Stolen past: Shattered futures, aboriginal justice in Canada

It is acknowledged that Canada's criminal justice system has some major flaws, particularly with respect to its application to various ethnic subgroups. Aboriginal Canadians are one subgroup particularly sensitive to the problems in the system as is reflected by their disproportionately high rates of criminality and incarceration. Over the past 50 years many programs have been developed and recommendations have been made to alleviate the tensions Aboriginals find within the system. However, the situation today is essentially the same. Aboriginals are still overrepresented within the system and solutions that have been brought forward have had little success in stemming their flow into the system. Blame for Aboriginal mistreatment in the system has been placed at all levels from line police officers to high-level officials and politicians and attempts to resolve problems continue as an on going process. However, many of the recommendations and reforms have revolved around culture conflict. Although this thesis recognizes the importance of culture conflict in the overrepresentation of Aboriginals within the Canadian criminal justice system, it has also recognized that culture conflict alone is not responsible for all the flaws within the system as it pertains to Aboriginals. This thesis is of the opinion that in order for reforms to the criminal justice system to be successful, the context in which the system is operating must also be considered. Variables such as geographic isolation, economic disparity and social/political stability are viewed as operating in conjunction with culture, ultimately influencing Aboriginal treatment within the system. The conclusions drawn from this study confirm that when these factors operate together, the overrepresentation of Aboriginals within the Canadian criminal justice system is inevitable. Thus all three variables, culture conflict (social/political stability being part), geographic isolation and economic disparity must be address within the system if any significant changes in the crime rates or incarceration rates of Aboriginals is to be expected. In addition, primary research indicated the influence of cooperation as a factor in moderating the effects of criminality; not just cooperation among Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals, but also cooperation among differing Aboriginal communities. It was argued that when all these issues are addressed, Aboriginal peoples in Canada will have the strength to repair their shattered futures.

A stochastic dynamic programming approach for pricing options on stock-index futures

The aim of this thesis is to price options on equity index futures with an application to standard options on S&P 500 futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our methodology is based on stochastic dynamic programming, which can accommodate European as well as American options. The model accommodates dividends from the underlying asset. It also captures the optimal exercise strategy and the fair value of the option. This approach is an alternative to available numerical pricing methods such as binomial trees, finite differences, and ad-hoc numerical approximation techniques. Our numerical and empirical investigations demonstrate convergence, robustness, and efficiency. We use this methodology to value exchange-listed options. The European option premiums thus obtained are compared to Black's closed-form formula. They are accurate to four digits. The American option premiums also have a similar level of accuracy compared to premiums obtained using finite differences and binomial trees with a large number of time steps. The proposed model accounts for deterministic, seasonally varying dividend yield. In pricing futures options, we discover that what matters is the sum of the dividend yields over the life of the futures contract and not their distribution.

Gauging the Success of Technical Trading Strategies in the S&P 500 Index Futures Market.

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Prévisions du taux de rendement hebdomadaire d'un contrat futures sur le taux de change dollar américain/ dollar canadien.

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Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.

In Search of Advice for Physicians in Entry-Level Medical Markets

We consider entry-level medical markets for physicians in the United Kingdom. These markets experienced failures which led to the adoption of centralized market mechanisms in the 1960's. However, different regions introduced different centralized mechanisms. We advise physicians who do not have detailed information about the rank-order lists submitted by the other participants. We demonstrate that in each of these markets in a low information environment it is not beneficial to reverse the true ranking of any two acceptable hospital positions. We further show that (i) in the Edinburgh 1967 market, ranking unacceptable matches as acceptable is not profitable for any participant and (ii) in any other British entry-level medical market, it is possible that only strategies which rank unacceptable positions as acceptable are optimal for a physician.

Matching Markets under (In)complete Information

We are the first to introduce incomplete information to centralized many-to-one matching markets such as those to entry-level labor markets or college admissions. This is important because in real life markets (i) any agent is uncertain about the other agents' true preferences and (ii) most entry-level matching is many-to-one (and not one-to-one). We show that for stable (matching) mechanisms there is a strong and surprising link between Nash equilibria under complete information and Bayesian Nash equilibria under incomplete information. That is,given a common belief, a strategy profile is a Bayesian Nash equilibrium under incomplete information in a stable mechanism if and only if, for any true profile in the support of the common belief, the submitted profile is a Nash equilibrium under complete information at the true profile in the direct preference revelation game induced by the stable mechanism. This result may help to explain the success of stable mechanisms in these markets.

Impact of Openness to Trade on Capital Formation in Developed and Emerging Markets: a Comparative Study.

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ITEM : An Integrated Transport Economy Model - Price Elasticities of Freight Transport Demand in Canada : Three Canadian Markets and Four Commodities.

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The role of financial markets in the stabilization and reconstruction of Lebanon.

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