Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Computation of restoration of ligand response in the random kinetics of a prostate cancer cell signaling pathway

Mutation and/or dysfunction of signaling proteins in the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway are frequently observed in various kinds of human cancer. Consistent with this fact, in the present study, we experimentally observe that the epidermal growth factor (EGF) induced activation profile of MAP kinase signaling is not straightforward dose-dependent in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. To find out what parameters and reactions in the pathway are involved in this departure from the normal dose-dependency, a model-based pathway analysis is performed. The pathway is mathematically modeled with 28 rate equations yielding those many ordinary differential equations (ODE) with kinetic rate constants that have been reported to take random values in the existing literature. This has led to us treating the ODE model of the pathways kinetics as a random differential equations (RDE) system in which the parameters are random variables. We show that our RDE model captures the uncertainty in the kinetic rate constants as seen in the behavior of the experimental data and more importantly, upon simulation, exhibits the abnormal EGF dose-dependency of the activation profile of MAP kinase signaling in PC3 prostate cancer cells. The most likely set of values of the kinetic rate constants obtained from fitting the RDE model into the experimental data is then used in a direct transcription based dynamic optimization method for computing the changes needed in these kinetic rate constant values for the restoration of the normal EGF dose response. The last computation identifies the parameters, i.e., the kinetic rate constants in the RDE model, that are the most sensitive to the change in the EGF dose response behavior in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. The reactions in which these most sensitive parameters participate emerge as candidate drug targets on the signaling pathway. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Central Limit Theorem for truncated heavy tailed Banach valued random vectors

In this paper the question of the extent to which truncated heavy tailed random vectors, taking values in a Banach space, retain the characteristic features of heavy tailed random vectors, is answered from the point of view of the central limit theorem.

Localization of light in coherently amplifying random media

We derive and analyze the statistics of reflection coefficient of light backscattered coherently from an amplifying and disordered optical medium modeled by a spatially random refractive index having a uniform imaginary part in one dimension. We find enhancement of reflected intensity owing to a synergy between wave confinement by Anderson localization and coherent amplification by the active medium. This is not the same as that due to enhanced optical path lengths expected from photon diffusion in the random active medium. Our study is relevant to the physical realizability of a mirrorless laser by photon confinement due to Anderson localization.

Probing the inter-tube transport in aligned and random multiwall carbon nanotubes

The temperature and magnetic field dependence of conductivity has been used to probe the inter-tube transport in multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs). The scanning electron microscopy images show highly aligned and random distribution of MWNTs. The conductivity in aligned carbon nanotube (ACNT) and random carbon nanotube (RCNT) samples at low temperature follows T-1/2 (at T < 8 K) and T-3/4 (at T > 8 K) dependence in accordance with the weak localization and electron-electron (e-e) interaction model. The values of diffusion coefficient in ACNT and RCNT are 0.25 x 10(-2) and 0.71 x 10(-2) cm(2) s(-1), respectively, indicating that larger number of inter-tube junctions in later enhances the bulk transport. The positive magnetoconductance (MC) data in both samples show that the weak localization contribution is dominant. However, the saturation of MC at higher fields and lower temperatures indicate that e-e interaction is quite significant in RCNT. The T-3/4 and T-1/2 dependence of inelastic scattering length (l(in)) in ACNT and RCNT samples show that the inelastic e-e scattering is more important in aligned tubes. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3552911]

An Efficient Random Walk Strategy for Sampling Based Robot Motion Planners

Sampling based planners have been successful in path planning of robots with many degrees of freedom, but still remains ineffective when the configuration space has a narrow passage. We present a new technique based on a random walk strategy to generate samples in narrow regions quickly, thus improving efficiency of Probabilistic Roadmap Planners. The algorithm substantially reduces instances of collision checking and thereby decreases computational time. The method is powerful even for cases where the structure of the narrow passage is not known, thus giving significant improvement over other known methods.

Convergence of Power Control in a Random Channel Environment

In this paper, we study the Foschini Miljanic algorithm, which was originally proposed in a static channel environment. We investigate the algorithm in a random channel environment, study its convergence properties and apply the Gerschgorin theorem to derive sufficient conditions for the convergence of the algorithm. We apply the Foschini and Miljanic algorithm to cellular networks and derive sufficient conditions for the convergence of the algorithm in distribution and validate the results with simulations. In cellular networks, the conditions which ensure convergence in distribution can be easily verified.

Pulsed laser deposition of strontium titanate thin films for dynamic random access memory applications

Polycrystalline strontium titanate (SrTiO3) films were prepared by a pulsed laser deposition technique on p-type silicon and platinum-coated silicon substrates. The films exhibited good structural and dielectric properties which were sensitive to the processing conditions. The small signal dielectric constant and dissipation factor at a frequency of 100 kHz were about 225 and 0.03 respectively. The capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics in metal-insulator-semiconductor structures exhibited anomalous frequency dispersion behavior and a hysteresis effect. The hysteresis in the C-V curve was found to be about 1 V and of a charge injection type. The density of interface states was about 1.79 x 10(12) cm(-2). The charge storage density was found to be 40 fC mu m(-2) at an applied electric field of 200 kV cm(-1). Studies on current-voltage characteristics indicated an ohmic nature at lower voltages and space charge conduction at higher voltages. The films also exhibited excellent time-dependent dielectric breakdown behavior.

Reproductive phenology of a tropical dry forest in Mudumalai, Southern India

1 Flowering and fruiting phenologies of a tropical dry forest in Mudumalai, southern India, were studied between April 1988 and August 1990. Two sites, a wetter site I receiving 1100mm and a drier site II receiving 600mm of rainfall annually, are compared. A total of 286 trees from 38 species at site I and 167 trees from 27 species at site II was marked for phenological observations. There were 11 species common to the two sites. Several hypotheses relating to the evolution of reproductive phenology are tested. 2 Frequency of species flowering attained a peak at site I during the dry season but at site II, where soil moisture may be limiting during the dry months, the peak was during the wet season. At both sites a majority of species flushed leaves and flowered simultaneously. Among various guilds, the bird-pollinated guild showed distinct dry season flowering, which may be related to better advertisement of large flowers to pollinators during the leafless dry phase. The wind-pollinated guild flowered mainly during the wet season, when wind speeds are highest and favourable for pollen transport. The insect-pollinated guild showed no seasonality in flowering in site I but a wet season flowering in site II. 3 Fruiting frequency attained a peak in site I during the late wet season extending into the early dry season; a time-lag correlation showed that fruiting followed rainfall with a lag of about two months. Site II showed a similar fruiting pattern but this was not statistically significant. The dispersal guilds (animal, wind, and explosive passively-dispersed) did not show any clear seasonality in fruiting, except for the animal-dispersed guild which showed wet season fruiting in site I. 4 Hurlbert's overlap index was also calculated in order to look at synchrony in flowering and fruiting irrespective of climatic (dry and wet month) seasonality. In general, overlap in flowering and fruiting guilds was high because of seasonal aggregation. Among the exceptions, at site II the wind-pollinated flowering guild did not show significant overlap between species although flowering aggregated in the wet season. This could be due to the need to avoid heterospecific pollen transfer. 5 Rarer species tended to flower earlier in the dry season and this again could be an adaptation to avoid the risk of heterospecific pollen transfer or competition for pollinators. The more abundant species flowered mainly during the wet season. Species which flower earlier have larger flowers and, having invested more energy in flowers, also have shorter flower to fruit durations.

Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems

The problem of estimating the time-dependent statistical characteristics of a random dynamical system is studied under two different settings. In the first, the system dynamics is governed by a differential equation parameterized by a random parameter, while in the second, this is governed by a differential equation with an underlying parameter sequence characterized by a continuous time Markov chain. We propose, for the first time in the literature, stochastic approximation algorithms for estimating various time-dependent process characteristics of the system. In particular, we provide efficient estimators for quantities such as the mean, variance and distribution of the process at any given time as well as the joint distribution and the autocorrelation coefficient at different times. A novel aspect of our approach is that we assume that information on the parameter model (i.e., its distribution in the first case and transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the second) is not available in either case. This is unlike most other work in the literature that assumes availability of such information. Also, most of the prior work in the literature is geared towards analyzing the steady-state system behavior of the random dynamical system while our focus is on analyzing the time-dependent statistical characteristics which are in general difficult to obtain. We prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic approximation scheme in each case to the true value of the quantity being estimated. We provide a general class of strongly consistent estimators for the aforementioned statistical quantities with regular sample average estimators being a specific instance of these. We also present an application of the proposed scheme on a widely used model in population biology. Numerical experiments in this framework show that the time-dependent process characteristics as obtained using our algorithm in each case exhibit excellent agreement with exact results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional linearization in nonlinear random vibration

In this paper, an improved probabilistic linearization approach is developed to study the response of nonlinear single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems under narrow-band inputs. An integral equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the envelope is derived. This equation is solved using an iterative scheme. The technique is applied to study the hardening type Duffing's oscillator under narrow-band excitation. The results compare favorably with those obtained using numerical simulation. In particular, the bimodal nature of the PDF for the response envelope for certain parameter ranges is brought out.