Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

PRODUCT DATA MANAGEMENT FOR FINNISH SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES - Towards a viable information system concept

Product Data Management (PDM) systems have been utilized within companies since the 1980s. Mainly the PDM systems have been used by large companies. This thesis presents the premise that small and medium-sized companies can also benefit from utilizing the Product Data Management systems. Furthermore, the starting point for the thesis is that the existing PDM systems are either too expensive or do not properly respond to the requirements SMEs have. The aim of this study is to investigate what kinds of requirements and special features SMEs, operating in Finnish manufacturing industry, have towards Product Data Management. Additionally, the target is to create a conceptual model that could fulfill the specified requirements. The research has been carried out as a qualitative case study, in which the research data was collected from ten Finnish companies operating in manufacturing industry. The research data is formed by interviewing key personnel from the case companies. After this, the data formed from the interviews has been processed to comprise a generic set of information system requirements and the information system concept supporting it. The commercialization of the concept is studied in the thesis from the perspective of system development. The aim was to create a conceptual model, which would be economically feasible for both, a company utilizing the system and for a company developing it. For this reason, the thesis has sought ways to scale the system development effort for multiple simultaneous cases. The main methods found were to utilize platform-based thinking and a way to generalize the system requirements, or in other words abstracting the requirements of an information system. The results of the research highlight the special features Finnish manufacturing SMEs have towards PDM. The most significant of the special features is the usage of project model to manage the order-to-delivery –process. This differs significantly from the traditional concepts of Product Data Management presented in the literature. Furthermore, as a research result, this thesis presents a conceptual model of a PDM system, which would be viable for the case companies interviewed during the research. As a by-product, this research presents a synthesized model, found from the literature, to abstract information system requirements. In addition to this, the strategic importance and categorization of information systems within companies has been discussed from the perspective of information system customizations.

Successful new venturing process implemented by the founding entrepreneur: A case of Finnish sawmill industry

The fundamental purpose of this research is to emphasise a founding entrepreneur’s own role in the construction of a successful business story, with the focus being on the analysis of the entrepreneur’s activities. The theoretical section sheds light on the heterogeneous nature of existing performance research and, thereby, opens the way for the behavioural approach research of entrepreneurs in the field of new venture performance research. This research can be seen to be in line with the latest trends in entrepreneurship research, which question the applicability of different organisational theories in entrepreneurship research. For this reason, the founding entrepreneur has been chosen, instead of the company, to be the unit of analysis in this research in order to lighten the link in question while developing and refining new knowledge in the field of entrepreneurship. The empirical section of this research focuses on the entrepreneur’s own actions or behaviours that can be seen to be associated with the company’s success. Although some of these actions may resemble the strategic actions of a company as defined in strategic management literature, these actions taken by the entrepreneur themselves must be distinguished from the different organisational actions. Usually, an entrepreneur makes decisions rather independently, mainly on basis of their own intuition and prevailing market conditions, whereas organisational actions are very systematic, and each decision involves many different people. For this reason, an entrepreneur’s actions must be distinguished from organisational actions. In additional to different action paths, the empirical data collected for this research also offers almost unambiguous proof that the actions taken by an entrepreneur at the different stages of a company’s development do play a crucial role in the success of the companies studied in this research. In this way, it is possible to identify a significant link between the behavioural approach research of entrepreneurs and new venture performance research. Due to a lack of behavioural research into founding entrepreneurs, this research has utilised a qualitative (hermeneutic) research approach. The researcher strove to establish a particularly close connection with the entrepreneurs that were studied here and, thus, understand the actions taken at the different stages of their companies’ development as well as the motives and fundamental purposes of these actions. It would not have been possible to manage such profound data that focuses on causalities by using quantitative methods. In addition to interviews, this research used corporate histories of the companies for collecting some of the research data. These corporate histories can be considered excellent tools for the researcher to obtain a preliminary understanding and can, thereby, be seen to have laid the ground for more in-depth and diverse analyses.

Business models for Finnish biobanks

This study concentrates on developing a suitable business model for Finnish biobanks, with particular emphasis on value creation to stakeholders. The sub-objective of this thesis are to map the commercial possibilities of biobanks and potential barriers for business development. The study approaches the subject from the biobanks’ as well as the stakeholders’ point of view, integrating their hopes and needs considering current and future co-operation into the findings. In 2013 the Biobank Act came into effect, after which six biobanks have been established and several other pending biobank projects are in process. There is relatively little research in regard to the commercial opportunities of this newcomer of the biomedical industry, and particularly in the Finnish markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to partially fill the research gap of the commercial potential of biobanks and particularly outline the problematic elements in developing business. The theoretical framework consists of a few select theories, which depict business modeling and value creation of organizations. The theories are combined to form a synthesis, which best adapts to biobanks, and acts as a backbone for interviews. The empirical part of the study was conducted mainly by seven face-to-face interviews, and complemented by two phone interviews and an e-mail questionnaire with four responses. The findings consist mainly of the participants’ reflections on the potential products and services enabled by consumer genomics, as well as perceptions on different obstacles for biobanks’ business development. The nature of the study is tentative, as biobanks are relatively new organizations in Finland, and their operation models and activities are still molding. The aim is to bring to surface the hopes and concerns of biobanks’ representatives, as well as the representatives of stakeholders, in order to transparently discuss the current situation and suggestions for further development. The study concludes that in principle, the interviewees’ agree on the need for development in order not to waste the potential of biobanks; regardless, the participants emphasize different aspects and subsequently lean on differing methods.

Liquidity Risk in the Finnish Stock Market

This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.