Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Statistical segmentation methods and color variance analysis of retinal images

In this research, the effectiveness of Naive Bayes and Gaussian Mixture Models classifiers on segmenting exudates in retinal images is studied and the results are evaluated with metrics commonly used in medical imaging. Also, a color variation analysis of retinal images is carried out to find how effectively can retinal images be segmented using only the color information of the pixels.

Ectopic development of skeletal muscle induced by subcutaneous transplant of rat satellite cells

The present study analyzes the ectopic development of the rat skeletal muscle originated from transplanted satellite cells. Satellite cells (10(6) cells) obtained from hindlimb muscles of newborn female 2BAW Wistar rats were injected subcutaneously into the dorsal area of adult male rats. After 3, 7, and 14 days, the transplanted tissues (N = 4-5) were processed for histochemical analysis of peripheral nerves, inactive X-chromosome and acetylcholinesterase. Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) were also labeled with tetramethylrhodamine-labeled alpha-bungarotoxin. The development of ectopic muscles was successful in 86% of the implantation sites. By day 3, the transplanted cells were organized as multinucleated fibers containing multiple clusters of nAChRs (N = 2-4), resembling those from non-innervated cultured skeletal muscle fibers. After 7 days, the transplanted cells appeared as a highly vascularized tissue formed by bundles of fibers containing peripheral nuclei. The presence of X chromatin body indicated that subcutaneously developed fibers originated from female donor satellite cells. Differently from the extensor digitorum longus muscle of adult male rat (87.9 ± 1.0 µm; N = 213), the diameter of ectopic fibers (59.1 µm; N = 213) did not obey a Gaussian distribution and had a higher coefficient of variation. After 7 and 14 days, the organization of the nAChR clusters was similar to that of clusters from adult innervated extensor digitorum longus muscle. These findings indicate the histocompatibility of rats from 2BAW colony and that satellite cells transplanted into the subcutaneous space of adult animals are able to develop and fuse to form differentiated skeletal muscle fibers.

Contribution of matrix vesicles and alkaline phosphatase to ectopic bone formation

Endochondral calcification involves the participation of matrix vesicles (MVs), but it remains unclear whether calcification ectopically induced by implants of demineralized bone matrix also proceeds via MVs. Ectopic bone formation was induced by implanting rat demineralized diaphyseal bone matrix into the dorsal subcutaneous tissue of Wistar rats and was examined histologically and biochemically. Budding of MVs from chondrocytes was observed to serve as nucleation sites for mineralization during induced ectopic osteogenesis, presenting a diameter with Gaussian distribution with a median of 306 ± 103 nm. While the role of tissue-nonspecific alkaline phosphatase (TNAP) during mineralization involves hydrolysis of inorganic pyrophosphate (PPi), it is unclear how the microenvironment of MV may affect the ability of TNAP to hydrolyze the variety of substrates present at sites of mineralization. We show that the implants contain high levels of TNAP capable of hydrolyzing p-nitrophenylphosphate (pNPP), ATP and PPi. The catalytic properties of glycosyl phosphatidylinositol-anchored, polidocanol-solubilized and phosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase C-released TNAP were compared using pNPP, ATP and PPi as substrates. While the enzymatic efficiency (k cat/Km) remained comparable between polidocanol-solubilized and membrane-bound TNAP for all three substrates, the k cat/Km for the phosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase C-solubilized enzyme increased approximately 108-, 56-, and 556-fold for pNPP, ATP and PPi, respectively, compared to the membrane-bound enzyme. Our data are consistent with the involvement of MVs during ectopic calcification and also suggest that the location of TNAP on the membrane of MVs may play a role in determining substrate selectivity in this micro-compartment.

Method for automatic detection of wheezing in lung sounds

The present report describes the development of a technique for automatic wheezing recognition in digitally recorded lung sounds. This method is based on the extraction and processing of spectral information from the respiratory cycle and the use of these data for user feedback and automatic recognition. The respiratory cycle is first pre-processed, in order to normalize its spectral information, and its spectrogram is then computed. After this procedure, the spectrogram image is processed by a two-dimensional convolution filter and a half-threshold in order to increase the contrast and isolate its highest amplitude components, respectively. Thus, in order to generate more compressed data to automatic recognition, the spectral projection from the processed spectrogram is computed and stored as an array. The higher magnitude values of the array and its respective spectral values are then located and used as inputs to a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network, which results an automatic indication about the presence of wheezes. For validation of the methodology, lung sounds recorded from three different repositories were used. The results show that the proposed technique achieves 84.82% accuracy in the detection of wheezing for an isolated respiratory cycle and 92.86% accuracy for the detection of wheezes when detection is carried out using groups of respiratory cycles obtained from the same person. Also, the system presents the original recorded sound and the post-processed spectrogram image for the user to draw his own conclusions from the data.

Induced maturation of hepatic progenitor cellsin vitro

Hepatic progenitor cells (HPCs) are a potential cell source for liver cell transplantation but do not function like mature liver cells. We sought an effective and reliable method to induce HPC maturation. An immortalized HP14.5 albumin promoter-driven Gaussian luciferase (ALB-GLuc) cell line was established from HPCs isolated from fetal mouse liver of post coitus day 14.5 mice to investigate the effect of induction factors on ALB promoter. HP14.5 parental cells were cultured in DMEM with different combinations of 2% horse serum (HS), 0.1 µM dexamethasone (DEX), 10 ng/mL hepatic growth factor (HGF), and/or 20 ng/mL fibroblast growth factor 4 (FGF4). Trypan blue and crystal violet staining were used to assess cell proliferation with different induction conditions. Expression of hepatic markers was measured by semi-quantitative RT-PCR, Western blot, and immunofluorescence. Glycogen storage and metabolism were detected by periodic acid-Schiff and indocyanine green (ICG) staining. GLuc activity indicated ALB expression. The combination of 2% HS+0.1 µM Dex+10 ng/mL HGF+20 ng/mL FGF4 induced the highest ALB-GLuc activity. Cell proliferation decreased in 2% HS but increased by adding FGF4. Upon induction, and consistent with hepatocyte development, DLK, AFP, and CK19 expression decreased, while ALB, CK18, and UGT1A expression increased. The maturity markers tyrosine aminotransferase and apolipoprotein B were detected at days 3 and 6 post-induction, respectively. ICG uptake and glycogen synthesis were detectable at day 6 and increased over time. Therefore, we demonstrated that HPCs were induced to differentiate into functional mature hepatocytes in vitro, suggesting that factor-treated HPCs may be further explored as a means of liver cell transplantation.

Generative Part-Based Gabor Object Detector

Object detection is a fundamental task of computer vision that is utilized as a core part in a number of industrial and scientific applications, for example, in robotics, where objects need to be correctly detected and localized prior to being grasped and manipulated. Existing object detectors vary in (i) the amount of supervision they need for training, (ii) the type of a learning method adopted (generative or discriminative) and (iii) the amount of spatial information used in the object model (model-free, using no spatial information in the object model, or model-based, with the explicit spatial model of an object). Although some existing methods report good performance in the detection of certain objects, the results tend to be application specific and no universal method has been found that clearly outperforms all others in all areas. This work proposes a novel generative part-based object detector. The generative learning procedure of the developed method allows learning from positive examples only. The detector is based on finding semantically meaningful parts of the object (i.e. a part detector) that can provide additional information to object location, for example, pose. The object class model, i.e. the appearance of the object parts and their spatial variance, constellation, is explicitly modelled in a fully probabilistic manner. The appearance is based on bio-inspired complex-valued Gabor features that are transformed to part probabilities by an unsupervised Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). The proposed novel randomized GMM enables learning from only a few training examples. The probabilistic spatial model of the part configurations is constructed with a mixture of 2D Gaussians. The appearance of the parts of the object is learned in an object canonical space that removes geometric variations from the part appearance model. Robustness to pose variations is achieved by object pose quantization, which is more efficient than previously used scale and orientation shifts in the Gabor feature space. Performance of the resulting generative object detector is characterized by high recall with low precision, i.e. the generative detector produces large number of false positive detections. Thus a discriminative classifier is used to prune false positive candidate detections produced by the generative detector improving its precision while keeping high recall. Using only a small number of positive examples, the developed object detector performs comparably to state-of-the-art discriminative methods.

Spatial variability of soil fertility and its relationship with seed physiological potential in a soybean production area

The correlation of soil fertility x seed physiological potential is very important in the area of seed technology but results published with that theme are contradictory. For this reason, this study to evaluate the correlations between soil chemical properties and physiological potential of soybean seeds. On georeferenced points, both soil and seeds were sampled for analysis of soil fertility and seed physiological potential. Data were assessed by the following analyses: descriptive statistics; Pearson's linear correlation; and geostatistics. The adjusted parameters of the semivariograms were used to produce maps of spatial distribution for each variable. Organic matter content, Mn and Cu showed significant effects on seed germination. Most variables studied presented moderate to high spatial dependence. Germination and accelerated aging of seeds, and P, Ca, Mg, Mn, Cu and Zn showed a better fit to spherical semivariogram: organic matter, pH and K had a better fit to Gaussian model; and V% and Fe showed a better fit to the linear model. The values for range of spatial dependence varied from 89.9 m for P until 651.4 m for Fe. These values should be considered when new samples are collected for assessing soil fertility in this production area.

Fluorescence spectra and ab initio theoretical studies of HCOOH /

A fluorescence excitation spectrum of formic acid monomer (HCOOH) , has been recorded in the 278-246 nm region and has been attributed to an n >7r* electron promotion in the anti conformer. The S^< S^ electronic origins of the HCOOH/HCOOD/DCOOH/DCOOD isotopomers were assigned to weak bands observed at 37431.5/37461.5/37445.5/37479.3 cm'''. From a band contour analysis of the 0°^ band of HCOOH, the rotational constants for the excited state were estimated: A'=1.8619, B'=0.4073, and C'=0.3730 cm'\ Four vibrational modes, 1/3(0=0), j/^(0-C=0) , J/g(C-H^^^) and i/,(0-H^yJ were observed in the spectrum. The activity of the antisymmetric aldehyde wagging and hydroxyl torsional modes in forming progressions is central to the analysis, leading to the conclusion that the two hydrogens are distorted from the molecular plane, 0-C=0, in the upper S. state. Ab initio calculations were performed at the 6-3 IG* SCF level using the Gaussian 86 system of programs to aid in the vibrational assignments. The computations show that the potential surface which describes the low frequency OH torsion (twisting motion) and the CH wagging (molecular inversion) motions is complex in the S^ excited electronic state. The OH and CH bonds were calculated to be twisted with respect to the 0-C=0 molecular frame by 63.66 and 4 5.76 degrees, respectively. The calculations predicted the existence of the second (syn) rotamer which is 338 cm'^ above the equilibrium configuration with OH and CH angles displaced from the plane by 47.91 and 41.32 degrees.

Heterogeneity of photosystem II as it occurs in domain specific regions of the thylakoid membrane of spinach (spinacia oleracia L.)

Thylakoid membrane fractions were prepared from specific regions of thylakoid membranes of spinach (Spinacia oleracea). These fractions, which include grana (83), stroma (T3), grana core (8S), margins (Ma) and purified stroma (Y100) were prepared using a non-detergent method including a mild sonication and aqueous two-phase partitioning. The significance of PSlla and PSII~ centres have been described extensively in the literature. Previous work has characterized two types of PSII centres which are proposed to exist in different regions of the thylakoid membrane. a-centres are suggested to aggregate in stacked regions of grana whereas ~-centres are located in unstacked regions of stroma lamellae. The goal of this study is to characterize photosystem II from the isolated membrane vesicles representing different regions of the higher plant thylakoid membrane. The low temperature absorption spectra have been deconvoluted via Gaussian decomposition to estimate the relative sub-components that contribute to each fractions signature absorption spectrum. The relative sizes of the functional PSII antenna and the fluorescence induction kinetics were measured and used to determine the relative contributions of PSlla and PSII~ to each fraction. Picosecond chlorophyll fluorescence decay kinetics were collected for each fraction to characterize and gain insight into excitation energy transfer and primary electron transport in PSlla and PSII~ centres. The results presented here clearly illustrate the widely held notions of PSII/PS·I and PSlIa/PSII~ spatial separation. This study suggests that chlorophyll fluorescence decay lifetimes of PSII~ centres are shorter than those of PSlIa centres and, at FM, the longer lived of the two PSII components renders a larger yield in PSlIa-rich fractions, but smaller in PSIlr3-rich fractions.

Low frequency Raman scattering in amorphous materials: fused quartz, "pyrex" boro-silicate glass and soda-lime silicate glass

Raman scattering in the region 20 to 100 cm -1 for fused quartz, "pyrex" boro-silicate glass, and soft soda-lime silicate glass was investigated. The Raman spectra for the fused quartz and the pyrex glass were obtained at room temperature using the 488 nm exciting line of a Coherent Radiation argon-ion laser at powers up to 550 mW. For the soft soda-lime glass the 514.5 nm exciting line at powers up to 660 mW was used because of a weak fluorescence which masked the Stokes Raman spectrum. In addition it is demonstrated that the low-frequency Raman coupling constant can be described by a model proposed by Martin and Brenig (MB). By fitting the predicted spectra based on the model with a Gaussian, Poisson, and Lorentzian forms of the correlation function, the structural correlation radius (SCR) was determined for each glass. It was found that to achieve the best possible fit· from each of the three correlation functions a value of the SCR between 0.80 and 0.90 nm was required for both quartz and pyrex glass but for the soft soda-lime silicate glass the required value of the SCR. was between 0.50 and 0.60 nm .. Our results support the claim of Malinovsky and Sokolov (1986) that the MB model based on a Poisson correlation function provides a universal fit to the experimental VH (vertical and horizontal polarizations) spectrum for any glass regardless of its chemical composition. The only deficiency of the MB model is its failure to fit the experimental depolarization spectra.

QUANTIFICATION AND EXTRACTION OF SURFACE FEATURES FROM DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELS

Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) are important in geology and geomorphology, since elevation data contains a lot of information pertaining to geomorphological processes that influence the topography. The first derivative of topography is attitude; the second is curvature. GIS tools were developed for derivation of strike, dip, curvature and curvature orientation from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). A method for displaying both strike and dip simultaneously as colour-coded visualization (AVA) was implemented. A plug-in for calculating strike and dip via Least Squares Regression was created first using VB.NET. Further research produced a more computationally efficient solution, convolution filtering, which was implemented as Python scripts. These scripts were also used for calculation of curvature and curvature orientation. The application of these tools was demonstrated by performing morphometric studies on datasets from Earth and Mars. The tools show promise, however more work is needed to explore their full potential and possible uses.

Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.

Tests of Joint Hypotheses for Time Series Regression with a Unit Root

This Paper Studies Tests of Joint Hypotheses in Time Series Regression with a Unit Root in Which Weakly Dependent and Heterogeneously Distributed Innovations Are Allowed. We Consider Two Types of Regression: One with a Constant and Lagged Dependent Variable, and the Other with a Trend Added. the Statistics Studied Are the Regression \"F-Test\" Originally Analysed by Dickey and Fuller (1981) in a Less General Framework. the Limiting Distributions Are Found Using Functinal Central Limit Theory. New Test Statistics Are Proposed Which Require Only Already Tabulated Critical Values But Which Are Valid in a Quite General Framework (Including Finite Order Arma Models Generated by Gaussian Errors). This Study Extends the Results on Single Coefficients Derived in Phillips (1986A) and Phillips and Perron (1986).