Energy efficiency investments in the home: Swiss homeowners and expectations about future energy prices

Using conjoint choice experiments, we surveyed 473 Swiss homeowners about their preferences for energy efficiency home renovations.We find that homeowners are responsive to the upfront costs of the renovation projects, governmentoffered rebates, savings in energy expenses, time horizon over which such savings would be realized, and thermal comfort improvement. The implicit discount rate is low, ranging from 1.5 to 3%, depending on model specification. This is consistent with Hassett and Metcalf (1993) and Metcalf and Rosenthal (1995), and with the fact that our scenarios contain no uncertainty. Respondents who feel completely uncertain about future energy prices are more likely to select the status quo (no renovations) in any given choice task and weight the costs of the investments more heavily than the financial gains (subsidies and savings on the energy bills). Renovations are more likely when respondents believe that climate change considerations are important determinants of home renovations. Copyright © 2013 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Coleoptera and microbe biomass in Antarctic Dry Valley paleosols adjacent to the Inland Ice: Implications for Mars

Bulk paleosol samples collected from a Middle to Early Miocene moraine in the New Mountain area of the Dry Valleys, Antarctica, yielded Coleoptera exoskeletons and occasional endoskeletons showing considerable diagenetic effects along with several species of bacteria, all lodged in a dry-frozen but salt-rich horizon at shallow depth to the land surface. The till is at the older end of a chronologic sequence of glacial deposits, thought to have been deposited before the transition from wet-based to cold-based ice (similar to 15 Ma), and hence, entirely weathered in contact with the subaerial atmosphere. It is possible, though not absolutely verifiable, that the skeletons date from this early stage of emplacement having undergone modifications whenever light snowmelt occurred or salt concentrations lowered the freezing temperature to maintain water as liquid. Correlation of the Coleoptera species with cultured bacteria in the sample and the likelihood of co-habitation with Beauveria bassiani found in two adjacent, although younger paleosols, leads to new questions about the antiquity of the Coleoptera and the source of N and glucose from chitinase derived from the insects. The skeletons in the 831 section may date close to the oldest preserved chitin (Oligocene) yet found on Earth. While harsh Martian conditions make it seemingly intolerable for complex, multicellular organisms such as insects to exist in the near-surface and subaerially, life within similar cold, dry paleosol microenvironments (Cryosols) of Antarctica point to life potential for the Red Planet, especially when considering the relatively diverse microbe (bacteria and fungi) population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weathering rinds as mirror images of palaeosols: Examples from the Western Alps with correlation to Antarctica and Mars

Weathering rinds have been used for decades as relative age indicators to differentiate glacial deposits in long Quaternary sequences, but only recently has it been shown that rinds contain long and extensive palaeoenvironmental records that often extend far beyond mere repositories of chemical weathering on both Earth and Mars. When compared with associated palaeosols in deposits of the same age, rinds often carry a zonal weathering record that can be correlated with palaeosol horizon characteristics, with respect to both abiotic and biotic parameters. As demonstrated with examples from the French and Italian Alps, rinds in coarse clastic sediment contain weathering zones that correlate closely with horizon development in associated palaeosols of presumed Late Glacial age. In addition to weathering histories in both rinds and palaeosols, considerable evidence exists to indicate that the black mat impact (12.8 ka) reached the European Alps, a connection with the Younger Dryas readvance supported by both mineral and chemical composition. Preliminary metagenomic microbial analysis using density gradient gel electrophoresis suggests that the eubacterial microbial population found in at least one Ah palaeosol horizon associated with a rind impact site is different from that in other Late Glacial and Younger Dryas surface palaeosol horizons. © 2013 The Geological Society of London.

Tackling Invasive Alien Species in Europe: the Top 20 Issues

Globally, Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are considered to be one of the major threats to native biodiversity, with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) citing their impacts as ?immense, insidious, and usually irreversible?. It is estimated that 11% of the c. 12,000 alien species in Europe are invasive, causing environmental, economic and social damage; and it is reasonable to expect that the rate of biological invasions into Europe will increase in the coming years. In order to assess the current position regarding IAS in Europe and to determine the issues that were deemed to be most important or critical regarding these damaging species, the international Freshwater Invasives - Networking for Strategy (FINS) conference was convened in Ireland in April 2013. Delegates from throughout Europe and invited speakers from around the world were brought together for the conference. These comprised academics, applied scientists, policy makers, politicians, practitioners and representative stakeholder groups. A horizon scanning and issue prioritization approach was used by in excess of 100 expert delegates in a workshop setting to elucidate the Top 20 IAS issues in Europe. These issues do not focus solely on freshwater habitats and taxa but relate also to marine and terrestrial situations. The Top 20 issues that resulted represent a tool for IAS management and should also be used to support policy makers as they prepare European IAS legislation.

Hierarchical demand response using dantzig-wolfe decomposition

Demand Side Management (DSM) programmes are designed to shift electrical loads from peak times. Demand Response (DR) algorithms automate this process for controllable loads. DR can be implemented explicitly in terms of Peak to Average Ratio Reduction (PARR), in which case the maximum peak load is minimised over a prediction horizon by manipulating the amount of energy given to controllable loads at different times. A hierarchical predictive PARR algorithm is presented here based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. © 2013 IEEE.

Detection of Lateglacial distal tephra layers in the Netherlands

Three distal tephra layers or cryptotephras have been detected within a sedimentary sequence from the Netherlands that spans the last glacial-interglacial transition. Geochemical analyses identify one as the Vedde Ash, which represents the southernmost discovery of this mid-Younger Dryas tephra so far. This tephra was found as a distinct horizon in three different cores sampled within the basin. The remaining two tephras have not been geochemically ‘fingerprinted’, partly due to low concentrations and uneven distributions of shards within the sequences sampled. Nevertheless, there is the potential for tracing these tephra layers throughout the Netherlands and into other parts of continental Europe. Accordingly, the possibilities for precise correlation of Dutch palaeoenvironmental records with other continental, marine and ice-core records from the North Atlantic region are highlighted.

Moving beyond the rhetoric of provocation: the French and World War II in the novels of the Hussards (1949-1954)

In the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, only those who had opposed the Germans or were perceived to have done so could freely express themselves. Soon, however, three young writers clearly leaning to the right of the political spectrum – Antoine Blondin, Roger Nimier and Jacques Laurent – dared to challenge their narratives in a series of provocative novels published between 1949 and 1954. Quickly referred to as the Hussards after the publication in 1952 of a famous essay by Bernard Frank, these writers momentarily occupied the literary space left vacant by their older peers. Without denying the provocative, political and subversive dimensions of the Hussards’ war novels, this article will argue that their success was mainly due to the fact that they were largely in line – and not in contradiction – with the ‘horizon of expectations’ of their time (Jauss, 1982).

Algunas reflexiones sobre el Bronce Inicial en el Noroeste peninsular: La cuestión del llamado horizonte “Montelavar”

Although considerable effort has gone into the study of the subject, the Early Bronze Age of northwestern Iberia remains one of the more poorly understood phenomena of the Iberian Bronze Age. Most past attempts to systemise the relevant archaeological evidence did suffer from certain conceptual problems, particulary Harrison’s notion of a ‘Montelavar horizon’ or ‘Montelavar group’, formulated thirty years ago. As a consequence, neither this nor any of the other concepts which have been put forward in the past, has ever been embraced by a majority of scholars. In the present article, we are trying to solve at least some of the problems that plagued earlier concepts, by taking a fresh look at the Early Bronze Age funerary record from northwestern Iberia. At the same time, we are looking at the role played by Galicia and northern Portugal in the network of interregional contacts which characterize the Early Bronze Age in Western Europe.

Antibiotic and anti-inflammatory therapies for cystic fibrosis

Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease is characterized by chronic bacterial infection and an unremitting inflammatory response, which are responsible for most of CF morbidity and mortality. The median expected survival has increased from <6 mo in 1940 to >38 yr now. This dramatic improvement, although not great enough, is due to the development of therapies directed at secondary disease pathologies, especially antibiotics. The importance of developing treatments directed against the vigorous inflammatory response was realized in the 1990s. New therapies directed toward the basic defect are now visible on the horizon. However, the impact of these drugs on downstream pathological consequences is unknown. It is likely that antibiotics and anti-inflammatory drugs will remain an important part of the maintenance regimen for CF in the foreseeable future. Current and future antibiotic and anti-inflammatory therapies for CF are reviewed. © 2013 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

On Infinite Time Performance of Nonlinear Model Predictive Controllers

This paper addresses the problem of infinite time performance of model predictive controllers applied to constrained nonlinear systems. The total performance is compared with a finite horizon optimal cost to reveal performance limits of closed-loop model predictive control systems. Based on the Principle of Optimality, an upper and a lower bound of the ratio between the total performance and the finite horizon optimal cost are obtained explicitly expressed by the optimization horizon. The results also illustrate, from viewpoint of performance, how model predictive controllers approaches to infinite optimal controllers as the optimization horizon increases.

Participation of Smallholders in Agroforestry Agri-Environmental Scheme: A lesson from the rural Mount Kenya region

The likelihood of smallholder farmers not participating in agroforestry agri-environmental schemes and payments for ecosystem services (PES) may be due to limited farmland endowment and formal credit constraints. These deficits may lead to an ‘exclusive club’ of successful farmers, which are not necessarily poor, enjoying the benefits of agri-environmental schemes and PES although agrienvironmental schemes and PES have been devised as a means of fostering rural sustainable development and improving the livelihood of poor smallholder farmers. Smallholder farmers in parts of rural Kenya continue to enroll in ‘The International Small Group Tree Planting Programme’ (TIST), an agri-environmental scheme, promoting agroforestry, carbon sequestration and conservation agriculture (CA). The question remains if these farmers are really poor? This study examines factors that determine the participation of smallholder farmers in TIST in parts of rural Kenya. We use survey data compiled in 2013 on 210 randomly selected smallholder farmers from Embu, Meru and Nanyuki communities; the sample consists of TIST and non-TIST members. A random utility model and logit regression were used to test a set of non-monetary and monetary factors that influence participation in the TIST. The utility function is conceptualized to give non-monetary factors, particularly the common medium of communication in rural areas – formal and informal – a central role. Furthermore, we investigate other factors (incl. credit accessibility and interest rate) that reveal the nature of farmers participating in TIST. The findings suggest that spread of information via formal and informal networks is a major driver of participation in the TIST program. Furthermore, variables such credit constrains, age and labour supply positively correlate with TIST participation, while for education the opposite is true. It is important to mention that these correlations, although somewhat consistent, were all found to be weak. The results indicate that participation in the TIST program is not influenced by farm size; therefore we argue that the TIST scheme is NOT an ‘exclusive club’ comprising wealthy and successful farmers. Older farmers’ being more likely to join the TIST is an argument for their long- rather than widely assumed short-term planning horizon and a new contribution to the literature. Given the importance of poverty alleviation and climate smart agriculture in developing countries, sustainable policy should strengthening the social and human capital as well as informal networks in rural areas. Extension services should effectively communicate benefits to less educated and credit constrained farmers.

Carbon and nitrogen uptake of calcareous benthic foraminifera along a depth-related oxygen gradient in the OMZ of the Arabian Sea

Foraminifera are an important faunal element of the benthos in oxygen-depleted settings such as Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) where they can play a relevant role in the processing of phytodetritus. We investigated the uptake of phytodetritus (labeled with 13C and 15N) by cal-careous foraminifera in the 0-1 cm sediment horizon under different oxygen concentrations within the OMZ in the eastern Arabian Sea. The in situ tracer experiments were carried out along a depth transect on the Indian margin over a period of 4 to 10 days. The uptake of phy-todetrital carbon within 4 days by all investigated species shows that phytodetritus is a rele-vant food source for foraminifera in OMZ sediments. The decrease of total carbon uptake from 540 to 1100 m suggests a higher demand for carbon by species in the low-oxygen core region of the OMZ or less food competition with macrofauna. Especially Uvigerinids showed high uptake of phytodetrital carbon at the lowest oxygenated site. Variation in the ratio of phytodetrital carbon to nitrogen between species and sites indicates that foraminiferal carbon and nitrogen use can be decoupled and different nutritional demands are found between spe-cies. Lower ratio of phytodetrital carbon and nitrogen at 540 m could hint for greater demand or storage of food-based nitrogen, ingestion or hosting of bacteria under almost anoxic condi-tions. Shifts in the foraminiferal assemblage structure (controlled by oxygen or food availabil-ity) and in the presence of other benthic organisms account for observed changes in the pro-cessing of phytodetritus in the different OMZ habitats. Foraminifera dominate the short-term processing of phytodetritus in the OMZ core but are less important in the lower OMZ bounda-ry region of the Indian margin as biological interactions and species distribution of foraminifera change with depth and oxygen levels.

Neolithic and Bronze age migration to Ireland and establishment of the insular Atlantic genome

The Neolithic and Bronze Age transitions were profound cultural shifts catalyzed in parts of Europe by migrations, first of early farmers from the Near East and then Bronze Age herders from the Pontic Steppe. However, a decades-long, unresolved controversy is whether population change or cultural adoption occurred at the Atlantic edge, within the British Isles. We address this issue by using the first whole genome data from prehistoric Irish individuals. A Neolithic woman (3343–3020 cal BC) from a megalithic burial (10.3× coverage) possessed a genome of predominantly Near Eastern origin. She had some hunter–gatherer ancestry but belonged to a population of large effective size, suggesting a substantial influx of early farmers to the island. Three Bronze Age individuals from Rathlin Island (2026–1534 cal BC), including one high coverage (10.5×) genome, showed substantial Steppe genetic heritage indicating that the European population upheavals of the third millennium manifested all of the way from southern Siberia to the western ocean. This turnover invites the possibility of accompanying introduction of Indo-European, perhaps early Celtic, language. Irish Bronze Age haplotypic similarity is strongest within modern Irish, Scottish, and Welsh populations, and several important genetic variants that today show maximal or very high frequencies in Ireland appear at this horizon. These include those coding for lactase persistence, blue eye color, Y chromosome R1b haplotypes, and the hemochromatosis C282Y allele; to our knowledge, the first detection of a known Mendelian disease variant in prehistory. These findings together suggest the establishment of central attributes of the Irish genome 4,000 y ago.

Do spectral gamma ray data really reflect humid-arid palaeoclimates? A test from the Palaeogene Interbasaltic weathered horizons at the Giant’s Causeway, N.Ireland

Since 1999, the rapid, inexpensive and non-destructive use of Th/K and Th/U ratios from spectral gamma ray measurements have been used as a proxy for changes in palaeo-hinterland weathering. This model is tested here by analysis of in situ palaeoweathering horizons where clay mineral contents are well-known. A residual palaeoweathered horizon of Palaeogene laterite (developed on basalt) has been logged at 14 locations across N. Ireland using spectral gamma ray detectors. The results are compared to published elemental and mineralogical data. While the model of K and U loss during the early stages of weathering to smectite and kaolinite is supported, the formation (during progressively more advanced weathering) of gibbsite and iron oxides has reversed the predicted pattern and caused U and Th retention in the weathering profile. The severity (duration, humidity) of weathering and palaeoweathering may be estimated using Th/K ratios as a proxy. The use of Th/U ratios is more problematic should detrital gibbsite (or similar clays) or iron oxides be detected. Mineralogical analysis is needed in order to evaluate the hosts for K, U and Th: nonetheless, the spectral gamma ray machine offers a real-time, inexpensive and effective tool for the preliminary or conjunctive assessment of degrees of weathering or palaeoweathering.