A Consistent Nonparametric Bootstrap Test of Exogeneity

This paper proposes a novel way of testing exogeneity of an explanatory variable without any parametric assumptions in the presence of a "conditional" instrumental variable. A testable implication is derived that if an explanatory variable is endogenous, the conditional distribution of the outcome given the endogenous variable is not independent of its instrumental variable(s). The test rejects the null hypothesis with probability one if the explanatory variable is endogenous and it detects alternatives converging to the null at a rate n..1=2:We propose a consistent nonparametric bootstrap test to implement this testable implication. We show that the proposed bootstrap test can be asymptotically justi.ed in the sense that it produces asymptotically correct size under the null of exogeneity, and it has unit power asymptotically. Our nonparametric test can be applied to the cases in which the outcome is generated by an additively non-separable structural relation or in which the outcome is discrete, which has not been studied in the literature.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Older persons' perceptions of general practitioner or specialist primary care physicians : same point of view?

BACKGROUND: Identification of a Primary Care Physician (PCP) by older patients is considered as essential for the coordination of care, but the extent to which identified PCPs are general practitioners or specialists is unknown. This study described older patients' experiences with their PCP and tested the hypothesis of differences between patients who identify a specialist as their PCP (SP PCP) and those who turn to a general practitioner (GP PCP). METHODS: In 2012, a cross-sectional postal survey on care was conducted in the 68+ year old population of the canton of Vaud. Data was provided by 2,276 participants in the ongoing Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65+), a study of those born between 1934 and 1943, and by 998 persons from an additional sample drawn to include the population outside of Lausanne or born before 1934. RESULTS: Participants expressed favourable perceptions, at rates exceeding 75% for most items. However, only 38% to 51% responded positively for out-of-hours availability, easy access and at home visits, likelihood of prescribing expensive medication if needed, and doctors' awareness of over-the-counter drugs. 12.0% had an SP PCP, in 95.9% specialised in a discipline implying training in internal medicine. Bivariate and multivariate analyses did not result in significant differences between GP and SP PCPs regarding perceptions of accessibility/availability, doctor-patient relationship, information and continuity of care, prevention, spontaneous use of the emergency department or ambulatory care utilisation. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences of old patients were mostly positive despite some lack in reported hearing, memory testing, and colorectal cancer screening. We found no differences between GP and SP PCP groups.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Testing low-altitude infrared digital photography from a mini-UAV to retrieve information for biological conservation

Satellite remote sensing imagery is used for forestry, conservation and environmental applications, but insufficient spatial resolution, and, in particular, unavailability of images at the precise timing required for a given application, often prevent achieving a fully operational stage. Airborne remote sensing has the advantage of custom-tuned sensors, resolution and timing, but its price prevents using it as a routine technique for the mentioned fields. Some Unmanned Aerial Vehicles might provide a “third way” solution as low-cost techniques for acquiring remotely sensed information, under close control of the end-user, albeit at the expense of lower quality instrumentation and instability. This report evaluates a light remote sensing system based on a remotely-controlled mini-UAV (ATMOS-3) equipped with a color infra-red camera (VEGCAM-1) designed and operated by CATUAV. We conducted a testing mission over a Mediterranean landscape dominated by an evergreen woodland of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) and (Holm) oak (Quercus ilex) in the Montseny National Park (Catalonia, NE Spain). We took advantage of state-of-the-art ortho-rectified digital aerial imagery (acquired by the Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya over the area during the previous year) and used it as quality reference. In particular, we paid attention to: 1) Operationality of flight and image acquisition according to a previously defined plan; 2) Radiometric and geometric quality of the images; and 3) Operational use of the images in the context of applications. We conclude that the system has achieved an operational stage regarding flight activities, although with meteorological limits set by wind speed and turbulence. Appropriate landing areas can be sometimes limiting also, but the system is able to land on small and relatively rough terrains such as patches of grassland or short matorral, and we have operated the UAV as far as 7 km from the control unit. Radiometric quality is sufficient for interactive analysis, but probably insufficient for automated processing. A forthcoming camera is supposed to greatly improve radiometric quality and consistency. Conventional GPS positioning through time synchronization provides coarse orientation of the images, with no roll information.

Maximal Physiological Parameters during Partial Body-Weight Support Treadmill Testing.

PURPOSE: This study investigated maximal cardiometabolic response while running in a lower body positive pressure treadmill (antigravity treadmill (AG)), which reduces body weight (BW) and impact. The AG is used in rehabilitation of injuries but could have potential for high-speed running, if workload is maximally elevated. METHODS: Fourteen trained (nine male) runners (age 27 ± 5 yr; 10-km personal best, 38.1 ± 1.1 min) completed a treadmill incremental test (CON) to measure aerobic capacity and heart rate (V˙O2max and HRmax). They completed four identical tests (48 h apart, randomized order) on the AG at BW of 100%, 95%, 90%, and 85% (AG100 to AG85). Stride length and rate were measured at peak velocities (Vpeak). RESULTS: V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) was similar across all conditions (men: CON = 66.6 (3.0), AG100 = 65.6 (3.8), AG95 = 65.0 (5.4), AG90 = 65.6 (4.5), and AG85 = 65.0 (4.8); women: CON = 63.0 (4.6), AG100 = 61.4 (4.3), AG95 = 60.7 (4.8), AG90 = 61.4 (3.3), and AG85 = 62.8 (3.9)). Similar results were found for HRmax, except for AG85 in men and AG100 and AG90 in women, which were lower than CON. Vpeak (km·h) in men was 19.7 (0.9) in CON, which was lower than every other condition: AG100 = 21.0 (1.9) (P < 0.05), AG95 = 21.4 (1.8) (P < 0.01), AG90 = 22.3 (2.1) (P < 0.01), and AG85 = 22.6 (1.6) (P < 0.001). In women, Vpeak (km·h) was similar between CON (17.8 (1.1) ) and AG100 (19.3 (1.0)) but higher at AG95 = 19.5 (0.4) (P < 0.05), AG90 = 19.5 (0.8) (P < 0.05), and AG85 = 21.2 (0.9) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The AG can be used at maximal exercise intensities at BW of 85% to 95%, reaching faster running speeds than normally feasible. The AG could be used for overspeed running programs at the highest metabolic response levels.

Revisiting the diacylglycerol-induced insulin resistance hypothesis.

Obesity is associated with skeletal muscle insulin resistance, which is a crucial step in the development of type 2 diabetes. Among the mechanisms by which obesity may lead to insulin resistance, lipotoxicity is one of the hypotheses being explored; others include inflammation or the oxidative stress hypotheses. This review focuses on the role of diacylglycerols (DAG), a family of lipid metabolites implicated in the pathogenesis of lipotoxicity and insulin resistance. While recent studies report contradictory results in humans with regard to the importance of DAG-induced insulin resistance in skeletal muscle, other current literature highlight a potential role for DAG as signalling molecules. This review will discuss possible hypotheses explaining these contradictory results and the need to explore further the role of DAG in human metabolism.

Use of Treponema pallidum PCR in Testing of Ulcers for Diagnosis of Primary Syphilis(1.).

Treponema pallidum PCR (Tp-PCR) has been noted as a valid method for diagnosing syphilis. We compared Tp-PCR to a combination of darkfield microscopy (DFM), the reference method, and serologic testing in a cohort of 273 patients from France and Switzerland and found the diagnostic accuracy of Tp-PCR was higher than that for DFM.

South American monkeys in the development and testing of malarial vaccines - a review

South American Aoutus an d Saimiri monkeys, which are susceptible to infection with human malarias, have been used to develop models for the testing of huma malaria vaccines. Studies indicate that blood-stage and sporozoite vaccines can be tested in these monkeys using appropriate strains of parasites.

Development of an optimized methodology for tensile testing of carbon steels in hydrogen environment

The study was performed at OCAS, the Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal for the Industry market. The major aim of this research was to obtain an optimized tensile testing methodology with in-situ H-charging to reveal the hydrogen embrittlement in various high strength steels. The second aim of this study has been the mechanical characterization of the hydrogen effect on hight strength carbon steels with varying microstructure, i.e. ferrite-martensite and ferrite-bainite grades. The optimal parameters for H-charging - which influence the tensile test results (sample geometry type of electrolyte, charging methods effect of steel type, etc.) - were defined and applied to Slow Strain Rate testing, Incremental Step Loading and Constant Load Testing. To better understand the initiation and propagation of cracks during tensile testing with in-situ H-charging, and to make the correlation with crystallographic orientation, some materials have been analyzed in the SEM in combination with the EBSD technique. The introduction of a notch on the tensile samples permits to reach a significantly improved reproducibility of the results. Comparing the various steel grades reveals that Dual Phase (ferrite-martensite) steels are more sensitive to hydrogen induced cracking than the FB (ferritic-bainitic) ones. This higher sensitivity to hydrogen was found back in the reduced failure times, increased creep rates and enhanced crack initiation (SEM) for the Dual Phase steels in comparison with the FB steels.