudo da erosão costeira, suas consequências e soluções que a possam minimizar. Este estudo divide-se em três trabalhos principais. O primeiro identifica e caracteriza as ocupações situadas no Domínio Público Marítimo (DPM), no troço de costa em estudo. No segundo, estima-se o balanço sedimentar ocorrido durante uma década com recurso a informação geográfica (altimétrica) de 2001 e 2011. Por fim, o terceiro trabalho apresenta algumas intervenções de defesa costeira, que foram possíveis de visitar durante a sua fase de execução. As principais ferramentas utilizadas para este estudo foram softwares de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG), como o ArcGis ou o QGIS. Estes três trabalhos encontram-se em anexo a este relatório.

Potencial Utilização de um Enterprise Resource Planning System para Suportar Práticas de Gestão de Conhecimento nas Organizações. Uma Aplicação com Dynamics Nav da Microsoft

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Travel simulation inside an Immersive Video Environment (IVE)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Detecting and evaluating land cover change in the eastern half of East Timor (1972-2011)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Additional data on the epidemiology of chagas disease in the municipality of Caxias, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

An area believed to be an autochthonous focus for Chagas' disease was investigated in the municipality of Caxias, Rio de Janeiro State. The study included search for domestic triatomine bugs, serological test (IFT and CFT) in persons in whose house infested bugs were discovered, detailed clinicai examination and xenodiagnosis test of ali serologicall/ yy positive persons, and xenodiagnosis test on dogs from households in which infected triatomine bugs have been found. Only in one of the locatities (Piranema) domestic Triatoma infestans have been discovered. some of which were infected with T. cruzi. A small number of persons (mostly children) had a positive serologicál test for Chagas’ disease, but in all of them the infection was clinically asymptomatic. From two dogs, belonging to a household in which serologically positive children and infected T. infestans were discovered, T. cruzi was isolated by xenodiagnosis. The importunt epidemiological information obtained from this investigation was the discovery of domestic adaptation of T. infestans in an area with dense population .and with very low social and sanitary conditions, in a locality considered as non-endemic for the infection.

Genetic parameters and mapping quantitative trait loci associated with tibia traits in broilers.

Abstract: Selection among broilers for performance traits is resulting in locomotion problems and bone disorders, once skeletal structure is not strong enough to support body weight in broilers with high growth rates. In this study, genetic parameters were estimated for body weight at 42 days of age (BW42), and tibia traits (length, width, and weight) in a population of broiler chickens. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified for tibia traits to expand our knowledge of the genetic architecture of the broiler population. Genetic correlations ranged from 0.56 +/- 0.18 (between tibia length and BW42) to 0.89 +/- 0.06 (between tibia width and weight), suggesting that these traits are either controlled by pleiotropic genes or by genes that are in linkage disequilibrium. For QTL mapping, the genome was scanned with 127 microsatellites, representing a coverage of 2630 cM. Eight QTL were mapped on Gallus gallus chromosomes (GGA): GGA1, GGA4, GGA6, GGA13, and GGA24. The QTL regions for tibia length and weight were mapped on GGA1, between LEI0079 and MCW145 markers. The gene DACH1 is located in this region; this gene acts to form the apical ectodermal ridge, responsible for limb development. Body weight at 42 days of age was included in the model as a covariate for selection effect of bone traits. Two QTL were found for tibia weight on GGA2 and GGA4, and one for tibia width on GGA3. Information originating from these QTL will assist in the search for candidate genes for these bone traits in future studies.

CSR practices and labor retention: How can these variables be related?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation and optimization of a session-based middleware for data management

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

A knowledge-based framework to facilitate E-training implementation

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica e de Computadores

Report of a traineeship : audit of antidepressant prescribing in Primary and Mental Care: how to address appropriateness and keep a curb on costs. A tool suitable for all contexts?

RESUMO: Este é o relatório de um estágio realizado na Autoridade de Saúde Local de Bolonha com o objectivo de desenvolver capacidades e competências na área de projectos orientados para a avaliação com base epidemiológica. As prescrições de anti-depressivos aumentaram consideravelmente em todo o mundo durante as últimas décadas. O uso cada vez maior dos agentes mais dispendiosos desempenha um papel na subida do custo dos tratamentos. A Autoridade de Saúde Local de Bolonha implementou um processo de auditoria com o objectivo de melhorar a adequação das prescrições de pacientes externos, centrando-se em dois anti-depressivos de marca ainda protegidos por patente, Escitalopram e Duloxetine. Os Departamentos de Cuidados de Saúde Primários e de Cuidados de Saúde Mental, assim como o Departamento Farmacêutico e a Unidade de Gestão Clínica, estiveram envolvidos na fase de planeamento da auditoria. O grupo da auditoria, maioritariamente composto por médicos de clínica geral e psiquiatras, reuniu e analisou provas da eficácia e segurança dos anti-depressivos. Os dados sobre as prescrições das Unidades de Cuidados de Saúde Primários e dos Centros de Saúde Mental Comunitários da Autoridade de Saúde Local (866.294 habitantes) foram comparados, em particular as taxas de consumo de Escitalopram e Duloxetine. O grupo da auditoria definiu os standards a serem abordados, os indicadores a serem avaliados e as medidas a empreender para atingir os objectivos definidos. As directrizes do NICE sobre a depressão foram escolhidas como referência. O objectivo da auditoria foi definido como evitar o Escitalopram e Duloxetine como medicamentos de primeira escolha num tratamento anti-depressivo. De modo a verificar a eficácia das medidas empreendidas foi seleccionado um indicador, consistindo numa redução de 25% das prescrições de ambos os anti-depressivos na prática clínica de pacientes externos e numa redução de 20% da variabilidade nas Unidades de Cuidados de Saúde Primários. O relatório retrospectivo pré-auditoria (Janeiro a Abril de 2012) revelou que os tratamentos com anti-depressivos para pacientes externos eram prescritos pelos médicos de clínica geral em mais de90% dos casos. As medidas da auditoria foram implementadas entre Novembro de 2012 e Maio de 2013. Algumas medidas relevantes foram integradas com a revisão da auditoria, tais como reuniões educacionais de pequena escala com os médicos de clínica geral e psiquiatras, visitas de apoio do assessor de prescrições da Autoridade de Saúde Local aos médicos de clínica geral e Centros de Saúde Mental Comunitários, panfletos para profissionais com informação retirada das directrizes clínicas do NICE, implementação de um serviço de consulta na Web para médicos de clínica geral sobre provas relativas a anti-depressivos. O relatório de feedback é aguardado em Novembro de 2013 depois de se verificar nos standards atingidos a eficácia das medidas implementadas. Foi realizada uma análise SWOT para comprovar as forças e fraquezas, as oportunidades e ameaças do processo. Como identificação de fraquezas poderá ser útil identificar estratégias relevantes para melhoria interna, para que o conhecimento das ameaças possa amortizar factores que possam ter impactos adversos que fujam ao controlo do Departamento de Saúde Mental. Uma melhor compreensão das forças e das oportunidades facilita a consecução dos objectivos estabelecidos no projecto. O primeiro, mas não o último, resultado deste processo consistiu numa maior integração entre os Cuidados de Saúde Primários e de Saúde Mental, permitindo assim que a Autoridade de Saúde Local coloque as alterações em prática.------------ABSTRACT: This is the report of a traineeship held in the Local Health Authority of Bologna with the aim to develop skills and competencies in the field of epidemiogically based evaluation oriented projects. Antidepressants prescriptions have considerably increased all over the world in the last decades. The increasing use of the most expensive agents plays a part in the rising cost of treatments. The Local Health Authority of Bologna has implemented an audit process aimed at improving the appropriateness of outpatient prescriptions focusing on the two branded antidepressants still protected by patent, Escitalopram and Duloxetine. The Primary Care and the Mental Health Care Departments, as well as the Pharmaceutical Department and the Clinical Governance Unit, were involved in the planning phase of the audit. The audit group, mainly composed of general practitioners and psychiatrists, collected and analyzed scientific evidence on effectiveness and safety of antidepressants. Data on prescriptions of Primary Care Units and Community Mental Health Centers of the Local Health Authority (866.294 inhabitants) were compared, in particular consumption rates of Escitalopram and Duloxetine. The audit group defined the standards to be addressed, the indicators to be evaluated and the actions aimed at reaching the defined goals. NICE guidelines on depression were chosen as reference. The aim of the audit was settled as avoiding Escitalopram and Duloxetine as first choice drugs starting an AD treatment. In order to check the efficacy of the actions undertaken an indicator was selected, consisting in a reduction of 25% of prescriptions of both ADs in outpatient practice and in a 20% reduction of To develop skills and competencies across Primary Care Units. The pre-audit retrospective report (January-April 2012) showed that outpatient antidepressant treatments were prescribed by GPs in over 90% of cases. Audit actions were implemented between November 2012 and May 2013. Some relevant actions have been integrated with the audit review, such as small-scale educational meetings with GPs and psychiatrists, outreach visits of the LHA prescribing adviser to GPs and CMHCs,leaflets for professionals with information extracted from NICE clinical guidelines, implementation of a web consultation service for GPs about evidence on antidepressants. The feedback report is expected in November 2013 after checking through the standards attained the effectiveness of actions implemented. A SWOT Analysis was carried out to evidence the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the process. As identification of weaknesses may be useful to identify relevant strategies for internal improvement, so the knowledge of threats can amortize factors that may have adverse impacts beyond the control of the Mental Health Department. Better understanding of the strengths and the opportunities facilitates the achievement of the goals set in the project. The first and not least upshot of this process has consisted in further integration between Primary and Mental Health Care, thus enabling the LHA to put the change into practice.

A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

m-SportGIS

Information technologies (ITs), and sports resources and services aid the potential to transform governmental organizations, and play an important role in contributing to sustainable communities development, respectively. Spatial data is a crucial source to support sports planning and management. Low-cost mobile geospatial tools bring productive and accurate data collection, and their use combining a handy and customized graphical user interface (GUI) (forms, mapping, media support) is still in an early stage. Recognizing the benefits — efficiency, effectiveness, proximity to citizens — that Mozambican Minister of Youth and Sports (MJD) can achieve with information resulted from the employment of a low-cost data collection platform, this project presents the development of a mobile mapping application (app) — m-SportGIS — under Open Source (OS) technologies and a customized evolutionary software methodology. The app development embraced the combination of mobile web technologies and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) (e.g. Sencha Touch (ST), Apache Cordova, OpenLayers) to deploy a native-to-the-device (Android operating system) product, taking advantage of device’s capabilities (e.g. File system, Geolocation, Camera). In addition to an integrated Web Map Service (WMS), was created a local and customized Tile Map Service (TMS) to serve up cached data, regarding the IT infrastructures limitations in several Mozambican regions. m-SportGIS is currently being exploited by Mozambican Government staff to inventory all kind of sports facilities, which resulted and stored data feeds a WebGIS platform to manage Mozambican sports resources.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Syphilis seroprevalence estimates of Santa Catarina blood donors in 2010

Introduction Knowledge of blood donor characteristics is essential to better guide clinical and serological screening for hemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine the syphilis seroprevalence and the associated factors of blood donors in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Methods This population-based study from the State of Santa Catarina used information obtained from blood donation records. We analyzed 83,396 blood donor records generated from donors who were considered eligible to donate between January and August 2010. The aim of the study was to estimate the syphilis seroprevalence and its relationship with educational level, age, gender, geographical region and having donated blood in the past 12 months. We used descriptive analyses and a Poisson regression to calculate the prevalence ratios for the variables of interest. Results We found a 0.14% overall seroprevalence and significant differences among the following: first-time blood donors (0.19%) versus repeat donors (0.03% to 0.08%); low educational levels (0.30%) versus medium and high educational levels (0.08% to 0.19%); and donors who did not report their residence (0.88%) or age (6.94%) versus those who did. Increased syphilis seroprevalence was also significantly associated with increased age. Conclusion High syphilis seroprevalence was associated with lower educational level, age, first-time donation and the failure to provide age or residence information.

Alpha generation with Twitter’s daily momentum

This thesis does not set out to focus on the dynamics relationship between Twitter and stock prices, but instead tries to understand if using relevant information extracted from tweets has the power to increase investors’ stock picking ability, and generate alpha in portfolio’s choice relative to a benchmark. Despite the short period analyzed, it gives promising results that the sentiment analysis performed by Social Market Analytics Inc. applied to an equity portfolio, is able to generate positive abnormal returns, statistically significant in and out of sample.