Banking as an emerging technology: Hoare's Bank, 1702-1742

London s financial market underwent dramatic change after 1700. More limitedthan Paris or Amsterdam in the seventeenth century, London became the leadingfinancial centre in Europe in the eighteenth century. There is an extensive andgrowing literature on the causes of this change, but comparatively little on thechange itself. This article provides detailed information on the operation of theLondon financial market around 1700 by describing the operations of a nascentLondon bank.

Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love

This paper argues that Malthusian regimes are capable of sustained changes in per capita incomes. Shifting mortality and fertility schedules can lead to different steady-state income levels, with long periods of growth during the transition. Europe checked the downward pressure on wages through late marriage, which reduced fertility, and a mortality regime that combined high death rates with high incomes. We argue that both emerged as a result of the Black Death.

Private borrowing during the financial revolution: Hoare’s Bank and its customers, 1702-1724

The financial revolution improved the British government s ability to borrow, andthus its ability to wage war. North andWeingast argued that it also permitted privateparties to borrow more cheaply and widely.We test these inferences with evidencefrom a London bank.We confirm that private bank credit was cheap in the earlyeighteenth century, but we argue that it was not available widely. Importantly, thegovernment reduced the usury rate in 1714, sharply reducing the circle of privateclients that could be served profitably.

Adverse events to antiretrovirals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: effect on mortality and treatment modification.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.

Sweet diversity: Colonial goods and the rise of European living standards after 1492

When did overseas trade start to matter for living standards? Traditional real-wage indices suggest that living standards in Europe stagnated before 1800. In this paper, we argue thatwelfare rose substantially, but surreptitiously, because of an influx of new goods as a result ofoverseas trade. Colonial luxuries such as tea, coffee, and sugar transformed European diets afterthe discovery of America and the rounding of the Cape of Good Hope. These goods became household items in many countries by the end of the 18th century. We use three different methodsto calculate welfare gains based on price data and the rate of adoption of these new colonialgoods. Our results suggest that by 1800, the average Englishman would have been willing to forego 10% or more of his income in order to maintain access to sugar and tea alone. These findings are robust to a wide range of alternative assumptions, data series, and valuation methods.

Lending to the borrower from hell: Debt and default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

What sustained borrowing without third-party enforcement, in the early days of sovereignlending? Philip II of Spain accumulated towering debts while stopping all payments tohis lenders four times. How could the sovereign borrow much and default often? Weargue that bankers ability to cut off Philip II s access to smoothing services was key. Aform of syndicated lending created cohesion among his Genoese bankers. As a result,lending moratoria were sustained through a cheat the cheater mechanism (Kletzer andWright, 2000). Our paper thus lends empirical support to a recent literature emphasizingthe role of bankers incentives for continued sovereign borrowing.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Regional coronary endothelial function is closely related to local early coronary atherosclerosis in patients with mild coronary artery disease: pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary endothelial function is abnormal in patients with established coronary artery disease and was recently shown by MRI to relate to the severity of luminal stenosis. Recent advances in MRI now allow the noninvasive assessment of both anatomic and functional (endothelial function) changes that previously required invasive studies. We tested the hypothesis that abnormal coronary endothelial function is related to measures of early atherosclerosis such as increased coronary wall thickness. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seventeen arteries in 14 healthy adults and 17 arteries in 14 patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease were studied. To measure endothelial function, coronary MRI was performed before and during isometric handgrip exercise, an endothelial-dependent stressor, and changes in coronary cross-sectional area and flow were measured. Black blood imaging was performed to quantify coronary wall thickness and indices of arterial remodeling. The mean stress-induced change in cross-sectional area was significantly higher in healthy adults (13.5%±12.8%, mean±SD, n=17) than in those with mildly diseased arteries (-2.2%±6.8%, P<0.0001, n=17). Mean coronary wall thickness was lower in healthy subjects (0.9±0.2 mm) than in patients with coronary artery disease (1.4±0.3 mm, P<0.0001). In contrast to healthy subjects, stress-induced changes in cross-sectional area, a measure of coronary endothelial function, correlated inversely with coronary wall thickness in patients with coronary artery disease (r=-0.73, P=0.0008). CONCLUSIONS: There is an inverse relationship between coronary endothelial function and local coronary wall thickness in patients with coronary artery disease but not in healthy adults. These findings demonstrate that local endothelial-dependent functional changes are related to the extent of early anatomic atherosclerosis in mildly diseased arteries. This combined MRI approach enables the anatomic and functional investigation of early coronary disease.

Un témoin latin du Protévangile de Jacques: l'homélie Postulatis filiae Ierusalem en l'honneur de sainte Anne (BHL 483-485)

L'article s'inscrit dans une recherche sur la survie du Protévangile de Jacques en latin. Il contient l'édition critique et la traduction d'une homélie pour la fête de sainte Anne, qui combine le début du Protévangile (ch. 1-4) et le début du De Nativitate Mariae (ch. 1-5 ). L'homélie se compose de trois parties. (1) un préambule (<pilcrow> 1-6) ; (2) un récit sur Anne et Joachim, qui associe les deux sources précitées (<pilcrow> 7-29), (3) une péroraison (<pilcrow> 30-34 ). Les manuscrits l'ont conservée sous des formes plus ou moins complètes et remaniées. Certains la transmettent comme légende d'Anne au sein de la Legenda Aurea de Jacques de Voragine. La plupart son t des recueils liturgiques, contenant l'office et les lectures pour la fête d'Anne. Dans un cas, l'homélie a été transformée et fournit des leçons pour la fête de la Conception de la Vierge. L'auteur de l'homélie s'adresse à une communauté de moniales qui lui ont demandé de traduire en latin un « petit livre grec - qui n'est autre que le Protévangile. Le texte a dû être composé à Chartres ou dans les environs immédiats de cette ville, durant les premières années du XIIIe siècle Son origine est liée à l'institution dans l'église de Chartres d'une fête en l'honneur de sainte Anne. Cette innovation liturgique s'explique par la donation d'une relique- la tête de la sainte - acquise par Louis de Blois et provenant du butin enlevé à Constantinople lors de la conquête de la ville par les Latins (1204).

Scripta varia

Ordonnances et pièces diverses relatives au gouvernement du royaume, aux rapports de Philippe le Bel avec le Saint Siège, au grand schisme etc. F. 1, De origine singularum gentium,F. 104v, Notes sur divers événements du règne de Charles VI,F. 120, Glosa abbatis Joachim super libro Cirilli, F. 131v, Visio Johannis heremite, F. 137, Pavo, F. 140, Vincentii Ferrarii epistola de Antichristo, F. 167, Ordre de procéder en la ville et viconté de Paris, F. 194, Stilus curie parlamenti, editus per G. de Brolio, F. 255, Divers arrêts du Parlement,

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Estimating the net contribution of interleukin-28B variation to spontaneous hepatitis C virus clearance.

The identification of associations between interleukin-28B (IL-28B) variants and the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) raises the issues of causality and the net contribution of host genetics to the trait. To estimate more precisely the net effect of IL-28B genetic variation on HCV clearance, we optimized genotyping and compared the host contributions in multiple- and single-source cohorts to control for viral and demographic effects. The analysis included individuals with chronic or spontaneously cleared HCV infections from a multiple-source cohort (n = 389) and a single-source cohort (n = 71). We performed detailed genotyping in the coding region of IL-28B and searched for copy number variations to identify the genetic variant or haplotype carrying the strongest association with viral clearance. This analysis was used to compare the effects of IL-28B variation in the two cohorts. Haplotypes characterized by carriage of the major alleles at IL-28B single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were highly overrepresented in individuals with spontaneous clearance versus those with chronic HCV infections (66.1% versus 38.6%, P = 6 × 10(-9) ). The odds ratios for clearance were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.0] and 3.9 (95% CI = 1.5-10.2) in the multiple- and single-source cohorts, respectively. Protective haplotypes were in perfect linkage (r(2) = 1.0) with a nonsynonymous coding variant (rs8103142). Copy number variants were not detected. We identified IL-28B haplotypes highly predictive of spontaneous HCV clearance. The high linkage disequilibrium between IL-28B SNPs indicates that association studies need to be complemented by functional experiments to identify single causal variants. The point estimate for the genetic effect was higher in the single-source cohort, which was used to effectively control for viral diversity, sex, and coinfections and, therefore, offered a precise estimate of the net host genetic contribution.