Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.

Automatic speech segmentation using probabilistic latent component modeling

Latent variable methods, such as PLCA (Probabilistic Latent Component Analysis) have been successfully used for analysis of non-negative signal representations. In this paper, we formulate PLCS (Probabilistic Latent Component Segmentation), which models each time frame of a spectrogram as a spectral distribution. Given the signal spectrogram, the segmentation boundaries are estimated using a maximum-likelihood approach. For an efficient solution, the algorithm imposes a hard constraint that each segment is modelled by a single latent component. The hard constraint facilitates the solution of ML boundary estimation using dynamic programming. The PLCS framework does not impose a parametric assumption unlike earlier ML segmentation techniques. PLCS can be naturally extended to model coarticulation between successive phones. Experiments on the TIMIT corpus show that the proposed technique is promising compared to most state of the art speech segmentation algorithms.

Relation Between the Diffusivity, Viscosity, and Ionic Radius of LiCl in Water, Methanol, and Ethylene Glycol: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation

A molecular dynamics (MD) investigation of LiCl in water, methanol, and ethylene glycol (EG) at 298 K is reported. Several; structural and dynamical properties of the ions as well as the solvent such as self-diffusivity, radial distribution functions, void and neck distributions, velocity autocorrelation functions, and mean residence times of solvent in the first solvation shell have been computed. The results show that the reciprocal relationship between the self-diffusivity of the ions and the viscosity is valid in almost all solvents with the exception of water. From an analysis of radial distribution functions and coordination numbers the nature of hydrogen bonding within the solvent and its influence on the void and neck distribution becomes evident. It is seen that the solvent solvent interaction is important in EG while solute solvent interactions dominate in water and methanol. From Voronoi tessellation, it is seen that the voids and necks within methanol are larger as compared to those within water or EG. On the basis of the void and neck distributions obtained from MD simulations and literature experimental data of limiting ion conductivity for various ions of different sizes we show that there is a relation between the void and neck radius on e one hand and dependence of conductivity on the ionic radius on the other. It is shown that the presence of large diameter voids and necks in methanol is responsible for maximum in limiting ion conductivity (lambda(0)) of TMA(+), while in water in EG, the maximum is seen for Rb+. In the case of monovalent anions, maximum in lambda(0) as a function ionic radius is seen for Br- in water EG but for the larger ClO4- ion in methanol. The relation between the void and neck distribution and the variation in lambda(0) with ionic radius arises via the Levitation effect which is discussed. These studies show the importance of the solvent structure and the associated void structure.

Black hole formation in fuzzy sphere collapse

We study the collapse of a fuzzy sphere, that is a spherical membrane built out of D0-branes, in the Banks-Fischler-Shenker-Susskind model. At weak coupling, as the sphere shrinks, open strings are produced. If the initial radius is large then open string production is not important and the sphere behaves classically. At intermediate initial radius the backreaction from open string production is important but the fuzzy sphere retains its identity. At small initial radius the sphere collapses to form a black hole. The crossover between the later two regimes is smooth and occurs at the correspondence point of Horowitz and Polchinski.

Establishing a Relation between the Mass and the Spin of Stellar-Mass Black Holes

Stellar mass black holes (SMBHs), forming by the core collapse of very massive, rapidly rotating stars, are expected to exhibit a high density accretion disk around them developed from the spinning mantle of the collapsing star. A wide class of such disks, due to their high density and temperature, are effective emitters of neutrinos and hence called neutrino cooled disks. Tracking the physics relating the observed (neutrino) luminosity to the mass, spin of black holes (BHs) and the accretion rate ((M) over dot) of such disks, here we establish a correlation between the spin and mass of SMBHs at their formation stage. Our work shows that spinning BHs are more massive than nonspinning BHs for a given (M) over dot. However, slowly spinning BHs can turn out to be more massive than spinning BHs if (M) over dot at their formation stage was higher compared to faster spinning BHs.

Monopoles on S-F(2) from the fuzzy conifold

The intersection of the conifold z(1)(2) + z(2)(2) + z(3)(2) = 0 and S-5 is a compact 3-dimensional manifold X-3. We review the description of X-3 as a principal U(1) bundle over S-2 and construct the associated monopole line bundles. These monopoles can have only even integers as their charge. We also show the Kaluza-Klein reduction of X-3 to S-2 provides an easy construction of these monopoles. Using the analogue of the Jordan-Schwinger map, our techniques are readily adapted to give the fuzzy version of the fibration X-3 -> S-2 and the associated line bundles. This is an alternative new realization of the fuzzy sphere S-F(2) and monopoles OH it.

How general is a female mating preference for clustered males in lekking species? a meta-analysis

A principal hypothesis for the evolution of leks (rare and intensely competitive territorial aggregations) is that leks result from females preferring to mate with clustered males. This hypothesis predicts more female visits and higher mating success per male on larger leks. Evidence for and against this hypothesis has been presented by different studies, primarily of individual populations, but its generality has not yet been formally investigated. We took a meta-analytical approach towards formally examining the generality of such a female bias in lekking species. Using available published data and using female visits as an index of female mating bias, we estimated the shape of the relationship between lek size and total female visits to a lek, female visits per lekking male and, where available, per capita male mating success. Individual analyses showed that female visits generally increased with lek size across the majority of taxa surveyed; the meta-analysis indicated that this relationship with lek size was disproportionately positive. The findings from analysing per capita female visits were mixed, with an increase with lek size detected in half of the species, which were, however, widely distributed taxonomically. Taken together, these findings suggest that a female bias for clustered males may be a general process across lekking species. Nevertheless, the substantial variation seen in these relationships implies that other processes are also important. Analyses of per capita copulation success suggested that, more generally, increased per capita mating benefits may be an important selective factor in lek maintenance.

Scalable Preference Aggregation in Social Networks

In social choice theory, preference aggregation refers to computing an aggregate preference over a set of alternatives given individual preferences of all the agents. In real-world scenarios, it may not be feasible to gather preferences from all the agents. Moreover, determining the aggregate preference is computationally intensive. In this paper, we show that the aggregate preference of the agents in a social network can be computed efficiently and with sufficient accuracy using preferences elicited from a small subset of critical nodes in the network. Our methodology uses a model developed based on real-world data obtained using a survey on human subjects, and exploits network structure and homophily of relationships. Our approach guarantees good performance for aggregation rules that satisfy a property which we call expected weak insensitivity. We demonstrate empirically that many practically relevant aggregation rules satisfy this property. We also show that two natural objective functions in this context satisfy certain properties, which makes our methodology attractive for scalable preference aggregation over large scale social networks. We conclude that our approach is superior to random polling while aggregating preferences related to individualistic metrics, whereas random polling is acceptable in the case of social metrics.

Integrated sustainable irrigation planning with multiobjective Fuzzy optimization approach

Multiobjective fuzzy methodology is applied to a case study of Khadakwasla complex irrigation project located near Pune city of Maharashtra State, India. Three objectives, namely, maximization of net benefits, crop production and labour employment are considered. Effect of reuse of wastewater on the planning scenario is also studied. Three membership functions, namely, nonlinear, hyperbolic and exponential are analyzed for multiobjective fuzzy optimization. In the present study, objective functions are considered as fuzzy in nature whereas inflows are considered as dependable. It is concluded that exponential and hyperbolic membership functions provided similar cropping pattern for most of the situations whereas nonlinear membership functions provided different cropping pattern. However, in all the three cases, irrigation intensities are more than the existing irrigation intensity.

Estimation of Probabilistic Bounds on Phase CPI and Relevance in WCET Analysis

Estimating program worst case execution time(WCET) accurately and efficiently is a challenging task. Several programs exhibit phase behavior wherein cycles per instruction (CPI) varies in phases during execution. Recent work has suggested the use of phases in such programs to estimate WCET with minimal instrumentation. However the suggested model uses a function of mean CPI that has no probabilistic guarantees. We propose to use Chebyshev's inequality that can be applied to any arbitrary distribution of CPI samples, to probabilistically bound CPI of a phase. Applying Chebyshev's inequality to phases that exhibit high CPI variation leads to pessimistic upper bounds. We propose a mechanism that refines such phases into sub-phases based on program counter(PC) signatures collected using profiling and also allows the user to control variance of CPI within a sub-phase. We describe a WCET analyzer built on these lines and evaluate it with standard WCET and embedded benchmark suites on two different architectures for three chosen probabilities, p={0.9, 0.95 and 0.99}. For p= 0.99, refinement based on PC signatures alone, reduces average pessimism of WCET estimate by 36%(77%) on Arch1 (Arch2). Compared to Chronos, an open source static WCET analyzer, the average improvement in estimates obtained by refinement is 5%(125%) on Arch1 (Arch2). On limiting variance of CPI within a sub-phase to {50%, 10%, 5% and 1%} of its original value, average accuracy of WCET estimate improves further to {9%, 11%, 12% and 13%} respectively, on Arch1. On Arch2, average accuracy of WCET improves to 159% when CPI variance is limited to 50% of its original value and improvement is marginal beyond that point.

Supplier selection based on supply chain ecosystem, performance and risk criteria

A supply chain ecosystem consists of the elements of the supply chain and the entities that influence the goods, information and financial flows through the supply chain. These influences come through government regulations, human, financial and natural resources, logistics infrastructure and management, etc., and thus affect the supply chain performance. Similarly, all the ecosystem elements also contribute to the risk. The aim of this paper is to identify both performances-based and risk-based decision criteria, which are important and critical to the supply chain. A two step approach using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution has been proposed for multi-criteria decision-making and illustrated using a numerical example. The first step does the selection without considering risks and then in the next step suppliers are ranked according to their risk profiles. Later, the two ranks are consolidated into one. In subsequent section, the method is also extended for multi-tier supplier selection. In short, we are presenting a method for the design of a resilient supply chain, in this paper.

Probabilistic least squares approach to ordinal regression

This paper proposes a novel approach to solve the ordinal regression problem using Gaussian processes. The proposed approach, probabilistic least squares ordinal regression (PLSOR), obtains the probability distribution over ordinal labels using a particular likelihood function. It performs model selection (hyperparameter optimization) using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) technique. PLSOR has conceptual simplicity and ease of implementation of least squares approach. Unlike the existing Gaussian process ordinal regression (GPOR) approaches, PLSOR does not use any approximation techniques for inference. We compare the proposed approach with the state-of-the-art GPOR approaches on some synthetic and benchmark data sets. Experimental results show the competitiveness of the proposed approach.

Functional analysis of ultra high information rates conveyed by rat vibrissal primary afferents

Sensory receptors determine the type and the quantity of information available for perception. Here, we quantified and characterized the information transferred by primary afferents in the rat whisker system using neural system identification. Quantification of ``how much'' information is conveyed by primary afferents, using the direct method (DM), a classical information theoretic tool, revealed that primary afferents transfer huge amounts of information (up to 529 bits/s). Information theoretic analysis of instantaneous spike-triggered kinematic stimulus features was used to gain functional insight on ``what'' is coded by primary afferents. Amongst the kinematic variables tested-position, velocity, and acceleration-primary afferent spikes encoded velocity best. The other two variables contributed to information transfer, but only if combined with velocity. We further revealed three additional characteristics that play a role in information transfer by primary afferents. Firstly, primary afferent spikes show preference for well separated multiple stimuli (i.e., well separated sets of combinations of the three instantaneous kinematic variables). Secondly, neurons are sensitive to short strips of the stimulus trajectory (up to 10 ms pre-spike time), and thirdly, they show spike patterns (precise doublet and triplet spiking). In order to deal with these complexities, we used a flexible probabilistic neuron model fitting mixtures of Gaussians to the spike triggered stimulus distributions, which quantitatively captured the contribution of the mentioned features and allowed us to achieve a full functional analysis of the total information rate indicated by the DM. We found that instantaneous position, velocity, and acceleration explained about 50% of the total information rate. Adding a 10 ms pre-spike interval of stimulus trajectory achieved 80-90%. The final 10-20% were found to be due to non-linear coding by spike bursts.

FUZZY CONIFOLD Y-F(6) AND MONOPOLES ON S-F(2) x S-F(2)

In this paper, we construct the fuzzy (finite-dimensional) analogs of the conifold Y-6 and its base X-5. We show that fuzzy X-5 is (the analog of) a principal U(1) bundle over fuzzy spheres S-F(2) x S-F(2) and explicitly construct the associated monopole bundles. In particular, our construction provides an explicit discretization of the spaces T-k,T-k and T-k,T-0.

Universal binding energy relation for cleaved and structurally relaxed surfaces

The universal binding energy relation (UBER), derived earlier to describe the cohesion between two rigid atomic planes, does not accurately capture the cohesive properties when the cleaved surfaces are allowed to relax. We suggest a modified functional form of UBER that is analytical and at the same time accurately models the properties of surfaces relaxed during cleavage. We demonstrate the generality as well as the validity of this modified UBER through first-principles density functional theory calculations of cleavage in a number of crystal systems. Our results show that the total energies of all the relaxed surfaces lie on a single (universal) energy surface, that is given by the proposed functional form which contains an additional length-scale associated with structural relaxation. This functional form could be used in modelling the cohesive zones in crack growth simulation studies. We find that the cohesive law (stress-displacement relation) differs significantly in the case where cracked surfaces are allowed to relax, with lower peak stresses occurring at higher displacements.