Cumbre de Viena: energía, polarización y búsqueda de liderazgos

La IV Cumbre Unión Europea – América Latina y el Caribe (UE-ALC), celebrada en Viena los días 11, 12 y 13 de mayo, estuvo marcada por una creciente polarización interna latinoamericana, por los problemas europeos para definir un liderazgo sobre el futuro del proyecto de integración y por la crisis global de energía.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Series anuales de algunos agregados económicos y demográficos regionales, 1955-2009 (RegDat versión 2.3)

En una serie de trabajos anteriores he construido series largas de diversos agregados económicos regionales enlazando las distintas bases de la Contabilidad Regional de España entre sí y con las series históricas elaboradas por la Fundación BBVA. Puesto que esta última fuente sólo ofrece datos para años impares, las series enlazadas heredan esta característica desde 1955 hasta 1989. En la presente nota se construyen series anuales completas de las variables de interés utilizando un sencillo procedimiento de interpolación que incorpora la información anual disponible a nivel nacional para estas variables.

Les communautés bulu contre la plantation industrielle HEVECAM au Cameroun

In 1975 the Kribi region (Southern Cameroon) became host of the rubber plantation HEVECAM, the third largest employer in Cameroon. The establishment of the plantation has been preceded by the expropriation of customary land and by the destruction of the rainforest used by local populations. As a result, conflicts – mostly latent – pitting neighbouring Bulu communities against the plantation have occurred, especially during the last few years. Drawing on fieldwork data as well as on anthropological, economic and historical materials, I try to explore a new way of looking at such environmental conflicts by arguing that they reflect the struggle between two distinct institutional logics with different impacts on the environment, i.e. the logic of property versus the one of possession. In short, the logic of possession corresponds to a multi-functional community-based forest management, while the logic of property gave birth to the commercial monoculture model, the highest stage of the transformation of an ecosystem in order to match the requirements of property. It is argued that the conflict between the logic of possession and the logic of property is at the heart of many cases of “environmentalisms of the poor” that arise in reaction to “development”.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Aspects related to productivity for four generations of a Lutzomyia longipalpis laboratory colony

A closed colony of Lutzomyia longipalpis was established with specimens collected in the Raposa - Serra do Sol indian reservoir, one of the main foci of visceral leishmaniasis in the State of Roraima, Brazil. Biological observations were made on four generations of a L. longipalpis colony with emphasis on productivity. Aspects studied were the number of laid and retained eggs, and the number of adults (male and female) per generation. During the four generations the percentage of engorged females that laid eggs varied from 64.2% (third generation-F3) to 90.3% (second generation-F2). The mean number of eggs laid per female varied from 23.6 (F3) to 39.9 (first generation-F1). The maximum number of eggs laid per female varied from 84 (F3) to 124 (F1). The mean number of retained eggs per female was 12.7 (parental generation-P and F1) to 22.1 (F2). The number of females exceeded the number of males in all generations. However, significant difference for male/female ratio was found only for F3. Fecundity rates were between 42.1 (F3) and 58.3 (F2). From a total of 439 blood-fed females, 355 females laid 12,257 eggs that yield 5,354 adults (2,525 males and 2,829 females) in four generations. F2 presented maximum productivity and fecundity rates.

Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures

This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Suboptimal Management of Coronary Risk in Daily Clinical Practice: Results from a Mediterranean Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients With Myocardial Infarction

Background: The incidence of cardiovascular events in HIV patients has fallen. Methods: We identified 81 patients with a history of coronary events from 2 hospitals in Spain to evaluate management of CVRF before and after the event. Results: The prevalence of coronary events was 2.15%. At the time of the coronary event, CVRF were highly prevalent. Decrease in total cholesterol (P=0.025) and LDLc(P=0.004) was observed. LDLc and HDLc were determined and the percentage of patients with LDLc &100 mg/dL remained stable at the last visit. Conclusions: The prevalence of coronary disease in our cohort was low. Although CVRF were highly.

Laboratory diagnosis of Schistosomiasis in areas of low transmission: a review of a line of research

After 57 years of successful control of schistosomiasis in Venezuela, the prevalence and intensity of infection have declined. Approximately 80% of the individuals eliminate less than 100 eggs/g of stools, therefore morbidity is mild and the majority are asymptomatic. The sensitivity of Kato-Katz decreases to approximately 60%. Available serological methods for the detection of circulating antigens only reach a 70% of sensitivity. Tests based on the detection of antibodies by immunoenzymatic assays have been improved. The circumoval precipitine test has shown a high sensitivity (97%), specificity (100%), and correlation with oviposition, being considered the best confirmatory diagnostic test. Additionally to the classical immunoenzymatic assays, the development of the alkaline phosphatase immunoassay, allowed to reach a 100% specificity with an 89% sensitivity. Recently, we have developed a modified ELISA in which the soluble egg antigen is treated with sodium metaperiodate (SMP-ELISA) in order to eliminate the glycosilated epitopes responsible for the false positive reactions. The specificity and sensitivity reaches 97% and 99%, respectively. Synthetic peptides from the excretory-secretory enzymes, cathepsin B (Sm31) legumain (Sm32) and cathepsin D (Sm45), have been synthesized. The combination of two peptides derived from the Sm31 have been evaluated, reaching a sensitivity of 96% when analyzed independently and with a 100% specificity. Antibodies raised in rabbits against peptides derived from the Sm31 and Sm32 are currently evaluated in two different antigen-capture-based assays. The development of a simple, cheap and reliable test that correlates with parasite activity is a major goal.

Campus formatiu

Desenvolupament d'una plataforma de formació online amb ASP.NET.

Incidence of myiasis in Panama during the eradication of Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel 1858, Diptera: Calliphoridae) (2002-2005)

We present the results of a study on myiasis in Panama during the first years of a Cochliomyia hominivorax eradication program (1998-2005), with the aim of investigating the behavior of the flies that produce myiasis in animals and human beings. The hosts that registered positive for myiasis were cattle (46.4%), dogs (15.3%), humans (14.7%), birds (12%), pigs (6%), horses (4%), and sheep (1%). Six fly species caused myiasis: Dermatobia hominis (58%), Phaenicia spp. (20%), Cochliomyia macellaria (19%), Chrysomya rufifacies (0.4%), and maggots of unidentified species belonging to the Sarcophagidae (3%) and Muscidae (0.3%). With the Dubois index, was no evidence that the absence of C. hominivorax allowed an increase in the cases of facultative myiasis.

Alliberament dels sistemes informàtics d'una Fundació

Passos a seguir per l'alliberament i migració dels sistemes informàtics d'una Fundació existent cap a Programari Lliure.