A new pattern for historical geography: working with enthusiast communities and public history

This paper argues for the adoption of participatory approaches in historical geography, drawing on the author's experience in working with enthusiast communities in the UK in the context of collaborative research with the Science Museum and ideas of public history and geography.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

La Niña 2016/2017: historical impact analysis

El Niño conditions developed in the tropical Pacific during the latter half of 2015, peaking in December 2015 as one of the strongest El Niño events on record, comparable with the 1997-98 “El Niño of the century”. Conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to return to normal over the coming months, with the potential to transition into La Niña conditions during 2016-17. If this was to occur it would act as a further strong perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system and lead to further significant socio-economic impacts affecting many sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy. This report analyses La Niña events over the last 37 years of the satellite era (1979-present) and aims to identify regions where there is an increased likelihood of impacts occurring. It is important to note that this analysis is based on past analogous events and is not a prediction for this year. No two La Niña events will be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs considerably. More importantly, no two La Niña events lead to the same impacts – other local physical and social factors come into play. Therefore, the exact timings, locations and magnitudes of impacts should be interpreted with caution and this should be accounted for in any preparedness measures that are taken. This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Short report: Historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: ""Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae."" Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information.

The Tnt1 family member Retrosol copy number and structure disclose retrotransposon diversification in different Solanum species

Eukaryotic genome expansion/retraction caused by LTR-retrotransposon activity is dependent on the expression of full length copies to trigger efficient transposition and recombination-driven events. The Tnt1 family of retrotransposons has served as a model to evaluate the diversity among closely related elements within Solanaceae species and found that members of the family vary mainly in their U3 region of the long terminal repeats (LTRs). Recovery of a full length genomic copy of Retrosol was performed through a PCR-based approach from wild potato, Solanum oplocense. Further characterization focusing on both LTR sequences of the amplified copy allowed estimating an approximate insertion time at 2 million years ago thus supporting the occurrence of transposition cycles after genus divergence. Copy number of Tnt1-like elements in Solanum species were determined through genomic quantitative PCR whereby results sustain that Retrosol in Solanum species is a low copy number retrotransposon (1-4 copies) while Retrolyc1 has an intermediate copy number (38 copies) in S. peruvianum. Comparative analysis of retrotransposon content revealed no correlation between genome size or ploidy level and Retrosol copy number. The tetraploid cultivated potato with a cellular genome size of 1,715 Mbp harbours similar copy number per monoploid genome than other diploid Solanum species (613-884 Mbp). Conversely, S. peruvianum genome (1,125 Mbp) has a higher copy number. These results point towards a lineage specific dynamic flux regarding the history of amplification/activity of Tnt1-like elements in the genome of Solanum species.

Independent fusions and recent origins of sex chromosomes in the evolution and diversification of glass knife fishes (Eigenmannia)

The genus Eigenmannia comprises several species groups that display a surprising variety of diploid chromosome numbers and sex-determining systems. In this study, hypotheses regarding phylogenetic relationships and karyotype evolution were investigated using a combination of molecular and cytogenetic methods. Phylogenetic relationships were analyzed for 11 cytotypes based on sequences from five mitochondrial DNA regions. Parsimony-based character mapping of sex chromosomes confirms previous suggestions of multiple origins of sex chromosomes. Molecular cytogenetic analyses involved chromosome painting using probes derived from whole sex chromosomes from two taxa that were hybridized to metaphases of their respective sister cytotypes. These analyses showed that a multiple XY system evolved recently (<7 mya) by fusion. Furthermore, one of the chromosomes that fused to form the neo-Y chromosome is fused independently to another chromosome in the sister cytotype. This may constitute an efficient post-mating barrier and might imply a direct function of sex chromosomes in the speciation processes in Eigenmannia. The other chromosomal sex-determination system investigated is shown to have differentiated by an accumulation of heterochromatin on the X chromosome. This has occurred in the past 0.6 my, and is the most recent chromosomal sex-determining system described to date. These results show that the evolution of sex-determining systems can proceed very rapidly. Heredity (2011) 106, 391-400; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.82; published online 23 June 2010

Genetic structure, phylogeny, and biogeography of Brazilian eyelid-less lizards of genera Calyptommatus and Nothobachia (Squamata, Gymnophthalmidae) as inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences

Calyptommatus and Nothobachia genera of gymnophthalmid lizards are restricted to sandy open habitats on Sao Francisco River margins, northeastern Brazil. Phylogenetic relationships and geographic distribution of the four recognized species of Calyptommatus were analyzed from partial mitochondrial cyt b, 12S, and 16S rRNA genes sequencing, taking allopatric populations of the monotypic Nothobachia ablephara as the outgroup. In Calyptommatus a basal split separated C. sinebrachiatus, a species restricted to the eastern bank of the river, from the three other species. In this clade, C. confusionibus, found on western margin, was recovered as the sister group of the two other species, C. leiolepis and C. nicterus, from opposite margins. According to approximate date estimations, C. sinebrachiatus would have separated from the other congeneric species by 4.4-6.5 my, and C. nicterus, also from eastern bank, would be diverging by 1.8-2.6 my from C. leiolepis, the sister species on the opposite margin. C. confusionibus and C. leiolepis, both from western sandy areas, would be differentiating by 2.8-5.0 my. Divergence times of about 3.0-4.0 my were estimated for allopatric populations of Nothobachia restricted to western margin. Significant differences in 16S rRNA secondary structure relatively to other vertebrates are reported. Distinct evolutionary patterns are proposed for different taxa in those sandy areas, probably related to historical changes in the course of Sao Francisco River. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Out of Amazonia again and again: episodic crossing of the Andes promotes diversification in a lowland forest flycatcher

Most Neotropical lowland forest taxa occur exclusively on one side of the Andes despite the availability of appropriate habitat on both sides. Almost all molecular phylogenies and phylogenetic analyses of species assemblages (i.e. area cladograms) have supported the hypothesis that Andean uplift during the Late Pliocene created a vicariant barrier affecting lowland lineages in the region. However, a few widespread plant and animal species occurring in lowland forests on both sides of the Andes challenge the generality of this hypothesis. To understand the role of the Andes in the history of such organisms, we reconstructed the phylogeographic history of a widespread Neotropical flycatcher (Mionectes oleagineus) in the context of the other four species in the genus. A molecular phylogeny based on nuclear and mitochondrial sequences unambiguously showed an early basal split between montane and lowland Mionectes. The phylogeographic reconstruction of lowland taxa revealed a complex history, with multiple cases in which geographically proximate populations do not represent sister lineages. Specifically, three populations of M. oleagineus west of the Andes do not comprise a monophyletic clade; instead, each represents an independent lineage with origins east of the Andes. Divergence time estimates suggest that at least two cross-Andean dispersal events post-date Andean uplift.

Phylogeny and ecology determine morphological structure in a snake assemblage in the central Brazilian Cerrado

To investigate the role of ecological and historical factors in the organization of communities, we describe the ecomorphological structure of an assemblage of snakes (61 species in six families) in the Cerrado (a savanna-like grassland) of Distrito Federal, Brazil. These snakes vary in habits, with some being fossorial, cryptozoic, terrestrial, semi-aquatic, or arboreal. Periods of activity also vary. A multivariate analysis identified distinct morphological groups associated with patterns of resource use. We report higher niche diversification compared to snakes in the Caatinga (a semi-arid region in northeastern Brazil), with fossorial and cryptozoic species occupying morphological space that is not occupied in the Caatinga. Monte Carlo permutations from canonical phylogenetic ordination revealed a significant phylogenetic effect on morphology for Colubridae, Colubrinae, Viperidae, Elapidae, and Boidae indicating that morphological divergence occurred in the distant past. We conclude that phylogeny is the most important factor determining structure of this Neotropical assemblage. Nevertheless, our results also suggest a strong ecological component characterizes a peculiar snake fauna.

Tenacity and silk investment of two orb weavers: considerations about diversification of the Araneoidea

Orbiculariae consists of two major clades: the cribellate Deinopidea and the much more diverse ecribellate Araneoidea. It has been hypothesized that the higher diversity of Araneoidea is a consequence of the superiority of the viscid orb web. However, this explanation seems incomplete: for example, cribellate silk may perform better than viscid silk in some contexts. Here, we consider the hypothesis that the diversification of Araneoidea was facilitated by changes in microhabitat occupation behavior due to the cheaper viscid orb web. In the present work we investigate the idea that the reduction in site tenacity caused by the emergence of the viscid orb web has led to an increase in the exploration of different resources and to a greater diversification of the Arancoidea through the evolutionary time. To test this idea, we evaluated the response of one cribellate orb web spider (Zosis geniculata Olivier 1789, Uloboridae) and one ecribellate orb web spider (Metazygia rogenhoferi Keyserling 1878, Arancidae) to abrupt prey absence. The changes in site tenacity and the day-to-day investment in web silk were evaluated. Spiders with three-dimensional webs tend to exhibit greater site tenacity than spiders making orb webs. Zosis geniculata and M. rogenhoferi show similar site tenacity when prey is ample. When prey is unavailable, the tenacity of the cribellate species increases while the tenacity of the ecribellate remains unchanged, and the silk investment of both species decreases. However, this decrease in silk investment is more extensive in Z. geniculata. These results coincide with the idea that a less costly ecribellate orb web leads to a lower tenacity and suggest that more frequent microhabitat abandonment in a context of insect radiation (Neiptera) leads to more diverse and opportunistic exploration of microhabitats that, in the long term, may be one explanation for the greater Araneoidea diversification.

Evolutionary history of Ramphastos toucans: Molecular phylogenetics, temporal diversification, and biogeography

The toucan genus Ramphastos (Piciformes: Ramphastidae) has been a model in the formulation of Neotropical paleobiogeographic hypotheses. Weckstein (2005) reported on the phylogenetic history of this genus based on three mitochondrial genes, but some relationships were weakly supported and one of the subspecies of R. vitellinus (citreolaemus) was unsampled. This study expands on Weckstein (2005) by adding more DNA sequence data (including a nuclear marker) and more samples, including R v. citreolaemus. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods recovered similar trees, with nodes showing high support. A monophyletic R. vitellinus complex was strongly supported as the sister-group to R. brevis. The results also confirmed that the southeastern and northern populations of R. vitellinus ariel are paraphyletic. X v. citreolaemus is sister to the Amazonian subspecies of the vitellinus complex. Using three protein-coding genes (COI, cytochrome-b and ND2) and interval-calibrated nodes under a Bayesian relaxed-clock framework, we infer that ramphastid genera originated in the middle Miocene to early Pliocene, Ramphastos species originated between late Miocene and early Pleistocene, and intra-specific divergences took place throughout the Pleistocene. Parsimony-based reconstruction of ancestral areas indicated that evolution of the four trans-Andean Ramphastos taxa (R. v. citreolaemus, R. a. swainsonii, R. brevis and R. sulfuratus) was associated with four independent dispersals from the cis-Andean region. The last pulse of Andean uplift may have been important for the evolution of R. sulfuratus, whereas the origin of the other trans-Andean Ramphastos taxa is consistent with vicariance due to drying events in the lowland forests north of the Andes. Estimated rates of molecular evolution were higher than the ""standard"" bird rate of 2% substitutions/site/million years for two of the three genes analyzed (cytochrome-b and ND2). (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil`s ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO(2) emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane`s juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane`s bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes Of CO(2) per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity`s potential, plus the capture Of CO(2) released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO(2)/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO(2)/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg Of CO(2) per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.