Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Clustering of related individuals in a population of the Australian lizard, Egernia frerei

Stable social aggregations are rarely recorded in lizards, but have now been reported from several species in the Australian scincid genus Egernia. Most of those examples come from species using rock crevice refuges that are relatively easy to observe. But for many other Egernia species that occupy different habitats and are more secretive, it is hard to gather the observational data needed to deduce their social structure. Therefore, we used genotypes at six polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci of 229 individuals of Egernia frerei, trapped in 22 sampling sites over 3500 ha of eucalypt forest on Fraser Island, Australia. Each sampling site contained 15 trap locations in a 100 x 50 m grid. We estimated relatedness among pairs of individuals and found that relatedness was higher within than between sites. Relatedness of females within sites was higher than relatedness of males, and was higher than relatedness between males and females. Within sites we found that juvenile lizards were highly related to other juveniles and to adults trapped at the same location, or at adjacent locations, but relatedness decreased with increasing trap separation. We interpreted the results as suggesting high natal philopatry among juvenile lizards and adult females. This result is consistent with stable family group structure previously reported in rock dwelling Egernia species, and suggests that social behaviour in this genus is not habitat driven.

El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Various authors have suggested a general predictive value of climatic indices of El Nino/Southem Oscillation events as indicators of outbreaks of arbovirus disease, particularly Ross River virus in Australia. By analyzing over 100 years of historical outbreak data on Ross River virus disease, our data indicate that, although high Southern Oscillation Index and La Nina conditions are potentially important predictors for the Murray Darling River region, this is not the case for the other four ecological zones in Australia. Our study, therefore, cautions against overgeneralization and suggests that, since climate and weather exert different influences and have different biological implications for the multiplicity of vectors involved, it is logical that predictors should be heterogeneous.

Population structure of the peridomestic mosquito Ochlerotatus notoscriptus in Australia

Ochlerotatus notoscriptus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the predominant peridomestic mosquito in Australia where it is the primary vector of dog heartworm, Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy), and a potentially important vector of arboviruses (Barmah Forest, Ross River) with geographical variation of vector competence. Although widespread, Oc. notoscriptus has low dispersal ability, so it may have isolated subpopulations. The identification of gene flow barriers may assist in understanding arbovirus epidemiology and disease risk, and for developing control strategies for this species. We investigated the population structure of Oc. notoscriptus from 17 sites around Australia, using up to 31 putative allozyme loci, 11 of which were polymorphic. We investigated the effect of larval environment and adult morphology on genetic variation. At least five subpopulations were found, four in New South Wales (NSW) and one unique to Darwin. Perth samples appear to be a product of recent colonization from the Australian east coast. For NSW sites, a Mantel test revealed an isolation by distance effect and spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed an area of effective gene flow of 67 km, which is high given the limited dispersal ability of this species. No consistent difference was observed between 'urban' and 'sylvan' habitats, which suggests frequent movement between these sites. However, a finer-scaled habitat study at Darwin revealed small but significant allele frequency differences, including for Gpi. No fixed allozyme differences were detected for sex, size, integument colour or the colour of species-diagnostic pale scales on the scutum. The domestic habit of Oc. notoscriptus and assisted dispersal have helped to homogenize this species geographically but population structure is still detectable on several levels associated with geographical variation of vector competence.

Ecology and evolution of primate colour vision

More than one hundred years ago, Grant Allen suggested that colour vision in primates, birds and insects evolved as an adaptation for foraging on colourful advertisements of plants-fruits and flowers. Recent studies have shown that well developed colour vision appeared long before fruits and flowers evolved. Thus, colour vision is generally beneficial for many animals, not only for those eating colourful food. Primates are the only placental mammals that have trichromatic colour vision. This may indicate either that trichromacy is particularly useful for primates or that primates are unique among placental mammals in their ability to utilise the signals of three spectrally distinct types of cones or both. Because fruits are an important component of the primate diet, primate trichromacy could have evolved as a specific adaptation for foraging on fruits. Alternatively, primate trichromacy could have evolved as an adaptation for many visual tasks. Comparative studies of mammalian eyes indicate that primates are the only placental mammals that have in their retina a pre-existing neural machinery capable of utilising the signals of an additional spectral type of cone. Thus, the failure of non-primate placental mammals to evolve trichromacy can be explained by constraints imposed on the wiring of retinal neurones.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Ecophysiology of the marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula (Oscillatoriaceae) in Moreton Bay, Australia

Large blooms of the marine cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in Moreton Bay, Australia (27 degrees 05'S, 153 degrees 08'E) have been re-occurring for several years. A bloom was studied in Deception Bay (Northern Moreton Bay) in detail over the period January-March 2000. In situ data loggers and field sampling characterised various environmental parameters before and during the L. majuscula bloom. Various ecophysiological experiments were conducted on L. majuscula collected in the field and transported to the laboratory, including short-term (2h) C-14 incorporation rates and long-term (7 days) pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry assessments of photosynthetic capacity. The effects of L. majuscula on various seagrasses in the bloom region were also assessed with repeated biomass sampling. The bloom commenced in January 2000 following usual December rainfall events, water temperatures in excess of 24 degrees C and high light conditions. This bloom expanded rapidly from 0 to a maximum extent of 8 km(2) over 55 days with an average biomass of 210 g(dw)(-1) m(-2) in late February, followed by a rapid decline in early April. Seagrass biomass, especially Syringodium isoetifolium, was found to decline in areas of dense L. majuscula accumulation. Dissolved and total nutrient concentrations did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) preceding or during the bloom. However, water samples from creeks discharging into the study region indicated elevated concentrations of total iron (2.7-80.6 mu M) and dissolved organic carbon (2.5-24.7 mg L-1), associated with low pH values (3.8-6.7). C-14 incorporation rates by L. majuscula were significantly (P < 0.05) elevated by additions of iron (5 mu M Fe), an organic chelator, ethylenediaminetetra-acetic acid (5 mu M EDTA) and phosphorus (5 mu M PO4-3). Photosynthetic capacity measured with PAM fluorometry was also stimulated by various nutrient additions, but not significantly (P > 0.05). These results suggest that the L. majuscula bloom may have been stimulated by bioavailable iron, perhaps complexed by dissolved organic carbon. The rapid bloom expansion observed may then have been sustained by additional inputs of nutrients (N and P) and iron through sediment efflux, stimulated by redox changes due to decomposing L. majuscula mats. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of marine reserve protection on the mud crap Scylla serrata in a sex-biased fishery in subtropical Australia

The impact of sex-biased fishing and marine reserve protection on the mud crab Scylla serrata was examined by comparing the catch rates (catch-per-unit-effort, CPUE), mean size, sex ratios and movement of crabs in 2 coastal marine reserves (1.9 and 5.7 km(2)) and 4 fished non-reserve sites in subtropical Australia. Five years after closure, both marine reserves supported higher catch rates and a larger mean size of S. serrata than non-reserve sites. Males dominated catches of S. serrata in both marine reserves, where CPUE was at least twice as high within the reserves compared to non-reserve sites. Male crabs were also 10% larger in the reserves compared to adjacent fished areas, and of the total male catch, over 70% were equal to or greater than legal size compared to less than 50% outside the reserves. The sex ratio of S. serrata was skewed towards females in all nonreserve sites, which was most likely a result of the ban on taking female S. serrata in Moreton Bay. As only male crabs of >= 15 cm CW made up the S. serrata fishery in Moreton Bay, sex ratios of mature male and female crabs were examined, revealing a strong skew (2:1) towards mature males in both marine reserves. Of the 472 S. serrata captured in this study, 338 were tagged in the reserves in order to document movement of the crabs between the reserve and non-reserve sites. Of the 37 recaptured crabs, 73% were recorded inside the reserves, with some spillover (i.e. cross-boundary movement) of crabs recorded in fished areas. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of small (< 6 km(2)) marine reserves for sex-biased exploited fisheries species.

Mapping and characterising subtropical estuarine landscapes using aerial photography and GIS for potential application in wildlife conservation and management

Coarse-resolution thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data and implemented in GIS play an important role in coastal and marine conservation, research and management. Here, we describe an approach for fine-resolution mapping of land-cover types using aerial photography and ancillary GIs and ground data in a large (100 x 35 km) subtropical estuarine system (Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia). We have developed and implemented a classification scheme representing 24 coastal (subtidal, intertidal. mangrove, supratidal and terrestrial) cover types relevant to the ecology of estuarine animals, nekton and shorebirds. The accuracy of classifications of the intertidal and subtidal cover types, as indicated by the agreement between the mapped (predicted) and reference (ground) data, was 77-88%, depending on the zone and level of generalization required. The variability and spatial distribution of habitat mosaics (landscape types) across the mapped environment were assessed using K-means clustering and validated with Classification and Regression Tree models. Seven broad landscape types could be distinguished and ways of incorporating the information on landscape composition into site-specific conservation and field research are discussed. This research illustrates the importance and potential applications of fine-resolution mapping for conservation and management of estuarine habitats and their terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in coastal Queensland, Australia: disparate sites, common factors

During the last decade there has been a significant rise in observations of blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula along the east coast of Queensland, Australia. Whether the increase in cyanobacterial abundance is a biological indicator of widespread water quality degradation or also a function of other environmental change is unknown. A bioassay approach was used to assesses the potential for runoff from various land uses to stimulate productivity of L. majuscula. In Moreton Bay, L. majuscula productivity was significantly (p < 0.05) stimulated by soil extracts, which were high in phosphorus, iron and organic carbon. Productivity of L. majuscula from the Great Barrier Reef was also significantly (p < 0.05) elevated by iron and phosphorus rich extracts, in this case seabird guano adjacent to the bloom site. Hence, it is possible that other L. majuscula blooms are a result of similar stimulating factors (iron, phosphorus and organic carbon), delivered through different mechanisms. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using nitrogen stable isotope ratios (delta N-15) of macroalgae to determine the effectiveness of sewage upgrades: changes in the extent of sewage plumes over four years in Moreton Bay, Australia

Nitrogen loading to aquatic ecosystems from sewage is recognised worldwide as a growing problem. The use of nitrogen stable isotopes as a means of discerning sewage nitrogen in the environment has been used annually by the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in Moreton Bay (Australia) since 1997 when the technique was first developed. This (sewage plume mapping) technique, which measures the delta(15)N isotopic signature of the red macroalga Catenella nipae after incubation in situ, has demonstrated a large reduction in the magnitude and spatial extent of sewage nitrogen within Moreton Bay over the past 5 years. This observed reduction coincides with considerable upgrades to the nitrogen removal efficacy at several sewage treatment plants within the region. This paper describes the observed changes and evaluates whether they can be attributed to the treatment upgrades. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Water quality monitoring: A combined approach to investigate gradients of change in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

For the managers of a region as large as the Great Barrier Reef, it is a challenge to develop a cost effective monitoring program, with appropriate temporal and spatial resolution to detect changes in water quality. The current study compares water quality data (phytoplankton abundance and water clarity) from remote sensing with field sampling (continuous underway profiles of water quality and fixed site sampling) at different spatial scales in the Great Barrier Reef north of Mackay (20 degrees S). Five transects (20-30 km long) were conducted from clean oceanic water to the turbid waters adjacent to the mainland. The different data sources demonstrated high correlations when compared on a similar spatial scale (18 fixed sites). However, each data source also contributed unique information that could not be obtained by the other techniques. A combination of remote sensing, underway sampling and fixed stations will deliver the best spatial and temporal monitoring of water quality in the Great Barrier Reef. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The value of patches of intertidal seagrass to prawns depends on their proximity to mangroves

Penaeid prawns were sampled with a small seine net to test whether catches of postlarvae and juveniles in seagrass were affected by the distance of the seagrass (mainly Zostera capricorni) from mangroves and the density of the seagrass in a subtropical marine embayment. Sampling was replicated on the western and eastern sides of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Information on catches was combined with broad-scale spatial information on the distribution of habitats to estimate the contribution of four different categories of habitat (proximal dense seagrass, distal dense seagrass, proximal sparse seagrass, distal sparse seagrass) to the overall population of small prawns in these regions of Moreton Bay. The abundance of Penaeus plebejus and Metapenaeus bennettae was significantly and consistently greater in dense seagrass proximal to mangroves than in other types of habitat. Additionally, sparse seagrass close to mangroves supported more of these species than dense seagrass farther away, indicating that the role of spatial arrangement of habitats was more important than the effects of structural complexity alone. In contrast, the abundance of P. esculentus tended to be greatest in sparse seagrass distal from mangroves compared with the other habitats. The scaling up of the results from different seagrass types suggests that proximal seagrass beds on both sides of Moreton Bay provide by far the greatest contribution of juvenile M. bennettae and P. plebejus to the overall populations in the Bay.