Patient-related risk factors leading to aseptic stem loosening in total hip arthroplasty: a case-control study of 5,035 patients

BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that certain patient characteristics have different effects on the risk of early stem loosening in total hip arthroplasty (THA). We therefore conducted a case-control study using register-database records with the aim of identifying patient-specific risk factors associated with radiographic signs of aseptic loosening of the femoral component in THA. METHOD: Data were derived from a multinational European registry and were collected over a period of 25 years. 725 cases with radiographic signs of stem loosening were identified and matched to 4,310 controls without any signs of loosening. Matching criteria were type of implant, size of head, date of operation, center of primary intervention, and follow-up time. The risk factors analyzed were age at operation, sex, diagnosis and previous ipsilateral operations, height, weight, body mass index and mobility based on the Charnley classification. RESULTS: Women showed significantly lower risk of radiographic loosening than men (odds ratio (OR) 0.64). Age was also a strong factor: risk decreased by 1.8% for each additional year of age at the time of surgery. Height and weight were not associated with risk of loosening. A higher body mass index, however, increased the risk of stem loosening to a significant extent (OR 1.03) per additional unit of BMI. Charnley Class B, indicating restricted mobility, was associated with lower risk of loosening (OR 0.78). INTERPRETATION: An increased activity level, as seen in younger patients and those with unrestricted mobility, is an important factor in the etiology of stem loosening. If combined with high BMI, the risk of stem loosening within 10 years is even higher. A younger person should not be denied the benefits of a total hip arthroplasty but must accept that the risk of future failure is increased.

Oral lichen planus and malignant transformation: a retrospective follow-up study of clinical and histopathologic data

OBJECTIVE: Patients in the stomatology service of the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology who were clinically and histopathologically diagnosed with oral lichen planus (OLP) in the years 1995 to 2001 were examined for a possible malignant transformation of a previously biopsied OLP site. METHOD AND MATERIALS: For the 145 patients included, the recordings were searched for initial localization and type of OLP lesion, potential noxious agents, distribution between symptomatic and asymptomatic OLP types, and for a malignant transformation of a known OLP site during the follow-up period up to December 2003. RESULTS: The group comprised 47 men and 98 women with a mean age of 56.3 years. Of the 497 lesions, almost half were classified as reticular or papular, predominantly located on the buccal mucosa, gingiva, and borders of the tongue. Four patients did not adhere to their scheduled control visits and were dropped from the study. During the follow-up period 4 patients developed malignant transformation of OLP. In 3 of these cases, dysplasia was present at the initial diagnosis of OLP. This results in a malignant transformation rate of 2.84% among the remaining 141 patients; if the 3 patients with initial dysplasia are excluded, the rate drops to 0.71%. CONCLUSIONS: Until further knowledge is derived from large prospective studies, the data supporting or negating a potential malignant character of OLP lesions remains inconclusive. Special emphasis has to be directed toward unified inclusion and exclusion criteria regarding clinical and histologic findings and identifiable risk factors to allow the comparison of different studies.

Are mutans streptococci detected in preschool children a reliable predictive factor for dental caries risk? A systematic review

Research suggests that mutans streptococci play an important role in cariogenesis in children but the usefulness of bacterial testing in risk assessment is unknown. Our objective was to summarize the literature assessing the association of mutans streptococci and dental caries in preschool children, (Pre)Medline (1966-2003), Embase (1980-2003), the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (2003, issue 3), and reference lists of included studies were searched. All abstracts found by the electronic searches (n = 981) were independently scrutinized by 2 reviewers. Minimal requirements for inclusion were assessment of preschool children without caries at baseline, reporting of mutans streptococci present in saliva or plaque at baseline and assessment of caries presence after a minimum of 6 months of follow-up. Participants' details, test methods, methodological characteristics and findings were extracted by one reviewer and cross-checked by another. Homogeneity was tested using chi2 tests. Results of plaque and saliva testing were pooled separately using a fixed effects model. Methodological quality of reports was low. Out of 9 studies included, data from 3 reports on plaque test assessment alone (n = 300) and from 4 reports on saliva test assessment alone (n = 451) were available for pooled analysis. The pooled risk ratio (95% CI) was 3.85 (2.48-5.96) in studies using plaque tests and 2.11 (1.47-3.02) in those using saliva testing. Presence of mutans streptococci, both in plaque or saliva of young caries-free children, appears to be associated with a considerable increase in caries risk. Lack of adjustment for potential confounders in the original studies, however, limits the extent to which interpretations for practice can be made.

Prognostic factors affecting long-term outcomes in patients with resected stage IIIA pN2 non-small-cell lung cancer: 5-year follow-up of a phase II study

The aim was to investigate the efficacy of neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin and identify prognostic factors for outcome in locally advanced stage IIIA (pN2 by mediastinoscopy) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. In all, 75 patients (from 90 enrolled) underwent tumour resection after three 3-week cycles of docetaxel 85 mg m-2 (day 1) plus cisplatin 40 or 50 mg m-2 (days 1 and 2). Therapy was well tolerated (overall grade 3 toxicity occurred in 48% patients; no grade 4 nonhaematological toxicity was reported), with no observed late toxicities. Median overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) times were 35 and 15 months, respectively, in the 75 patients who underwent surgery; corresponding figures for all 90 patients enrolled were 28 and 12 months. At 3 years after initiating trial therapy, 27 out of 75 patients (36%) were alive and tumour free. At 5-year follow-up, 60 and 65% of patients had local relapse and distant metastases, respectively. The most common sites of distant metastases were the lung (24%) and brain (17%). Factors associated with OS, EFS and risk of local relapse and distant metastases were complete tumour resection and chemotherapy activity (clinical response, pathologic response, mediastinal downstaging). Neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin was effective and tolerable in stage IIIA pN2 NSCLC, with chemotherapy contributing significantly to outcomes.

The use of a decremental dose regimen in patients treated with a chronic low-dose step-up protocol for WHO Group II anovulation: a prospective randomized multicentre study

BACKGROUND: In women with chronic anovulation, the choice of the FSH starting dose and the modality of subsequent dose adjustments are critical in controlling the risk of overstimulation. The aim of this prospective randomized study was to assess the efficacy and safety of a decremental FSH dose regimen applied once the leading follicle was 10-13 mm in diameter in women treated for WHO Group II anovulation according to a chronic low-dose (CLD; 75 IU FSH for 14 days with 37.5 IU increment) step-up protocol. METHODS: Two hundred and nine subfertile women were treated with recombinant human FSH (r-hFSH) (Gonal-f) for ovulation induction according to a CLD step-up regimen. When the leading follicle reached a diameter of 10-13 mm, 158 participants were randomized by means of a computer-generated list to receive either the same FSH dose required to achieve the threshold for follicular development (CLD regimen) or half of this FSH dose [sequential (SQ) regimen]. HCG was administered only if not more than three follicles >or=16 mm in diameter were present and/or serum estradiol (E(2)) values were <1200 pg/ml. The primary outcome measure was the number of follicles >or=16 mm in size at the time of hCG administration. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics and ovarian parameters at the time of randomization were similar in the two groups. Both CLD and SQ protocols achieved similar follicular growth as regards the total number of follicles and medium-sized or mature follicles (>/=16 mm: 1.5 +/- 0.9 versus 1.4 +/- 0.7, respectively). Furthermore, serum E(2) levels were equivalent in the two groups at the time of hCG administration (441 +/- 360 versus 425 +/- 480 pg/ml for CLD and SQ protocols, respectively). The rate of mono-follicular development was identical as well as the percentage of patients who ovulated and achieved pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the CLD step-up regimen for FSH administration is efficacious and safe for promoting mono-follicular ovulation in women with WHO Group II anovulation. This study confirms that maintaining the same FSH starting dose for 14 days before increasing the dose in step-up regimen is critical to adequately control the risk of over-response. Strict application of CLD regimen should be recommended in women with WHO Group II anovulation.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

HAART and the heart: changes in coronary risk factors and implications for coronary risk in men starting antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To estimate changes in coronary risk factors and their implications for coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in men starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Men participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with measurements of coronary risk factors both before and up to 3 years after starting HAART were identified. Fractional polynomial regression was used to graph associations between risk factors and time on HAART. Mean risk factor changes associated with starting HAART were estimated using multilevel models. A prognostic model was used to predict corresponding CHD rate ratios. RESULTS: Of 556 eligible men, 259 (47%) started a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) and 297 a protease inhibitor (PI) based regimen. Levels of most risk factors increased sharply during the first 3 months on HAART, then more slowly. Increases were greater with PI- than NNRTI-based HAART for total cholesterol (1.18 vs. 0.98 mmol L(-1)), systolic blood pressure (3.6 vs. 0 mmHg) and BMI (1.04 vs. 0.55 kg m(2)) but not HDL cholesterol (0.24 vs. 0.32 mmol L(-1)) or glucose (1.02 vs. 1.03 mmol L(-1)). Predicted CHD rate ratios were 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.75) and 1.17 (0.95-1.47) for PI- and NNRTI-based HAART respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Coronary heart disease rates will increase in a majority of patients starting HAART: however the increases corresponding to typical changes in risk factors are relatively modest and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

The PRO-AGE study: an international randomised controlled study of health risk appraisal for older persons based in general practice

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the study protocol, the recruitment, and base-line data for evaluating the success of randomisation of the PRO-AGE (PRevention in Older people-Assessment in GEneralists' practices) project. METHODS/DESIGN: A group of general practitioners (GPs) in London (U.K.), Hamburg (Germany) and Solothurn (Switzerland) were trained in risk identification, health promotion, and prevention in older people. Their non-disabled older patients were invited to participate in a randomised controlled study. Participants allocated to the intervention group were offered the Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument with a site-specific method for reinforcement (London: physician reminders in electronic medical record; Hamburg: one group session or two preventive home visits; Solothurn: six-monthly preventive home visits over a two-year period). Participants allocated to the control group received usual care. At each site, an additional group of GPs did not receive the training, and their eligible patients were invited to participate in a concurrent comparison group. Primary outcomes are self-reported health behaviour and preventative care use at one-year follow-up. In Solothurn, an additional follow-up was conducted at two years. The number of older persons agreeing to participate (% of eligible persons) in the randomised controlled study was 2503 (66.0%) in London, 2580 (53.6%) in Hamburg, and 2284 (67.5%) in Solothurn. Base-line findings confirm that randomisation of participants was successful, with comparable characteristics between intervention and control groups. The number of persons (% of eligible) enrolled in the concurrent comparison group was 636 (48.8%) in London, 746 (35.7%) in Hamburg, and 1171 (63.0%) in Solothurn. DISCUSSION: PRO-AGE is the first large-scale randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe. Its results will inform about the effects of implementing HRA-O with different methods of reinforcement.

Health risk appraisal in older people 2: the implications for clinicians and commissioners of social isolation risk in older people

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is associated with poorer health, and is seen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major issues facing the industrialised world. AIM: To explore the significance of social isolation in the older population for GPs and for service commissioners. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 2641 community-dwelling, non-disabled people aged 65 years and over in suburban London. METHOD: Demographic details, social network and risk for social isolation based on the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale, measures of depressed mood, memory problems, numbers of chronic conditions, medication use, functional ability, self-reported use of medical services. RESULTS: More than 15% of the older age group were at risk of social isolation, and this risk increased with advancing age. In bivariate analyses risk of social isolation was associated with older age, education up to 16 years only, depressed mood and impaired memory, perceived fair or poor health, perceived difficulty with both basic and instrumental activities of daily living, diminishing functional ability, and fear of falling. Despite poorer health status, those at risk of social isolation did not appear to make greater use of medical services, nor were they at greater risk of hospital admission. Half of those who scored as at risk of social isolation lived with others. Multivariate analysis showed significant independent associations between risk of social isolation and depressed mood and living alone, and weak associations with male sex, impaired memory and perceived poor health. CONCLUSION: The risk of social isolation is elevated in older men, older persons who live alone, persons with mood or cognitive problems, but is not associated with greater use of services. These findings would not support population screening for individuals at risk of social isolation with a view to averting service use by timely intervention. Awareness of social isolation should trigger further assessment, and consideration of interventions to alleviate social isolation, treat depression or ameliorate cognitive impairment.

Inappropriate interventions during the long-term follow-up of patients with an implantable defibrillator

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: In patients with an implantable defibrillator (ICD), inappropriate ICD interventions alter the quality of life, may cause hospitalisations and limit cost-effectiveness. The aim of the study was to determine the incidence and causes of inappropriate ICD interventions, and to identify patients at risk. METHODS: For this observational longitudinal study, consecutive patients undergoing ICD implantation at the University Hospital of Berne were included in a registry. All stored electrograms of episodes triggering ICD interventions were systematically reviewed and analysed to determine whether ICD interventions were appropriate or inappropriate. Inappropriate ICD interventions were classified according to their cause, and risk factors were sought. RESULTS: 214 consecutive patients were followed during a median time of 2.7 years (3.7 years IQR, 698 patient years). 81 inappropriate ICD interventions occurred in 58 patients (27%). Factors triggering inappropriate ICD interventions included atrial fibrillation and flutter (n = 35, 44%), sinus tachycardia (n = 26, 32%), lead fracture (n = 12), recurrent self-terminating ventricular tachycardia (n = 5), double-counting due to T-wave oversensing (n = 3). The only identifiable risk factor for inappropriate ICD interventions was sustained ventricular tachycardia as index arrhythmia. CONCLUSIONS: An important proportion of ICD patients suffer inappropriate ICD interventions that are most commonly due to supraventricular arrhythmias. Patients with ventricular tachycardia prior to ICD implantation are at higher risk of inappropriate ICD interventions. Interventions aiming at decreasing the risk of inappropriate ICD interventions should be considered in these patients.

Anti-myelin antibodies in clinically isolated syndrome indicate the risk of multiple sclerosis in a Swiss cohort

OBJECTIVES: In patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), the time interval to convert to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) is highly variable. Individual and geographical prognostic factors remain to be determined. Whether anti-myelin antibodies may predict the risk of conversion to CDMS in Swiss CIS patients of the canton Berne was the subject of the study. METHODS: Anti-myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein and anti-myelin basic protein antibodies were determined prospectively in patients admitted to our department. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 12 months, none of nine antibody-negative, but 22 of 30 antibody-positive patients had progressed to CDMS. Beta-Interferon treatment delayed the time to conversion from a mean of 7.4 to 10.9 months. CONCLUSIONS: In a Swiss cohort, antibody-negative CIS patients have a favorable short-term prognosis, and antibody-positive patients benefit from early treatment.

Risk of adverse effects of intensified treatment in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis

While the benefits of intensified insulin treatment in insulin-dependent (Type 1) diabetes mellitus (IDDM) are well recognized, the risks have not been comprehensively characterized. We examined the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, ketoacidosis, and death in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. The MEDLINE database, reference lists, and specialist journals were searched electronically or by hand to identify relevant studies with at least 6 months of follow-up and the monitoring of glycaemia by glycosylated haemoglobin measurements. Logistic regression was used for calculation of combined odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The influence of covariates was examined by including covariate-by-treatment interaction terms. Methodological study quality was assessed and sensitivity analyses were performed. Fourteen trials were identified. These contributed 16 comparisons with 1028 patients allocated to intensified and 1039 allocated to conventional treatment. A total of 846 patients suffered at least one episode of severe hypoglycaemia, 175 patients experienced ketoacidosis and 26 patients died. The combined odds ratio (95% CI) for hypoglycaemia was 2.99 (2.45-3.64), for ketoacidosis 1.74 (1.27-2.38) and for death from all causes 1.40 (0.65-3.01). The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was determined by the degree of normalization of glycaemia achieved (p=0.005 for interaction term), with the results from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) in line with the other trials. Ketoacidosis risk depended on the type of intensified treatment used. Odds ratios (95% CI) were 7.20 (2.95-17.58) for exclusive use of pumps, 1.13 (0.15-8.35) for multiple daily injections and 1.28 (0.90-1.83) for trials offering a choice between the two (p = 0.004 for interaction). Mortality was significantly (p = 0.007) increased for causes potentially associated with acute complications (7 vs 0 deaths, 5 deaths attributed to ketoacidosis, and 2 sudden deaths), and non-significantly (p = 0.16) decreased for macrovascular causes (3 vs 8 deaths). We conclude that there is a substantial risk of severe adverse effects associated with intensified insulin treatment. Mortality from acute metabolic causes is increased; however, this is largely counterbalanced by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. The excess of severe hypoglycemia in the DCCT is not exceptional. Multiple daily injection schemes may be safer than treatment with insulin pumps.

Fasting plasma glucose predicts survival and angiographic progression in high-risk postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: We studied the association of baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels with survival and coronary artery disease (CAD) progression among postmenopausal women without unstable angina. METHODS: Women were recruited from seven centers in the Women's Angiographic Vitamin and Estrogen Trial (WAVE) (n = 423). Event follow-up was available for 400 women (65.1 +/- 8.5 years, 66% white, 92% hypertensive, 19% smokers, 67% hypercholesterolemic). Thirty-eight percent of the women had diabetes or FPG > 125 mg/dL, and 21% had a fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL. Follow-up angiography was performed in 304 women. Cox regression was used to model survival from a composite outcome of death or myocardial infarction (D/MI, 26 events; median follow-up 2.4 years). Angiographic progression was analyzed quantitatively using linear regression accounting for baseline minimum lumen diameter (MLD), follow-up time, and intrasubject correlations using generalized estimating equations. Regression analyses were adjusted for follow-up time, baseline age, treatment assignment, and Framingham risk (excluding diabetes). RESULTS: Women with impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus (IFG/DM) had a relative risk (RR) of D/MI of 4.2 ( p = 0.009). In all women, each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with an 11% increase ( p < 0.001) in the hazard of D/MI. Each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with a 6.8 mum decrease in MLD over the follow-up period ( p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Higher FPG is associated with increased risk of D/MI and greater narrowing of the coronary lumen in women with CAD. Aggressive monitoring of glucose levels may be beneficial for secondary CAD prevention.

Depression, the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk

BACKGROUND: The relationship between depression and the metabolic syndrome is unclear, and whether metabolic syndrome explains the association between depression and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is unknown. METHODS: We studied 652 women who received coronary angiography as part of the Women's Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation (WISE) study and completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Women who had both elevated depressive symptoms (BDI > or =10) and a previous diagnosis of depression were considered at highest risk, whereas those with one of the two conditions represented an intermediate group. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the ATP-III criteria. The main outcome was incidence of adverse CVD events (hospitalizations for myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, and CVD-related mortality) over a median follow-up of 5.9 years. RESULTS: After adjusting for demographic factors, lifestyle and functional status, both depression categories were associated with about 60% increased odds for metabolic syndrome compared with no depression (p = .03). The number of metabolic syndrome risk factors increased gradually across the three depression categories (p = .003). During follow-up, 104 women (15.9%) experienced CVD events. In multivariable analysis, women with both elevated symptoms and a previous diagnosis of depression had 2.6 times higher risk of CVD. When metabolic syndrome was added to the model, the risk associated with depression only decreased by 7%, and both depression and metabolic syndrome remained significant predictors of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In women with suspected coronary artery disease, the metabolic syndrome is independently associated with depression but explains only a small portion of the association between depression and incident CVD.