868 resultados para Fit Hypothesis
Resumo:
Este trabajo tiene por objeto aplicar los principios del Value Investing a veinticuatro empresas del sector minero y definir las claves para extrapolar, en base a un análisis fundamental, una calificación para cada una de las empresas. Con este fin, se ha realizado un estudio estadístico multivariante para comparar las correlaciones existentes entre cada ratio fundamental y su evolución en bolsa a uno, tres y cinco años vista. Para procesar los datos se han utilizado los programas MATLAB y EXCEL. Sobre ellos se ha planteado una Matriz de Correlaciones de Pearson y un estudio de dispersión por cruce de pares. El análisis demostró que es posible aplicar la metodología del Value Investing a empresas del sector minero con resultados positivos aunque, el ajuste de las correlaciones, sugiere utilizar series temporales más largas y un mayor número de empresas para ganar fiabilidad en el contraste de estas hipótesis. De los estudios realizados, se deduce que unos buenos fundamentales influyen, de manera notable, a la revalorización bursátil a 3 y 5 años destacando, además, que el ajuste es mejor cuanto mayor sea este tiempo. Abstract This study aims to apply the principles of Value Investing to twenty four mining companies and, based on this fundamental study, develop a rating to classify those companies. For this purpose, we have performed a multivariate statistical study to compare the correlations between each fundamental ratio and its stock revalorization for one, three and five years. MATLAB and EXCEL have been used to process data. The statistical methods used are Pearson Matrix of Correlations and a Cross Pairs Scattering Study. The analysis showed that it is possible to apply the methodology of Value Investing to mining companies, although, the adjustment of correlations suggests using longer time series and a larger amount of companies to test these hypothesis. From the studies performed, it follows that good fundamentals significantly influence the stock market value at 3 and 5 years, noting that, the larger the period under study, the better the fit.
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Generalmente los patrones espaciales de puntos en ecología, se definen en el espacio bi-dimensional, donde cada punto representado por el par ordenado (x,y), resume la ubicación espacial de una planta. La importancia de los patrones espaciales de plantas radica en que proceden como respuesta ante importantes procesos ecológicos asociados a la estructura de una población o comunidad. Tales procesos incluyen fenómenos como la dispersión de semillas, la competencia por recursos, la facilitación, respuesta de las plantas ante algún tipo de estrés, entre otros. En esta tesis se evalúan los factores y potenciales procesos subyacentes, que explican los patrones de distribución espacial de la biodiversidad vegetal en diferentes ecosistemas como bosque mediterráneo, bosque tropical y matorral seco tropical; haciendo uso de nuevas metodologías para comprobar hipótesis relacionadas a los procesos espaciales. En este trabajo se utilizaron dos niveles ecológicos para analizar los procesos espaciales, el nivel de población y el nivel de comunidad, con el fin de evaluar la importancia relativa de las interacciones intraespecíficas e interespecíficas. Me centré en el uso de funciones estadísticas que resumen los patrones de puntos para explorar y hacer inferencias a partir de datos espaciales, empezando con la construcción de un nuevo modelo nulo para inferir variantes del síndrome de dispersión de una planta parásita en España central. Se analizó la dependencia de los patrones espaciales tanto de los hospedantes afectados como de los no-afectados y se observó fuerte dependencia a pequeña y mediana distancia. Se utilizaron dos funciones (kernel) para simular la dispersión de la especie parásita y se identificó consistencia de estos modelos con otros síndromes de dispersión adicionalmente a la autodispersión. Un segundo tema consistió en desarrollar un método ANOVA de dos vías? para patrones de puntos replicados donde el interés se concentró en evaluar la interacción de dos factores. Este método se aplicó a un caso de estudio que consitió en analizar la influencia de la topografía y la altitud sobre el patrón espacial de un arbusto dominante en matorral seco al sur del Ecuador, cuyos datos provienen de patrones de puntos replicados basados en diseño. Partiendo de una metodología desarrollada para procesos uni-factoriales, se construyó el método para procesos bi-factoriales y así poder evaluar el efecto de interacción. Se observó que la topografía por sí sola así como la interacción con la altitud presentaron efecto significativo sobre la formación del patrón espacial. Un tercer tema fue identificar la relación entre el patrón espacial y el síndrome de dispersión de la comunidad vegetal en el bosque tropical de la Isla de Barro Colorado (BCI), Panamá. Muchos estudios se han desarrollado en este bosque tropical y algunos han analizado la relación síndrome-patrón espacial, sin embargo lo novedoso de nuestro estudio es que se evaluaron un conjunto amplio de modelos (114 modelos) basados en procesos que incorporan la limitación de la dispersión y la heterogeneidad ambiental, y evalúan el efecto único y el efecto conjunto, para posteriormente seleccionar el modelo de mejor ajuste para cada especie. Más de la mitad de las especies presentaron patrón espacial consistente con el efecto conjutno de la limitación de la dispersión y heterogeneidad ambiental y el porcentaje restante de especies reveló en forma equitativa el efecto único de la heterogeneidad ambiental y efecto único de limitación de la dispersión. Finalmente, con la misma información del bosque tropical de BCI, y para entender las relaciones que subyacen para mantener el equilibrio de la biodiversidad, se desarrolló un índice de dispersión funcional local a nivel de individuo, que permita relacionar el patrón espacial con cuatro rasgos funcionales clave de las especies. Pese a que muchos estudios realizados involucran esta comunidad con la teoría neutral, se encontró que el ensamble de la comunidad de BCI está afectado por limitaciones de similaridad y de hábitat a diferentes escalas. ABSTRACT Overall the spatial point patterns in ecology are defined in two-dimensional space, where each point denoted by the (x,y) ordered pair, summarizes the spatial location of a plant. The spatial point patterns are essential because they arise in response to important ecological processes, associated with the structure of a population or community. Such processes include phenomena as seed dispersal, competition for resources, facilitation, and plant response to some type of stress, among others. In this thesis, some factors and potential underlying processes were evaluated in order to explain the spatial distribution patterns of plant biodiversity. It was done in different ecosystems such as Mediterranean forest, tropical forest and dry scrubland. For this purpose new methodologies were used to test hypothesis related to spatial processes. Two ecological levels were used to analyze the spatial processes, at population and community levels, in order to assess the relative importance of intraspecific and interspecific interactions. I focused on the use of spatial statistical functions to summarize point patterns to explore and make inferences from spatial data, starting with the construction of a new null model to infer variations about the dispersal syndrome of a parasitic plant in central Spain. Spatial dependence between point patterns in a multivariate point process of affected and unaffected hosts were analyzed and strong dependence was observed at small and medium distance. Two kernel functions were used to simulate the dispersion of parasitic plant and consistency of these models with other syndromes was identified, in addition to ballistic dispersion. A second issue was to analyze altitude and topography effects on the spatial population structure of a dominant shrub in the dry ecosystem in southern Ecuador, whose data come from replicated point patterns design-based. Based on a methodology developed for uni-factorial process, a method for bi-factorial processes was built to assess the interaction effect. The topography alone and interacting with altitude showed significant effect on the spatial pattern of shrub. A third issue was to identify the relationship between the spatial pattern and dispersal syndromes of plant community in the tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panamá. Several studies have been developed in this tropical forest and some focused on the spatial pattern-syndrome relationship; however the novelty of our study is that a large set of models (114 models) including dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity were evaluated, used to identify the only and joint effect to subsequently select the best fit model for each species. Slightly more than fifty percent of the species showed spatial pattern consistent with only the dispersal limitation, and the remaining percentage of species revealed the only effect of environmental heterogeneity and habitat-dispersal limitation joined effect, equitably. Finally, with the same information from the tropical forest of BCI, and to understand the relationships underlying for balance of biodiversity, an index of the local functional dispersion was developed at the individual level, to relate the spatial pattern with four key functional traits of species. Although many studies involve this community with neutral theory, the assembly of the community is affected by similarity and habitat limitations at different scales.
Resumo:
O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a crítica cinematográfica durante o período chamado de Retomada do cinema nacional. Foram escolhidos os maiores veículos de circulação da região Sudeste do País, os jornais O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), Folha de S.Paulo e O Estado de S.Paulo (São Paulo) e a revista Veja para fazer uma análise de conteúdo das críticas das seis maiores bilheterias da Retomada para, em seguida, conferir a recepção das mesmas pelos diretores desses filmes, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. A intenção é analisar quais conflitos permeiam a relação entre os críticos de cinema e os cineastas, a fim de contribuir para o melhor entendimento do trabalho de dois elementos dos mais importantes da área de cinema. O confronto do material da análise com as entrevistas confirmou a hipótese da existência de conflitos de valores e opiniões entre os dois lados e permitiu identificar pré-julgamentos, simpatias e antipatias, análises emotivas e não-fundamentadas de alguns críticos e cineastas, mas também opiniões e valores fundamentados de outros, demonstrando uma rica diversidade que não se encaixa em uma única definição.(AU)
Resumo:
O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a crítica cinematográfica durante o período chamado de Retomada do cinema nacional. Foram escolhidos os maiores veículos de circulação da região Sudeste do País, os jornais O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), Folha de S.Paulo e O Estado de S.Paulo (São Paulo) e a revista Veja para fazer uma análise de conteúdo das críticas das seis maiores bilheterias da Retomada para, em seguida, conferir a recepção das mesmas pelos diretores desses filmes, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. A intenção é analisar quais conflitos permeiam a relação entre os críticos de cinema e os cineastas, a fim de contribuir para o melhor entendimento do trabalho de dois elementos dos mais importantes da área de cinema. O confronto do material da análise com as entrevistas confirmou a hipótese da existência de conflitos de valores e opiniões entre os dois lados e permitiu identificar pré-julgamentos, simpatias e antipatias, análises emotivas e não-fundamentadas de alguns críticos e cineastas, mas também opiniões e valores fundamentados de outros, demonstrando uma rica diversidade que não se encaixa em uma única definição.(AU)
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Increasingly, studies of genes and genomes are indicating that considerable horizontal transfer has occurred between prokaryotes. Extensive horizontal transfer has occurred for operational genes (those involved in housekeeping), whereas informational genes (those involved in transcription, translation, and related processes) are seldomly horizontally transferred. Through phylogenetic analysis of six complete prokaryotic genomes and the identification of 312 sets of orthologous genes present in all six genomes, we tested two theories describing the temporal flow of horizontal transfer. We show that operational genes have been horizontally transferred continuously since the divergence of the prokaryotes, rather than having been exchanged in one, or a few, massive events that occurred early in the evolution of prokaryotes. In agreement with earlier studies, we found that differences in rates of evolution between operational and informational genes are minimal, suggesting that factors other than rate of evolution are responsible for the observed differences in horizontal transfer. We propose that a major factor in the more frequent horizontal transfer of operational genes is that informational genes are typically members of large, complex systems, whereas operational genes are not, thereby making horizontal transfer of informational gene products less probable (the complexity hypothesis).
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Molecular studies have the potential to shed light on the origin of the animal phyla by providing independent estimates of the divergence times, but have been criticized for failing to account adequately for variation in rate of evolution. A method of dating divergence times from molecular data addresses the criticisms of earlier studies and provides more realistic, but wider, confidence intervals. The data are not compatible with the Cambrian explosion hypothesis as an explanation for the origin of metazoan phyla, and provide additional support for an extended period of Precambrian metazoan diversification.
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A Ca2+-dependent synaptic vesicle-recycling pathway emanating from the plasma membrane adjacent to the dense body at the active zone has been demonstrated by blocking pinch-off of recycling membrane by using the Drosophila mutant, shibire. Exposure of wild-type Drosophila synapses to low Ca2+/high Mg2+ saline is shown here to block this active zone recycling pathway at the stage in which invaginations of the plasma membrane develop adjacent to the dense body. These observations, in combination with our previous demonstration that exposure to high Ca2+ causes “docked” vesicles to accumulate in the identical location where active zone endocytosis occurs, suggest the possibility that a vesicle-recycling pathway emanating from the active zone may exist that is stimulated by exposure to elevated Ca2+, thereby causing an increase in vesicle recycling, and is suppressed by exposure to low Ca2+ saline, thereby blocking newly forming vesicles at the invagination stage. The presence of a Ca2+-dependent endocytotic pathway at the active zone opens up the following possibilities: (i) electron microscopic omega-shaped images (and their equivalent, freeze fracture dimples) observed at the active zone adjacent to the dense body could represent endocytotic images (newly forming vesicles) rather than exocytotic images; (ii) vesicles observed attached to the plasma membrane adjacent to the dense body could represent newly formed vesicles rather than vesicles “docked” for release of transmitter.
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Widespread interest in producing transgenic organisms is balanced by concern over ecological hazards, such as species extinction if such organisms were to be released into nature. An ecological risk associated with the introduction of a transgenic organism is that the transgene, though rare, can spread in a natural population. An increase in transgene frequency is often assumed to be unlikely because transgenic organisms typically have some viability disadvantage. Reduced viability is assumed to be common because transgenic individuals are best viewed as macromutants that lack any history of selection that could reduce negative fitness effects. However, these arguments ignore the potential advantageous effects of transgenes on some aspect of fitness such as mating success. Here, we examine the risk to a natural population after release of a few transgenic individuals when the transgene trait simultaneously increases transgenic male mating success and lowers the viability of transgenic offspring. We obtained relevant life history data by using the small cyprinodont fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) as a model. Our deterministic equations predict that a transgene introduced into a natural population by a small number of transgenic fish will spread as a result of enhanced mating advantage, but the reduced viability of offspring will cause eventual local extinction of both populations. Such risks should be evaluated with each new transgenic animal before release.
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The onset of X inactivation coincides with accumulation of Xist RNA along the future inactive X chromosome. A recent hypothesis proposed that accumulation is initiated by a promoter switch within Xist. In this hypothesis, an upstream promoter (P0) produces an unstable transcript, while the known downstream promoter (P1) produces a stable RNA. To test this hypothesis, we examined expression and half-life of Xist RNA produced from an Xist transgene lacking P0 but retaining P1. We confirm the previous finding that P0 is dispensable for Xist expression in undifferentiated cells and that P1 can be used in both undifferentiated and differentiated cells. Herein, we show that Xist RNA initiated at P1 is unstable and does not accumulate. Further analysis indicates that the transcriptional boundary at P0 does not represent the 5′ end of a distinct Xist isoform. Instead, P0 is an artifact of cross-amplification caused by a pseudogene of the highly expressed ribosomal protein S12 gene Rps12. Using strand-specific techniques, we find that transcription upstream of P1 originates from the DNA strand opposite Xist and represents the 3′ end of the antisense Tsix RNA. Thus, these data do not support the existence of a P0 promoter and suggest that mechanisms other than switching of functionally distinct promoters control the up-regulation of Xist.
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Data from three previous experiments were analyzed to test the hypothesis that brain waves of spoken or written words can be represented by the superposition of a few sine waves. First, we averaged the data over trials and a set of subjects, and, in one case, over experimental conditions as well. Next we applied a Fourier transform to the averaged data and selected those frequencies with high energy, in no case more than nine in number. The superpositions of these selected sine waves were taken as prototypes. The averaged unfiltered data were the test samples. The prototypes were used to classify the test samples according to a least-squares criterion of fit. The results were seven of seven correct classifications for the first experiment using only three frequencies, six of eight for the second experiment using nine frequencies, and eight of eight for the third experiment using five frequencies.
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NMR analysis and molecular dynamics simulations of d(GGTAATTACC)2 and its complex with a tetrahydropyrimidinium analogue of Hoechst 33258 suggest that DNA minor groove recognition in solution involves a combination of conformational selection and induced fit, rather than binding to a preorganised site. Analysis of structural fluctuations in the bound and unbound states suggests that the degree of induced fit observed is primarily a consequence of optimising van der Waals contacts with the walls of the minor groove resulting in groove narrowing through: (i) changes in base step parameters, including increased helical twist and propeller twist; (ii) changes to the sugar–phosphate backbone conformation to engulf the bound ligand; (iii) suppression of bending modes at the TpA steps. In contrast, the geometrical arrangement of hydrogen bond acceptors on the groove floor appears to be relatively insensitive to DNA conformation (helical twist and propeller twist). We suggest that effective recognition of DNA sequences (in this case an A tract structure) appears to depend to a significant extent on the sequence being flexible enough to be able to adopt the geometrically optimal conformation compatible with the various binding interactions, rather than involving ‘lock and key’ recognition.
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Most higher plants develop severe toxicity symptoms when grown on ammonium (NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}) as the sole nitrogen source. Recently, NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} toxicity has been implicated as a cause of forest decline and even species extinction. Although mechanisms underlying NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} toxicity have been extensively sought, the primary events conferring it at the cellular level are not understood. Using a high-precision positron tracing technique, we here present a cell-physiological characterization of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} acquisition in two major cereals, barley (Hordeum vulgare), known to be susceptible to toxicity, and rice (Oryza sativa), known for its exceptional tolerance to even high levels of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}. We show that, at high external NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} concentration ([NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}]o), barley root cells experience a breakdown in the regulation of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} influx, leading to the accumulation of excessive amounts of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} in the cytosol. Measurements of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} efflux, combined with a thermodynamic analysis of the transmembrane electrochemical potential for NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}, reveal that, at elevated [NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}]o, barley cells engage a high-capacity NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}-efflux system that supports outward NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} fluxes against a sizable gradient. Ammonium efflux is shown to constitute as much as 80% of primary influx, resulting in a never-before-documented futile cycling of nitrogen across the plasma membrane of root cells. This futile cycling carries a high energetic cost (we record a 40% increase in root respiration) that is independent of N metabolism and is accompanied by a decline in growth. In rice, by contrast, a cellular defense strategy has evolved that is characterized by an energetically neutral, near-Nernstian, equilibration of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} at high [NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}]o. Thus our study has characterized the primary events in NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} nutrition at the cellular level that may constitute the fundamental cause of NH\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{4}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document} toxicity in plants.
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The genetic variability at six polymorphic loci was examined within a global collection of 502 isolates of subgroup III, serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis. Nine “genoclouds” were identified, consisting of genotypes that were isolated repeatedly plus 48 descendent genotypes that were isolated rarely. These genoclouds have caused three pandemic waves of disease since the mid-1960s, the most recent of which was imported from East Asia to Europe and Africa in the mid-1990s. Many of the genotypes are escape variants, resulting from positive selection that we attribute to herd immunity. Despite positive selection, most escape variants are less fit than their parents and are lost because of competition and bottlenecks during spread from country to country. Competition between fit genotypes results in dramatic changes in population composition over short time periods.