The evaluation of evidence for exponentially distributed data

C.G.G. Aitken, Q. Shen, R. Jensen and B. Hayes. The evaluation of evidence for exponentially distributed data. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol. 51, no. 12, pp. 5682-5693, 2007.

Os moinhos da Abelheira

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Arquitetura e Urbanismo

Between respectability and disgrace: schismogenesis and the regeneration of inequality, stigma and social exclusion in Limerick

The thesis examines cultural processes underpinning the emergence, institutionalisation and reproduction of class boundaries in Limerick city. The research aims to bring a new understanding to the contemporary context of the city’s urban regeneration programme. Acknowledging and recognising other contemporary studies of division and exclusion, the thesis creates a distinctive approach which focuses on uncovering the cultural roots of inequality, educational disadvantage, stigma and social exclusion and the dynamics of their social reproduction. Using Bateson’s concept of schismogenesis (1953), the thesis looks to the persistent, but fragmented culture of community and develops a heuristic ‘symbolic order of the city’. This is defined as “…a cultural structure, the meaning making aspect of hierarchy, the categorical structures of world understanding, the way Limerick people understand themselves, their local and larger world” (p. 37). This provides a very different departure point for exploring the basis for urban regeneration in Limerick (and everywhere). The central argument is that if we want to understand the present (multiple) crises in Limerick we need to understand the historical, anthropological and recursive processes underpinning ‘generalised patterns of rivalry and conflict’. In addition to exploring the historical roots of status and stigma in Limerick, the thesis explores the mythopoesis of persistent, recurrent narratives and labels that mark the boundaries of the city’s identities. The thesis examines the cultural and social function of ‘slagging’ as a vernacular and highly particularised form of ironic, ritualised and, often, ‘cruel’ medium of communication (often exclusion). This is combined with an etymology of the vocabulary of Limerick slang and its mythological base. By tracing the origins of many normalised patterns of Limerick speech ‘sayings’, which have long since forgotten their roots, the thesis demonstrates how they perform a significant contemporary function in maintaining and reinforcing symbolic mechanisms of inclusion/exclusion. The thesis combines historical and archival data with biographical interviews, ethnographic data married to a deep historical hermeneutic analysis of this political community.

R Markdown: Integrating A Reproducible Analysis Tool into Introductory Statistics

Nolan and Temple Lang argue that “the ability to express statistical computations is an es- sential skill.” A key related capacity is the ability to conduct and present data analysis in a way that another person can understand and replicate. The copy-and-paste workflow that is an artifact of antiquated user-interface design makes reproducibility of statistical analysis more difficult, especially as data become increasingly complex and statistical methods become increasingly sophisticated. R Markdown is a new technology that makes creating fully-reproducible statistical analysis simple and painless. It provides a solution suitable not only for cutting edge research, but also for use in an introductory statistics course. We present experiential and statistical evidence that R Markdown can be used effectively in introductory statistics courses, and discuss its role in the rapidly-changing world of statistical computation.

Persistent Homology Analysis of Brain Artery Trees.

New representations of tree-structured data objects, using ideas from topological data analysis, enable improved statistical analyses of a population of brain artery trees. A number of representations of each data tree arise from persistence diagrams that quantify branching and looping of vessels at multiple scales. Novel approaches to the statistical analysis, through various summaries of the persistence diagrams, lead to heightened correlations with covariates such as age and sex, relative to earlier analyses of this data set. The correlation with age continues to be significant even after controlling for correlations from earlier significant summaries.

Operational scales, sources of finance, and firms’ performance: evidence from Vietnamese longitudinal data

This study investigates a longitudinal dataset consisting of financial and operational data from 37 listed companies listed on Vietnamese stock market, covering the period 2004-13. By performing three main types of regression analysis - pooled OLS, fixed-effect and random-effect regressions - the investigation finds mixed results on the relationships between operational scales, sources of finance and firms' performance, depending on the choice of analytical model and use of independent/dependent variables. In most situation, fixed-effect models appear to be preferable, providing for reasonably consistent results. Toward the end, the paper offers some further explanation about the obtained insights, which reflect the nature of a business environment of a transition economy and an emerging market.

DISCOVERY 2010: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem

The Scotia Sea has been a focus of biological- and physical oceanographic study since the Discovery expeditions in the early 1900s. It is a physically energetic region with some of the highest levels of productivity in the Southern Ocean. It is also a region within which there have been greater than average levels of change in upper water column temperature. We describe the results of three cruises transecting the central Scotia Sea from south to north in consecutive years and covering spring, summer and autumn periods. We also report on some community level syntheses using both current-day and historical data from this region. A wide range of parameters were measured during the field campaigns, covering the physical oceanography of the region, air–sea CO2 fluxes, macro- and micronutrient concentrations, the composition and biomass of the nano-, micro- and mesoplankton communities, and the distribution and biomass of Antarctic krill and mesopelagic fish. Process studies examined the effect of iron-stress on the physiology of primary producers, reproduction and egestion in Antarctic krill and the transfer of stable isotopes between trophic layers, from primary consumers up to birds and seals. Community level syntheses included an examination of the biomass-spectra, food-web modelling, spatial analysis of multiple trophic layers and historical species distributions. The spatial analyses in particular identified two distinct community types: a northern warmer water community and a southern cold community, their boundary being broadly consistent with the position of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). Temperature and ice cover appeared to be the dominant, over-riding factors in driving this pattern. Extensive phytoplankton blooms were a major feature of the surveys, and were persistent in areas such as South Georgia. In situ and bioassay measurements emphasised the important role of iron inputs as facilitators of these blooms. Based on seasonal DIC deficits, the South Georgia bloom was found to contain the strongest seasonal carbon uptake in the ice-free zone of the Southern Ocean. The surveys also encountered low-production, iron-limited regions, a situation more typical of the wider Southern Ocean. The response of primary and secondary consumers to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production was complex. Many of the life-cycles of small pelagic organisms showed a close coupling to the seasonal cycle of food availability. For instance, Antarctic krill showed a dependence on early, non-ice-associated blooms to facilitate early reproduction. Strategies to buffer against environmental variability were also examined, such as the prevalence of multiyear life-cycles and variability in energy storage levels. Such traits were seen to influence the way in which Scotia Sea communities were structured, with biomass levels in the larger size classes being higher than in other ocean regions. Seasonal development also altered trophic function, with the trophic level of higher predators increasing through the course of the year as additional predator-prey interactions emerged in the lower trophic levels. Finally, our studies re-emphasised the role that the simple phytoplankton-krill-higher predator food chain plays in this Southern Ocean region, particularly south of the SACCF. To the north, alternative food chains, such as those involving copepods, macrozooplankton and mesopelagic fish, were increasingly important. Continued ocean warming in this region is likely to increase the prevalence of such alternative such food chains with Antarctic krill predicted to move southwards.

Long-term effects of ocean warming on the prokaryotic community: evidence from the vibrios

The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.

A Longitudinal and Contextual Analysis of Media Representation of Business Ethics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of media representation of business ethics within 62 international newspapers to explore the longitudinal and contextual evolution of business ethics and associated terminology. Levels of coverage and contextual analysis of the content of the articles are used as surrogate measures of the penetration of business ethics concepts into society. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a text mining application based on two samples of data: analysis of 62 national newspapers in 21 countries from 1990 to 2008; analysis of the content of two samples of articles containing the term business ethics (comprised of 100 newspaper articles spread over an 18-year period from a sample of US and UK newspapers). Findings – The paper demonstrates increased coverage of sustainability topics within the media over the last 18 years associated with events such as the Rio Summit. Whilst some peaks are associated with business ethics scandals, the overall coverage remains steady. There is little apparent use in the media of concepts such as corporate citizenship. The academic community and company ethical codes appear to adopt a wider definition of business ethics more akin to that associated with sustainability, in comparison with the focus taken by the media, especially in the USA. Coverage demonstrates clear regional bias and contextual analysis of the articles in the UK and USA also shows interesting parallels and divergences in the media representation of business ethics. Originality/value – A promising avenue to explore how the evolution of sustainability issues including business ethics can be tracked within a societal context.

Culture phenotypes of genomically and geographically diverse Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates from different hosts

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis causes paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in ruminants in most countries. Historical data suggest substantial differences in culturability of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates from small ruminants and cattle; however, a systematic comparison of culture media and isolates from different countries and hosts has not been undertaken. Here, 35 field isolates from the United States, Spain, Northern Ireland, and Australia were propagated in Bactec 12B medium and Middlebrook 7H10 agar, genomically characterized, and subcultured to Lowenstein-Jensen (LJ), Herrold's egg yolk (HEY), modified Middlebrook 7H10, Middlebrook 7H11, and Watson-Reid (WR) agars, all with and without mycobactin J and some with sodium pyruvate. Fourteen genotypes of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis were represented as determined by BstEII IS900 and IS1311 restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. There was no correlation between genotype and overall culturability, although most S strains tended to grow poorly on HEY agar. Pyruvate was inhibitory to some isolates. All strains grew on modified Middlebrook 7H10 agar but more slowly and less prolifically on LJ agar. Mycobactin J was required for growth on all media except 7H11 agar, but growth was improved by the addition of mycobactin J to 7H11 agar. WR agar supported the growth of few isolates. The differences in growth of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis that have historically been reported in diverse settings have been strongly influenced by the type of culture medium used. When an optimal culture medium, such as modified Middlebrook 7H10 agar, is used, very little difference between the growth phenotypes of diverse strains of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis was observed. This optimal medium is recommended to remove bias in the isolation and cultivation of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis.

New Financial Elites, or Financial Dualism in Historical perspective? An Extended Reply to Folkman, Froud, Johal and Williams

This paper challenges the recent suggestion that a new financial elite has evolved which is able to capture substantial profit shares for itself. Specifically, it questions the assumption that new groups of financial intermediaries have increased in significance primarily because there is evidence that various types of financial speculators have played a similarly extensive role at several junctures of economic development. The paper then develops the alternative hypothesis that, rather than being a recent development, the rise of these financial intermediaries is a cyclical phenomenon which is linked to specific regimes of capital accumulation. The hypothesis is underpinned by historical data from the US National Income and Product Accounts for the period from 1930 to 2000, which suggest that the activities of `mainstream' financial intermediaries have been accompanied by the frequently countercyclical activities of a `speculative' sector of security and commodity brokers. Based on the combination of this qualitative and quantitative evidence, the paper concludes that the rise of a speculative financial sector is a potentially recurrent phenomenon which is linked to periods of economic restructuring and turmoil.

From Negation to Agreement: Revisiting the Problem of Sources for Socio-Historical Linguistics

In this article we review recent work on the history of French negation in relation to three key issues in socio-historical linguistics: identifying appropriate sources, interpreting scant or anomalous data, and interpreting generational differences in historical data. We then turn to a new case study, that of verbal agreement with la plupart, to see whether this can shed fresh light on these issues. We argue that organising data according to the author’s date of birth is methodologically sounder than according to date of publication. We explore the extent to which different genres and text types reflect changing patterns of usage and suggest that additional, different case-studies are required in order to make more secure generalisations about the reliability of different sources.

The nucleus of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. A new shape model and thermophysical analysis

Context. Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is the target of the European Space Agency Rosetta spacecraft rendez-vous mission. Detailed physical characteristation of the comet before arrival is important for mission planning as well as providing a test bed for ground-based observing and data-analysis methods. Aims: To conduct a long-term observational programme to characterize the physical properties of the nucleus of the comet, via ground-based optical photometry, and to combine our new data with all available nucleus data from the literature. Methods: We applied aperture photometry techniques on our imaging data and combined the extracted rotational lightcurves with data from the literature. Optical lightcurve inversion techniques were applied to constrain the spin state of the nucleus and its broad shape. We performed a detailed surface thermal analysis with the shape model and optical photometry by incorporating both into the new Advanced Thermophysical Model (ATPM), along with all available Spitzer 8-24 μm thermal-IR flux measurements from the literature. Results: A convex triangular-facet shape model was determined with axial ratios b/a = 1.239 and c/a = 0.819. These values can vary by as much as 7% in each axis and still result in a statistically significant fit to the observational data. Our best spin state solution has Psid = 12.76137 ± 0.00006 h, and a rotational pole orientated at Ecliptic coordinates λ = 78°(±10°), β = + 58°(±10°). The nucleus phase darkening behaviour was measured and best characterized using the IAU HG system. Best fit parameters are: G = 0.11 ± 0.12 and HR(1,1,0) = 15.31 ± 0.07. Our shape model combined with the ATPM can satisfactorily reconcile all optical and thermal-IR data, with the fit to the Spitzer 24 μm data taken in February 2004 being exceptionally good. We derive a range of mutually-consistent physical parameters for each thermal-IR data set, including effective radius, geometric albedo, surface thermal inertia and roughness fraction. Conclusions: The overall nucleus dimensions are well constrained and strongly imply a broad nucleus shape more akin to comet 9P/Tempel 1, rather than the highly elongated or "bi-lobed" nuclei seen for comets 103P/Hartley 2 or 8P/Tuttle. The derived low thermal inertia of

Interpreting pedestrian behaviour by visualising and clustering movement data

Recent technological advances have increased the quantity of movement data being recorded. While valuable knowledge can be gained by analysing such data, its sheer volume creates challenges. Geovisual analytics, which helps the human cognition process by using tools to reason about data, offers powerful techniques to resolve these challenges. This paper introduces such a geovisual analytics environment for exploring movement trajectories, which provides visualisation interfaces, based on the classic space-time cube. Additionally, a new approach, using the mathematical description of motion within a space-time cube, is used to determine the similarity of trajectories and forms the basis for clustering them. These techniques were used to analyse pedestrian movement. The results reveal interesting and useful spatiotemporal patterns and clusters of pedestrians exhibiting similar behaviour.