Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Perceiving Prospects Properly

When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner’s curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the preferred action appear to be optimal. The optimal perception patterns share key features with prospect theory, namely, overweighting of small probability events (and corresponding underweighting of high probability events), status quo bias, and reference-dependent S-shaped valuations. These biases arise to correct for the winner’s curse effect.

Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio in Three Emerging Economies

The aim of this paper is to study inequality and deprivations as reflected in the human sex ratio (commonly defined as the number of males per 100 females). The particular focus is on three emerging economies, viz., Russia, India and China. The paper compares and contrasts the experiences of these countries and discusses policy issues. It is noted that while the feminist perspective on the issues surrounding the sex ratio is important, it would be wrong to view these issues always or exclusively through the prism of that perspective . It is also suggested that India and China probably have better prospects of sustained economic growth in the foreseeable future than does Russia.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Molecular biological approaches to the study of vectors in relation to malaria control

To a large extent, control of malaria vectors relies on the elimination of breeding sites and the application of chemical agents. There are increasing problems associated with the use of synthetic insecticides for vector control, including the evolution of resistance, the high cost of developing and registering new insecticides and an awareness of pollution from insecticide residues. These factors have stimulated interest in the application of molecular biology to the study of mosquito vectors of malaria; focussing primarily on two aspects. First, the improvement of existing control measures through the development of simplified DNA probe systems suitable for identification of vectors of malaria. The development of synthetic, non-radioactive DNA probes suitable for identification of species in the Anopheles gambiae complex is described with the aim of defining a simplified methodology wich is suitable for entomologist in the field. The second aspect to be considered is the development of completely novel strategies through the development of completely novel strategies through the genetic manipulation of insect vectors of malaria in order to alter their ability to transmit the disease. The major requirements for producing transgenic mosquitoes are outlined together with the progress wich has been made to date and discussed in relation to the prospects which this type of approach has for the future control of malaria.

Ecology of malaria vectors in the Americas and future direction

The resurgence of malaria in the Americas has renewed interest in Anopheles biology. Anopheles darlingi, An. albimanus, An. nuneztovai and An aquasalis are reconfirmed as major malaria vectors and other species are playing important roles in regional malaria transmission. Adultbiting activity and larval ecology are discussed in detail. Seasonal abundance and daily biting activity of Anopheles vary considerably among species and geographically for the same species. Anopheles albimanus has the least amount of variation in biting activity over its range and An. darlingi has the greatest. All species studied are more exophilic and exophagic than endophilic and endophagic. Anopheles darling is more antropophilic, endophilic and endophagic than other Anophelines. Larval studies remain more descriptive than comprehensive. Research on Anophelines is becoming more integrated and biologists are using new biochemical techniques and ecological principles to answer critical questions. This "pluralization" will help us understand species complexes, population dynamics and malaria transmission. integrated control programs will require more regional, in-depth ecological studies.

V-region-related and -unrelated immunosupression accompanying infections

This paper discusses current evidence for the relationship between polyclonal lymphocyte activation, specific immunossupression with decreased resistance, and autoimmune pathology, that are all often found associated with infections by a variety of virus, bacteria and parasites . The central question of class determination of immune effector activities is considered in the context of the cellular targets for nonspecific mitogenic activities associated with infection. A model is presented to integrate these findings: mitogenens produced by the microorganism or the infected cells are preferentially active on CD5 B cells, the resulting over-production of IL-10 will tend to bias all immune activities in to a Th-2mode of effector functions, with high titers of polyclonal antibodies and litle or no production of gamma IFN and other "inflamatory"lymphokines that often mediate resistance. In turn these conditions allow for parasite persistence and the corresponding long-term disregulation of self-directed immune reactivities, resulting in autoimmunity in the chronic phase. This model would predict that selective immunization with the mitogenic principles involved in desregulation, could stand better chances than strategies of vaccination based on immunopotentiation against othere, functionally neutral antigenic epitopes. It is argued, however, that the complexity of immune responses and their regulation together with our ignorance on the genetic controls of class-determination, offer poor prospects for a scientifically-based, rational development of vaccines in the near future. It is suggested that empirically-based and technologically developed vaccines might suceed, while basic scientific approaches are reinforced and given the time provide a better understanding of those process.

Endemic leishmaniasis in Brazil: future implications

Some predictions are made as to how work on leishmaniaisis and its control will develop in Brazil in the future.

Taxonomy of the genus Leishmania: present and future trends and their implications

The application of different taxonomic methods (Cladistic, Evolutionary Taxonomy and Numerical Taxonomy) to the taxonomy of the Genus Leishmania are reviewed. The major groupings of the most recent classifications obtained using the cladistical approach agree with the major divisions of previous classifications which used traditional taxonomy (Evolutionary Taxonomy). The advantage of the cladistical approach is that it produces cladograms whose branches indicate more accurately levels of relationships between the different taxa. Numerical Taxonomy is useful for identification but not as good as the cladistical approach for classification. The ancient division of this monophyletic genus into two major evolutionary lines supports the use of the subgeneric names Leishmania and Viannia.

Schistosomiasis vaccine development: approaches and prospects

Mounting evidence for acquired immunity to schistosomiasis in humans supports the case for immunological intervention. On the other hand, rapid reinfection poses a threat to younger age groups due to the slow maturation of natural resistance. However, rational approaches, based on advances in immunology and molecular biology, have substantially increased the odds of producing an effective vaccine. Since the parasite cannot replicate in the human host and serious morbidity generally occurs only after a relatively long period of heavy worm burden, complete protection against infection is not essential. The chances of success would increase if more than one of the various host/parasite interphases were targeted, for example reducing morbidity through decreased worm loads as well as through suppression of egg production. Several promising schistosome antigens have now reached an advanced phase of development and are currently undergoing independent confirmatory testing according to a standardized protocol. A few molecules are being contemplated for scaled-up production but, so far, only one has reached the stage of industrial manufacture and safety testing. Since schistosomiasis cannot realistically be controlled by a single approach, vaccination is envisaged to be implemented in conjunction with other means of control, notably chemotherapy.